Cell-phone respondents are significantly more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate for President than are home-phone respondents, SurveyUSA research continues to show.

• In a survey of Pennsylvanians conducted for KDKA-TV in Pittsburgh, SurveyUSA found a 10-point difference between how home-phone and cell-phone respondents look at the issue. n=800, 24% are cell-phone respondents. Poll released 11/10/11. Mitt Romney carries Pennsylvania if only home-phone respondents are included in the research. But when cell-phone respondents are blended into the respondent population, the contest between Romney and Obama ends in a tie, 44% to 44%. Pennsylvania is a critical battleground state.
• In a survey of California adults conducted for 3 TV stations in California, SurveyUSA found a 16-point difference between how home phone and cell-phone respondents vote for President. Home-phone respondents are consistently more Republican friendly, cell-phone respondents are consistently more Democrat friendly. n=800, 25% are cell-phone respondents. Poll released 11/10/11.

Polls that exclude cell-phone respondents, such as those conducted by many SurveyUSA competitors, risk mis-characterizing public opinion. SurveyUSA estimates that by Election 2012, half of voters age 25 to 34, and one-third of voters age 35 to 44, will not be reachable on a home-phone. Make certain the polls you commission, and the competing polls you analyze, properly account for cell-phone respondents. No research firm has done more work studying cell-phone respondents at the state and local level than has SurveyUSA, America’s Pollster®.

SurveyUSA looks at the two most likely Republican nominees, alone and paired as a Republican ticket, running against the existing Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and a new Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Here is the progression of match-ups, and the results:

• Obama 50%
• Romney 39%
• Democrat by 11 points.

• Obama 56%
• Gingrich 32%
• Democrat by 24 points.

• Democratic ticket of Obama-Biden 52%
• Republican ticket of Romney-Gingrich 38%
• Democrats by 14 points.

• Democratic ticket of Obama-Clinton 57%
• Republican ticket of Romney-Gingrich 35%
• Democrats by 22 points.

• Democratic ticket of Obama-Biden 53%
• Republican ticket of Gingrich-Romney 35%
• Democrats by 18 points.

• Democratic ticket of Obama-Clinton 57%
• Republican ticket of Gingrich-Romney 33%
• Democrats by 24 points.

Let’s look at women: The Obama-Biden ticket gets 51% of female votes against Romney-Gingrich and 52% of female votes against Gingrich-Romney. But, an Obama-Clinton ticket gets 58% of the female vote against a Romney-Gingrich ticket at 59% of the female vote against a Gingrich-Romney ticket. Said another way: With Biden on the ticket, Obama carries CA women by an average of 14.5 points. With Clinton on the ticket, Obama carries CA women by an average of 25.5 points.

Let’s look at Independents: The Obama-Biden ticket gets 46% of Independent votes against Romney-Gingrich and 47% of Independent votes against Gingrich-Romney. But, an Obama-Clinton ticket gets 52% of the Independent vote against a Romney-Gingrich ticket at 53% of the Independent vote against a Gingrich-Romney ticket. Said another way: With Biden on the ticket, Obama carries CA Independent by an average of 14 points. With Clinton on the ticket, Obama carries CA Independents by an average of 21.5 points.

In 2008, Barack Obama carried California by 24 points over John McCain. California’s 55 electoral votes are 20% of the total needed to win the White House, and are the foundation of Obama’s re-election pyramid.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of CA adults 11/10/11. The survey was conducted multi-mode. Respondents who use a home phone (75% of adults) were interviewed on their home phone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who do not use a home phone (25% of adults) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop, tablet or other electronic device.

Full results and interactive crosstabs here.

SurveyUSA looks at the two most likely Republican nominees, alone and paired as a Republican ticket, running against the existing Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and a new Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Here is the progression of match-ups, and the results:

• Obama 31%
• Romney 56%
• Republicans by 25 points.

• Obama 35
• Gingrich 52%
• Republicans by 17 points.

• Democratic ticket of Obama-Biden 32%
• Republican ticket of Romney-Gingrich 56%
• Republicans by 24 points.

• Democratic ticket of Obama-Clinton 34%
• Republican ticket of Romney-Gingrich 56%
• Republicans by 22 points.

• Democratic ticket of Obama-Biden 34%
• Republican ticket of Gingrich-Romney 53%
• Republicans by 19 points.

• Democratic ticket of Obama-Clinton 34%
• Republican ticket of Gingrich-Romney 52%
• Republicans by 18 points.

In 2008, John McCain carried Kansas by 17 points.

Full results and interactive crosstabs here.

SurveyUSA poll data from the state of Pennsylvania, conducted for KDKA-TV Pittsburgh:

Pennsylvanians are not yet of one mind on Joe Paterno:

* 46% say Paterno is a scape-goat, but:
* 44% say Paterno participated in the cover-up of criminal behavior.
* 13% expect Paterno to be charged with a crime, But:
* 47% disagree with University, say Paterno should be allowed to coach tomorrow’s game against Nebraska.

* The tide has turned against assistant coach Mike McQueary, initially seen as a whistle-blower, now possibly seen as part of a cover-up. 65% say McQueary should not be allowed on the sidelines for this weekend’s football game (a decision that was made by University officials after the field period for this survey).* Twice as many say McQueary participated in a criminal cover-up as say he helped expose criminal activity.

* 24% today say Penn State actively enabled Jerry Sandusky to commit crimes against children, up from 16%, when SurveyUSA asked the question on 11/08/11. (See interactive tracking graph, a SurveyUSA exclusive.

* Penn State alumni (33% of those following news stories) see the matter differently than do others in Pennsylvania. 58% of alumni say Paterno is a scapegoat, compared to 41% of the rest of the state. 58% of alumni want Paterno on the sidelines for Saturday’s game against Nebraska, compared to 41% of the rest of the state. 17% of alumni say Penn State “did what it could” to protect children, compared to 9% of the rest of the state.

Second Mile “Knew All Along” about Penn State Sandusky, Should Be Shut Down:

* Officials at The Second Mile foundation, where children allegedly were preyed upon by adult predators, by 3:2 “knew all along” about Jerry Sandusky’s behavior, Pennsylvanians say.
* 21% expect officials at the Second Mile to face criminal charges.

* By 4:3, respondents say The Second Mile should be shut down. Roman Catholics by 16 points want Second Mile to be shut down, twice the margin as non-Catholics.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of PA adults 11/10/11. Of those interviewed, 712 were familiar with news stories and were asked the substantive questions in the survey. The survey was conducted multi-mode. Respondents who use a home phone (76% of adults) were interviewed on their home phone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who do not use a home phone (24% of adults) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop, tablet or other electronic device.

SurveyUSA looks at the two most likely Republican nominees, alone and paired as a Republican ticket, running against the existing Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and a new Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Here is the progression of match-ups, and the results:

* Obama 44%
* Romney 44%

* Obama 47%
* Gingrich 40%

* Democratic ticket of Obama-Biden 46%
* Republican ticket of Romney-Gingrich 45%

* Democratic ticket of Obama-Clinton 50%
* Republican ticket of Romney-Gingrich 41%

* Democratic ticket of Obama-Biden 46%
* Republican ticket of Gingrich-Romney 42%

* Democratic ticket of Obama-Clinton 50%
* Republican ticket of Gingrich-Romney 40%

Let’s look at women: The Obama-Biden ticket gets 49% of female votes against both Republican tickets, Romney-Gingrich and Gingrich-Romney. But, an Obama-Clinton ticket gets 57% of the female vote against both tickets. Said another way: With Biden on the ticket, Obama carries PA women by an average of 10 points. With Clinton on the ticket, Obama carries PA women by an average of 23 points.

In 2008, Obama defeated John McCain by 10 points. Pennsylvania has 21 electoral votes, which are critical to the Democrats’ chances of holding the White House in 2012.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of PA adults 11/10/11. The survey was conducted multi-mode. Respondents who use a home phone (76% of adults) were interviewed on their home phone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who do not use a home phone (24% of adults) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop, tablet or other electronic device.

Full results and interactive crosstabs here.

One year to election day In head-to-head match-ups for President of the United States in Minnesota, Barack Obama leads all Republican challengers, 1 of them by less than the 10 percentage points that Obama defeated John McCain by in 2008, the rest by more. Minnesota is a key battleground state that Obama needs to carry to keep the White House. At this hour:

• Obama 45%, Mitt Romney 39%
• Obama 48%, Rick Perry 35%
• Obama 48%, Herman Cain 35%
• Obama 57%, Michele Bachmann 29%, largely unchanged from SurveyUSA polling released 05/24/11
• Obama 48%, Ron Paul 35%

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 600 state of MN adults 11/02/11 through 11/07/11. Of the adults, 543 were registered to vote and were asked the substantive questions. The survey was conducted multi-mode. Respondents who use a home phone (78% of adults) were interviewed on their home phone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who do not use a home phone (22% of adults) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop, tablet or other electronic device. Interviews for this survey were conducted across 6 days and nights, at a time when Herman Cain was increasingly in the news. Respondents interviewed at the beginning of the field period would have not heard about possible Cain sexual misconduct; respondents interviewed at the end of the field period would have seen and heard from one of Cain’s accusers.

Full results of this poll can be found here .

One year to Election Day, Incumbent U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar, of the DFL party, leads 2 well-known Minnesota Republicans by a dozen points, and leads lesser known Republicans by 30 points, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis St Paul. In head-to-head matchups among MN registered voters, SurveyUSA finds:

• Klobuchar 49%, Tim Pawlenty 37%
• Klobuchar 50%, Norm Coleman 37%
• Klobuchar 55%, Dan Severson 23%
• Klobuchar 56%, Joe Arwood 22%

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 600 state of MN adults 11/02/11 through 11/07/11. Of the adults, 543 were registered to vote and were asked the substantive questions. The survey was conducted multi-mode. Respondents who use a home phone (78% of adults) were interviewed on their home phone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who do not use a home phone (22% of adults) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop, tablet or other electronic device.

Results of a SurveyUSA poll  of the state of California:

• 64% say Herman Cain is unfit to be President of the United States (including a majority of Republicans, Democrats and Independents, a majority of men and women, and a majority of whites and blacks).
• 48% say Cain should drop out of the race for president.
• A plurality say there is a “pattern of wrongdoing.”

Interviews were conducted after a woman on 11/07/11 described an unwanted advance by Cain, but before Cain’s 11/08/11 press conference and before the identity of a 2nd accuser was made public.

Tea Party Sees Cain Allegations Through Unique Prism: Among those in CA following the story, members of the Tea Party see the allegations against Cain differently than the rest of the state sees them.

• Tea Party members are 3 times more likely than the rest of CA to say there is “no evidence” of wrongdoing by Cain.
• Tea Party members are half as likely as the rest of CA to see a “pattern of wrongdoing” by Cain.
• Tea Party members are 3 times more likely to say Cain is “fit” to be President.
• Tea Party members are 1/3 as likely to say Cain is “unfit” to be President.
• Tea Party members are 1/3 as likely to say Cain should drop out of the race.
• Tea Party members are 4 times more likely to say Cain has behaved better than most other politicians.
• Tea Party members are twice as likely to say that the Cain accusers end up looking worse than does Cain.
• Tea Party members are twice as likely to say Cain has said all he needs to say on this topic.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research. On behalf of KABC-TV in Los Angeles, KPIX-TV, in San Francisco and KGTV-TV in San Diego, SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 CA adults 11/07/11. Of the 1,000 interviewed, 587 were following news stories about Cain and were asked the substantive questions. The survey was conducted multi-mode. Respondents who use a home phone (81% of adults) were interviewed on their home phone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who do not use a home phone (19% of adults) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop, tablet or other electronic device.

What do Pennsylvania adults make of the news stories coming out of Penn State University about the sexual molestation of children over 15 years:

• Just 13% say Penn State did what it could to prevent crimes against children.
• 65% say Penn State looked the other way and could have done more to protect children.
• 16% say Penn State actively enabled former football coach Jerry Sandusky to commit crimes.

SurveyUSA poll of 604 PA adults, who are following the news out of Penn State, conducted for KDKA-TV Pittsburgh. Complete results here.

Cell-phone respondents are significantly more likely to call for the resignation of Joe Paterno, the head football coach at Penn State University, than are home-phone respondents.

In a survey of Pennsylvania adults conducted for KDKA-TV in Pittsburgh, SurveyUSA found a 25-point difference between how home-phone and cell-phone respondents look at the issue. n=604, released 11/08/11.

In a survey of California adults conducted for 3 TV stations in California, SurveyUSA found a 17-point difference between how home phone and cell-phone respondents look at the issue. n=400, released 11/08/11.

Polls that exclude cell-phone respondents, such as those conducted by many SurveyUSA competitors, risk mis-characterizing public opinion. SurveyUSA estimates that by Election 2012, half of voters age 25 to 34, and one-third of voters age 35 to 44, will not be reachable on a home-phone. Make certain the polls you commission, and the competing polls you analyze, properly account for cell-phone respondents.