24 hours till votes are counted in the Primary for Mayor of Seattle, a runoff is certain, with 2 of 3 tightly bunched candidates advancing. But which 2? At this hour, among all likely voters, incumbent Mayor Mike Nickels gets 26%, businessman Joe Mallahan gets 22%, community organizer Mike McGinn 21%. Those numbers are close-enough in a low-turnout municipal election to characterize the contest as a jump-ball. Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot in this 100% vote-by-mail election, the finish is Nickels 27%, Mallahan 25%, McGinn 23%. See this SurveyUSA interactive tracking graph to study movement among all likely voters. Research conducted for KING-TV Seattle.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 10 days ago, McGinn is up 6 points, from 15% then to 21% now. Mallahan is up 3 points, from 19% to 22%. Nickels is up 4 points, from 22% to 26%. Nickels’ and McGinn’s support is young. Mallahan’s support is old. Nickels’ support is disproportionately Democrat. Mallahan and McGinn do well among Independents.

Full results can be found here .