10 Days till Votes Are Counted in San Jose CA, Dave Cortese May Have Ever-So-Slight Advantage Over Sam Liccardo for Mayor
In an election for the open seat of Mayor of San Jose CA today, 10/24/14, County Supervisor Dave Cortese appears to have a slight advantage over Councilman Sam Liccardo, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for KPIX-TV in San Francisco. Cortese is at 44%, Liccardo is at 38%, but 19% are undecided, with voting underway. In a low-turnout municipal election, every vote is critical.
Women and Asian-Americans are a core part of Cortese’s constituency. White voters favor Liccardo. Hispanic Americans split. Asian-Americans back Cortese by more than 2:1. Men split. Women back Cortese by 14 points. Republicans, conservatives and independents favor Liccardo. Democrats, moderates and liberals favor Cortese. Cortese leads among lower-income and lesser-educated voters. Liccardo has a narrow advantage among the most educated and the most affluent.
Among respondents who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, the contest is effectively tied, 44% for Cortese, 43% for Liccardo. Among respondents who have not yet returned a ballot but who promise to do so before the deadline, Cortese has a 7-point advantage..
Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 750 city of San Jose CA adults 10/20/14 through 10/23/14. Of the adults, 594 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 540 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot, or to be likely to do so before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (85% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (15% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Outgoing Mayor Chuck Reed is term-limited.