In MN, GOP Gov Primary is White Hot 2 Months Out; Winner Ready to Tear Into Incumbent Democrat Dayton; Franken Can’t Coast Either

SurveyUSA Operations - 06/16/14 01:42 PM

2 months till votes are counted in the Republican Primary for Minnesota Governor, 4 candidates battle for the nomination, with the top 2 tied, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV. Today, Kurt Zellers and Jeff Johnson are even at 23%. They are followed by Marty Seifert at 14% and Scott Honour at 9%.

Regardless of which 1 of the 4 gets the nomination, DFL incumbent Mark Dayton may have a fight on his hands. The same is true of Al Franken in the US Senate contest … but let’s focus on the Governor’s race first.

In the Gubernatorial primary, Zellers narrowly outdraws Johnson among Republicans. Johnson narrowly outdraws Zellers among Independents. Conservatives break ever-so-slightly for Zellers; moderates break ever-so-slightly for Johnson. Johnson runs strong in Southern MN, Zellers runs strong in NE MN. The 2 split in the Twin Cities. Zellers’ support is younger. Johnson’s support is older. Johnson uniquely appeals to middle-income voters.

In hypothetical November match-ups that wheel the 4 Republicans against Dayton, Dayton leads in every case. But never with more than 47% of the vote. Today it’s:

Dayton 46%, Johnson 40%. Dayton by 6.
Dayton 46%, Zellers 39%. Dayton by 7.
Dayton 46%, Seifert 38%. Dayton by 8.
Dayton 47%, Honour 37%. Dayton by 10.

In the Republican Primary for US Senate, Mike McFadden is at 44%, Jim Abeler is at 16%. 40% choose some other candidate, or are undecided. The winner will face Franken 11/04/14.

In hypothetical November match-ups for US Senator, Franken like Dayton may have his hands full. Today it’s:

Franken 48%, McFadden 42%. Franken by 6.
Franken 48%, Abeler 39%. Franken by 9.

Independence Party candidate Kevin Terrell is a factor, at 4% to 6% of the vote … and 10% to 12% of the vote among Independents. Franken holds 90% of the DFL base against both McFadden and Abeler. But Abeler is less palatable to MN Independents.

68% of MN voters disapprove of a new $77 million building to provide new offices for the Minnesota Senate. 18% approve.

MN adults by 5:4 say that a light-rail system that will connect Minneapolis and St Paul is not worth the $957 million in taxes it cost to build. 51% say the transit connecting Minneapolis to St Paul is not worth the money; 40% say it is worth the cost. Of those who live in the counties the light rail serves, 6% say they will use transit regularly, 28% say they will use it occasionally, 65% they will almost never use light rail.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,200 state of Minnesota adults 06/05/14 through 06/09/14. Of the adults, 2,032 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 1,017 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election, 404 were determined to be likely to vote in the 08/12/14 primary election. Of the adults, 1,177 live in Greater Minneapolis and were asked how often they will ride light rail. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

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