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In Election For Mayor of Portland OR, Hales Increases Lead Over Jefferson, But Many Still Undecided 1 Month Till Votes are Counted

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/10/12 05:47 PM

In an election today, 10/10/12, for Portland Mayor, Charlie Hales gets 37% to Jefferson Smith’s 30%, with 33% of voters undecided, 1 month till votes are counted, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll 3 weeks ago, Hale’s support has jumped among Republicans, where Hales had led by 4, now leads by 25. Hales has doubled his advantage among voters age 50 to 64, where he had led by 14, but now leads by 25.

There is little or no movement on 3 city of Portland ballot measures. On the City Arts Tax ballot measure, 21% are certain to vote Yes today, 22% are certain to vote no. This is effectively unchanged from a month ago, especially given that 58% of voters today are not certain how they will vote on the Arts Tax.

On the Portland School District Bond Measure, Yes leads No 42% to 24% today, almost identical to SurveyUSA’s findings 3 weeks ago. The measure is strongly supported Democrats and Independents, opposed by Republicans.

The Multnomah County Library Taxing District Creation measure leads by 21 points today, which is up slightly from a 17-point lead 3 weeks ago. Republicans oppose. Democrats and Independents support.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 850 Multnomah County adults 10/07/12 through 10/09/12. After filtering questions were applied, 675 likely voters in Multnomah County were identified, of which 513 were also likely voters in the city of Portland. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Incumbent mayor Sam Adams is not seeking a second term.

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