In an election for United States House of Representatives in Kentucky’s 3rd Congressional District today, 09/01/10, two months till votes are counted, Democratic incumbent John Yarmuth and Republican Todd Lally finish effectively even, according to this latest exclusive Louisville Courier-Journal Bluegrass / WHAS-TV Poll conducted by SurveyUSA. A Republican take-away in this district would increase the Republican chances of recapturing control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Today, Yarmuth gets 47% of the vote; Lally gets 45%, a result within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. Among men, Lally leads by 13 points; among women, Yarmuth leads by 18 — a 31-point gender gap. Lally leads among the youngest, least reliable voters. Yarmuth leads among older, more reliable voters. Lally leads 5:4 among whites; Yarmuth leads 5:1 among blacks. If black turnout is higher than the 15% of likely voters that SurveyUSA shows here, the Democrat will out-perform these numbers. If black turnout is lower, the Democrat will under-perform these numbers. Each candidate holds roughly 8 of 10 partisan votes; Independents favor the Republican.

Yarmuth, first elected in 2006 with 51% of the vote, is seeking a third term. He won with 59% in 2008. Lally is a commercial pilot and Lieutenant Colonel in the Kentucky Air National Guard.