In NV, With Voting Underway, Question 3, ‘The Margin Tax,’ Trails; In Clark County, Lombardo and Burns Battle To Replace Gillespie as Sheriff
Nevada’s hotly contested ballot measure, Question 3, which would tax certain NV businesses and use the money to fund public education, appears to be losing steam as Election Day approaches, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for KLAS-TV in Las Vegas. “No” leads “Yes” 49% to 34% at this hour. Defeat is likely.
The measure is officially known as the “Nevada Margin Tax for Public Schools Initiative.” Republicans and conservatives overwhelmingly oppose it. Young people and Hispanic Americans overwhelmingly support it. The measure trails in all 4 regions of the state.
In the election for Sheriff of Clark County NV, which includes the city of Las Vegas and 70% of NV’s population, Assistant Sheriff Joe Lombardo and retired Las Vegas Police Department Captain Larry Burns are locked in a tight fight that could go either way. 32% of Clark County voters tell SurveyUSA they are certain to vote for Burns. 26% tell SurveyUSA they are certain to vote for Lombardo. But 43% of likely voters tell SurveyUSA they are not certain how they will vote in the contest, though ballots will be counted in less than 2 weeks. Either law-man may emerge victorious.
Burns’s support is disproportionately young. The younger the electorate on 11/04/14, the better Burns will do. Lombardo’s support is older. He leads by more than 2:1 among Clark County’s seniors. The older the electorate, the better Lombardo will do.
Burns, who has a high-school education, leads by 2:1 among high-school educated voters. The contest is tied in the city of Las Vegas. What advantage Burns may have comes from the rest of Clark County, where he leads by 10 points. Incumbent Sheriff Doug Gillespie is not seeking a 3rd term.
Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 920 state of NV adults 10/16/14 through 10/21/14. Of the adults, 772 were registered to vote statewide. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 602 were likely to vote statewide, and a subset of them, 434, were likely to vote in Clark County. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters statewide) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters statewide) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone or other electronic device.