In Florida, Romney and Obama A Whisker Apart, 18 Days Till Votes Are Counted; Republican Mack Gains On Democrat Nelson in Senate Fight
In an election for President of the United States in Florida today, 10/19/12, Barack Obama is a nominal, statistically insignificant, single point ahead of Mitt Romney, 47% to 46%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, Romney is up 2 points, Obama is down 1 point. Florida’s critical 29 electoral votes remain up for grabs, 18 days till votes are counted. Romney has gained ground in each of 3 SurveyUSA tracking polls going back to 07/20/12. Obama’s once 12-point lead among Florida women has been reduced to 4 points. The contest is tied among men. Narrowly, Cubans vote Republican. Decisively, non-Cuban Hispanics vote Democrat. Voters under age 50 vote for Obama. Voters age 50+ vote for Romney. Whites vote for Romney 5:4. Moderates vote for Obama 5:4. Independents break 44% to 40% for Romney.
Voters with a high school education split 45% for each candidate. Voters with some college education split 47% for each candidate. Romney has a 5-point edge among those with a 4-year college degree. Obama leads among those who earn less than $80,000 a year. Romney leads among Florida voters who earn more than $80,000 a year. 4 of Florida’s 5 regions break for Romney. Obama’s advantage comes entirely from Southeast Florida, where he leads by 24 points. Obama has a Plus 3 Net Favorability today. Romney has a Minus 2 Net Favorability today.
In an election for United States Senator from Florida today, Democrat Bill Nelson gets 48% to 40% for Republican Connie Mack. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, Nelson is up 1 point, Mack is up 4 points. Nelson had led by 11, now leads by 8. Nelson had led by 15 points in Central Florida, now leads by 1. Nelson had led by 14 among Independent voters, now leads by 6. Nelson had led by 37 points among political moderates, now leads by 23. There is offsetting movement among middle-income voters, where Nelson had led by 10, now leads by 15, and among seniors, where Nelson had led by 2, now leads by 10. Nelson has a Plus 9 Net Favorability in the state. Mack has a Minus 10 Net Favorability.
Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 Florida adults 10/17/12 and 10/18/12. Of the adults, 645 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 600 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (77% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (23% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, or other electronic device. All interviews conducted after 10/16/12 town-hall Presidential debate.