14 pollsters competed in the Florida Republican Primary. Only 2 pollsters released real-time poll results on how cell phone respondents and home phone respondents voted, so scholars could compare the two groups. Turns out: those 2 pollsters, Marist Institute and SurveyUSA, had the smallest error (the best performance) of the 14 competing pollsters.
Not all pollsters […]

In the 11/03/09 special election in California’s 10th Congressional District, SurveyUSA said John Garamendi would win by 10 points. Garamendi won by 10 points. Credit to SurveyUSA’s media partner, KPIX-TV of San Francisco, who paid for this research and who distinguished itself with excellent election coverage. For those focusing on SurveyUSA for the first time, […]

13 pollsters competed in the 11/03/09 New Jersey Governor’s contest. No pollster was more accurate than SurveyUSA. Credit to SurveyUSA’s media partner, WABC-TV in New York City, who paid for these polls and who distinguished itself with excellent election coverage.

12 pollsters competed in the 11/03/09 Virginia Governor’s contest. No pollster was more accurate than SurveyUSA. Credit to SurveyUSA’s media partners, WJLA-TV in Washington DC and WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, who paid for these surveys and distinguished themselves with excellent election coverage.

Three pollsters competed in the 11/03/09 NYC Mayor’s contest. SurveyUSA was the most accurate. Credit to SurveyUSA’s media partner, WABC-TV in New York City, who paid for these polls and who distinguished itself with excellent election coverage.

American Research Group (ARG) was the most accurate pollster in the Kentucky Democratic Primary by 6 of 8 measures. (click on the chart until legible)

Chart includes all polls released within 7 days of the Primary. Older, “stale” polls, released more than 7 days before the Primary, are not displayed.

Public Policy Polling (PPP) was the most accurate pollster in the 05/20/08 Oregon Democratic Presidential Primary by every measure. (click on the chart until legible)

Chart includes all polls released within 7 days of the Primary. Older, “stale” polls, released more than 7 days before the Primary, are not displayed.

SurveyUSA was the only media pollster to poll today’s 03/08/08 special election in Illinois’ 14th Congressional Election. The contest was to fill the the seat left vacant when Republican Dennis Hastert, the former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, resigned. In general, special “stand-alone” elections (where there is nothing else on the ballot to […]

Mark Blumenthal, writing in today’s 02/28/08 National Journal, “Telling Good Polls From Bad,” wonders for the third time about which polls and which pollsters ought to be included in any “Pollster Report Card.” I have for two weeks owed Blumenthal a response to his initial question about whether pollsters who release polls closer to Election […]

How can you tell the difference between one election poll and another? Here’s a start … (keep clicking on the graphic until the size is legible).

Your help filling-in the handful of empty cells (flagged with “?”), is appreciated.
The goal of this undertaking is to better understand the correlation between the methodological choices an election pollster makes and the […]