KY Governor Contest Ends Where it Started, with Democrat Conway Narrowly Atop Republican Bevin; Democrats Appear to Pull Ahead in Contests for Attorney General and State Auditor: Lundergan Grimes Well Positioned to Defeat Knipper for KY Secretary of State; Treasurer Contest Tight

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/28/15 06:59 PM

Heading into the final weekend of campaigning to fill the open seat for Governor of Kentucky, Democrat Jack Conway continues to lead Republican Matt Bevin narrowly, according to this final Bluegrass Poll conducted by SurveyUSA for the Louisville Courier Journal, Lexington Herald Leader, WHAS-TV, and WKYT-TV. In 3 separate SurveyUSA polls going back to 07/29/15, Conway has led by 5 points. Today, at the wire, it’s Conway 45%, Bevin 40%, and Independent Drew Curtis 6%.

Bevin ends the contest with a Minus 6 Net Favorability Rating: 38% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Bevin, compared to 32% who have a favorable opinion. Conway ends the contest with a Plus 4 Net Favorability Rating: 36% of voters have a favorable opinion of Conway, 32% have an unfavorable opinion. Curtis ends the contest where he started, largely unknown: 80% of voters have no opinion of Curtis, or have a neutral opinion of him.

Conway siphons from Bevin 8% of likely voters who identify themselves as “Strong Republicans,” 10% of likely voters who identify themselves as “Republicans,” and 15% of likely voters who identify themselves as “Independents who Lean Republican.” This leakage is combined with 15% of “very conservative” voters who vote Democratic and 21% of “conservative” voters who vote Democratic.

There is late movement in the contest for Attorney General: Democrat Andy Beshear today leads Republican Whitney Westerfield 47% to 35%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 1 month ago, on 09/28/15, the Democrat is up 9 points, the Republican is down 3 points.

There is late movement in the contest for for State Auditor: Incumbent Democrat Adam Edelen today leads Republican Mike Harmon 42% to 34%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 1 month ago, on 09/28/15, the Democrat is up 7 points, the Republican is up 1 point. Edelen had led by 2 points, now by 8 points.

There is late movement in the contest for State Agricultural Commissioner: Republican Ryan Quarles today leads Democrat Jean-Marie Lawson Spann 40% to 33%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 1 month ago, on 09/28/15, the Republican Quarles is up 6 points, the Democrat Lawson Spann is up 2 points. Quarles had led by 3 points, today leads by 7 points.

The contest for State Treasurer is too-close-to-call. Republican Allison Ball and Democrat Rick Nelson are separated by 2 points, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error: 37% Ball, 35% Nelson, with 28% of voters either undecided or not following the contest. These results are effectively unchanged from 1 month ago, when Ball had 35% and Nelson had 33%.

At the wire, incumbent Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes appears to pull ahead and defeat Republican Steve Knipper in the contest for KY Secretary of State. Today, it’s Lundergan Grimes 50%, Knipper 37%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 1 month ago, Grimes is up 4 points, Knipper is down 1 point. Grimes had led by 8 points, today leads by 13 points.

Filtering: 1,200 state of Kentucky adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/23/15 through 10/26/15. Of the adults, 1,016 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 798 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/03/15 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smart phone, tablet or other electronic device.

In Houston Mayor Election, 5 Candidates Have Chance to Advance to Runoff; None Likely to Win Seat Outright on 11/03/15

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/17/15 08:40 AM

In an election for Houston Mayor today, 10/15/2015, 19 days until votes are counted, no candidate approaches the majority required to win the seat outright and avoid a runoff, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KPRC-TV in Houston.

Today, State Representative Sylvester Turner finishes just ahead of the rest of the pack of 13 candidates with 20% of the vote; attorney Bill King gets 14%, neck-and-neck with former Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia at 13%, former US Representative Chris Bell with 12%, and City Councilmember Stephen Costello at 11%. Two other named candidates are in single digits; 3% would vote for one of the other candidates on the ballot; 22% today are undecided.

Turner leads by 6:1 among African Americans and is strong among older voters and Democrats. King is strong among those most concerned with the city budget. Garcia leads by more than 2:1 among Hispanics and edges out Turner among those voters who say city taxes and fees will be the most important issue in determining their vote for mayor.

25% of Likely voters identify the economy and jobs as the most important issue in this election, and Costello leads among those voters. 17% say the city budget is the most important issue; King holds a significant lead among those voters. The 15% of voters who say the Houston Equal Rights Ordinance is most important split their support between Turner and Bell.

Voting on Houston’s Proposition One, the Houston Equal Rights Ordinance, is too close to call at this hour. Today, 45% of likely voters would vote yes on the ballot measure; 36% vote no. 20% of voters are undecided. Younger voters, whites, blacks, and Democrats support; Republicans, independents, and Hispanics oppose; older voters are divided.

Filtering: 675 Houston adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/12/15 through 10/14/15. Of the adults, 567 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 504 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/03/15 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (61% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (39% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smart phone, tablet or other electronic device.

3 of 4 SFO Voters Won’t Vote For Incumbent Sheriff Ross Mirkarimi; Former Interim Sheriff Hennessy Has Early Lead In First-Choice Ballots

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/05/15 10:30 PM

In a ranked-choice election for San Francisco Sheriff today, 10/05/15, one month until votes are counted, former interim Sheriff Vicki Hennessy takes 47% of likely voters’ first choice votes, according to this latest exclusive KPIX-TV News Poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Incumbent Ross Mirkarimi gets 20% of first-choice votes; security firm owner John Robinson takes 8%.

Robinson takes 40% of 2nd choice ballots; Hennessy 19%: Mirkarimi 12%.

Voters who didn’t rank Mirkarimi as either their 1st or 2nd choice were asked why they weren’t voting for him. 39% cited his involvement in a 2012 domestic violence incident; 31% pointed to his position on San Francisco’s sanctuary city law; 17% cite other factors.

Filtering: 875 San Francisco adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/01/15 through 10/04/15. Of the adults, 748 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 504 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/03/15 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (81% of adults; 88% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (19% of adults; 12% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smart phone, tablet or other electronic device.

No Movement in Kentucky Governor’s Race Over Past 60 Days: Democrat Conway Still 5 Points Atop Republican Bevin; Contests for Attorney General, Auditor, Treasurer, Ag Commissioner Effectively Tied Heading Into Campaign’s Final Month

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/05/15 06:19 AM

In the Kentucky contest to replace popular Democratic Governor Steve Beshear, Democrat Jack Conway narrowly leads Republican Matt Bevin today, 5 weeks till votes are counted. The contest is unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA poll released 07/29/15, which, like this one, is sponsored by the Louisville Courier-Journal, The Lexington Herald-Leader, WHAS-TV and WKYT-TV.

Conway gets 42% in an election today, Bevin gets 37%, Independent Drew Curtis gets 7%. All 3 candidates are down 1 point from July; a fierce campaign has succeeded only in raising the number of undecided voters from 11% on 07/29/15 to 15% today. Curtis hurts the Democrat Conway slightly more than he hurts the Republican Bevin. Curtis gets 12% of the vote from those who say they are “very liberal,” compared to 6% of the vote of those who say they are “very conservative.” 17% of “very conservative” KY voters cross-over and vote Democratic in the Governor’s contest; each one of those “very conservative” voters is vital to Bevin’s chances to turn the statehouse from Blue to Red.

Conway’s Net Favorability Rating is Plus 4 (37% of registered voters have a favorable impression of him, compared to 33% who have a negative impression.) Bevin’s favorability is Plus 2 (35% of registered voters have a favorable impression of him, compared to 33% who have a negative impression). Sitting Governor Steve Beshear, who is term-limited and not seeking re-election, has a Plus 18 Net Favorability Rating (50% of registered voters have a favorable impression of Beshear, compared to 32% who have a negative impression). 30% of voters say Conway is more honest than his two competitors. 27% of voters say Bevin is more honest than his two competitors. 13% say Curtis is the most honest. 33% trust Conway to better handle new federal environmental rules that limit carbon emissions. 29% trust Bevin.

In an election for Secretary of State today, well-known Democratic incumbent Alison Lundergan Grimes leads Republican Steve Knipper by 8 points, 46% to 38%. Grimes leads in every age group, and leads among lower-income and middle-income voters. Knipper leads among upper-income voters, and in Southwest KY, which is roughly the same as Congressional District #1, and in West Central KY, which is roughly equivalent to Congressional District #2. Grimes leads in KY Congressional Districts 3, 4, 5 and 6.

In an election today for KY Attorney General, Republican Whitney Westerfield and Democrat Andy Beshear tie, 38% to 38%. Compared to identical SurveyUSA research 60 days ago, Beshear is down 2 points, Westerfield is up 5 points, a 7-point swing to the right. Westerfield today leads narrowly among the youngest and oldest voters; Beshear leads among middle-aged voters. Westerfield leads narrowly among white voters; Beshear is competitive because he captures 3 of every 4 African American voters. The Republican leads in Congressional Districts 1, 2, and 6; the Democrat leads in Congressional Districts 3 and 4. The candidates split the vote in Congressional District 5.

In an election today for KY State Auditor, Incumbent Democrat Adam Edelen and Republican Mike Harmon run effectively even, 35% for Edelen, 33% for Harmon — within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error and a 2-point nominal advantage for the Democrat that may or may not be statistically significant. The younger the electorate on Election Day, the better for Harmon. The older the electorate on Election Day, the better for Edelen. The more educated the electorate, the better for Edelen, who leads by 13 points among those with a 4-year college degree. The more middle-income the electorate, the better for Harmon, who leads by 4 among voters with household income between $40,000 and $80,000 per year. 27% of likely voters are undecided in this contest, which makes either outcome possible.

In an election today for KY State Treasurer, Republican Allison Ball and Democrat Rick Nelson run effectively even, 35% for Ball, 33% for Nelson — within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error and a 2-point nominal advantage for the Republican that may or may not be statistically significant. The lead has flipped since SurveyUSA’s last look at this contest: then, Nelson led by 3 points; today, Ball leads by 2, a 5-point shift in favor the Republican. Today, Ball leads by 5 points among white voters, and leads narrowly among both men and women. 54% of independents, and 28% of voters overall, are undecided in this contest, which means that there is a plausible path to victory for either candidate.

In an election today for state Agriculture Commissioner, Republican Ryan Quarles edges Democrat Jean-Marie Lawson Spann 34% to 31%. But, because these results are at the boundary of the theoretical margin of sampling error, and because 29% of likely voters are undecided in the contest, either candidate may win. Quarles leads decisively in Congressional Districts 1, 2 and 6, and leads narrowly in Congressional District 5. Lawson Spann leads in Congressional Districts 3 and 4.

Filtering: 1,000 state of Kentucky adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 09/22/15 through 09/27/15. Of the adults, 866 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 701 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/03/15 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (68% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (32% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smart phone, tablet or other electronic device.

Labor Day Look at the 2016 General Election For President: Every Democrat Trails Trump, Though Narrowly

SurveyUSA Operations - 09/05/15 07:00 AM

In an election for President of the United States, today, business provocateur Donald Trump narrowly defeats Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Al Gore, in head-to-head matchups, according to nationwide polling conducted by SurveyUSA.

Today it’s:

Trump 45%, Clinton 40%. (There is a 20-point Gender Gap; Trump leads by 18 points among seniors.)
Trump 44%, Sanders 40%. (Trump leads by 10 among independents and by 6 among moderates.)
Trump 44%, Biden 42%. (Trump leads by 10 among the best educated; Biden leads by 17 among the least educated.)
Trump 44%, Gore 41%. (Trump leads by 12 among men and by 18 among voters age 50+.)

Among a subset of registered voters who tell SurveyUSA that they pay “a lot” of attention to politics, the scale tilts to the right: Today it’s:

Trump 54%, Clinton 36%.
Trump 53%, Sanders 39%.
Trump 53%, Biden 37%.
Trump 54%, Gore 36%.

Voters were asked whether they support a given Democrat “enthusiastically,” “with reservations,” or, whether they are “holding their nose” voting for a particular candidate.

57% of Clinton voters say they are voting enthusiastically.
53% of Sanders voters say they are voting enthusiastically.
49% of Biden backers say they are voting enthusiastically.
45% of Gore voters say they are voting enthusiastically.

By contrast:

8% of Clinton supporters say they are holding their nose.
8% of Sanders voters say they are holding their nose.
9% of Biden voters say they are holding their nose.
12% of Gore voters say they are holding their nose.

Voters were asked, regardless of whether they were Democrats or Republicans, and regardless of whom they might vote for in a primary, who they thought would be the major party nominees. Today, Labor Day, voters handicap the primary contests this way:

44% say Clinton will be the Democratic Party nominee.
22% say Biden will be the nominee.
14% say Sanders will be the nominee.
3% say Gore.
9% say someone else.

30% say Trump will be the Republican party nominee.
20% say Jeb Bush will the the GOP nominee.
14% say Ben Carson will be the GOP nominee.
6% say Ted Cruz will be the nominee.
4% say Marco Rubio will be the nominee.
4% say John Kasich will be the nominee.
3% say Carly Fiorina will be the nominee.
2% say Scott Walker will be the nominee.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents are included in this survey. SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 USA adults 09/02/15 and 09/03/15. Of the adults, 900 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 58% (522) pay “a lot” of attention to politics. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (62% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home (landline) telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (38% of registered voters) were shown a question on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Cell respondents, as is typically the case, vote more Democratic than do landline respondents. Among just the universe of cell-phone respondents, Clinton defeats Trump by 16 points; Sanders defeats Trump by 12 points; Biden defeats Trump by 17 points; and Gore defeats Trump by 17 points. The more cell-phone respondents a pollster includes in its “mix” of voters, the more Democratic the poll results will be.

Republican Bevin within Striking Distance, But Democrat Conway in the Lead, 3 Months Till KY Elects a New Governor

SurveyUSA Operations - 08/05/15 08:03 PM

A tight fight shapes up in Kentucky’s open Governor’s seat, where, in an election today, 100 days until votes are counted, Democrat Jack Conway edges Republican Matt Bevin 45% to 42%. This latest Bluegrass Poll, commissioned by the Louisville Courier-Journal, the Lexington Herald-Leader, WHAS-TV, and WKYT-TV, highlights 6 statewide contests on the 11/03/15 ballot, each decided at this hour by 7 or fewer points.

In a 2-person Governor’s race, Bevin suffers because 15% of those who tell SurveyUSA they are “very conservative” cross-over and vote for the Democrat Conway. Bevin needs every one of these “very conservative” votes to win. Moderates break 2:1 Democrat. And Kentucky’s few liberals, as expected, vote overwhelmingly Blue. 13% of likely voters today are undecided. When all registered voters are asked which of the 2 candidates is better qualified to deal with the state worker pension system, voters split: 37% name Conway, 36% name Bevin. When registered voters are asked who is better qualified to manage KY’s state budget, voters split: 38% say Conway, 38% say Bevin.

In a 2-person Governor’s race:

* Bevin leads by 19 points in Southwest KY, which maps closely to KY Congressional District #1.
* Bevin Leads by 13 points in West Central KY, which maps closely to KY Congressional District #2.
* Bevin leads by a nominal 2 points in Northern KY, which maps closely to KY Congressional District #4.
* Conway leads by 30 points in Jefferson County, which maps closely to KY Congressional District #3.
* Conway leads by a nominal 3 points in Eastern KY, which maps closely to KY Congressional District #5.
* And, Conway leads by 11 points in Central KY, which maps closely to KY Congressional District #6.

If Independent Drew Curtis is on the 11/03/15 Gubernatorial ballot, Curtis today captures 8% of the likely vote, and takes slightly more votes from the Republican than from the Democrat. A 3-way contest today ends with Conway leading by 5 points: Conway 43%, Bevin 38%, Curtis 8%, with 11% undecided. Of Bevin supporters in a 2-person race, 7% vote for Curtis in a 3-person race. Of Conway supporters in a 2-person race, 5% vote for Curtis in a 3-person race.

In an election for KY Attorney General today, Democrat Andy Beshear, son of sitting Governor Steve Beshear, leads Republican Whitney Westerfield 40% to 33%. 24% of likely voters are undecided at this hour. An additional 3% of likely voters are not following the contest.

In an election for KY Secretary of State, Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes leads Republican Steve Knipper 46% to 40%, with 12% of likely voters undecided and another 2% of likely voters not following the contest.

In an election for KY State Auditor, Democrat Adam Edelen leads Republican Mike Harmon 35% to 31%, with 30% of likely voters undecided, and another 4% of likely voters not following the contest.

In the contest for State Treasurer, Democrat Rick Nelson leads Republican Allison Ball 36% to 33%, with 29% of likely voters undecided and another 2% of likely voters not following the contest.

In the contest for State Agriculture Commissioner, Republican Ryan Quarles and Democrat Jean-Marie Lawson Spann run effectively even, with Quarles at 33%, Lawson Spann at 32%, 30% undecided and another 5% not following the contest. Quarles’ nominal 1-point advantage is not statistically significant; the contest should be characterized as even, at this hour.

Separately:

53% of registered voters disagree with the Supreme Court of the United States’ decision which made same-sex marriage the law of the land. 38% agree with the Supreme Court.

Gubernatorial candidate Bevin disagrees with the Supreme Court decision; Gubernatorial candidate Conway agrees with the decision. 24% of registered voters say this makes them “much” more likely to vote for Conway. An offsetting 26% say this makes them “much” more likely to vote for Bevin. Another 25% of voters say the candidates’ positions on same-sex marriage do not affect their vote one way or the other.

KY voters split on whether County Clerks should be allowed to refuse to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples who wish to marry. 36% say clerks should be allowed to refuse to issue marriage licenses on religious grounds; 38% say those clerks should be removed from office.

73% statewide say the statue of Jefferson Davis, President of the Confederacy, which stands in the Capitol Rotunda, should remain in place. 17% say the statue should be removed.

Looking ahead 15 months to the election for President of the United States, Kentucky’s Ron Paul and presumptive Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton remain deadlocked in the fight for Kentucky’s 8 electoral college votes. Paul gets 44% today, Clinton gets 42%. Compared to an identical, hypothetical question asked 2 months ago, Clinton is down 3 points, Paul is down 1 point, and undecided is up 3 points, from 11% to now 14%. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried Kentucky by 22 percentage points. In 2008, John McCain carried KY by 16 points.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 adults from the state of KY 07/22/15 through 07/28/15. Of the adults, 856 were registered to vote in KY. Of the registered voters, 685 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/03/15 election for Governor. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a landline telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Respondents to this survey were asked both what their party registration is, and what their party affiliation is. Party registration is reported herein as a binary result: 53% of likely voters are registered Democrat. 35% of likely voters are Republican. (Among registered voters, the split is: 51% D, 34% R.) Separately, the same likely voters were asked to place themselves on a 7-point continuum, from “Strong Republican” to “Strong Democrat.” Those results are also reported herein. In addition, voters were asked to place themselves on a 5-point continuum from “Very Conservative” to “Very Liberal.” Those results are reported herein.

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SurveyUSA Operations - 06/19/15 01:15 PM

Bevin, Comer, Heiner Stagger Toward Finish Line in KY Gubernatorial Republican Primary; No Clear Favorite 1 Week Till Votes Are Counted

SurveyUSA Operations - 05/14/15 12:21 PM

One week till Kentucky Republicans vote in a primary for Governor, candidates Matt Bevin, Hal Heiner, and James Comer are effectively even, according to the Bluegrass Poll released by The Louisville Courier-Journal, The Lexington Herald Leader, WHAS-TV in Louisville and WKYT-TV in Lexington.

There is no clear favorite in the contest at this hour, given the inherent limitations of a sample size of 517 likely Republican primary voters. The 3 candidates may finish one, two, three in any order. Every Republican primary vote will be critical to the emergent victor, who will face Democrat Jack Conway in a general election for Governor on 11/03/15.

Nominally: Bevin is backed by 27% of GOP primary voters … but his support is disproportionately young … and primary voters are disproportionately old. Bevin may under-perform these numbers. Bevin leads among those who identify themselves as “very” conservative. Comer is backed by 26% of GOP primary voters. His support is old; he leads among seniors. Heiner is backed by 25% of GOP primary voters. His backers disproportionately identify themselves as “strong” Republicans.

Western KY votes strongly for Comer. Greater Louisville narrowly prefers Heiner to Bevin. North Central KY overwhelmingly prefers Bevin. Eastern KY splits between Comer and Heiner. The least affluent and most affluent Republican primary voters back Comer. Middle-income Republican Primary voters back Bevin.

Presumptive Democratic nominee Jack Conway, who defeats Geoff Young 5:1 in next week’s primary, has convinced a majority of Democratic primary voters that he neither would side too much with the coal industry (11%), nor side too much with environmentalists (12%), but instead would adopt a balanced approach (58%). Similarly, among Democratic primary voters, 11% say Conway is too conservative, 13% say Conway is too liberal, but an overwhelming majority of Democratic primary voters (63%) say Conway’s political ideology is “just about right.”

In hypothetical head-to-head match-ups for the 11/03/15 general election for Kentucky Governor, among registered KY voters today:

Conway defeats Comer by 6 points, 45% to 39%.
Conway defeats Heiner by 12 points, 48% to 36%.
Conway defeats Bevin by 11 points, 48% to 37%.

Looking ahead to 2016, Republicans primary voters like the Favorite Son, as follows:

Rand Paul, 26%.
Mike Huckabee, 15%.
Jeb Bush, 12%.
Scott Walker 10%.
All other 2016 Republican presidential candidates are in single digits.

In a general election in 2016, where the only two names on the ballot were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand Paul, Bluegrass voters split, 45% for Paul, 45% for Clinton. Election Day is in 78 weeks.

About this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,400 state of KY adults 05/05/15 through 05/10/15. Of the adults, 2,104 were registered to vote in the state of Kentucky. Of the registered voters, 517 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/19/15 Republican Primary, 707 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/19/15 Democratic Primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

NC’s 15 Electoral Votes Up For Grabs In 2016, But Democrat Hillary Clinton Has Slight Edge on Each GOP Contender, 18 Months Till Vote

SurveyUSA Operations - 05/05/15 07:00 AM

In head-to-head Presidential matchups between likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and 5 Republican hopefuls, North Carolina voters are effectively tied in 4 of the cases, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for Time Warner Cable North Carolina. Clinton defeats Scott Walker today by a 9-point margin, leads both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio by 5 points, Rand Paul by 4 points, and both Jeb Bush and “some other Republican” by a slim 2-point margin. Aside from Scott Walker, each result is within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. North Carolina went “red” in 2012, went “blue” in 2008.

1st Look At NC Presidential Primaries: Rubio, Bush, Paul, Walker Tightly Clustered on GOP Side; Clinton Swamps Democratic Opposition

SurveyUSA Operations - 05/04/15 11:21 AM

If the 2016 North Carolina Presidential Primaries were held today, Hillary Clinton would easily win on the Democratic side, while 6 different Republicans all poll within 6 points of one another, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for Time Warner Cable North Carolina.

Among likely voters in the Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton takes 56%. US Senator Elizabeth Warren, who has said she will not run, trails with 11%; Vice President Joe Biden takes 8%: 3 other named candidates each take 3% of the vote. 16% of likely voters in the Democratic primary say they would vote for some other Democrat, or are still undecided.

In the Republican Primary, candidates cluster tightly:

* Marco Rubio gets 16% today and runs most strongly among voters 50+, those with college educations, those with higher incomes, and in Greater Raleigh.
* Jeb Bush takes 15%, drawing strength from moderates and in Southern and Coastal Carolina.
* Rand Paul today gets 14%, and runs 3 times more strongly among voters under age 50 than among voters 50+.
* Scott Walker gets 12%. Among Republicans, Walker gets 11%; among Independents, 22%.
* Mike Huckabee, at 11%, is stronger among younger voters than older voters.
* Ted Cruz takes 10% today. Cruz does twice as well among younger voters than among older voters, and twice as well among Independents than among Republicans.

Chris Christie, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum are further back. 10% would vote for another Republican or are undecided.

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