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In Missouri, 2 Days Till Votes Are Counted, McCaskill Poised to Defeat Akin, Hold U.S. Senate Seat for Democrats

SurveyUSA Operations - 11/05/12 11:22 AM

In an election for United States Senator from Missouri, incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill leads at the wire, having assembled a coalition that should allow her to defeat Republican challenger Todd Akin, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSDK-TV in St Louis, KSHB-TV in Kansas City, and KSPR-TV and KYTV-TV in Springfield. The contest has national significance. McCaskill gets 51% to 36% for Akin, with Libertarian Jonathan Dine far back at 8%. If Dine’s support should collapse on Election Day, those votes almost certainly will go to Akin and will reduce the McCaskill margin of victory shown here.

Akin holds just 66% of the Republican base, compared to McCaskill, who holds 93% of the Democratic base. McCaskill leads among Independents by 24 points, and leads among moderates by 48 points. Of those voting for Barack Obama for President, 97% are also voting for the Democrat McCaskill. But of those voting for Mitt Romney for President, just 70% are also voting for Republican Akin.

In the election for Governor of Missouri, incumbent Democrat Jay Nixon defeats Republican challenger Dave Spence 48% to 39%. White voters split, 44% to 44%. Nixon’s entire margin of victory comes from African American voters, who break 11:1 for Nixon.

Mitt Romney carries Missouri 50% to 43%, defeating Barack Obama by 7 points, and keeping Missouri’s 10 electoral votes Republican red. Romney leads by 38 points among evangelical voters, and by 50 points among pro-life voters. Obama carries greater St. Louis and effectively ties Romney in greater Kansas City. But Romney has overpowering strength in Southwestern MO and in Northern MO.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults from the state of Missouri 10/28/12 through 11/03/12. Of the adults, 643 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 589 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop or other electronic device.

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