Challenger Michael Kearns has a chance to win Tuesday’s Democratic Primary for Mayor of Buffalo NY, but incumbent Byron Brown appears to have the better chance as a spirited campaign enters its final day. Brown gets 51%, Kearns 44%, in SurveyUSA’s final poll for WGRZ-TV. The electorate is sharply divided along racial lines and across income levels, and any mis-measurement of the size of the relative constituencies could result in an upset. Brown, who is black, gets 90% of the black vote. Kearns, who is white, gets two thirds of the white vote, but loses one-third to Brown. Brown runs strong among lower-income voters, who make up half of the electorate. Kearns does well among higher-income voters, but they make up just one fifth of the electorate. There is volatility among men, who in an identical SurveyUSA poll 10 ago days backed Kearns 5:4, but today back Brown 5:4. Kearns cannot win if he does not carry men. Brown leads among women. There is volatility among younger voters, where the contest has sea-sawed in the final week. Voters who say “jobs” are the most important issues in the election back Brown 2:1. Blacks make-up 32% of likely primary voters, in SurveyUSA’s turnout model. For every 1 percentage point black turnout increases, above 32%, Brown’s vote total goes up by approximately 1 percentage point. If blacks make up 34% of likely primary voters, instead of the 32% SurveyUSA here sees, Brown may be atop Kearns by 9 points. If instead blacks make-up 36% of likely primary voters, Brown may be atop Kearns by 11 points. But: for every percentage point that black turnout is lower than the 32% SurveyUSA here sees, Brown goes down a point and Kearns goes up a point. An identical SurveyUSA poll released 09/04/09, showed Brown 48%, Kearns 47%. Since that time, the two candidates have debated publicly, and both candidates have been in the spotlight.

Full results can be found here.