Portland Public School Bond Issue 26-193 Has Early Advantage, But Will That Be Enough to Pass When Votes Are Counted in 19 Days?

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 149 days ago

As ballots begin to show up in the U.S. mailboxes of those who live in the Portland OR Public School District, support for bond issue 26-193 is significantly greater than opposition, according to a KATU-TV News Poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

In a hypothetical election today, Yes on 26-193 leads No 46% to 27%. Another 27% of those who tell SurveyUSA they are certain to return a mailed ballot before the deadline tell SurveyUSA they are not yet certain how they will vote on 26-193.

Should the referendum pass with 50% of the vote (plus 1), the school district will be able to float $790 million in bonds to pay for the removal of lead, and the cyclical modernization of aging school properties. The $790 million in school bonds would be the largest issued in state history.

Younger voters, with the most to gain, are overwhelmingly in favor of the ballot measure, 9:1. Older voters, who will see their taxes increase but most of whom no longer have kids in school, split: 33% in favor, 33% opposed, 34% not certain.

Though the ballot measure is non-partisan, Republicans oppose it, Democrats and Independents support it. Conservatives vote No by 5:3, liberals vote Yes by 4:1. The most affluent voters vote Yes 2:1; the least affluent voters vote Yes by 3:2.

Opposition to all ballot measures, having nothing uniquely to do with Portland, with Oregon, or with 2017, increases as Election Day approaches. Typically, the first measure of a ballot measure (which this is) is the poll that shows the measure passing by the largest margin. Subsequent polls typically show opposition increasing. It remains to be seen whether opposition to 26-193 will materialize in force, or materialize only in theory.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from the Portland Public School District 04/24/17 through 04/27/17. Of the adults, 748 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 508 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to return a ballot before votes are counted 05/16/17. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (68% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (aka: the cell-phone respondents, 32% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

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