Final Look at NYC Democratic Primary
There is little question who will face incumbent Republican Mayor Michael Bloomberg in the November general election, according to this final pre-primary poll conducted by SurveyUSA for WABC-TV, but the outcome of the Comptroller and Public Advocate races — and the date on which those outcomes will be known — is less clear.
In the Public Advocate contest, Mark Green finishes first, 09/14/09, Primary Eve, with 33%, ten points atop city council member Bill De Blasio, 16 points atop city council member Eric Gioia. In 5 SurveyUSA tracking polls for WABC-TV, Green has led by 32 points, then 19, then 14, then 16, and now 10. In the past 3 days, De Blasio is up 3, Green is down 3. Gioia and fourth-place finisher Norman Siegel, former director of the New York Civil Liberties Union, are flat. Green is shy of the 40% threshold needed to avoid a runoff. But 10% of SurveyUSA’s likely primary voters are undecided. Depending on how these 10% break, and depending on who turns out 09/15/09, the winner may reach 40%, or fall short. If no one candidate reaches 40%, the top two finishers compete in a 09/30/09 runoff.
The Democratic battle for NYC Comptroller ends with John Liu at 37% and consolidating support. Liu is up 3 points over the weekend, up 12 points over the past 12 days. 12% of SurveyUSA’s likely voters are undecided, and when those are factored into the candidates’ totals, Liu has a chance to top the 40% threshold needed to avoid a 09/30/09 runoff. Liu’s fellow city council members David Yassky and Melinda Katz tie for a distant second place. SurveyUSA’s exclusive interactive tracking graphs highlight Liu’s rise among middle-income voters and among voters in Queens.
In the race for Mayor of New York, Bill Thompson defeats Tony Avella decisively. City council member Avella’s 20% showing in today’s release is his best since SurveyUSA polling began; one month ago, Avella was at 11%.
Full results of this poll can be found here .









