In an election for US House of Representatives in California’s 11th Congressional District today, 19 days until votes are counted, incumbent Democrat Jerry McNerney defeats Republican businessman Dean Andal 52% to 41%, according to this exclusive KPIX-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

Among men, McNerney leads by 2 points; among women, McNerney leads by 18.
Among voters age 18 to 49, McNerney leads by 5; among voters 50+, McNerney leads by 17.
McNerney leads Andal by single digits among white voters and by double-digits among minorities. Should minorities vote in smaller numbers than SurveyUSA here forecasts, McNerney’s support may be overstated.

Early voting began in California on October 6. McNerney leads by 11 points among both those who have told SurveyUSA they have already voted and those who SurveyUSA has identified as being likely to vote.