In an election for Ohio’s 18 vital electoral votes today, 10/09/12, one week after Buckeye voting began and 4 weeks till votes are counted, Barack Obama is at 45% to Mitt Romney’s 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV, NBC4 in Columbus. Obama’s advantage is within the survey’s possible sources of error and may or may not be significant.
* “Optimistic” Ohio voters back Obama 4:1. “Worried” Ohio voters back Romney 2:1. “Angry” Ohio voters back Romney 3:1.
* Romney leads among voters who are married. Obama leads among voters who are single, divorced or widowed.
* Greater Dayton and greater Cincinnati favor Romney. Greater Columbus, greater Toledo and greater Cleveland favor Obama.
* Union households break for Obama. Non-union households split.
* Evangelicals vote for Romney. Non-evangelicals vote for Obama.
* Independents break for Romney. Moderates break for Obama.
* Voters who say abortion should be legal in every case vote overwhelmingly for Obama.
* Voters who say abortion should be illegal in every case vote overwhelmingly for Romney.
* Voters who earn less than $60,000 a year vote for Obama. Voters who earn more than $60,000 a year vote for Romney.
* Ohio voters, narrowly, say Romney would do a better job balancing the federal budget.
* Ohio voters split on who would do better at keeping America safe.
* Ohio voters say Obama is more in touch with the average person.
In an election for United States Senator from Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown defeats Republican Josh Mandel 42% to 38% today. White voters narrowly favor Mandel, the Republican. Brown’s entire advantage comes from African Americans, who vote 6:1 for Brown, the Democrat. Brown leads in greater Cleveland, greater Columbus, and greater Toledo. Mandel leads in greater Cincinnati and greater Dayton.
Brown holds 79% of the Democratic base, compared to Mandel, who holds 73% of the Republican base. Mandel leads by 7 points among Independents, but that is offset by Brown’s 28-point advantage among moderates.
* Brown leads by 21 points in union houeholds; non-union households split.
* Mandel leads by 12 points among evangelicals.
* Brown leads 3:1 among those who say abortion should be legal in all cases. Mandel leads 3:1 among those who say abortion should never be legal.
* Brown leads among those earning less than $80,000 a year. Mandel leads among those earning more than $80,000 a year.
Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 925 Ohio adults 10/05/12 through 10/08/12. Of the adults, 808 had either already returned a ballot or were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to do so before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. As SurveyUSA has found in many geographies, cell-phone and home-phone respondents vote differently. In Ohio: Romney leads by 5 points among home phone respondents. Obama leads by 17 points among cell-phone respondents. When the two groups are proportionally blended, Obama has the nominal 1-point advantage that SurveyUSA reports here.