Steady as She Goes: In Florida, Democrat Crist Still Narrowly Atop Republican Scott in Bid to Capture Governor’s Mansion

SurveyUSA Operations - 05/13/14 11:00 PM

6 months until votes are counted in Florida, Democratic challenger Charlie Crist maintains a slight advantage over incumbent Republican Rick Scott in the battle for Governor of Florida, according to SurveyUSA’s latest tracking poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Today, it’s Crist 44%, Scott 41%, unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll 2 weeks ago. See the interactive tracking graph, here. Of the last 18 public opinion polls conducted in Florida by any of the research organizations polling on the race, only 1 has shown Scott ahead.

Men and women actively are sorting their preferences out, and there is movement in the tracking graphs as they do so. Today: Scott leads by 12 points among men, Crist leads by 17 points among women, a 29-point Gender Gap. Cubans are today aligned with the Republican. Non-Cuban Hispanics are today aligned with the Democrat. Whites back Scott 46% to 40%, but that is not enough to keep Scott in Tallahassee. Moderates are behind Crist 55% to 30%.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: 950 state of Florida adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 05/09/14 through 05/12/14. Of the adults, 853 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 554 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (75% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (25% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

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