In an election for the open US House of Representatives seat in Kansas’ 4th Congressional District today, 10/29/10, Republican Mike Pompeo defeats Democrat Raj Goyle 54% to 38%, according to this latest exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for KWCH-TV Wichita.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 3 weeks ago, little has changed; Pompeo is up a nominal point, Goyle down 2. In 4 SurveyUSA polls going back to mid-August, Pompeo has led by 7, 10, 13, and now by 16 points. Goyle, who initially held the nominal lead among women, has steadily lost ground and today trails by 8 points among female voters. Among voters age 50+, Goyle once led by 10, now trails by 12, a 22-point swing since August. Goyle remains ahead 4:1 among Democrats and ties Pompeo among Independents, but Pompeo’s 4:1 lead among the larger number of Republicans in KS-04 seals this deal.

Incumbent Republican Todd Tiahrt, first elected in 1994, did not run for re-election to the US House in order to run in the Republican primary for US Senate, where he was defeated by KS-01 Representative Jerry Moran.