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3 Weeks Till Votes Are Counted, ‘Yes’ on Minnesota Marriage Amendment Now in Jeopardy; Obama Steady Atop Romney; Klobuchar Re-Elected

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/18/12 03:58 PM

In an election for President of the United States today, 10/15/12, Barack Obama carries Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes, defeating Mitt Romney 50% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities. Obama’s 10-point advantage today is identical to his 50% to 40% advantage in a SurveyUSA poll released 5 weeks ago, 09/10/12.

In an election for United States Senator from Minnesota today, incumbent DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar defeats Republican challenger Kurt Bills 58% to 30%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, Klobuchar is up 3 points, Bills is down 4 points. Klobuchar had led by 21 points, now leads by 28 points.

Support for an amendment to Minnesota’s constitution to define marriage as a union of one man and one woman has eroded. The ballot measure is now running effectively even, 47% for “Yes,” 46% for “No,” and for the first time in SurveyUSA polling, in danger of defeat. 5 weeks ago, Yes led No by 7 points. In earlier SurveyUSA polling, where a summary of the ballot language was used instead of the actual ballot language, Yes had led by as many as 15 points.

5 weeks ago, women supported the measure by 5 points, now oppose the measure by 6 points, a swing of 11 points to “No.”
5 weeks ago, Independent voters supported the measure by 1 point, now oppose the measure by 10 points, a swing of 11 points to “No.”
5 weeks ago, moderates opposed the measure by 9 points, now oppose the measure by 20 points, a swing of 11 points to “No.”
5 weeks ago, middle-income voters had supported the measure by 10 points, now oppose the measure by 4 points, a swing of 14 points to “No.”

Support for a ballot measure that would require Minnesota voters to present a photo I.D. in order to vote is also eroding. 5 weeks ago, the measure led by 31 points, today leads by 13 points, 53% to 40%. Support for the measure has decreased among women from 29 points to 9 points. Opposition to the measure has increased among Democrats from 14 points to 33 points. Voters with a 4-year college degree had supported the measure by 24 points, now support by just 2 points. In Southern MN, support has eroded from 42 points to 6 points.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults 10/12/12 through 10/14/12. Of them, 640 were registered to vote in the state of Minnesota. Of the registered, SurveyUSA determined that 550 were likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (77% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (23% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device.

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