One Week to GA GOP Senate Primary, Perdue Will Advance to Certain Runoff, But Will He Face Kingston, Handel or Gingrey? Carter Poised To Be Sec’y of State Nominee; Johnson Likely to Advance as Insurance Commish; Deal Atop Carter in November Governor’s Look-Ahead
7 days till votes are counted in the Georgia Primary, some contests snap into crisp focus, others remain blurry, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted for WXIA-TV, the Gannett-owned NBC affiliate in Atlanta.
In the Republican Primary for U.S. Senator, David Perdue leads with 27%, and has led in every SurveyUSA tracking poll to date. Perdue is almost certain not to receive the 50% of the vote needed to avoid a 07/22/14 runoff, so who finishes second in the 05/20/14 primary is critical: Jack Kingston is at 19% among all likely voters, down a nominal 1 point from 2 weeks ago. Karen Handel is at 16% today among all likely voters, up a nominal 1 percentage point. When you examine just the small subset of voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot (aka: the Early Voters, which is sometimes a measure of voter enthusiasm, campaign organization, or both), Phil Gingrey has the most energized base, with 19% of the votes already cast going to him, almost twice his overall forecast vote total of 10%. Handel has only 11% of the votes already cast; her voters appear more willing to wait and vote on Primary Day. Perdue has 28% of the votes already cast, Kingston has 19%. Which of these 4 candidates advances will depend on a mixture of enthusiasm, organization and turnout. The U.S. Senate Seat is open; Saxby Chambliss is retiring.
In the Republican Primary for Governor, Nathan Deal overwhelms 2 nominal challengers and advances to face Jason Carter in the November general election.
In the Republican Primary for School Superintendent, months of campaigning have done little to differentiate 8 of the 9 candidates in voters’ minds. Only Ashley Bell today makes it into double digits, heading into the final week. All others are bunched between 5% and 9%. 38% of the likeliest voters remain undecided, as the campaign draws to a close. A runoff is certain. The sitting Superintendent, John Barge, is running for Governor.
In the Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator, Michelle Nunn decisively defeats 3 opponents. Nunn has 59% today. Her opponents, combined, have 22%. Nunn will face in November the winner of the Republican Senate Runoff on 07/22/14.
In the Democratic Primary for Secretary of State, Doreen Carter defeats Gerald Beckum today, 48% to 20%, largely unchanged from 2 weeks ago. The winner faces incumbent Republican Brian Kemp.
In the Democratic Primary for Insurance Commissioner, Liz Johnson defeats Keith Heard 43% to 26%. Wrinkle: compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, both candidates are down; neither has momentum. Johnson has fallen by 5 points, from 48% to 43%. Heard has fallen by 2 points, from 28% to 26%. Undecideds are up. Who chooses a candidate in this contest, as opposed to skipping over this contest and leaving the ballot blank, will determine the winner. Johnson has to be considered the favorite, even if she limps to the finish line. The winner faces incumbent Republican Ralph Hudgens.
In the Democratic Primary for State School Superintendent, Alisha Thomas Morgan has 20% today, up a nominal 1 point, followed by Valarie Wilson at 17%, Denise Freeman at 13% and Jurita Mays at 10%. A runoff is certain, with Thomas Morgan most likely to be 1 of the 2 who advances.
6 months until the November General Election, a look at the Gubernatorial head-to-head shows Republican Nathan Deal 6 points atop Democrat Jason Carter, 43% to 37%. Libertarian Andrew Hunt today takes 7% of the vote. Carter leads by 11 points in Greater Atlanta; Deal leads by 16 points in Northwest Georgia and by 14 points in Southern and Eastern GA. Deal leads 5:2 among GA whites; Carter leads 5:1 among GA blacks. 82% of Republicans stay with Deal; 80% of Democrats stay with Carter. Independents break 3:2 Republican. Moderates break 5:3 Democrat.
Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,100 state of GA adults 05/08/14 through 05/12/14. Of the adults, 1,738 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 634 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/20/14 Republican Primary, 549 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/20/14 Democratic Primary. 1,380 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. As with all SurveyUSA election tracking polls, click on the “Triangle T” where ever you see one, to reveal the Interactive Tracking Graphs for that contest.