Barack Obama and Mitt Romney dueled to a draw among California’s Independent voters in tonight’s 3rd and final presidential debate, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted immediately after the debate ended. Among all California debate watchers:

* 58% say Barack Obama was the clear winner.
* 35% say Mitt Romney was the clear winner.
* 7% say there was no clear winner.

California is a “blue” state, so it is not a surprise that Obama would be the winner among all Californians. That is why it’s important to examine just what Independent voters say, since they are the closest thing to “neutral” voters available to interview. Among California’s Independent voters, the scoring was close enough to be called a draw: 47% of CA Independents see Obama as the clear winner, 44% of CA Independents see Romney as the clear winner. Democrats by 8:1 score it for Obama. Republicans by 3:1 score it for Romney.

Of those Californians who have now watched all 3 presidential debates, 94% have made up their mind who they will vote for, but 5% tell SurveyUSA that after all is said and done, they are still, at this hour, undecided.

800 California adults were interviewed 10/22/12. Of them, 591 watched tonight’s debate. 511 watched all 3 debates. SurveyUSA California research conducted for KABC-TV in Los Angeles, KPIX-TV in San Francisco, KGTV-TV in San Diego, and KFSN-TV in Fresno.

In an election for President of the United States in Florida today, 10/19/12, Barack Obama is a nominal, statistically insignificant, single point ahead of Mitt Romney, 47% to 46%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, Romney is up 2 points, Obama is down 1 point. Florida’s critical 29 electoral votes remain up for grabs, 18 days till votes are counted. Romney has gained ground in each of 3 SurveyUSA tracking polls going back to 07/20/12. Obama’s once 12-point lead among Florida women has been reduced to 4 points. The contest is tied among men. Narrowly, Cubans vote Republican. Decisively, non-Cuban Hispanics vote Democrat. Voters under age 50 vote for Obama. Voters age 50+ vote for Romney. Whites vote for Romney 5:4. Moderates vote for Obama 5:4. Independents break 44% to 40% for Romney.

Voters with a high school education split 45% for each candidate. Voters with some college education split 47% for each candidate. Romney has a 5-point edge among those with a 4-year college degree. Obama leads among those who earn less than $80,000 a year. Romney leads among Florida voters who earn more than $80,000 a year. 4 of Florida’s 5 regions break for Romney. Obama’s advantage comes entirely from Southeast Florida, where he leads by 24 points. Obama has a Plus 3 Net Favorability today. Romney has a Minus 2 Net Favorability today.

In an election for United States Senator from Florida today, Democrat Bill Nelson gets 48% to 40% for Republican Connie Mack. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, Nelson is up 1 point, Mack is up 4 points. Nelson had led by 11, now leads by 8. Nelson had led by 15 points in Central Florida, now leads by 1. Nelson had led by 14 among Independent voters, now leads by 6. Nelson had led by 37 points among political moderates, now leads by 23. There is offsetting movement among middle-income voters, where Nelson had led by 10, now leads by 15, and among seniors, where Nelson had led by 2, now leads by 10. Nelson has a Plus 9 Net Favorability in the state. Mack has a Minus 10 Net Favorability.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 Florida adults 10/17/12 and 10/18/12. Of the adults, 645 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 600 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (77% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (23% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, or other electronic device. All interviews conducted after 10/16/12 town-hall Presidential debate.

In an election for President of the United States today, 10/19/12, New Jersey’s 14 electoral votes remain safely blue, with Barack Obama ahead of Mitt Romney 54% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WABC-TV in New York City. Obama’s entire margin of victory comes from women, where he leads by 27 points. The contest is tied among men. Obama leads among young and old, the educated and the less educated. Romney has a narrow 48% to 45% advantage among New Jersey’s white voters, but that is offset by Obama’s strong showing among the state’s African Americans, Asian Americans and Hispanics. Romney ties Obama among upper income voters, but Obama leads decisively among middle-income and lower-income voters. Independents break for Romney. Moderates break for Obama. Obama has a Plus 12 Net Favorability in the state. Romney has a Minus 12 Net Favorability in the state.

In an election for U.S. Senator from New Jersey, incumbent Democrat Robert Menendez today defeats Republican challenger Joe Kyrillos 53% to 33%. Menendez is at or above 50% in every age group and at every income level. Kyrillos challenges Menendez in South Jersey, but Menendez leads 5:3 in Central Jersey and 2:1 in North Jersey. Menendez has a Plus 16 Net Favorability. Kyrillos has a Plus 7 Net Favorability – but, 18 days until votes are counted, 55% of New Jersey likely voters either have no opinion at all of Kyrillos or are neutral on him.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of NJ adults 10/17/12 and 10/18/12. Of the adults, 628 are registered to vote in New Jersey. Of the registered, 577 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In an election for President of the United States in Oregon today, 10/18/12, with voting about to begin, Barack Obama defeats Mitt Romney 49% to 42%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV in Portland. All interviews were conducted following the 10/16/12 Presidential town-hall debate in New York. Obama carried Oregon by 16 points in 2008, but leads by 7 points today. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, Obama has lost 2 points: then, he led by 9.

Among men, Obama has gained ground: he had trailed by 3 points now leads by 2. Among women, Obama has lost ground: he had led by 21 points, now leads by 11. Obama’s advantage among Independents has been shaved by 3 points: he had led by 7, now leads by 4. Obama has lost ground among lower income voters, gained ground among middle-income voters. Romney has made inroads among upper-income voters. In the region of Oregon outside of greater Portland, the contest has flipped: Obama had led by 3, now trails by 10. Compared to 5 weeks ago, Romney voters are voting more “for” Romney than they are voting “against” Barack Obama, a sign that Romney is seen today as a more attractive candidate, not just an “anybody but Obama.”

Measure 80, which would allow adults to grow and possess marijuana, continues to trail narrowly. Today, “No” leads “Yes” 43% to 36%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, opposition is up 2 points, support is down 1 point. The measure had trailed by 4, now trails by 7. The margin of support among Democrats has dropped 10 points.

Measure 82, which would allow privately owned casinos, today trails 53% to 28%. Opposition to the measure has grown from 16 points 5 weeks ago to 25 points today.

Measure 83, which would allow a privately owned casino in Wood Village, today trails 54% to 26%. Opposition to the measure has grown from 11 points 5 weeks ago to 28 points today.

SurveyUSA asked about Measure 85 in 2 different ways for this release. First, consistent with last month, SurveyUSA told voters very little about the measure, an attempt to gauge “certain” support. This approach is designed to identify the most-committed backers and opponents of a proposition, and is an approach used by SurveyUSA across the country to measure public awareness of ballot initiatives. Using this approach, 25% of voters tell SurveyUSA they are “certain” to vote No on Measure 85. 15% of voters tell SurveyUSA they are “certain” to vote Yes on Measure 85. 60% of voters are “not certain” how they will vote.

Separately, SurveyUSA read to voters a complete description of Measure 85. Using this approach, “Yes” on 85 leads “No,” 53% to 26%, with 21% undecided. This approach to initiative measurement includes “soft” support as well as “hard” support and incorporates into the findings those who may be hearing the exact ballot language for the first time. Given the full description: Democrats and Independents support the measure, Republicans split. Conservatives oppose the measure, moderates and liberals support.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of Oregon adults 10/16/12 through 10/18/12. Of the adults, 644 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 579 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (77% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (23% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In an election for President of the United States today, 10/15/12, Barack Obama carries Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes, defeating Mitt Romney 50% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities. Obama’s 10-point advantage today is identical to his 50% to 40% advantage in a SurveyUSA poll released 5 weeks ago, 09/10/12.

In an election for United States Senator from Minnesota today, incumbent DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar defeats Republican challenger Kurt Bills 58% to 30%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, Klobuchar is up 3 points, Bills is down 4 points. Klobuchar had led by 21 points, now leads by 28 points.

Support for an amendment to Minnesota’s constitution to define marriage as a union of one man and one woman has eroded. The ballot measure is now running effectively even, 47% for “Yes,” 46% for “No,” and for the first time in SurveyUSA polling, in danger of defeat. 5 weeks ago, Yes led No by 7 points. In earlier SurveyUSA polling, where a summary of the ballot language was used instead of the actual ballot language, Yes had led by as many as 15 points.

* 5 weeks ago, women supported the measure by 5 points, now oppose the measure by 6 points, a swing of 11 points to “No.”
* 5 weeks ago, Independent voters supported the measure by 1 point, now oppose the measure by 10 points, a swing of 11 points to “No.”
* 5 weeks ago, moderates opposed the measure by 9 points, now oppose the measure by 20 points, a swing of 11 points to “No.”
* 5 weeks ago, middle-income voters had supported the measure by 10 points, now oppose the measure by 4 points, a swing of 14 points to “No.”

Support for a ballot measure that would require Minnesota voters to present a photo I.D. in order to vote is also eroding. 5 weeks ago, the measure led by 31 points, today leads by 13 points, 53% to 40%. Support for the measure has decreased among women from 29 points to 9 points. Opposition to the measure has increased among Democrats from 14 points to 33 points. Voters with a 4-year college degree had supported the measure by 24 points, now support by just 2 points. In Southern MN, support has eroded from 42 points to 6 points.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults 10/12/12 through 10/14/12. Of them, 640 were registered to vote in the state of Minnesota. Of the registered, SurveyUSA determined that 550 were likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (77% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (23% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device.

In an election for President of the United States in Ohio today, 10/16/12, Barack Obama edges Mitt Romney 45% to 42%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV in Columbus. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll one week ago, Obama is flat at 45%, Romney is down 2 points, from 44% to 42%.

Obama’s entire advantage comes from those Ohioans who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. Among early voters, Obama leads 57% to 38%. Among Ohioans who are likely to vote, but who have not yet done so, the contest is tied, 43% to 43%. When the two groups are proportionally blended, Obama leads by the 3 points reported here. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll one week ago, women are stable, but Obama picks up a couple of points among men. The gender gap today is 13 points. Both Obama and Romney lost support among Independents week-on-week. Romney declined 3 points, from 44% to 41%. Obama declined 2 points, from 35% to 33%. Obama gained ground week-on-week among middle-income voters. In greater Columbus, the contest is absolutely unchanged: 47% to 41% Obama last week; 47% to 41% Obama this week.

In an election for United States Senator from Ohio today, Democrat Sherrod Brown defeats Republican Josh Mandel 43% to 38%. Week-on-week, Brown is up 1 point, Mandel is flat. Brown leads by 14 points among Ohioans who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, and by 2 points among likely voters who have not yet marked a ballot. Week-on-week, Mandel lost 2 points among voters under age 50, and gained 2 points among voters age 50+. In greater Columbus, Mandel lost 3 points week-on-week. In greater Cleveland, Mandel gained 3 points week-on-week.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 675 Ohio adults 10/12/12 through 10/15/12. Of the adults, 613 had either already returned a ballot or were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to do so before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Obama leads by 12 points among cell-phone respondents. Obama and Romney are tied, 46% to 46%, among landline respondents. When the two groups are proportionally blended, Obama leads by the 3 points reported here.

Immediately following tonight’s town-hall-style presidential debate between Republican Mitt Romney and Democrat Barack Obama, SurveyUSA interviewed 800 California adults, of whom 656 watched the debate. Results of tonight’s 10/16/12 debate follow (with results of the 10/03/12 Denver presidential debate in parenthesis).

* 56% say Obama was the clear winner tonight (compared to 34% who say Obama won the 1st debate in Denver ).
* 32% say Romney was the clear winner tonight (compared to 48% who say Romney won the 1st debate in Denver).
* 12% say there was no clear winner tonight.

As always, the caution that California is a “blue” state and more Democrats in California watch a debate than do Republicans. That’s why it’s important to study reaction along party lines:

* Democrats by 72 points say Obama was tonight’s clear winner (Democrats gave Obama a 30-point margin in Denver).
* Republicans by 41 points say Romney was tonight’s clear winner (Republicans gave Romney a 65-point margin in Denver).
* Independents split, 44% for Romney, 44% for Obama (Independents favored Romney by 34 points in Denver).
* Every region of the state scored the debate for Obama.

SurveyUSA’s California research conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KFSN-TV Fresno, and KGTV-TV San Diego.

In an election for Governor of Washington state today, 10/15/12, Democrat Jay Inslee edges Republican Rob McKenna 47% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KING-TV in Seattle. In 4 SurveyUSA polls of likely voters going back to August, Inslee has led by 3 points, 5 points, 6 points and now by 3 points again.

Compared to SurveyUSA’s most recent poll on 10/01/12, McKenna has gained ground among voters age 50+, where Inslee had led by 8 points and now trails by 2. There is offsetting movement among political moderates, where Inslee had led by 15, now leads by 28.

Inslee’s Net Favorability has declined to Plus 7, which is the lowest rating SurveyUSA has recorded among likely voters. 35% today have a favorable opinion of Inslee, 28% have an unfavorable opinion. In previous measurements, Inslee had been at Plus 11, Plus 13, and Plus 10.

McKenna’s Net Favorability is at Plus 11 today. In previous measurements, his Net Favorability was at Plus 16, Plus 14, and Plus 8.

* By 43% to 32%, voters today say Inslee would be more likely to raise taxes.
* By 42% to 35%, voters today say McKenna would be stronger on education. This is a departure from 3 previous polls, when McKenna and Inslee were never more than 1 point apart.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults 10/12/12 through 10/14/12. Of the adults, 628 were registered to vote in Washington state. Of the registered, 543 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day 11/06/12. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (75% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home phone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In an election for President of the United States in Washington state today, 10/15/12, three weeks until votes are counted, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 54% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KING-TV in Seattle.

Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 10/01/12, on the eve of the 1st Presidential debate, Obama’s lead has been sliced from 20 points to 14. Among Independent voters, Obama had led by 20 points on 10/01/12, now leads by 9 points today. Among middle-income voters, Obama had led by 18 points, now leads by 7.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults 10/12/12 through 10/14/12. Of the adults, 628 were registered to vote in Washington state. Of the registered, 543 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day 11/06/12. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (75% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home phone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In an election today for President of the United States in Colorado, Mitt Romney and Barack Obama finish a whisker apart, with Romney nominally ahead 48% to 47% in a 2-way matchup, and with Romney nominally ahead 46% to 45% in a 3-way matchup that includes Libertarian Gary Johnson polling at 2%.

Today’s results reflect a 2-point shift to Romney when compared to a SurveyUSA Denver Post poll conducted 5 weeks ago. Then: Obama had a nominal 1-point advantage. Today: Romney has a nominal 1-point advantage. In between: Romney’s “47%” comments were publicized, which may have tipped the teeter-totter to the left, and Obama’s Denver debate was derided, which may have tipped the teeter-totter to the right. The 2-point shift reported here, poll-on-poll, likely masks a larger volatility. Any outcome in the fight for Colorado’s 9 electoral votes remains possible, 4 days till voting begins.

Given a 2-point shift in the overall numbers, few of the underlying demographic groups show dramatic movement. Exceptions: Among voters with a 4-year college degree, Obama had led by 5 points, Romney now leads by 5 points, a 10-point right turn. Among gun owners, Romney had led by 10 points, now leads by 22 points, a 12-point right turn. More typical: Romney is up 2 points among Independents, up 3 points among men, up 4 points among middle-income voters and among moderates, and up 5 points among voters under age 50. There is some offsetting movement to Obama, who among voters age 50 to 64, had been up 9, now is up 14, and among voters with some college education, where Obama had trailed by 10 and now trails by 2.

About 1 in 8 of those who watched the 10/03/12 Denver Presidential debate changed their mind after watching. Of the mind-changers: twice as many switched to Romney as switched to Obama. Specifically, in the pivotal group that switched candidate preference as a result of what they saw in Denver, 34% switched from Obama to Romney and another 25% switched from undecided to Romney, for a total of 59% who switched to Romney. Disproportionately, those who switched to Romney were men. 16% switched from Romney to Obama, and another 13% switched from undecided to Obama, for a total of 29% who switched to Obama. Disproportionately, those who switched to Obama were women.

Poll-on-poll, there is little movement in who voters trust to fix the economy (Romney, barely), who voters think would do better at reducing the federal debt (Romney), and which candidate is more in touch with the average working person (Obama). Voters still say that the President should focus on “jobs” ahead of all other issues, with “balancing the federal budget” still in 2nd place.

Amendment 64, which led by 11 points 5 weeks ago, leads by 5 points today. 48% vote Yes, 43% vote No. There has been an 18-point erosion in support among women, who 5 weeks ago favored Amendment 64 by 10 points, but who today oppose the Amendment by 8 points. There has been 14-points of erosion among those with a 4-year college degree, who 5 weeks ago favored the Amendment by 9 points, and now oppose it by 5 points. A similar but smaller shift occurred among upper-income voters.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. 725 adults from the state of Colorado were interviewed by SurveyUSA Tuesday 10/09/12 and Wednesday 10/10/12. Of the adults, 661 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 614 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. 70% of likely voters, reachable on a home telephone, were interviewed using recorded-voice telephone calls to landline phones. Sample was provided by SSI. The youngest-male method of respondent selection was used on calls to landlines. 30% of likely voters, unreachable on a home telephone, were shown an HTML questionnaire on their smart-phone or other electronic device. Sample provided by United Sample. Responses were minimally weighted to U.S. Census targets for gender, age, race and region. Where necessary, answer choices were rotated to prevent order bias, recency and latency effects. SurveyUSA assigns to each question within the instrument a theoretical margin of sampling error, and while such error is useful in theory, and is commonly cited in the presentation of research results, sampling error is only one of many types of error that may influence the outcome of an opinion research study. More practical concerns include the inability to contact some, the refusal of others to be interviewed and the inability of still others to speak the language. It is difficult to quantify non-sampling errors. Timing: All interviews for this survey were completed prior to the Vice Presidential debate on 10/11/12.