In an election for the US House of Representatives from Kentucky’s 3rd Congressional District today, 19 days until the vote, Democratic incumbent John Yarmuth defeats former Republican representative Anne Northup 57% to 40%, according to this exclusive WHAS-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released five weeks ago, Yarmuth is up 4 points; Northup is down 4 points. Compared to the first SurveyUSA poll on this race, released four months ago, Yarmuth is exactly even with where he began; Northup is up 1 point from her starting point.

Yarmuth takes a majority of the vote among men and women, young and old, white and black. Yarmuth takes 85% of Democratic votes; Northup takes 85% of Republican votes; Independents break 5:4 for for Yarmuth.

Yarmuth defeated Northup by 3 points, 51% to 48%, in 2006. Since 2005, Northup has run for Governor of Kentucky and lost in the GOP primary to then incumbent Ernie Fletcher. Northup represented Kentucky’s 3rd district for 5 terms, first elected in 1996. In 2004, Northup won with 60% of the vote. The district is watched nationally as a barometer of how other districts may vote.