In an election for Louisville Metro Mayor today, 08/31/10, Republican Hal Heiner and Democrat Greg Fischer finish effectively even, according to this latest exclusive Louisville Courier-Journal Bluegrass / WHAS-TV Poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

Today, it’s Fischer 47%, Heiner 45%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released one month ago, the race is essentially unchanged, with Heiner flat and Fischer up a nominal 2 points. There is some movement among demographic subgroups, but most of the movement that does exist is offsetting, with gains for Heiner among the youngest voters offset by gains for Fischer among the oldest. Heiner, a Metro Councilman, continues to lead by double digits among men — by 12 points today, down from a 17-point lead last month. Fischer, a 2008 candidate for US Senate, continues to lead among double digits among women — by 16 points today, slightly down from an 18-point lead last month. Put together, it yields a significant 28-point gender gap. White voters continue to narrowly favor Heiner; black voters continue to strongly favor Fischer. One piece of movement does appear favorable toward Fischer: one month ago, Fischer led by 48 points among Democrats, while Heiner led by 74 points among Republicans. Today, Heiner’s GOP lead has dipped ever-so-slightly, to 69 points, while Fischer’s lead among Democrats has increased to 60 points.

Turnout will be critical in determining the winner, and it is conceivable either candidate could be pulled into office by the coattails of the US Senate candidate from his party.