Florida Early Vote Favors Obama, But When Election-Day Romney Supporters are Factored In, Sunshine State is Exactly Tied

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/30/12 08:33 AM

8 days until votes are counted in the election for President, the 5% of Florida voters who today are undecided will determine whether Mitt Romney or Barack Obama get the state’s critical 29 electoral votes, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Among Florida voters who have made up their minds, including a large number who have already returned a ballot, the contest is 47% Romney, 47% Obama.

Romney starts off 15 points in the hole: Obama leads 57% to 42% among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. But Romney leads by 13 points among the larger group of voters who tell SurveyUSA they will vote on Election Day. When the 2 groups are proportionally blended, the candidates finish exactly even.

Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 11 days ago, which was conducted before the 3rd and final Presidential Debate, Romney is today up a nominal 1 point, Obama is flat. Today, Obama leads by 19 points in Southeast FL, but Romney leads in every other region of the state. Obama leads by 4 points among women, Romney leads by 5 points among men. Independents break 45% to 40% for Romney. Moderates break 51% to 41% for Obama. Romney leads among Florida’s white voters, is tied among Florida’s Cubans, and trails Obama among Florida’s other minority groups.

Romney leads by 18 points among seniors, who are the most reliable voters. This gives Romney an advantage heading into the final week of campaigning. If younger voters do not turn out in the numbers shown here, Obama will under-perform this poll.

* Obama has a Plus 2 Net Favorability Rating today, almost unchanged from the Plus 3 that Obama had 11 days ago.
* Romney has a Plus 1 Net Favorability Rating today, which is 3 ticks better than the Minus 2 Rating Romney had 11 days ago.

In an election today for United States Senator from Florida, incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson defeats Republican challenger Connie Mack 49% to 41%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 11 days ago, Mack and Nelson are both up 1 point. Nelson had led by 8 points, still leads by 8 points today. Nelson had led by 5 points among voters age 50+; Nelson still leads by 5 points among voters age 50+. Nelson had led by 6 points among FL Independents; Nelson now leads by 7 among FL Independents.

* Nelson today has a Plus 8 Net Favorability Rating, largely unchanged from the Plus 9 Nelson had 11 days ago.
* Mack today has a Minus 5 Net Favorability Rating, which is better than the Minus 10 Mack had 11 days ago.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of Florida adults 10/25/12 through 10/27/12. Of the adults, 643 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 595 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to do so on or before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

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