Absence Does Not Make the KS-04 Heart Grow Fonder — Pompeo With Early Lead on Tiahrt in GOP Primary Battle

SurveyUSA Operations - 06/19/14 06:25 PM

6 weeks to the Republican Primary in Kansas’ 4th Congressional District, incumbent Republican Mike Pompeo leads his newly announced primary challenger Todd Tiahrt, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSN-TV in Wichita.

Today it’s Pompeo 51%, Tiahrt 34%. Tiahrt held the seat in this district until he resigned to run for the US Senate in 2010. Pompeo seeks his 3rd term. Tiahrt wants his seat back. The district is heavily Republican. The winner of the 08/05/14 primary is likely to win the general election 11/04/14.

At this hour, Pompeo is well positioned to hold the seat. He runs particularly strong among conservatives, where he leads by 27 points. Tiahrt does much better among moderates, where he trails Pompeo by only 3 points, but alas, he still trails. Pompeo leads by 19 points among men, and by 14 points among women. Pompeo runs strong among seniors, where he leads by 22 points. Tiahrt keeps it closer in the younger age groups, but still trails there by 14 to 15 points. Tiahrt does comparatively well among lower-income likely Republican primary voters, where Tiahrt trails by 6. But Pompeo overwhelms among the more affluent, where he leads by 23 points.

Voters tell SurveyUSA that they are most focused on jobs in casting their vote. Among voters focused on jobs, Pompeo leads Tiahrt by 11 points. By comparison, among voters who say that immigration is the most important issue, Pompeo leads Tiahrt by 39 points.

Primary elections can be volatile, and these results may change as both candidates increasingly define themselves and their opponents as Primary Day approaches. On the other hand, Tiahrt is a known commodity in the district, and is not a typical unknown challenger running against a sitting incumbent.

Interviews, including cell-phone respondents, conducted 100% by telephone: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 registered voters from Kansas’ 4th Congressional District 06/16/14 through 06/18/14, using Registration Based Sample (RBS), which is also known as Voter List Sample, purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. To qualify for inclusion, a household needed to have voted in at least one previous Congressional primary. Of the 950 registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 534 were likely to vote in the 08/05/14 Primary. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (also known as: cell-phone respondents), were called on their cell phones, by live operators, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent’s cooperation, conducted the interview, and remained on the line until the completion of the interview. You must credit KSN-TV if you cite these results.

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