In KS-04, Men Take Fresh Look At Challenger Tiahrt, Who Draws Closer to Incumbent Pompeo in Fast-Approaching GOP Primary

SurveyUSA Operations - 07/23/14 08:51 PM

2 weeks until votes are counted in the 08/05/14 Republican Primary in Kansas’ 4th Congressional District, with early voting underway, former Congressman Todd Tiahrt has momentum, and is closing on incumbent Mike Pompeo, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for KSN-TV in Wichita.

When SurveyUSA first looked at the contest 5 weeks ago, Tiahrt had just announced his intention to jump into the race. Back then, SurveyUSA found Pompeo ahead by 17 points. Fast forward to today, with the campaign in full swing: SurveyUSA finds Pompeo ahead by just 7 points, 46% to 39%. Poll-on-poll, Pompeo is down 5 points, Tiahrt is up 5 points.

What will happen over the final 2 weeks of the campaign? Is it safe to draw a straight line extending SurveyUSA’s interactive tracking graph and say that Tiahrt will catch Pompeo by Primary Day? That’s one plausible scenario. Can you look at today’s data and say that Tiahrt has peaked, and this is the closest he will ever draw to Pompeo. That’s another plausible scenario. The answer today is ultimately unknowable. Only 2 weeks from now, in retrospect, will we know for sure the significance of today’s numbers. To state the obvious: voter turnout will decide who gets the 08/05/14 nomination, and in turn who wins the seat, in the general election on 11/04/14.

Where is there movement poll-on-poll?

Among men, Pompeo had led by 19 points, today leads by 3 points, a 16-point swing to Tiahrt.
Among voters with a high-school education, Pompeo had led by 28, now by 1, a 27-point swing to Tiahrt.
Among conservatives, Pompeo had led by 27, now by 15, a 12-point swing to Tiahrt.
Among lower-income voters, Pompeo had led by 6, now trails Tiahrt by 2, an 8-point swing to Tiahrt.
Among voters under the age of 50, Pompeo had led by 15 points, now leads by 6, a 9-point swing to Tiahrt.

Against this backdrop, it is important to remember that although Tiahrt appears to have momentum, Pompeo still leads. Which candidate succeeds in getting his voters to return an early ballot, and which candidate succeeds in getting his Primary Day voters to the polls on 08/05/14, will ultimately emerge victorious.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research, which was conducted 100% by telephone. SurveyUSA interviewed 900 registered voters from Kansas’ 4th Congressional District 07/17/14 through 07/21/14, using Registration Based Sample (RBS), which is also known as Voter List Sample, purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. To qualify for inclusion, a household needed to have voted in at least one previous Congressional primary. Of the 900 registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 671 were likely to vote in the 08/05/14 Primary. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (also known as: cell-phone respondents), were called on their cell phones, by live operators, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent’s cooperation, conducted the interview, and remained on the line until the completion of the interview. You must credit KSN-TV if you cite these results.

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