With Libertarian Wyllie on the Ballot in Florida, Republican Scott Now Leads Democrat Crist by 3

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 08/19/14 11:37 PM

In this 10th tracking poll for WFLA-TV in Tampa, SurveyUSA adds the name of Libertarian Adrian Wyllie to the “who would you vote for” question, and finds the results largely consistent with previous releases, where survey respondents could select an option for “some other candidate” to express support for Wyllie.

Today, it’s incumbent Republican Rick Scott 44%, Democratic challenger Charlie Crist 41%, Wyllie 4%. Wyllie appears to take ever-so-slightly more votes from Scott than from Crist, an analysis of the results reveals. That’s because in 8 out of the 9 previous WFLA-TV tracking polls, Scott has led among independent voters, but today, with Wyllie siphoning off 12% of the independents, Crist leads among independents 37% to 30%.

2 weeks ago, Scott led by 2 points, today by 3. Crist suffers from an apparent weakening of his support in Southeast Florida (which includes Miami and Fort Lauderdale). Previously, Crist had led in the Southeast by as many as 25 points, and most recently by 18 points, but today leads there by just 5. In Central FL, often a battleground, Scott today leads by 8. Crist today leads by 5 among voters under age 50; Scott today leads by 7 among voters age 50+. Scott leads by 3 among men and leads by 3 among women.

Scott holds 79% of the Republican base. Crist holds 76% of the Democratic base. Conservatives, as expected, break 8:1 for Scott. Liberals, as expected, break 8:1 for Crist. Moderates, a critical swing group, break for Crist 52% to 29%.

Looking ahead to the 2016 presidential election, Democrat Hillary Clinton keeps Florida’s critical 29 electoral college votes blue if she is opposed by a resurrected Mitt Romney. But Romney turns Florida red if he is opposed by Democrat Joe Biden. This is consistent with previous WFLA-TV polling, which shows that Clinton defeats each and every high-profile Republican in an election today, holding the state for the Democrats, but Biden loses to each and every high-profile Republican today. 270 electoral college votes are needed to win the White House; Florida alone accounts for 11% of the total needed.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents are included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 adults 08/15/14 through 08/18/14. Of the adults, 852 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 564 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. In this release, cell-phone respondents favor Crist by 11 points. Landline respondents favor Scott by 7 points. You must credit WFLA-TV if you air, cite or publish these results in whole or in part.

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