In Florida, 8 Weeks Out: Obama 4 Points Atop Romney; Nelson 11 Points Atop Mack; Voter Fraud of Greater Concern than Voter Suppression
In pivotal Florida, Barack Obama comes out of the Democratic National Convention 4 points atop Mitt Romney, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Romney leads among Florida’s white voters, but that lead is erased by Florida’s minorities: Obama leads by 16 points among Cubans, by 36 points among non-Cuban Hispanics, and by 67 points among African Americans.
Romney leads by 5 points among men, but that is trumped by Obama’s 12 point lead among women. Romney leads in Northwest, Northeast and Southwest Florida, but that advantage is overcome by Obama’s strength in Southeast Florida, and Obama’s comparative strong standing in critical Central FL, where Obama today leads by 6. Romney leads among voters age 50+, but Obama leads by even more among voters age 18 to 49. Party affiliation cancels itself out: Romney holds 84% of Republicans, Obama holds 84% of Democrats, Independents split. Obama leads among those earning less than $80,000 a year, Romney leads among those earning more than $80,000 a year.
Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 8 weeks ago, conducted at a time when Obama attack ads about Bain Capital were airing unanswered, there is effectively no change in the race. Then, Obama led by 5 points. Now, Obama leads by 4 points, a nominal 1-point difference. Obama today has a Plus 1 Net Favorability, Romney has a Minus 2 Net Favorability.
In the contest for United States Senator, Democrat Bill Nelson is in dramatically better shape than he was when SurveyUSA last polled the contest 8 weeks ago. Then, Republican Connie Mack led Nelson by 6 points. Today, Nelson leads Mack by 11, a 17-point left turn. The change is particularly dramatic in Central FL, where, 8 weeks ago, Mack led by 5, now trails by 15, a 20-point swing. Among Independents, Mack had led by 4, now trails by 14, an 18-point swing.
Nelson today has a 19-point advantage among women, and leads in every age group. Just 69% of Republicans and 68% of Conservatives support Mack. Nelson has a Plus 7 Net Favorability today, compared to Mack who has a Minus 12 Net Favorability.
When Florida voters are asked whether “voter fraud” or “voter suppression” is a more serious problem in Florida, 45% (disproportionately Republicans and conservatives) say fraud. 33% (disproportionately blacks, Cubans and liberals) say suppression.
Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 Florida adults 09/07/12 through 09/09/12. Of the adults, 650 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 596 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (76% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (24% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.