In an election today for the open US House of Representatives seat in Washington State’s 3rd Congressional District, Republican Jaime Herrera is 4:3 atop Democrat Denny Heck, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle.

Herrera has a broad constituency, and has an early advantage among both men and women, young and old. Moderates break 5:4 Democrat, but Independents break 5:3 Republican. When the sub-populations are combined, it’s Herrera 54%, Heck 41%. Herrera, a member of the State House of Representatives, gets 9 of 10 Republican votes; Heck, a former State House Majority Leader, holds 8 of 10 Democrats. Since 1960, the 3rd District has been held by a Republican for only 2 terms, from 1995 to 1999. Incumbent Democrat Brian Baird, elected in 1998, is not seeking a 7th term. In a 6-person primary 08/17/10, Heck defeated Herrera 31% to 28%. In that primary, 54% of votes went to a Republican, 42% of votes went to a Democrat.