3 Weeks to GA Primary, Perdue and Kingston Battle to Make Runoff and Right to Face Nunn for Senate; Republican Deal 4 Points Atop Democrat Carter in November General Election Gubernatorial Look-Ahead

SurveyUSA Operations - 04/28/14 11:19 PM

3 Weeks till the 2014 Georgia Primary, clear frontrunners emerge in some high-profile contests but other lower-profile races remain a free-for-all, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WXIA-TV in Atlanta. A look ahead to a November Governor’s election shows a tight contest.

In a Republican Primary for U.S. Senator today, David Perdue is at 26%, down 3 percentage points from an identical SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago. Jack Kingston is at 20%, up a nominal 1 point from 5 weeks ago. Karen Handel has momentum, and is at 15% today, up 5 percentage points. Paul Broun is at 13% today, up 2 percentage points. Phil Gingrey, Derrick Grayson and Art Gardner are further back. A runoff is likely. The U.S. Senate Seat is open; Saxby Chambliss is retiring.

In the Republican Primary for Governor, Nathan Deal overwhelms 2 nominal challengers: Deal 64%, David Pennington.11%, John Barge 10%. These results are largely unchanged from 5 weeks ago.

In the Republican Primary for School Superintendent, 9 candidates battle for name recognition and voter share of mind, with any outcome possible. 43% are undecided. The top 5 candidates have between 7% and 10% support levels, just as they did 5 weeks ago. A runoff is certain. The sitting Superintendent, John Barge, is running for Governor.

In the Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator, Michelle Nunn decisively defeats 3 opponents. Nunn has 57% today, up from 48%. Steve Miles is at 13%, up from 11%. Todd Robinson is at 7%, down from 14%. Rad Radulovacki at 5%, unchanged. Nunn is likely to reach the 50% needed to avoid a 07/22/14 runoff.

In the Democratic Primary for Secretary of State, Doreen Carter defeats Gerald Beckum today, 48% to 23%, largely unchanged from 5 weeks ago. The winner faces incumbent Republican Brian Kemp.

In the Democratic Primary for Insurance Commissioner, Liz Johnson defeats Keith Heard 48% to 28%, largely unchanged from 5 weeks ago. The winner faces incumbent Republican Ralph Hudgens.

In the Democratic Primary for State School Superintendent, Alisha Thomas Morgan has 19% today, up from 12%, followed by Valarie Wilson at 16%, down from 17%. Dennis Freeman has 13%, down from 16%. Tarnisha Dent has 10%, up from 9%. A runoff is certain.

6 months until the November General Election , a look at the likely Gubernatorial head-to-head match-up shows Republican Nathan Deal edging Democrat Jason Carter 41% to 37%. Libertarian Andrew Hunt today takes 9% of the vote. Deal leads by 15 points among males; Carter leads by 6 points among females, a 21-point gender gap. Deal leads 2:1 among GA whites; Carter leads 4:1 among GA blacks. Deal holds 79% of the Republican base. Carter holds 71% of the Democratic base. Independents split. Moderates break for Carter by 17 points.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,340 state of GA adults 04/24/14 through 04/27/14. Of the adults, 1,999 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 501 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/20/14 Republican Primary, 435 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/20/14 Democratic Primary. 1,567 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

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