Obama 46%, Romney 44% in Nationwide SurveyUSA Poll; Cell-Phone Respondents Are Difference Between Re-Election and Democrat Defeat
In a nationwide election for President today, 11/16/11, incumbent Democrat Barack Obama narrowly edges Republican challenger Mitt Romney, 46% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 1,000 registered voters. If the survey only includes landline (home-phone) respondents, Romney wins.Among respondents who use a home telephone (72% of registered voters), Romney leads by 6 points.
Among respondents who do not use a home telephone (28% of registered voters), and who were contacted by SurveyUSA on their cell phone or other electronic device, Obama leads by 22 points. When the two populations are proportionally blended, Obama is up by 2 points, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error.
When Obama is paired head-to-head against Newt Gingrich, Obama is up by 11 points, 51% to 40%. Gingrich trails Obama only by 2 points among respondents who use a home telephone, but trails by 35 points among respondents who do not use a home telephone. When the two populations are proportionally blended, Obama is up by 11.
Independents significantly affect outcome: When Obama is paired against Romney, independent voters split 43% to 43%. When Obama is paired against Gingrich, independent voters break 5:3 Democrat.