Kansas Political Rundown: Brownback Under Water; Schodorf In Kobach’s Rear-View Mirror; Roberts Ahead But Can’t Coast

SurveyUSA Operations - 06/25/14 07:54 PM

6 weeks till votes are counted in the 08/05/14 Kansas Primary, no incumbent is threatened in contests for Governor, Senator and Secretary of State, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSN-TV in Wichita. But strong general election challengers may make for an exciting Fall.

On the Republican Primary ballot:

For Governor, the incumbent ticket of Sam Brownback and Jeff Colyer 3:2 defeats the challenger ticket of Jennifer Winn and Robin Lais.
For U.S. Senator, incumbent Pat Roberts defeats challenger Milton Wolf 2:1.
For Secretary of State, incumbent Kris Kobach defeats challenger Scott Morgan 2:1.

On the Democratic Primary ballot:

For U.S. Senator, Chad Taylor defeats Patrick Wiesner 41% to 16%, but a plurality of likely voters, 43%, remain undecided, making any outcome possible.

Looking ahead to the 11/04/14 General Election:

Brownback is fighting for his life. Democratic challengers Paul Davis and Jill Docking today lead the former U.S. Senator and current Governor, 47% to 41%. 1 in 4 registered Republicans today defects and votes for the Davis/Docking Democratic ticket. By contrast, Davis/Docking holds 89% of the Democratic base. Independents break Democratic by 19 points. Brownback’s weakness among men, where he leads Davis by a nominal 1 point, cannot overcome the Democratic ticket’s strength among women, where Davis/Docking leads by 14 points.

In the Governor contest, voters are focused on tax rates and education funding. Those who say tax rates are most important vote Republican, by 16 points. Those who say education funding is most important vote Democratic, by 54 points. Brownback has 5 months to consolidate his support.

In the contest for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Roberts, Roberts today defeats likely Democratic nominee Taylor 43% to 33%. Third-party candidates take 12% of the vote today, and another 12% are undecided. Roberts is above 50% in rural Western KS, but below 50% elsewhere. Roberts leads among men and women, and leads in every age group. But combined, Roberts’ 3 opponents have more support than he does.

In the Senate contest, voters are focused on the economy and health care. Those who say health care is most important back Roberts 3:1. Those who say that the economy is most important back Taylor 4:3.

In the Secretary of State contest, incumbent Republican Kris Kobach narrowly edges Jean Schodorf, 47% to 41%. Kobach appeals to conservatives, where he leads 9:1, but Schodorf has significant strength among moderates, where she leads by 38 points. Kobach holds 70% of the Republican base, but Schodorf holds 80% of the Democratic base. Independents in this contest break Democratic 4:3.

In the Secretary of State contest, voters are focused on immigration, where Kobach has a 41 point advantage.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,200 state of Kansas adults 06/19/14 through 06/23/14. Of the adults, 1931 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 508 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 08/05/14 Republican Primary, 252 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 08/05/14 Democratic Primary. 1,068 voters were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 General Election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a survey on their laptop, tablet, smartphone or other electronic device.

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