In CA on Election Eve, Women Solidify Opposition to Prop 19; Even the Greater San Francisco Bay Area No Longer Supports Legal Marijuana

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 11/01/10 04:17 PM

On Election Eve, California remains divided on Proposition 19, with women opposing the measure now more than at any point during the campaign and support in the greater San Francisco Bay Area no greater than opposition, according to SurveyUSA’s 8th and final pre-election tracking poll , conducted for KABC-TV in Los Angeles, KPIX-TV in San Francisco, KGTV-TV in San Diego, and KFSN-TV in Fresno. “No” has 46%, “Yes” has 44% at the wire, unchanged from SurveyUSA’s penultimate poll 1 week ago, and still within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. Yet: momentum is with “No.”Among voters interviewed by SurveyUSA on their home telephones, 19 is opposed 53% to 43%.

Among voters who do not have a home phone and who were interviewed on their cellphones, 19 is supported almost 2:1. When the groups are proportionally blended, opposition slightly outweighs support. Arguing against passage is this: among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, 19 is opposed 57% to 39%. Support is strongest among those who have not yet voted and who, ultimately, may or may not. In SurveyUSA’s 1st tracking poll on marijuana, 4 months ago, women supported l9 by 7 points. On election eve, women oppose 51% to 40%. In the Bay Area, “Yes” led by 30 points a month ago, now is tied. Voters are split in all regions of the state now. Democrats supported by 30 points in August, but now by only 10.

In the race for US Senate, Republican challenger Carly Fiorina finishes with her lowest poll numbers of the campaign, down from 48% 2 months ago to 38% today. Incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer ends at 46%. Boxer has polled at 46% or higher in 5 of 8 SurveyUSA tracks. Boxer leads by 8 among those interviewed on their home phones, leads by 22 among CPO’s, trails by 6 among those who have both cell and home phones. When the three groups are proportionally blended, Boxer leads by 8. If the percentage of CPO voters is less than the 19% SurveyUSA models here, Fiorina will outperform these numbers. If the percentage of CPO voters is greater than the 19% SurveyUSA models here, Boxer will outperform these numbers.

In the race for Lieutenant Governor, the contest remains close among those who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, with Democrat Gavin Newsom’s support heavier among those who have not yet returned a ballot. When the two groups are blended, the Democrat leads 42% to 35%. Incumbent Republican Abel Maldonado runs strong in the Inland Empire and the Central Valley, but trails the Democrat in the more populated regions of the state. Newsom has narrow advantages among both men and women, young and old.

In the race for Governor, Republican Meg Whitman ends at 37%, her lowest support in 8 tracking polls going back 4 months. Democrat Jerry Brown ends at 48%, his highest support in 8 tracking polls going back 4 months. Among those with a college degree, Whitman started 6 ahead of Brown, ends 12 behind, an 18-point swing during the campaign. In July, Whitman and Brown were even among California’s moderates. At the wire, Brown ends with a 5:3 advantage.

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