With Voting Underway In WA01 Open Primary, Koster Certain To Advance to General; DelBene Battling Burner for 2nd Runoff Spot

SurveyUSA Operations - 07/31/12 10:04 AM

Two weeks until votes are counted in the Primary in Washington state’s newly redrawn 1st congressional district, Republican John Koster is certain to advance to a November general election, but it is unclear which of 2 Democrats he will oppose, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV in Seattle. Suzan DelBene has 17% and momentum today, which may or may not be enough for her to overtake Darcy Burner, who has 13% today.

Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 2 months ago, Koster is down 8 points, Burner is down 6 points, DelBene is up 13 points. 80% of Republicans and 39% of Independents vote for Koster. Democrats split, 32% today vote for DelBene, 25% vote for Burner. Among Democrats, compared to 2 months ago, DelBene is up 21 points, Burner is down 20 points. Among women, compared to 2 months ago, DelBene is up 16 points, Burner is down 2. Among liberals, Burner had led DelBene by 34 points; the two are now tied.

Koster has a Plus 14 Net Favorability rating. (28 favorable; 14 unfavorable).
DelBene has a Minus 2 Net Favorability rating (23 favorable; 25 unfavorable).
Burner has a Minus 10 Net Favorability (19 favorable, 29 unfavorable).

Looking ahead to a November general election, Koster would face a fierce fight from either Democrat:

Koster gets 44% today to Burner’s 42%.
Koster gets 42% today to DelBene’s 42%.
Those findings noted, there is movement on the question of whether a Democrat or a Republican would do a better job of representing the district. 2 months ago, voters said by 50% to 39% that a Republican would do a better job. Today, voters by 43% to 40% say a Democrat would do a better job.

Upticket, the district is split. Democrat Barack Obama leads Republican Mitt Romney 50% to 40% in WA01 today, but Republican Rob McKenna narrowly edges Democrat Jay Inslee 46% to 44% in the contest for WA Governor.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 registered voters from Washington state’s newly drawn 1st congressional district, using registration based (voter-list) sample from Aritstotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 563 were determined by SurveyUSA to have either already returned a ballot or to be likely to do so before the 08/07/12 deadline. This survey was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (80% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (20% of likely voters) were contacted by live operators, who hand-dialed cell phones, interviewed the respondents, asked the questions, recorded the answers, and remained on the line until the interview was complete. The U.S. House seat is vacant; Democrat Jay Inslee has resigned to run for Governor of Washington.

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