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Despite Near Fisticuffs, Fundamentals of Sherman-Berman Contest in CA-30 Remain the Same — Sherman on Top

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/25/12 07:37 PM

The dramatic debate between Democrat Brad Sherman and Democrat Howard Berman in the musical-chairs contest to see which of the 2 incumbents gets the 1 seat in California’s newly drawn 30th Congressional District, has had little effect on the polling numbers in the race, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles. Today, Sherman leads by 11 points, 44% to 33%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 1 month ago, Sherman is down 1 point, Berman is up 1 point. Sherman had led by 13, now leads by 11. Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot (early voters), Sherman leads by 16 points.

Both candidates’ “favorability” numbers have gone down as the campaign has heated up. Sherman had been at Plus 33 Net Favorable, now is at Plus 18. Berman had been at Plus 22 Net Favorable, now is at Plus 8. Voters do not see one candidate or the other as more even-tempered. Voters continue to see Sherman as more focused on the needs of Valley residents, unchanged from last month.

In an indication of how the larger political scene has been transformed in the 30 days since SurveyUSA’s last poll of the district, President Barack Obama today carries the district by 22 points. One month ago, Obama carried the district by 33 points. SurveyUSA sees this kind of erosion in Obama’s support in geographies across the country, not just in heavily Democratic districts.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research, which was conducted 100% by telephone: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 registered voters 10/22/12 through 10/24/12 using registration based (voter list) sample from Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 674 had already cast a ballot or were likely to do so in the election for U.S. House of Representatives. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (83% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (17% of likely voters) were called on their cell phones by live operators, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured respondent cooperation, qualified the respondent, asked the questions, logged the answers, and remained on the line until the interview was completed.

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