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CA: GOP Whitman Narrowly Atop Brown For Governor; Fiorina & Boxer In Tight Fight for US Senate.

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 07/13/10 09:45 AM

In an election for Governor of California today, Republican Meg Whitman edges Democrat Jerry Brown 46% to 39%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. Brown, currently California’s Attorney General, leads 2:1 in the Bay Area, trails in the rest of the state. Whitman, former CEO of eBay, leads among men and affluent voters. The Republican holds 77% of Republican voters. The Democrat holds 64% of Democrats. Independents break 5:4 Republican. Question 1 and 2 on this report show the identical data. Question 1 collapses 9 minor party candidates and “undecided” voters into a single “other / undecided” category. Respondents were asked the “who will you vote for” for Governor question once.

In the race for United States Senate, Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer and Republican Carly Fiorina are effectively even. Fiorina 47%, Boxer 45%, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. Twice as many Democrats cross-over to vote Republican as Republicans who cross-over to vote Democrat. The Republican has an ever-so-slight advantage in Greater Los Angeles and in the Central Valley. The Republican carries the Inland Empire 2:1. The Democrat carries the Bay Area 2:1. Question 3 and 4 on this report show the identical data. Question 3 collapses 6 minor party candidates and “undecided” voters into a single “other / undecided” category. Respondents were asked the “who will you vote for” for US Senate question once.

Proposition 19, which would legalize marijuana, and allow marijuana to be regulated and taxed in California, is supported narrowly today. Ballot measures are difficult to poll; opposition to many ballot measures increases as election day approaches. Voter reaction to Proposition 19 can be expected to shift as both sides begin to advertise the pros and cons of passage. Today: The youngest voters support. The oldest voters oppose. Democrats and Independents support. Republicans oppose.

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