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In CA-52, Incumbent Democrat Peters Swimming Upstream in Fight For 2nd Term; Republican Challenger DeMaio on Top

SurveyUSA Operations - 36 days ago

In an election for U.S. House of Representatives from California’s 52nd Congressional District today, 06/13/14, Republican challenger Scott DeMaio has a narrow advantage over 1st-term incumbent Democrat Scott Peters, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for the Union Tribune newspaper and KGTV-TV 10 News in San Diego.

DeMaio 51%, Peters 44%. That’s the headline at this hour, 6 months till votes are counted, pointing to a possible Republican takeaway of this congressional seat. DeMaio holds 82% of the Republican base, and gets 88% support from conservatives. Peters holds 85% of the Democratic base, holds 87% of the liberal vote, and edges DeMaio among moderates 54% to 43%. DeMaio leads by 17 points among men, trails by 2 points among women, a 19-point Gender Gap. DeMaio leads decisively among the less educated and less affluent voters. Peters draws even among the most educated and most affluent voters. Union voters break heavily for Peters, non-union voters break for DeMaio. Voters split when asked which of the 2 candidates is more trustworthy. 45% say DeMaio, 41% say Peters.

DeMaio and Peters emerge from a 06/03/14 “Top-2″ primary in which DeMaio finished behind Peters, in large part because DeMaio and other Republicans split the Republican vote. Today, those voters who backed Republican Kirk Jorgensen in the primary break 5:1 for DeMaio. Those voters who in 2012 backed Republican Brian Bilbray in CA-52, today back DeMaio 11:1. Those voters who in 2012 backed Democrat Peters, stick today with Peters 11:1.

The results of today’s poll are similar to a SurveyUSA poll released one year ago, 06/13/13, which showed DeMaio atop Peters 48% to 39%. That poll was of registered voters; today’s poll is of likely voters, so the two are not precisely apples-to-apples. Nevertheless, the broad themes remain consistent.

Research conducted 100% by telephone, using live operators to contact cell-phone respondents: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 registered voters from California’s 52nd Congressional District using Registration Based Sample (RBS, aka: Voter List sample) from Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 554 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a landline (home) telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (aka: cell-phone respondents) were interviewed on their cell phone by live operators who hand-dialed the cell phones, qualified the respondent, interviewed the respondent and remained on the line until the completion of the survey.

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