3 months until votes are counted in Kentucky, Incumbent Democrat Steve Beshear leads Republican challenger David Williams 2:1, according to a SurveyUSA poll  conducted for the Courier-Journal newspaper and WHAS-TV in Louisville.

25% of Republicans cross-over to vote Democrat. 21% of Tea Party members cross-over to vote Democrat. Just 56% of Republican voters back the Republican candidate. When the demographic groups are added up, it’s Beshear 52%, Williams 28%, a 24-point advantage for the Democrat in a state that in 2010 elected a Tea Party candidate to the U.S. Senate. Independent Gatewood Galbraith gets 9% in an election for Governor today, 07/28/11.

Beshear, elected in 2007 with 59% of the vote, is strong in greater Louisville, where he gets 61% of the vote, among moderates, where he gets 65%, among women, where he gets 57%, among seniors, where he gets 59%, and among pro-choice voters, where he gets 70% of the vote. Williams carries conservatives, but barely.

* Beshear has a Plus 27 Favorability Rating, impressive in a climate where some blame Democrats for the country’s lingering wars and weak economy.
* Williams has a Minus 15 Favorability Rating.

This survey includes cell phone respondents and landline respondents. SurveyUSA interviewed 800 Kentucky adults 07/22/11 through 07/27/11. Of the adults, 689 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 512 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/11 Gubernatorial election. This survey was conducted multi-mode, to ensure that those who do not have a home telephone (and who make and receive calls on a cell phone) are included in the survey. Respondents who do not have a home telephone (26% of KY adults, 24% of likely voters in these results) responded to SurveyUSA questions on their mobile phone or other electronic device. Beshear’s lead among cell phone respondents is 27 points.