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Some Drama in Kansas Attorney General Contest, But Otherwise, GOP Poised to Run the Table in 2010 Statewide Contests

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 10/14/10 08:27 AM

In elections for statewide offices in Kansas today, 10/13/10, Republican candidates defeat their Democratic opponents in 4 of 5 contests polled by SurveyUSA exclusively for KWCH-TV in Wichita.

For Governor, US Senator Sam Brownback and running mate Jeff Colyer today defeat Democrats Tom Holland and Kelly Kultala 60% to 32%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 3 weeks ago, the contest is unchanged.

In the race to replace Republican Brownback in the US Senate, Republican Jerry Moran today defeats Democrat Lisa Johnston by 40 points, 67% to 27%. Moran, who represents Kansas’ 1st Congressional District, in the western and central parts of the state, leads 8:1 in western Kansas, 2:1 in the rest of the state. Johnston, a college professor, leads only among Democrats, liberals, and those with unfavorable opinions of the Tea Party.

For Secretary of State, Republican Kris Kobach today defeats incumbent Democrat Chris Biggs by 18 points, 53% to 35%, up a nominal point from 3 weeks ago. Biggs had gained ground between SurveyUSA’s August and September polls, but that momentum now appears to have stalled.

In the Attorney General race, Republican Derek Schmidt today edges incumbent Democrat Steve Six 48% to 40%; the Republican’s 8-point lead is the party’s smallest in the 5 races polled, and represents a nominal 1-point tightening from the previous poll, when Schmidt led by 9. Two months ago, when polling began, Schmidt led by 20 points. Six appears to have continued momentum among men, where he has trailed by 24, 19, and now by 7 points, and among voters under age 50, where he has trailed by 36, 25, and now by 10 points. In Northeastern Kansas, Six had trailed by 14 and 10 points, and now ties Schmidt. Schmidt has offset these changes with gains of his own among women, older voters, and in other parts of the state. Compared to other, stable Kansas statewide contests, there is notable volatility in the Attorney General race, uniquely; any outcome is possible.

The race for State Treasurer has also tightened slightly, with Republican Ron Estes today defeating incumbent Democrat Dennis McKinney 55% to 39%, a 16-point lead. 3 weeks ago, McKinney led by 21 points; 2 months ago, McKinney led by 29. Estes, like Six, is making inroads among men, where he had trailed by 36 points and now trails by 17.

Full results of this poll can be found here .

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