KY Governor Contest Ends Where it Started, with Democrat Conway Narrowly Atop Republican Bevin; Democrats Appear to Pull Ahead in Contests for Attorney General and State Auditor: Lundergan Grimes Well Positioned to Defeat Knipper for KY Secretary of State; Treasurer Contest Tight
Heading into the final weekend of campaigning to fill the open seat for Governor of Kentucky, Democrat Jack Conway continues to lead Republican Matt Bevin narrowly, according to this final Bluegrass Poll conducted by SurveyUSA for the Louisville Courier Journal, Lexington Herald Leader, WHAS-TV, and WKYT-TV. In 3 separate SurveyUSA polls going back to 07/29/15, Conway has led by 5 points. Today, at the wire, it’s Conway 45%, Bevin 40%, and Independent Drew Curtis 6%.
Bevin ends the contest with a Minus 6 Net Favorability Rating: 38% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Bevin, compared to 32% who have a favorable opinion. Conway ends the contest with a Plus 4 Net Favorability Rating: 36% of voters have a favorable opinion of Conway, 32% have an unfavorable opinion. Curtis ends the contest where he started, largely unknown: 80% of voters have no opinion of Curtis, or have a neutral opinion of him.
Conway siphons from Bevin 8% of likely voters who identify themselves as “Strong Republicans,” 10% of likely voters who identify themselves as “Republicans,” and 15% of likely voters who identify themselves as “Independents who Lean Republican.” This leakage is combined with 15% of “very conservative” voters who vote Democratic and 21% of “conservative” voters who vote Democratic.
There is late movement in the contest for Attorney General: Democrat Andy Beshear today leads Republican Whitney Westerfield 47% to 35%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 1 month ago, on 09/28/15, the Democrat is up 9 points, the Republican is down 3 points.
There is late movement in the contest for for State Auditor: Incumbent Democrat Adam Edelen today leads Republican Mike Harmon 42% to 34%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 1 month ago, on 09/28/15, the Democrat is up 7 points, the Republican is up 1 point. Edelen had led by 2 points, now by 8 points.
There is late movement in the contest for State Agricultural Commissioner: Republican Ryan Quarles today leads Democrat Jean-Marie Lawson Spann 40% to 33%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 1 month ago, on 09/28/15, the Republican Quarles is up 6 points, the Democrat Lawson Spann is up 2 points. Quarles had led by 3 points, today leads by 7 points.
The contest for State Treasurer is too-close-to-call. Republican Allison Ball and Democrat Rick Nelson are separated by 2 points, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error: 37% Ball, 35% Nelson, with 28% of voters either undecided or not following the contest. These results are effectively unchanged from 1 month ago, when Ball had 35% and Nelson had 33%.
At the wire, incumbent Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes appears to pull ahead and defeat Republican Steve Knipper in the contest for KY Secretary of State. Today, it’s Lundergan Grimes 50%, Knipper 37%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 1 month ago, Grimes is up 4 points, Knipper is down 1 point. Grimes had led by 8 points, today leads by 13 points.
Filtering: 1,200 state of Kentucky adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/23/15 through 10/26/15. Of the adults, 1,016 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 798 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/03/15 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smart phone, tablet or other electronic device.