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Fletcher Emerges as Clear Front Runner in San Diego Special Election to Erase Filner Stain

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 09/24/13 12:26 PM

One month till early voting begins in the special election to replace Bob Filner as Mayor of San Diego, Nathan Fletcher emerges with a strong coalition that puts him atop Kevin Faulconer, who finishes 2nd today, and David Alvarez, who finishes 3rd.

Fletcher gets 30% of the votes in a crowded field, with broad support from middle-aged voters, Democrats, whites and Asians. Fletcher’s coalition includes the most educated and the most affluent. Voters focused on Leadership and Reaching Across Party Aisle pick Fletcher.

Faulconer gets 22% today, backed by Republicans, conservatives, men and seniors. Voters focused on integrity in government pick Faulconer.

David Alvarez gets 17% today. He is backed by Hispanics, young voters, liberals and those with the least formal education.

If no one candidate receives 50% of the votes in the 11/19/13 special election, a runoff will follow. In head-to-head matchups for the hypothetical runoff, SurveyUSA finds:

Fletcher defeats Faulconer 44% to 30%.
Fletcher defeats Alvarez 52% to 24%.
Faulconer and Alvarez effectively tie, 38% Faulconer, 35% Alvarez.

Cell-phones and home-phones are included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 800 city of San Diego adults 09/19/13 through 09/23/13. Of the adults, 686 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 527 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the special election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

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