Time-Lapse Photography Into the State of Florida 03/15/16 Republican Primary; Cruz Moving Up, Rubio Trending Down, Trump Impervious & Still in the Lead

SurveyUSA Operations - 140 days ago

7 days till votes are counted in the Florida Republican Primary for President of the United States, Donald Trump appears to have an advantage over Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, according to SurveyUSA research conducted exclusively for TV station Bay News 9 in Tampa. But: a fluid electorate makes it difficult to freeze-frame the state of the race in a way that will “hold” until Election Day.

At this hour, it’s Trump 42%, favorite-son Rubio 22%, Cruz 17%. But, there is inter-day play that is worth introspection. On the first day of interviewing (Friday 03/04/16, after the Thursday night Fox News “small hands” Republican Party Debate in Detroit), Ted Cruz had 13% of the primary vote. On the last day of interviewing (Sunday 03/06/16, after the results of the Saturday caucuses in Kansas, Maine and Kentucky were known, and after the results of the Louisiana primary were known), Cruz had 21% of the primary vote, a specific upward trajectory. On the first day of interviewing, Rubio had 25% of the primary vote, compared to 20% on the last day of interviewing. A downward trajectory, though less pronounced. Trump polled at 43%, 41%, and 44% over the 3 days of interviewing for the survey — no particular trajectory, and no evidence that Trump has yet been wounded by relentless anti-Trump advertising in the Sunshine State.

Results of today’s 03/08/16 Michigan and Mississippi primaries will color Florida results, one week later. If Cruz has an unexpectedly strong showing in Michigan and/or Mississippi, and is able to maintain 24 or 48 hours of uninterrupted media spotlight, he may carry that momentum into Florida and eclipse Rubio. If Rubio has a comparatively weak showing in Michigan and/or Mississippi, he may lose critical support back home. Should Trump’s support collapse in Michigan and Mississippi, that may dampen Trump’s perceived inevitability, and cut into his Florida base, making the outcome far closer than it herein appears. In the end, however, whether Trump wins the Florida Primary by 3 votes or 300,000 votes, and whether Cruz or Rubio finishes in 2nd place, Trump wins the same number of convention delegates, 99, and Cruz and Rubio both get zero. Trump has 84 more delegates than Cruz at this hour. Trump has 233 more delegates than Rubio.

For now, among Republican primary voters who tell SurveyUSA that they have already returned a ballot, it’s Trump 47%, Rubio 29%, Cruz 10%. Among voters who have not yet returned a ballot but who promise to do so before polling places close, it’s Trump 41%, Rubio 20%, Cruz 19%.

Rubio leads Trump 38% to 27% among Cubans who plan to vote in the Republican Primary. Trump leads Rubio by 15 points among non-Cuban Hispanics. Trump polls above 40% in 4 regions of the state — NW FL, NE FL, Central FL, and SW FL. Trump is at 37% in SE FL, with Rubio on his heels at 31%. Trump leads Cruz by 10 points among voters who are “very conservative.” Trump leads Cruz by 34 points among voters who are “moderate.” Rubio’s support is strong among GOP primary voters who do not own a gun and who are not members of the Tea Party. John Kasich, who polls at 10% in a GOP primary “today,” does best among women, seniors, pro-choice voters and moderates.

In a Democratic primary today, Hillary Clinton defeats Bernie Sanders 2:1. Support for Sanders declined from 33% on the first day of interviewing to 25% on the last day of interviewing.

Looking ahead to the 11/08/16 general election, Florida’s critical 29 electoral college votes are very much in play. Clinton today runs effectively even with any of the top 3 Republicans. At this hour, it’s:

* Trump 45%, Clinton 44%. Clinton gets 82% of the black vote, 61% of the Non-Cuban Hispanic vote.
* Clinton 45%, Rubio 44%. Clinton gets 82% of the black vote, 58% of the Non-Cuban Hispanic vote.
* Clinton 46%, Cruz 44%. Clinton gets 79% of the black vote, 64% of the Non-Cuban Hispanic vote.

In the 08/30/16 Republican primary for U.S. Senator from Florida, “other” and “undecided” today combine for 50% of the likely vote — so all named candidates have significant opportunity to move up or down. Today, it’s David Jolly at 18%, Ron DeSantis at 11%, Carlos Lopez-Cantera at 9%, Todd Wilcox at 7%, Ilya Katz at 4%. Among those Republicans likely to vote in the Senate primary, 56% say they would definitely vote for Ben Carson, should Carson enter the race.

In the 08/30/16 Democratic primary for U.S. Senator, “other” and “undecided” combine for 46% of the vote, leaving plenty of room for all 3 named candidates — Patrick Murphy who polls at 27%, Alan Grayson who polls at 16%, and Pam Keith who polls at 11%.

Like U.S. Senate races in other states in 2016, Florida’s Senate fight will have national significance, and will likely see millions of outside dollars poured into it, as both Democrats and Republicans seek to control the Upper Chamber in the next Congress so as to steer the confirmation hearings for Justice Antonin Scalia’s replacement. The open Florida Senate seat is currently held by Republican Rubio, who is not seeking re-election.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,450 state of Florida adults 03/04/16 through 03/06/16. Of the adults, 2,204 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 1,961 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election, 937 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 03/15/16 Republican presidential primary, 823 were determined to be likely to vote in the 03/15/16 Democratic presidential primary, 724 were determined to be likely to vote in the 08/30/16 Republican primary for US Senator, and 592 were determined to be likely to vote in the 08/30/16 Democratic primary for US Senator. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (64% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (36% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, or other electronic device. Most of the interviews for this survey were completed before the results of the Puerto Rico Republican Primary were known; Rubio won decisively there. All interviews for this survey were completed before the 03/06/16 CNN Democratic Presidential Debate in Flint MI. Mitt Romney won the Florida Republican Presidential Primary in 2012 with 46% of the vote. Democrat Barack Obama carried Florida in the 2008 and 2012 general elections. Republican George W Bush carried Florida in 2004 and was awarded Florida by the Supreme Court of the United States in 2000.

11 Alive Atlanta Exclusive Poll: 5 Days to Georgia Presidential Primary, Trump Pulls Away from GOP Field; Clinton Buries Sanders; In November Head-To-Head General Election Match-Ups, Republican Nominee, Whomever It Is, Beats Either Democrat; 16 Peach State Electoral Votes Stay Red

SurveyUSA Operations - 152 days ago

Donald Trump consolidates his gains from Nevada, South Carolina and New Hampshire, and marches through Georgia like Sherman’s army, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for WXIA-TV in Atlanta.

Today, 5 days till votes are counted and with many GA ballots already returned, it’s Trump 45% (1 point less than the 46% Trump got in Nevada), Marco Rubio 19%, Ted Cruz 16%, others further back.

Trump is backed by 51% of “strong Republicans,” 47% of conservatives and 46% of moderates. He is backed by 57% of voters with a high-school education, 52% of voters earning less than $40,000 a year, 49% of seniors.

Rubio runs strongest among affluent Republican primary voters and voters in greater Atlanta, but Rubio does not exceed the 25% support level in any voter demographic, so it will be hard for him to catch Trump, barring something completely unforeseen.

Cruz runs strongest among Republican primary voters who are “very conservative” and who are “falling behind” financially. Cruz does not reach 30% support in any demographic group — including evangelical Christians, where Trump beats Cruz 2:1, and including members of the Tea Party, where Trump beats Cruz 5:2.

In the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton defeats Bernie Sanders 66% to 27%. Though Sanders and Clinton run almost even among GA’s white Democratic primary voters, Clinton leads 4:1 among both African Americans and Hispanics. Though Sanders makes a show of it among “very liberal” voters, drawing to within 3 points of Clinton, Clinton is at 65% among moderates and at 73% among conservative Democrats.

Looking ahead to November, Trump and Rubio run slightly stronger than Cruz, but in every case, Republicans win the state in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups. “Today” it’s:

* Trump 50%, Clinton 41% — a 9-point Republican advantage.
* Trump 49%, Sanders 41% — an 8-point Republican advantage.
* Rubio 50%, Clinton 43% — a 7-point Republican advantage.
* Rubio 49%, Sanders 41% — an 8-point Republican advantage.
* Cruz 49%, Clinton 42% — a 7-point Republican advantage.
* Cruz 48%, Sanders 42% — a 6-point Republican advantage.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,650 Georgia adults 02/22/16 through 02/23/16. Approximately half of the interviews were completed before the results of the Nevada Republican caucuses were known, the other half after. Of the adults interviewed, 1,454 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 1,261 voters who were likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election, 684 voters who had either already voted in the Republican presidential primary or who were certain to do so before the deadline, and 501 voters who had already voted in the Democratic presidential primary or who were certain to do so before the deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (53% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (47% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. In 2012, Mitt Romney defeated Barack Obama by 8 percentage points to capture Georgia’s 16 electoral college votes with 53% of the ballots cast.

1 Week to TX Presidential Primary, Trump and Cruz Tied, Rubio in 3rd Place with Half as Much Support; Clinton Laps Sanders; State Divided on Which President Should Nominate the Next Supreme Court Justice

SurveyUSA Operations - 153 days ago

In his home state of Texas, US Senator Ted Cruz cannot shake businessman Donald Trump and his New York values, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WFAA-TV in Dallas and Texas TEGNA. Cruz’s best shot at a Super Tuesday win looks at this hour like he may do no better than a draw. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton defeats Bernie Sanders 2:1.

In the Republican Primary, it’s Cruz 32%, Trump 32%, Marco Rubio 17%, others further back.

Cruz narrowly leads Trump among Texas’s Hispanic/Latino population, 34% to 27%. Cruz materially leads Trump among Texas’s evangelicals, 42% to 28%. Cruz overwhelmingly leads Trump among those who are members of the Tea Party, 62% to 21%. Cruz leads by 11 points in West Texas, which includes El Paso, Midland and 88 surrounding counties, and by a nominal 3 points in East Texas, which includes Houston and 60 surrounding counties. Cruz leads by 20 points among “very conservative” primary voters.

Cruz overpowers Trump among Texas Republican primary voters who in 2012 voted for Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich. Trump leads among voters who in 2012 backed Mitt Romney or Ron Paul.

Trump leads by 16 points among “moderates” and by 14 points among non-evangelical voters. Trump leads in North Texas, which includes Dallas and 43 surrounding counties, and Trump leads among the least educated Republican primary voters. Trump leads among the most affluent Texans, but Cruz leads among middle-income primary voters. In Central TX, which includes Austin, San Antonio, and 28 surrounding counties, the two candidates run effectively even.

How close are Trump and Cruz at this hour?

Among “Strong Republicans,” Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.
Among “Republicans,” Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.
Among men, Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.
Among women, Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.
Among younger voters, Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.
Among older voters, Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.
Among gun owners, Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.
Among non-gun owners, Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.
Among college-educated voters, Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.

In the Democratic Primary, it’s Clinton 61%, Sanders 32%. Sanders is backed by 58% of the youngest voters, but Clinton is backed by 70% of middle-aged voters and 82% of seniors. Clinton leads Sanders 4:1 among black voters and Clinton leads Sanders by 40 points among Hispanic voters.

Sanders draws near to Clinton, but still trails, among Democratic primary voters who say they are “falling behind” financially. But Clinton overpowers among voters who say they are “doing well” financially or “just getting by.”

Of those Democratic primary voters who voted for Clinton in 2008, 86% stick with her in 2016. Among Democratic primary voters who voted for Barack Obama in 2008, Clinton leads Sanders 58% to 33%. Clinton polls at or above 60% in North TX, East TX, Central TX and South TX. Sanders comes close to Clinton in West TX, but still trails her there 48% to 42%.

Texas likely voters are split on whether the current President of the United States or the next President should appoint the next Justice for the Supreme Court. Of those Republican primary voters who say the current President should appoint the next Justice, Trump and Rubio lead, each with 27% of the vote. Of those Republican primary voters who say the next President should appoint the Justice, Cruz narrowly leads Trump, 36% to 33%.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,750 adults from the state of Texas in the respondent’s choice of Spanish or English 02/21/16 through 02/22/16. Interviews were completed after the results of the South Carolina Republican Primary were known, but before the results of the Nevada Republican caucuses were known. Of the 1,750 Texas adults, 1,531 were registered to vote in Texas. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 1,293 as likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election for president, 645 who had either already voted in the Texas Republican primary or were certain to do so on or before 03/01/16, and 569 who had either already voted in the Texas Democratic primary or were certain to do so on or before 03/01/16. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In a Trump vs Clinton Presidential Election, 4 in 10 Voters Will Hold Their Nose When Voting; Trump’s Support Comes Disproportionately from Regular Viewers of ‘The Apprentice’ TV Show

SurveyUSA Operations - 153 days ago

Donald Trump stinks. But so does Hillary Clinton. These are the findings of a brand new SurveyUSA poll of 1,357 likely voters nationwide.

Clinton edges Trump 48% to 45% in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup “today.”

But the numbers tell an even better story:

19% of voters say they will “hold their nose” when they vote for Clinton. This compares to 29% who say they will vote for Clinton “enthusiastically.”
21% of voters say they will “hold their nose” when they vote for Trump. This compares to 24% who say they will vote for Trump “enthusiastically.”

42% of Republicans and 41% of independents who lean Republican say Trump smells bad, but not as bad as Clinton. This compares to 27% of Democrats and 43% of independents who lean Democratic who say Clinton smells bad, but not as bad as Trump. Young voters are 3 times more likely to hold their nose when voting Clinton as seniors.

African Americans (58%), “very liberal” voters (59%) and “strong Democrats” (70%) are the most likely to support Clinton enthusiastically. “Strong Republicans” (63%) are the most likely to support Trump enthusiastically. Clinton leads by 16 points among independents. Clinton leads by 18 points among moderates.

Among voters who say the current president should appoint the next Supreme Court justice, Clinton leads 70% to 21%. Among voters who say the next president should fill the vacant Supreme Court seat, Trump leads 74% to 19%.

Among voters who say they are “doing well” financially, Clinton leads 50% to 45%. Among voters who say they are “just getting by” financially, the candidates run even. Among voters who say they are “falling behind” financially, Clinton leads 51% to 42%.

Trump Support Correlates with Viewership of ‘The Apprentice’:

Trump runs 20 points stronger among voters who watched “The Apprentice” TV show “almost always” when Trump was the host, compared to voters who “almost never” watched “The Apprentice.” Among viewers who almost always watched the show when Trump was the host, Trump leads Clinton by 24 points, 58% to 34%. Among voters who almost never watched “The Apprentice” when Trump was host, Clinton leads Trump by 15 points, 53% to 38%. While there is nothing counter-intuitive about these findings, they are the first mathematical measure of the extent to which Trump has been able to cash-in on his celebrity.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,500 adults from the 50 United States 02/22/16 through 02/23/16. Interviews were completed after the results of the South Carolina Republican primary were known but before results of the Nevada Republican caucuses were known. Of the adults, SurveyUSA identified 1,357 as likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election for president. This research was conducted 100% online.

In North Carolina US Senate Primary, Republican Burr and Democrat Ross Positioned for Comfortable Wins; Burr 8 Points Atop Ross in General Election Matchup Today, But Supreme Court Confirmation Could Impact

SurveyUSA Operations - 157 days ago

2 weeks till primary voting begins in North Carolina and 4 weeks until primary votes are counted, Incumbent Republican Richard Burr and Democrat Deborah Ross appear poised to coast to victory, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for Time Warner Cable North Carolina. The Republican holds a narrow advantage today in a hypothetical general election matchup, but national events could influence the NC Senate outcome by a little or a lot.

In the Republican primary, Burr leads Greg Brannon 3:1 … 45% to 14%. Other challengers are in single digits. 30% are undecided or not focused on the contest.

In the Democratic primary, Ross leads 3 challengers by 4:1 or more. But: a majority, 55% are undecided or not focused on the contest at this hour. In the unlikely event that Ross does not reach 40% on 03/15/16, a May runoff could be necessary.

Among Republican primary voters, Burr polls above 50% among seniors, voters in Southern NC, Strong Republicans and Very Conservative voters. Among Democratic primary voters, Ross runs strong among well-educated voters, non-Evangelicals, among voters in Southern NC, and among voters who name health care as the most important issue in the campaign. Among all NC voters, Burr has a Minus 7 Net Job Approval: 34% of NC voters approve of the job Burr is doing as Senator; 41% disapprove. (By contrast, fellow U.S. Senator Thom Tillis, who is not up for re-election in 2016, has a Minus 11 Net Job Approval: 33% of voters approve of the job Tillis is doing as Senator, 44% disapprove.)

In a hypothetical general election matchup today, Republican Burr defeats Democrat Ross by 8 points, 45% to 37%. Burr leads by 22 points among white voters. Ross leads by 38 points among black voters. Burr leads by 33 points among voters with a high-school education. Ross leads narrowly among voters with a 4-year college degree. Burr leads by 13 points among men, by 4 points among women. Burr leads by 20 points in Southern NC, by 14 points in greater Charlotte and by 10 points in greater Greensboro. Ross leads by 6 points in greater Raleigh.

Caveat: Burr was quick to signal his support for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s statement that the US Senate should not hold confirmation hearings on a Supreme Court appointment made by Democratic President Barack Obama. The Democratic party and/or newly formed Super PACs may sink significant national dollars into the NC Senate race in an attempt to flip Burr’s seat from Red to Blue, in the Democratic hope of capturing 50 US Senate seats. Much may change in this contest between today and November.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,650 NC adults after the New Hampshire primary, between 02/14/16 and 02/16/16. Of the adults, 1,444 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 437 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the Republican primary, 449 were identified as likely to vote in the Democratic primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (62% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (38% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

1 Month To North Carolina Gubernatorial Primary, Incumbent Republican McCrory and Democrat Cooper Both Lead Party Challengers; In Head-to-Head November Matchup, McCrory, Backed by Whites, Evangelicals & Very Conservative Voters, Runs 3 Pts Ahead of Cooper

SurveyUSA Operations - 159 days ago

2 weeks till voting begins in the North Carolina primary for Governor, neither party’s primary nomination is closely contested, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for Time Warner Cable News North Carolina. But the November general election may go to the wire.

In the GOP primary, incumbent Pat McCrory leads Robert Brawley 67% to 17%. 16% are undecided or not focused on the contest.
In the Democratic primary, Roy Cooper leads Ken Spaulding 50% to 21%. 29% are undecided or not focused on the contest.

McCrory, elected Governor in 2012, polls in the Republican primary above 60% among men, women, voters of all ages, whites, voters of all income levels and voters of all education levels. McCrory will coast to an easy 03/15/16 win, barring something extraordinary.

Cooper polls in the Democratic primary at or above 50% among men and women, voters age 50+, whites, Strong Democrats and liberals. Cooper is disproportionately favored in greater Greensboro and greater Raleigh. He polls less well, but still leads, in greater Charlotte and in Southern NC. Cooper is an overwhelming favorite at this hour.

Among all NC voters, McCrory has a Minus 4 Net Job Approval: 42% of voters approve of the job McCrory is doing as Governor; 46% disapprove.

In November’s highly anticipated Gubernatorial duel, McCrory leads Cooper by a nominal 3 points, 45% to 42%, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. Cooper leads by 46 points among African American voters, but that is not enough to make up for the 16-point advantage the sitting Governor has among white voters. McCrory leads in Southern NC by 13 points, in greater Charlotte by 8 points and in greater Greensboro by 9 points. Cooper leads in greater Raleigh by 13 points.

McCrory leads 2:1 among evangelical voters, and leads by 10 points among men. Cooper leads by 4 points among women. To win, Cooper must do better than the 40% support he has among men, and he must make inroads among white voters. McCrory leads by 19 points among high-school educated voters. Cooper leads in single digits among the poorest and wealthiest North Carolinians. Cooper leads by 3 points among moderates and by 8 points among independents.

All NC voters (Democrat, Republican or unaffiliated) will have a chance to vote 03/15/16 on a $2 billion bond issue known as Connect NC. At this hour, “Yes” leads “No” 43% to 19%. But: opposition to ballot measures increases as election day approaches (in all geographies, not just NC), and this “Yes” lead, though by more than 2:1, should not be considered a “lock.” Strong Republicans oppose the measure, which would finance higher education construction, parks, safety, recreation, and water-sewer infrastructure. Strong Democrats back the measure 7:1.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,650 NC adults after the New Hampshire primary, between 02/14/16 and 02/16/16. Of the adults, 1,444 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 437 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the Republican primary, 449 were identified as likely to vote in the Democratic primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (62% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (38% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

1 Month to NC Presidential Primary, Trump Atop Rubio and Cruz; Clinton Well Ahead of Sanders; General Election Head-To-Head Matchups Favor Republicans if Clinton is the Democratic Nominee

SurveyUSA Operations - 160 days ago

2 weeks till voting begins in the North Carolina presidential primary and 4 weeks until votes are counted, Donald Trump remains the Republican front-runner, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for Time Warner Cable News North Carolina. But: By the time North Carolina’s primary ballots are counted 03/15/16, Trump may be the only Republican left in the race, Trump may have splintered off to launch a 3rd-party bid for the White House, or any no-scenario-too-wild permutation in between.

Today, 02/17/16, Trump, at 36%, leads Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, who tie for 2nd place at 18%. John Kasich, in 5th place at 7%, and Jeb Bush, in 6th place at 5%, finish behind Ben Carson, whose campaign is sputtering but who finishes 4th at 10%. Trump’s 36% in North Carolina is similar to the 35% of the vote he received in last week’s New Hampshire primary, higher than the 24% Trump received in Iowa. Two thirds of the interviews for this survey were completed before George W. Bush campaigned in neighboring South Carolina for his brother Jeb; one third of the interviews were completed after Bush’s appearance.

Trump’s NC primary support grows from 32% among “very conservative” voters to 37% among “conservative” voters to 40% among “moderate” voters. Even though Cruz’s support is disproportionately “very conservative,” Trump edges Cruz in this key demographic. And: Cruz trails Trump (though Cruz edges Rubio) among North Carolina’s evangelical voters. Trump leads Rubio by 17 points among “Strong Republicans.” Trump leads Rubio by 10 points among “Independents who Lean Republican.” Trump leads his nearest challenger by more than 2:1 among high-school educated voters and by 4:1 among voters earning less than $40,000 a year.

Trump is at 47% in Southern NC and at 28% in greater Raleigh. Cruz and Rubio are both weak in greater Greensboro. Cruz is also weak in Southern NC. Trump is at 41% among voters who have lived in NC more than 20 years.

Among Republican primary voters who say the economy is the most important issue in the campaign, Trump leads Rubio by 15 points. Among voters who say health care is the most important issue, Trump leads Cruz by 29 points. Among voters who say that terrorism is the most important issue, Trump leads Rubio by 8 points.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 51% to 36%. Sanders leads by a nominal 3 points among white voters. Clinton’s entire primary lead comes from African Americans, where she out-polls Sanders at this hour by 45 points. Clinton’s support is disproportionately old. Sanders support is disproportionately young. Clinton runs 21 points better than Sanders among NC Democratic women.

“Very Liberal” voters back Sanders. “Liberal,” “Moderate” and “Conservative” voters back Clinton. Clinton runs strongest among middle-income voters. Sanders leads Clinton among voters who have some college education but who have not gotten a 4-year college degree. But Clinton clobbers Sanders among Democrats with a high-school education.

When Hillary Clinton is paired against the leading 3 Republicans in hypothetical head-to-head November matchups, she loses. Among all NC likely general election voters, it’s:

Rubio 49%, Clinton 42%.
Cruz 48%, Clinton 43%.
Trump 45%, Clinton 43%.

When Bernie Sanders is paired against the leading 3 Republicans in hypothetical head-to-head November matchups, Sanders outperforms Clinton:

Sanders 46%, Cruz 42%.
Sanders 45%, Rubio 44%.
Sanders 44%, Trump 44%.

President Barack Obama’s approval rating at this hour, among all NC registered voters, is Minus 11. 42% of voters approve of the job Obama is doing. 53% disapprove.

Caveats: Much will happen between today and 03/15/16 that could affect this presidential primary polling. More than 2 dozen states hold primaries or caucuses between today and 03/15/16, each of which contests may give momentum to, or suck oxygen from, a given candidate. Republicans may drop out of the race. Those who drop out may throw their support behind one of the remaining candidates. The campaign may become less civil, if such a thing is possible, or perhaps each of the two parties coalesce behind a single candidate by the time Tarheel voters weigh in.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,650 NC adults after the New Hampshire primary, between 02/14/16 and 02/16/16. Of the adults, 1,444 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 437 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary, 449 were identified as likely to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

State of Utah Supports Better Air Quality, Death Penalty, Medical Marijuana, and Helping the Homeless, Opposes Paying for Computers in Classrooms, Split on Decision to Cut Funding to Planned Parenthood

SurveyUSA Operations - 172 days ago

Utah Mormons by 4:1 support the LDS church’s new policy that labels same-sex Mormon couples as “apostates,” according to SurveyUSA statewide research conducted for the Salt Lake Tribune and the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah. Non-Mormons oppose the new “apostate” policy by 4:1. Mormons support by 7:2 the church’s new policy that bars children of same-sex couples from baptism until age 18. Non-Mormons oppose 4:1.

Utah is divided on the Governor’s decision to cut off funding for Planned Parenthood: 44% approve of the decision, 46% disapprove.

Among the survey’s other key findings, Utah …

* Overwhelmingly supports the death penalty in capital cases.
* By 2:1 favors legalizing medical marijuana.
* Narrowly supports the state suing the federal government to transfer control of public lands.
* Splits on whether the jail sentence for Phil Lyman was too harsh or too lenient.
* Splits on whether Medicaid should cover an additional 125,000 uninsured low-income residents.
* Wants liquor sales to be controlled by the private sector.
* Is conflicted about whether to build a pipeline from Lake Powell to Washington County.
* Thinks the state should not have to pay for every student to have a computer in the classroom.

How are Utah’s leaders perceived …

* Utah Governor Gary Herbert has a Plus 28 Net Job Approval: 55% of Utah voters approve of the job Herbert is doing, 27% disapprove.
* Utah Senator Mike Lee has a Plus 8 Net Job approval: 45% of voters approve of the job Lee is doing, 37% disapprove.
* The Utah Legislature has a Minus 4 Net Job approval: 39% of voters approve of the job the legislature is doing, 43% disapprove.

Looking Ahead to Utah’s 2016 Presidential Caucuses …

4 Republicans effectively tie for the affection of Utah’s Republicans. Ted Cruz is backed by 18% of likely GOP caucus goers, Donald Trump is backed by 17%, Marco Rubio and Ben Carson are both backed by 15%.

Hillary Clinton narrowly leads Bernie Sanders, 50% to 40%, among likely Democratic caucus goers.

Filtering …

SurveyUSA interviewed 1,200 adults from the state of Utah 01/06/16 through 01/13/16. Of the adults, 989 were registered to vote in the state of Utah, and were asked the majority of the questions in this survey. Of the 989 registered voters, 414 tell SurveyUSA they are certain to caucus as a Republican, 191 are certain to caucus as a Democrat. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

This research was commissioned in part by the Salt Lake Tribune, the future of which is uncertain. 35% of Utahns say they would like the newspaper sold to a Utahn. 34% say they would like the newspaper to continue to operate as is. 9% say they would like the newspaper sold to a newspaper chain. 7% say they would like the newspaper to be shut down.

In Florida, 19 Weeks to GOP Presidential Primary, Trump Tops Carson and Rubio 2:1; Former FL Governor Bush Runs 5th; Dem Clinton Dispatches Sanders 3:1; State’s 29 Electoral Votes Go Red if Trump or Carson Face Clinton in General Election

SurveyUSA Operations - 11/06/15 09:21 AM

Hillary Clinton wins 3:1 a Florida Democratic Presidential Primary today and Donald Trump wins 2:1 a Republican presidential primary today, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for Bay News 9 in Tampa and News 13 Orlando.

Trump gets 37% to Ben Carson’s 17% to Marco Rubio’s 16%, in research completed after the most recent GOP candidate debate. Ted Cruz runs 4th at 10%, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is 5th at 7%. Trump gets 49% of the vote among Republican Primary voters who say that immigration is the most important issue that the country faces. Trump leads in all 5 regions of the state.

Clinton today gets 66% to 24% for Bernie Sanders. Clinton is above 50% in every region of the state. Clinton leads 2:1 among whites, 9:1 among blacks.

If Clinton and Trump are their party’s nominees, Florida’s 29 vital electoral votes turn red: Trump 47%, Clinton 43%.
If Clinton and Carson are their party’s nominees, Florida’s 29 vital electoral votes turn red: Carson 47%, Clinton 44%.
If Clinton and Rubio are their party’s nominees, Florida is too-close-to-call: Clinton 46%, Rubio 45%.

Florida registered voters support a constitutional amendment to legalize medical marijuana, 2:1. Voters split on whether recreational use of marijuana should be legalized.

Voters by 5:3 favoring legalizing casino gambling in Florida.

Filtering: 3,000 state of Florida adults were interviewed 10/28/15 through 11/01/15. Of the adults, 2,712 were registered to vote in the state of Florida. Of the registered voters, 2,400 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 922 were likely to vote in the 03/15/16 Republican primary and 826 were likely to vote in the 03/15/16 Democratic primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode: respondents reachable on their home telephone (69% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (31% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Barack Obama carried Florida (the state was “blue”) in both 2008 and 2012.

GA Super Tuesday Look-Ahead: GOP Trump Today 7 Pts Atop Carson; Dem Clinton Buries Sanders; 16 Electoral Votes Stay Red At This Hour

SurveyUSA Operations - 11/03/15 12:30 PM

4 months till Super Tuesday, 3 key findings emerge from this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WXIA-TV in Atlanta:

Donald Trump leads Ben Carson 35% to 28% in the contest to be the Republican nominee for President for 2016.
Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 73% to 16% in the contest to be the Democratic nominee for President in 2016.
If those two candidates are in fact the major-party nominees, Trump defeats Clinton in a general election today, 46% to 37%.

Other findings:

Georgia splits on whether the Confederate Battle Flag should be taken down over public property.
Georgia opposes holding elections online.
Georgia supports holding elections on a weekend.
Georgia supports the death penalty.

In the contest for the Republican nomination, Marco Rubio runs 3rd, with 12% of the vote; all others are in single digits. Trump leads by a nominal 2 points among conservative voters, and leads by 11 points among moderate voters. Trump leads by 20 points among the least educated voters. Carson and Trump are effectively tied among the most educated Republican Primary voters. Trump leads by 20 points among the least affluent voters; Carson leads among the most affluent Republican Primary voters.

Sanders is not today competitive in Georgia; Clinton captures the Democratic Party nomination by more than 4:1.

Filtering: 2,075 adults from the state of Georgia were interviewed 10/15/15 through 10/26/15. Of the adults, 1,787 were registered to vote in the state of Georgia. Of those registered to vote, SurveyUSA determined that 629 would be likely to vote in the 03/01/16 Republican primary and 481 would be likely to vote in the 03/01/16 Democratic primary; 1,554 would be likely to vote in the November 2016 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (68% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (32% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

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