With Voting Underway In WA01 Open Primary, Koster Certain To Advance to General; DelBene Battling Burner for 2nd Runoff Spot
Two weeks until votes are counted in the Primary in Washington state’s newly redrawn 1st congressional district, Republican John Koster is certain to advance to a November general election, but it is unclear which of 2 Democrats he will oppose, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV in Seattle. Suzan DelBene has 17% and momentum today, which may or may not be enough for her to overtake Darcy Burner, who has 13% today.
Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 2 months ago, Koster is down 8 points, Burner is down 6 points, DelBene is up 13 points. 80% of Republicans and 39% of Independents vote for Koster. Democrats split, 32% today vote for DelBene, 25% vote for Burner. Among Democrats, compared to 2 months ago, DelBene is up 21 points, Burner is down 20 points. Among women, compared to 2 months ago, DelBene is up 16 points, Burner is down 2. Among liberals, Burner had led DelBene by 34 points; the two are now tied.
* Koster has a Plus 14 Net Favorability rating. (28 favorable; 14 unfavorable).
* DelBene has a Minus 2 Net Favorability rating (23 favorable; 25 unfavorable).
* Burner has a Minus 10 Net Favorability (19 favorable, 29 unfavorable).
Looking ahead to a November general election, Koster would face a fierce fight from either Democrat:
* Koster gets 44% today to Burner’s 42%.
* Koster gets 42% today to DelBene’s 42%.
* Those findings noted, there is movement on the question of whether a Democrat or a Republican would do a better job of representing the district. 2 months ago, voters said by 50% to 39% that a Republican would do a better job. Today, voters by 43% to 40% say a Democrat would do a better job.
Upticket, the district is split. Democrat Barack Obama leads Republican Mitt Romney 50% to 40% in WA01 today, but Republican Rob McKenna narrowly edges Democrat Jay Inslee 46% to 44% in the contest for WA Governor.
Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 registered voters from Washington state’s newly drawn 1st congressional district, using registration based (voter-list) sample from Aritstotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 563 were determined by SurveyUSA to have either already returned a ballot or to be likely to do so before the 08/07/12 deadline. This survey was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (80% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (20% of likely voters) were contacted by live operators, who hand-dialed cell phones, interviewed the respondents, asked the questions, recorded the answers, and remained on the line until the interview was complete. The U.S. House seat is vacant; Democrat Jay Inslee has resigned to run for Governor of Washington.