In FL Governor’s Duel, Democrat Crist Now In the Spotlight, Democrat Crist Now In The Lead – Newly Atop Republican Scott in Dramatic Swing

SurveyUSA Operations - 07/22/14 01:49 PM

Charlie Crist made news last week when he named a running mate, and that appears to resonate with Florida’s likely voters, who now have Crist 6 points atop Republican Rick Scott, 46% to 40%, according to WFLA-TV’s latest tracking poll in the contest.

2 weeks ago, Crist trailed Scott by 2. As Crist has enjoyed nonstop media attention over the past 5 days, which happen to coincide with SurveyUSA’s field period for this survey, Crist’s poll numbers benefited as well. In 8 WFLA-TV / SurveyUSA tracking polls going back to 04/15/14, Crist has led on 5 occasions, though never by as much as the 6 points he does today. Scott has led in 3 of the 8 tracking polls, though never by more than 2 percentage points.

Among women, Crist had led by 3, now leads by 10, a gain of 7 points.
Among men, Crist had trailed by 7, now is tied, a gain of 7.
Among moderates, a key constituency for any Democrat who hopes to win elected office, Crist leads by 22 points, up from 13 points 2 weeks ago.
Among Independents, Scott and Crist are effectively tied, a 10 point improvement for Crist poll-on-poll.
The 08/26/14 FL Primary has not been held yet, and Crist has not yet won his party’s nomination.
After the primary, 2 months of intense campaigning remain before voting begins; these poll numbers can and will change during those 60 days.

Looking ahead to the 2016 election for president in the pivotal state of Florida, hypothetical head-to-head polling by SurveyUSA for WFLA-TV shows the following:

Hillary Clinton 49%.
Chris Christie 38%.

Chris Christie 48%.
Joe Biden 39%.

Hillary Clinton 46%.
Rand Paul 42%.

Rand Paul 47%.
Joe Biden 39%.

Hillary Clinton 53%.
Marco Rubio 39%.

Marco Rubio 46%.
Joe Biden 43%.

Hillary Clinton 47%.
Jeb Bush 41%.

Jeb Bush 47%.
Joe Biden 38%.

As always, cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 state of Florida adults 07/17/14 through 07/21/14. Of the adults, 839 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 564 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

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