In a ranked-choice election for San Francisco mayor today, 03/16/2011, 5 months before the filing deadline and 8 months before before votes are counted, 5 declared candidates are clustered in the race to fill the open seat vacated by Mayor Gavin Newsom, who was elected Lieutenant Governor of California. Research conducted exclusively for CBS-5, KPIX-TV.
Interim Mayor Ed Lee, who so far says he is not running, gets the largest number of 1st-choice votes, 17%. Lee’s support is disproportionately older, moderate, and Asian. Behind Lee, 5 declared candidates receive 8 to 12 percent of 1st-choice votes. There is no meaningful statistical difference among the following 1st-place votes; each of these candidates is effectively even:
* Michaela Alioto-Pier, former Board of Supervisors member, 12%.
* Leeland Yee, State Senator, 11%.
* David Chiu, Board of Supervisors President, 10%.
* Dennis Herrera, City Attorney, 9%.
* Bevan Dufty, former Supervisor, 8%
* 1/3 of likely voters choose some other another candidate or are undecided.
* Alioto-Pier’s support and Herrera’s support is disproportionately Hispanic.
* Alioto-Pier does better with lower-income voters. Herrera does better with upper-income voters.
* Leland Yee’s support and Chiu’s support is disproportionately Asian.
* Leland Yee does better with Conservatives and women. Chiu does better with men and college grads.
* Dufty’s support is disproportionately white and middle-aged.
Should Ed Lee not run, where do his votes go?
* 24% of those who vote for Lee as 1st choice, vote for Chiu as 2nd choice.
* 19% of those who vote for Ed Lee as 1st choice, vote for Alioto-Pier as 2nd choice.
* 15% of those who vote for Ed Lee as 1st choice, vote for Herrera as 2nd choice.