In Ohio, 7 Days Till Votes Are Counted, Democrats Maintain An Edge in Both Contests for President and United States Senator

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/30/12 06:00 PM

It’s Barack Obama 48%, Mitt Romney 45% in SurveyUSA’s penultimate tracking poll of the state of Ohio, unchanged from last week, and barely changed over the past month. 4 times in October SurveyUSA has polled Ohio for WCMH-TV in Columbus, and 4 times Barack Obama has led, though always inside of any survey’s margin of possible error. Obama has never polled below 45%, Romney has never polled above 45%.

As evidence of how important each Buckeye vote is, half of Ohio voters tell SurveyUSA they have been contacted by both campaigns for President. Another 18% have been contacted by just the Romney campaign, and another 15% have been contacted by just the Obama campaign. That leaves just 1 out of 6 Ohio voters who say they have not been contacted by either campaign for President.

Voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot vote 56% to 40% for Obama. Voters who tell SurveyUSA they will vote on Election day vote 50% to 41% for Romney. Independents today break 48% to 37% for Romney. Romney leads today, as he has in each of the 4 polls, on which candidate would do a better job balancing the federal budget. Obama leads today, as he has in each of the 4 polls, on which candidate is more in touch with the average voter.

In an election for United States Senator from Ohio today, Democrat Sherrod Brown edges Republican Josh Mandel 46% to 41%. Week-on-week, Brown is up 3 points, Mandel is down 1 point. Week-on-week, Brown has gained ground among both men and women, young and old.

Voters who are optimistic vote 4:1 for Brown. Voters who are worried vote 2:1 for Mandel. Among voters who believe abortion should be legal in all cases, Brown maintains the same 4:1 advantage he has throughout October. Among voters who say that abortion should be illegal in all cases, Mandel maintains a 3:1 advantage. Union households give Brown a 14-point advantage. Evangelicals give Mandel an 11-point advantage.

Voters today oppose the health care reform law that was passed in 2010, as they have each time SurveyUSA has asked about it. Voters today support the financial bailout of the American auto industry, as they have each time SurveyUSA has asked about it.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 685 adults from the state of Ohio 10/26/12 through 10/29/12. Of the adults, 611 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 603 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot, or to be likely to do so on or before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

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