Former Republican Governor Crist Atop Current Incumbent Republican Governor Scott in Race for Florida Statehouse
29 weeks till votes are counted in Florida, incumbent Republican Governor Rick Scott is the underdog in a fight against (now) Democratic challenger Charlie Crist, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Today, it’s Christ 46%, Scott 41%. 502 likely voters interviewed.
Scott’s support is older. Crist’s support is younger. The older the electorate on Election Day, the better Scott will do. The younger the electorate, the better Crist will do.
Scott leads 2:1 in Northeast Florida, and more narrowly leads in Southwest Florida (which includes the Tampa Bay region). Crist leads 3:2 in Southeast Florida and more narrowly in Central Florida and Northwest Florida. A small turnout in Dade and Broward counties helps Scott. A large turnout in Dade and Broward counties helps Crist. Scott holds 71% of the Republican base, compared to Crist, who holds 80% of the Democratic base. Independents split. Conservatives vote 7:1 Republican. Liberals vote 8:1 Democratic. Importantly, moderates break 7:4 for the Democrat Crist.
Scott and Crist are effectively even among college graduates. Crist leads among less educated voters. Scott leads among upper-income voters. Crist leads among lower-income voters. Middle-income voters split. Scott leads narrowly among white voters; Crist leads overwhelmingly among African Americans, and materially among Asian Americans. Both Cubans and non-Cuban Hispanics lean slightly Republican — but that is based on a small sample and caution should be exercised in projecting those numbers out to Election Day.
Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: 940 state of Florida adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 04/10/14 through 04/14/14. Of the adults, 799 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 502 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.