As summer begins, Florida’s even-steven race for Governor glows white hot, with this latest release of the WFLA-TV tracking poll showing incumbent Republican Rick Scott at 42%, Democratic challenger Charlie Crist at 41%. The research, conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV by SurveyUSA, is more favorable to Scott than data released 06/10/14, which showed Crist leading Scott by 4 points.
Some of the ground that Scott made up between 06/10/14 and today is among seniors, where Crist had recently drawn even with Scott, but today Crist falls to 13 points behind. Scott also makes up ground among the most educated voters, where 2 weeks ago Crist led by 11 and now leads by 3. Today’s release shows a 25-point Gender Gap: Scott leads by 13 points among men; Crist leads by 12 points among women. Cubans vote Republican. Non-Cuban Hispanics vote Democratic. Whites vote Republican. Blacks vote Democratic. Independents break 4:3 Republican. Moderates break 2:1 Democratic.
Looking ahead to the 2016 Presidential election, SurveyUSA wheels Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio against 2 possible Democratic nominees: Hillary Clinton today defeats Rubio by 14 points in a hypothetical match-up. Rubio today defeats Joe Biden by 3 points in a hypothetical match-up. Formidably: Clinton gets 60% of the female vote if she is the Democratic nominee. By contrast, Biden gets 47% of the female vote if he is the Democratic nominee.
Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 950 state of Florida adults 06/20/14 through 06/23/14. Of the adults, 834 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 541 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election, and were asked the Crist-Scott questions. The 2016 hypotheticals were asked of all 834 registered voters. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone or other electronic device.