In 21-Candidate Free-For-All For Open Seattle Mayor Seat, McGinn and Durkan Fight For Right To Advance to Run-Off; Hasegawa, Oliver and Farrell Clustered in Second Tier, All Others With Insignificant Support, 42 Days Till Votes Counted

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 91 days ago


With embattled incumbent Seattle Mayor Ed Murray out of the running, former Mayor Mike McGinn and former US Attorney Jenny Durkan emerge from a crowded field as early front runners, according to a SurveyUSA poll commissioned by KING-TV. But: even among those who say they are certain to vote before the August 1 deadline, nearly 4 in 10 are undecided, and the contest remains wide open for any of 3 second-tier candidates to overtake the front-runners.

At this hour, 3 weeks till ballots are mailed and 6 weeks till votes are counted, the contest stands:

19% McGinn.
14% Durkan.
9% Nikkita Oliver, an artist.
8% Bob Hasegawa, a state senator.
6% Jessyn Farrell, a state representative.
3% Cary Moon, a civic activist.
1% Gary E. Brose, an entrepreneur.
14 other candidates have less than 1% support.

The top 2 finishers on 08/01/17 advance to a run-off in November.

1 in 3 likely voters say Murray should have run for re-election. Approximately that same number, 1 in 3, say they would have voted for Murray if he were on the ballot. Of those whose first choice would have been Murry, 27% vote for McGinn, 11% vote for Durkan, 8% vote for Farrell — but 37% of Murray supporters don’t yet have a 2nd choice.

McGinn’s support is young, male, and middle-income. Durkan’s support is older, female, and affluent. Both Hasegawa and Oliver over-perform among the city’s significant Asian population. Though the contest is non-partisan, Republicans and conservatives line up for McGinn; liberals and Democrats throw in for Oliver. Durkan draws from independents.

2 of 3 Seattle adults say they would be “for” a plan to impose a new tax on those city residents whose incomes are in the top 5 percent.

76% of Seattle adults say the city has “too little” affordable housing; 11% say Seattle has “just the right amount” of affordable housing; 7% say the city has “too much” affordable housing.

48% support a proposal to rezone parts of Seattle to allow multi-family homes in areas that today only permit single-family homes. 29% oppose. Opposition is strongest among senior citizens.

Seattle is divided over a proposed tax on soda and other sweetened drinks. 31% say they would support such a tax, regardless of how the money raised is used; another 31% say they would oppose such a tax, regardless of how the money raised is used. 38% say their answer depends on how the money would be used. When told the money from the proposed soda tax would go to fund low-income education, 61% support the tax; 25% oppose.

53% in Seattle say drug abuse is a “major problem” in the city; another 17% say it is a crisis. By 2:1, residents say proposed “safe injection centers” would do more good than harm.

48% say homelessness in Seattle is a “major problem”; another 38% say it is a crisis. When asked what Seattle’s next mayor should do first to combat homelessness, 30% say taxes should be raised to fund affordable housing and drug treatment; 24% say the city should establish more sanctioned RV and tent camps; 15% say police should break up any illegal camping and get tough on panhandling; 10% say the city should reduce the services it offers in order to change its reputation for generosity.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 city of Seattle adults 06/06/17 through 06/18/17. Of the adults, 800 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 503 who were most likely to vote in the 08/01/17 primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (39% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in he recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (61% of likely voters), were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

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