In 21-Candidate Free-For-All For Open Seattle Mayor Seat, McGinn and Durkan Fight For Right To Advance to Run-Off; Hasegawa, Oliver and Farrell Clustered in Second Tier, All Others With Insignificant Support, 42 Days Till Votes Counted

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 34 days ago

YOU MUST CREDIT KING-TV IF YOU AIR, CITE, PUBLISH OR BROADCAST THESE RESULTS IN WHOLE OR PART.

With embattled incumbent Seattle Mayor Ed Murray out of the running, former Mayor Mike McGinn and former US Attorney Jenny Durkan emerge from a crowded field as early front runners, according to a SurveyUSA poll commissioned by KING-TV. But: even among those who say they are certain to vote before the August 1 deadline, nearly 4 in 10 are undecided, and the contest remains wide open for any of 3 second-tier candidates to overtake the front-runners.

At this hour, 3 weeks till ballots are mailed and 6 weeks till votes are counted, the contest stands:

19% McGinn.
14% Durkan.
9% Nikkita Oliver, an artist.
8% Bob Hasegawa, a state senator.
6% Jessyn Farrell, a state representative.
3% Cary Moon, a civic activist.
1% Gary E. Brose, an entrepreneur.
14 other candidates have less than 1% support.

The top 2 finishers on 08/01/17 advance to a run-off in November.

1 in 3 likely voters say Murray should have run for re-election. Approximately that same number, 1 in 3, say they would have voted for Murray if he were on the ballot. Of those whose first choice would have been Murry, 27% vote for McGinn, 11% vote for Durkan, 8% vote for Farrell — but 37% of Murray supporters don’t yet have a 2nd choice.

McGinn’s support is young, male, and middle-income. Durkan’s support is older, female, and affluent. Both Hasegawa and Oliver over-perform among the city’s significant Asian population. Though the contest is non-partisan, Republicans and conservatives line up for McGinn; liberals and Democrats throw in for Oliver. Durkan draws from independents.

2 of 3 Seattle adults say they would be “for” a plan to impose a new tax on those city residents whose incomes are in the top 5 percent.

76% of Seattle adults say the city has “too little” affordable housing; 11% say Seattle has “just the right amount” of affordable housing; 7% say the city has “too much” affordable housing.

48% support a proposal to rezone parts of Seattle to allow multi-family homes in areas that today only permit single-family homes. 29% oppose. Opposition is strongest among senior citizens.

Seattle is divided over a proposed tax on soda and other sweetened drinks. 31% say they would support such a tax, regardless of how the money raised is used; another 31% say they would oppose such a tax, regardless of how the money raised is used. 38% say their answer depends on how the money would be used. When told the money from the proposed soda tax would go to fund low-income education, 61% support the tax; 25% oppose.

53% in Seattle say drug abuse is a “major problem” in the city; another 17% say it is a crisis. By 2:1, residents say proposed “safe injection centers” would do more good than harm.

48% say homelessness in Seattle is a “major problem”; another 38% say it is a crisis. When asked what Seattle’s next mayor should do first to combat homelessness, 30% say taxes should be raised to fund affordable housing and drug treatment; 24% say the city should establish more sanctioned RV and tent camps; 15% say police should break up any illegal camping and get tough on panhandling; 10% say the city should reduce the services it offers in order to change its reputation for generosity.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 city of Seattle adults 06/06/17 through 06/18/17. Of the adults, 800 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 503 who were most likely to vote in the 08/01/17 primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (39% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in he recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (61% of likely voters), were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.


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