11 Weeks Till GA Votes are Counted, Republicans Positioned to ‘Run the Table’ in Top 6 Statewide Contests; Will Libertarians Force Runoffs?

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 08/19/14 10:17 AM

2 months till early voting begins and 11 weeks until votes are counted, Georgia Republicans lead in races for US Senator, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General and School Superintendent, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WXIA-TV, the Gannett-owned station in Atlanta. In Georgia, a winning candidate needs 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff, which this election would be 12/02/14 for statewide contests and 01/06/15 for the US Senate contest.

In an election today for US Senator, to fill an open seat vacated by Saxby Chambliss, Republican David Perdue defeats Democrat Michelle Nunn 50% to 41%. (Michelle is Sam Nunn’s daughter.) Libertarian Amanda Swafford gets 3% today. 6% are undecided. Perdue’s lead comes entirely from men, where he leads by 19 points. Atlanta votes Democratic. Northwest GA votes 2:1 Republican. South and East GA votes 5:4 Republican. The contest has national ramifications; Republicans need to hold the seat to have a chance to capture control of the U.S. Senate in the next Congress.

In an election today for Governor, incumbent Republican Nathan Deal defeats Democratic challenger Jason Carter 48% to 39%. (Jason is the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter.) Libertarian Andrew Hunt gets 4% today. 8% are undecided. Deal holds 83% of the Republican base. Carter holds 82% of the Democratic base. Independents break sharply Republican. Moderates provide some but not presently enough support for Carter to catch Deal. Libertarian Hunt takes more votes from the Republican Deal than he does from the Democrat Carter.

In an election today for Lieutenant Governor, incumbent Republican Casey Cagle defeats Democratic challenger Connie Stokes, 52% to 36%. Cagle holds 90% of the Republican base.

In an election today for Secretary of State, incumbent Republican Brian Kemp defeats Democratic challenger Doreen Carter 53% to 36%. Carter trails by 9 points among women.

In an election today for Attorney General, incumbent Republican Sam Olens defeats Democratic challenger Greg Hecht, 49% to 36%. Hecht has a 5-point advantage among lower-income voters, but he is overpowered by Olens among middle-income and upper-income voters.

In an election today for State School Superintendent, Republican Richard Woods defeats Democrat Valarie Wilson 51% to 39%. Among voters who support the “Common Core” school standards, the Democrat Wilson leads 2:1. Among those who oppose Common Core, the Republican Woods leads 6:1.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,100 state of Georgia adults 08/14/14 through 08/17/14. Of the adults, 953 were registered to vote. Of those registered to vote, 560 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone, or other portable device.

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