In 18-Person Contest for Open Atlanta Mayor’s Seat, Norwood Well-Positioned to Advance to December Runoff, But Who Will She Face?

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 33 days ago

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Will it be Mary Norwood against Caesar Mitchell?
Will it be Mary Norwood against Keisha Lance Bottoms?
Will it be Mary Norwood against Kwanza Hall?
Will it be Mary Norwood against Vincent Fort?

111 days until votes are counted in the election for Mayor of Atlanta, one thing is clear: Mary Norwood is well-positioned to advance to a December 2-person runoff, in the most-likely scenario that Norwood herself does not get 50% of the vote on Election Day, 11/07/17.

18 candidates are on the ballot to replace city of Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed, who is term limited. Among the city’s most likely voters, at this hour:

* 27% vote for Norwood, a city council member and long-time civic activist.
* 10% vote for Mitchell, who is city council President.
* 9% vote for Bottoms, a city council member.
* 9% vote for Hall, a city council member.
* 8% vote for Fort, a state senator.
* 6% vote for Peter Aman, former Chief Operating Officer of Atlanta.
* 6% vote for Cathy Woolard, a former city council member.
* 4% vote for John Eaves, chairman of the Fulton County Commission.
* 10 other candidates have 1% or less support.
* 20% of likely voters are undecided today, 3 months until early voting begins.

History repeats itself. Norwood ran for Mayor in 2009. In a 6-person field, she defeated Reed 46% to 36% in the general election. But because Norwood did not reach the 50% threshold, Reed and Norwood (the top two finishers in the general election) faced each other in a runoff, which Reed won by a handful of votes. Reed served 2 terms as Mayor and may not seek a 3rd. Today, Norwood leads by 17 points, but whose support would she pick-up in a runoff? Among white voters, Woolard finishes 2nd, with 13% of the vote to Norwood’s 39%. Among African Americans, who are a majority in the city, Norwood leads with 19% to 15% for Mitchell and 14% for Bottoms.

Norwood’s support is disproportionately older; she gets 38% of the vote among seniors. Among the city’s youngest voters, Norwood and Hall tie. Although the mayor’s race is non-partisan, Norwood gets 52% among those who identify as a Republican. Among those who identify as a Democrat, Norwood leads Mitchell by 9 points. Among those who identify as an independent, Norwood is 15 points ahead of Bottoms.

Among voters with a high-school education, Norwood leads Mitchell by 4 points. Among voters with a 4-year college degree, Norwood leads Mitchell by 18 points. Among those who have lived in Atlanta for less than 10 years, Hall and Mitchell tie for 1st place. But among those who have lived in Atlanta for 30 or more years, Norwood has 3 times the support of her nearest rival.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,085 adults from the city of Atlanta 07/11/17 through 07/18/17. Of the adults, 961 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 527 who were likely to vote in the November general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. This analysis is a material part of the survey’s results.


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