With Voting Underway In Oh-So-Important Ohio, Romney Nose-to-Nose with Obama

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/09/12 11:00 PM

In an election for Ohio’s 18 vital electoral votes today, 10/09/12, one week after Buckeye voting began and 4 weeks till votes are counted, Barack Obama is at 45% to Mitt Romney’s 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV, NBC4 in Columbus. Obama’s advantage is within the survey’s possible sources of error and may or may not be significant.

“Optimistic” Ohio voters back Obama 4:1. “Worried” Ohio voters back Romney 2:1. “Angry” Ohio voters back Romney 3:1.
Romney leads among voters who are married. Obama leads among voters who are single, divorced or widowed.
Greater Dayton and greater Cincinnati favor Romney. Greater Columbus, greater Toledo and greater Cleveland favor Obama.
Union households break for Obama. Non-union households split.
Evangelicals vote for Romney. Non-evangelicals vote for Obama.
Independents break for Romney. Moderates break for Obama.
Voters who say abortion should be legal in every case vote overwhelmingly for Obama.
Voters who say abortion should be illegal in every case vote overwhelmingly for Romney.
Voters who earn less than $60,000 a year vote for Obama. Voters who earn more than $60,000 a year vote for Romney.
Ohio voters, narrowly, say Romney would do a better job balancing the federal budget.
Ohio voters split on who would do better at keeping America safe.
Ohio voters say Obama is more in touch with the average person.

In an election for United States Senator from Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown defeats Republican Josh Mandel 42% to 38% today. White voters narrowly favor Mandel, the Republican. Brown’s entire advantage comes from African Americans, who vote 6:1 for Brown, the Democrat. Brown leads in greater Cleveland, greater Columbus, and greater Toledo. Mandel leads in greater Cincinnati and greater Dayton.

Brown holds 79% of the Democratic base, compared to Mandel, who holds 73% of the Republican base. Mandel leads by 7 points among Independents, but that is offset by Brown’s 28-point advantage among moderates.

Brown leads by 21 points in union houeholds; non-union households split.
Mandel leads by 12 points among evangelicals.
Brown leads 3:1 among those who say abortion should be legal in all cases. Mandel leads 3:1 among those who say abortion should never be legal.
Brown leads among those earning less than $80,000 a year. Mandel leads among those earning more than $80,000 a year.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 925 Ohio adults 10/05/12 through 10/08/12. Of the adults, 808 had either already returned a ballot or were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to do so before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. As SurveyUSA has found in many geographies, cell-phone and home-phone respondents vote differently. In Ohio: Romney leads by 5 points among home phone respondents. Obama leads by 17 points among cell-phone respondents. When the two groups are proportionally blended, Obama has the nominal 1-point advantage that SurveyUSA reports here.

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