In a Democratic primary for US Senate, Dan Mongiardo may or may not hold off a late charge from Jack Conway, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for the Louisville Courier-Journal and WHAS-TV. Mongiardo is at 38%, Conway 37%, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. With 12% of voters undecided and 3 other candidates in the race, any outcome is possible. Lt. Governor Mongiardo led by 18 points when SurveyUSA polling began 2 months ago; 1 month ago, Conway had closed to within 3. In greater Louisville, Conway’s lead has consistently grown, from 8 points in March to 22 points in April to 31 points today. Eastern Kentucky has favored and still favors Mongiardo 3:1. Western Kentucky breaks 4:3 Mongiardo. North Central KY splits. More educated, more affluent, more pro-choice voters back Conway. Gun owners, pro-life voters and those who attend church back Mongiardo. Support for James Buckmaster, Darlene Price and Maurice Sweeney may dissipate on Election Day. Where these voters go could determine who faces Republican nominee Rand Paul in November.

In a Republican Primary for US Senate, 5 days to the Primary, Rand Paul defeats Trey Grayson 49% to 33%. Paul has led wire-to-wire. His constituency is educated, affluent and religious. Grayson, KY’s Secretary of State, is below 40% among every demographic group, and trails by double digits in all regions of the state save Eastern Kentucky, where he and Paul are even.