In Oregon, 19 Days Until Votes are Counted, Obama 7 points Atop Romney; 4 Ballot Measures Examined

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/20/12 08:39 AM

In an election for President of the United States in Oregon today, 10/18/12, with voting about to begin, Barack Obama defeats Mitt Romney 49% to 42%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV in Portland. All interviews were conducted following the 10/16/12 Presidential town-hall debate in New York. Obama carried Oregon by 16 points in 2008, but leads by 7 points today. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, Obama has lost 2 points: then, he led by 9.

Among men, Obama has gained ground: he had trailed by 3 points now leads by 2. Among women, Obama has lost ground: he had led by 21 points, now leads by 11. Obama’s advantage among Independents has been shaved by 3 points: he had led by 7, now leads by 4. Obama has lost ground among lower income voters, gained ground among middle-income voters. Romney has made inroads among upper-income voters. In the region of Oregon outside of greater Portland, the contest has flipped: Obama had led by 3, now trails by 10. Compared to 5 weeks ago, Romney voters are voting more “for” Romney than they are voting “against” Barack Obama, a sign that Romney is seen today as a more attractive candidate, not just an “anybody but Obama.”

Measure 80, which would allow adults to grow and possess marijuana, continues to trail narrowly. Today, “No” leads “Yes” 43% to 36%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, opposition is up 2 points, support is down 1 point. The measure had trailed by 4, now trails by 7. The margin of support among Democrats has dropped 10 points.

Measure 82, which would allow privately owned casinos, today trails 53% to 28%. Opposition to the measure has grown from 16 points 5 weeks ago to 25 points today.

Measure 83, which would allow a privately owned casino in Wood Village, today trails 54% to 26%. Opposition to the measure has grown from 11 points 5 weeks ago to 28 points today.

SurveyUSA asked about Measure 85 in 2 different ways for this release. First, consistent with last month, SurveyUSA told voters very little about the measure, an attempt to gauge “certain” support. This approach is designed to identify the most-committed backers and opponents of a proposition, and is an approach used by SurveyUSA across the country to measure public awareness of ballot initiatives. Using this approach, 25% of voters tell SurveyUSA they are “certain” to vote No on Measure 85. 15% of voters tell SurveyUSA they are “certain” to vote Yes on Measure 85. 60% of voters are “not certain” how they will vote.

Separately, SurveyUSA read to voters a complete description of Measure 85. Using this approach, “Yes” on 85 leads “No,” 53% to 26%, with 21% undecided. This approach to initiative measurement includes “soft” support as well as “hard” support and incorporates into the findings those who may be hearing the exact ballot language for the first time. Given the full description: Democrats and Independents support the measure, Republicans split. Conservatives oppose the measure, moderates and liberals support.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of Oregon adults 10/16/12 through 10/18/12. Of the adults, 644 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 579 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (77% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (23% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

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