In an election for US House of Representatives from Pennsylvania’s 11th Congressional District today, Election Eve, Republican challenger Lou Barletta has a slight advantage over incumbent 12-term Democrat Paul Kanjorski, according to SurveyUSA polling for Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill. Barletta gets 51% today, Kanjorski 45%. To save the seat, Kanjorski needs exceptional turnout from younger voters. And Kanjorski needs fewer defections from Democrats. Barletta leads among voters age 35+. And Barletta siphons 28% of Democrats to the GOP.
Barletta has a Plus 15 Favorability. Kanjorski has a Minus 4 Favorability. John McCain has a Plus 5 Favorability. Barack Obama has a Plus 12 Favorability. Obama carries the district by 10 points. Barletta runs 8 points stronger than John McCain. Kanjorski runs 8 points weaker than Obama. 700 registered voters were interviewed 10/30/08 through 11/02/08 using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 622 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before election day.