48 Hours Till Early Voting Begins in Kansas, No Evident Erosion in Trump Support; Republican Moran Safe

SurveyUSA Operations - 95 days ago

5 weeks ago, riding high nationally, Donald Trump led Hillary Clinton by 12 points in the reliably red state of Kansas. Today, riding low, Trump leads Clinton by 11 points, effectively unchanged, as Sunflower State voters continue to see the Republican as the better choice for President, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for KSN-TV in Wichita.

Trump is at 47%, Clinton is at 36%, Libertarian Gary Johnson is at 7% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein is at 2% today, 48 hours until early voting in Kansas begins. Any misgivings about Trump that voters have are expressed this way: 5 weeks ago, 57% of Trump voters said they were voting “for Trump,” compared to 38% who said they were voting “against Clinton.” Today, 51% are voting “for Trump,” a decline of 6 percentage points; 47% say they are voting “against Clinton,” an increase of 9 percentage points. The opposite is true of Clinton: 5 weeks ago, 55% of Clinton supporters said they were voting “for Clinton,” compared to 43% who were voting “against Trump.” Today, 64% of Clinton backers are voting “for Clinton,” an increase of 9 percentage points; 34% are voting “against Trump,” a decrease of 8 percentage points. 41% of Trump supporters today have reservations about Trump. 44% of Clinton supporters today have reservations about Clinton.

Kansas voters say the economy is the most important issue in 2016. Of voters focused on the economy, Trump leads Clinton by 15 points. Among voters who say terrorism is the most important issue, Trump leads Clinton by 25 points. Among voters who say immigration is the most important issue, Trump leads Clinton by 67 points.

Though Clinton performs better among women than men, she still trails Trump among women in Kansas. Trump leads by 6 points among all women, which is a blend of him leading by 5 points among suburban women and leading by 23 points among rural women.

In the contest for United States Senator from Kansas, incumbent Republican Jerry Moran is well positioned at this hour for a second term, 25 points ahead of Democratic challenger Patrick Wiesner. 5 weeks ago, Moran led Wiesner 50% to 34%, today, 56% to 31%. Libertarian Robert Garrard is at 5% today. In rural Kansas, Moran leads by 43 points. Among seniors, Moran leads by 44 points. Among evangelical voters, Moran leads by 59 points.

Statewide Favorability Ratings:

Democratic President Barack Obama is viewed extremely favorably by 19% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 42%.
Republican Governor Sam Brownback is viewed extremely favorably by 5% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 49%.
Republican Senator Pat Roberts is viewed extremely favorably by 9% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 20%.
Moran is viewed extremely favorably by 11% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 12%.

Context and Methodology:

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Kansas adults 10/11/16 through 10/15/16. Of the adults, 675 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 601 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 election for President, 549 were determined to be likely to vote in the election for U.S. Senator. 3% of voters interviewed for this survey said they almost always vote in Presidential elections, but would not vote in 2016 because they did not like any of the candidates on the ballot. An offsetting 4% of voters said they almost never vote in Presidential elections but would vote in 2016 because they were drawn to one of this year’s candidates. All of the interviews for this survey were conducted after the 2nd Presidential debate on 10/09/16, but during a week when a number of women came forward with allegation of possible sexual misconduct by Trump, and at a time when Trump, claiming to be newly “unshackled,” spoke less guardedly. It is unclear whether additional credible allegations will surface against Trump, or whether the allegations made thus far will be discredited and the tone and tenor of the campaign discourse will become less rancorous. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (62% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (38% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Kansas has 6 electoral votes in 2016. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried the state by 22 points as Obama won a 2nd term. In 2008, John McCain carried the state by 15 points as Obama won his 1st term. In 2004, George W Bush carried KS by 25 points over John Kerry on Bush’s way to a 2nd term. In 2000, Bush carried KS by 21 points. Early voting begins in 48 hours, on Wednesday 10/19/16.

On Eve of Final Presidential Debate, Trump in California Risks Getting Smaller Percentage of Popular Vote Than Any Republican Candidate in the Past 100 Years; Recreational Marijuana Prop 64 Still Leads Ever-So-Slightly; Harris Safe

SurveyUSA Operations - 95 days ago

Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have lost support in the past 17 days, as Republicans beat up on Clinton and Democrats beat up on Trump, according to a SurveyUSA pre-election tracking poll conducted for KABC-TV in Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno.

Compared to an identical poll conducted before the 1st Presidential debate, Clinton is down 3 points, Trump is down 3 points, and undecided voters have doubled. Today, as then, Clinton’s lead is 26 percentage points.

With Trump’s support down to 30% at this hour, he falls below the Plimsoll line, and risks receiving a smaller percentage of the popular vote than any Republican candidate in the past 100 years. The low-water mark is currently held by George Herbert Walker Bush, who got 33% of the popular vote in California in a 3-way contest in 1992.

Trump’s support has steadily eroded among the youngest voters, down from 29% in mid-September to 25% in late-September to 20% today. Among independents, Trump has dropped from 28% in mid-September to 22% in late-September to 17% today. Among high-school educated voters, Trump has fallen from 48% to 28%. Among gun owners, Trump has fallen from 47% to 37%. Among affluent voters, Trump has fallen from 38% to 31%.

Counter-intuitively, given the cloud that Trump now campaigns under, his support among Evangelicals has increased, from 46% to 49% to now 53%. Clinton among Evangelicals has fallen from 46% to 36%. Among strong Republicans, Trump is up from 80% to 89%. Clinton is down from 19% to 6%. Among very conservative voters, Clinton is down from 29% to 19%. Among very liberal voters, Trump is down from 6% to 2%, Clinton is up from 84% to 92%. The number of Trump supporters who say they are not voting “for Trump,” but rather “against Clinton,” has increased from 36% to 43% to now 46%. At the same time, the number of Trump voters who acknowledge having reservations about Trump has not budged: 33% then, 33% now.

In an election today for United States Senator from CA, to replace retiring Democrat Barbara Boxer, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Democrat Loretta Sanchez, 45% to 24%. The 21-point Harris advantage is up materially poll-on-poll; it is her largest lead to date. The number of Latinos voting for Harris has dropped from 39% to 35% to now 30%. The number of independents voting for Harris has increased from 27% to 33% to now 35%.

Ballot Measures:

Prop 56, which would increase the tax on cigarettes to $2 per pack, is favored to pass 57% to 35%. Support has eroded.
Proposition 62, which would end the death penalty in CA and replace it with life in prison, trails by 18 points today and is headed for defeat.
Proposition 63, which outlaws large-capacity magazines and requires background checks on ammo purchases, leads by more than 2:1 and will pass.
Proposition 64, which would legalize, regulate and tax recreational marijuana, is backed 51% to 40%. Unchanged from mid-and late-September.

Statewide Favorability Ratings: 

President Barack Obama is viewed extremely favorably by 39% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 24%.
Trump is viewed extremely favorably by 12% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 56%. Worse than before.
Clinton is viewed extremely favorably by 20% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 33%. Worse than before.
Governor Jerry Brown is viewed extremely favorably by 15% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 17%. Unchanged.
Dianne Feinstein is viewed extremely favorably by 17% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 18%.
Boxer is viewed extremely favorably by 17% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 21%. Better than before.

Context and Methodology: 

SurveyUSA interviewed 900 state of California adults 10/13/16 through 10/15/16. All interviews were conducted after the 2nd Presidential debate on 10/09/16, and during a time of unflattering revelations about both Trump and Clinton. Of the adults, 820 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 725 were judged by SurveyUSA to have already voted in the Presidential election or as certain to do so before polls close on 11/08/16. Of registered voters, 3% tell SurveyUSA they almost always vote in a Presidential election but will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates. 6% of voters tell SurveyUSA they almost never vote in Presidential elections but will vote in 2016 because they are particularly drawn to one of the candidates. The survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (58% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (42% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the screen of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Polling ballot measures and citizen initiatives is an inexact science. In general, having nothing to do with California specifically and having nothing to do with 2016 uniquely, opposition to a ballot measure increases as Election Day approaches. Rarely does support for a ballot measure increase over time. As a result, the outcome of Prop 64 cannot be assured at this hour.

After Denouncing Trump, Republican Paulsen Well-Positioned for Re-Election in Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District

SurveyUSA Operations - 96 days ago

25 days until votes are counted in Minnesota’s 3rd U.S. Congressional District, incumbent Republican Erik Paulsen is comfortably ahead of Democratic challenger Terri Bonoff, 49% to 38%, in spite of, or perhaps because of, Paulsen’s decision to denounce Donald Trump, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities.

Paulsen seeks his 5th term in Washington. His district, west of Minneapolis, is bisected by U.S. Highway 12 running East and West through Orono and Independence counties, and by Interstate 494 running North and South through Eden Prairie, Minnetonka and Plymouth counties. Paulsen was first elected in 2008. He won by 8 percentage points in 2008, won by 22 points in 2010, won by 16 points in 2012, won by 25 points in 2014, and leads by 11 points at this hour.

Paulsen holds 90% of the Republican base, compared to Bonoff who holds 84% of the Democratic base. Bonoff leads among the youngest voters, but Paulsen leads by double-digits among voters age 35+. Independents back Paulsen by 11 points. Moderates break for Bonoff by 4 points. Paulsen leads among those with less formal education and those with more formal education, leads among the rich, leads among the middle-income voters, and leads among the poor.

Paulsen has a Plus 22 Net job approval rating — 51% of 11/08/16 voters approve of the job Paulsen is doing in Congress; 29% disapprove. Voters focused on terrorism, taxes and the economy back Paulsen. Voters focused on health care split. Voters focused on education back Bonoff.

About this poll: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 registered voters from Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District 10/10/16 through 10/13/16, using Registration Based sample (RBS, also known as: voter list sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington D.C. All of the interviews were conducted after Paulsen announced 10/09/16 that he would not vote for Donald Trump, the titular head of his Republican party. Of the registered voters, 579 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home phone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were contacted on their cell phone, by live interviewers, who hand-dialed each cell phone number, secured the respondent’s cooperation, guaranteed the respondent’s safety, read the questions, input the answers, and remained on the phone until the completion of the interview.

In Arlington TX, Voters Deadlocked Over New Baseball Stadium for Texas Rangers

SurveyUSA Operations - 96 days ago

25 days until votes are counted in the city of Arlington TX, voters are split on a ballot measure that would fund a new professional baseball stadium for the Texas Rangers, according to this exclusive WFAA/Star-Telegram Arlington Ballpark Poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

42% of voters are “for” the proposed public-private partnership, which would extend an existing one-half cent sales-tax, and would impose other taxes on tourists. 42% of voters are against. 16% tell SurveyUSA they are not yet sure how they would vote on a proposed ballot measure.

The ballot measure is backed by men, opposed by women, backed by middle-aged voters age 35% to 49%, but opposed by young and old.

Voters by 5:3 say it is unlikely that the Rangers will leave Arlington, if the measure does not pass.

Context: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults from the city of Arlington 10/11/16 through 10/13/16. Of the adults, 606 were registered to vote. Of those who are registered, SurveyUSA determined by 504 were likely to vote. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters), were shown a questionnaire on the screen of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Caution: Opposition to a ballot measure — having nothing uniquely to do with Texas or the city of Arlington or with 2016 — increases over time. While it is possible that the Rangers’ stadium will built, this year’s ballot measure may be the last of the great hurrahs.

In Texas, Trump Sees Clinton High-Beams in His Rear-View Mirror: A Blip on the Radar? Or Early Evidence of a GOP Collapse?

SurveyUSA Operations - 99 days ago

26 days till votes are counted in Texas, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 4 points, 47% to 43%, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 3% and Green Party Candidate Jill Stein at 1%, according to an exclusive Texas Tenga poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

No Republican has carried Texas by fewer than 13 points since Bob Dole defeated Bill Clinton by 5 points 20 years ago, when Texan Ross Perot siphoned 7% of the vote. Today, Trump leads by 33 points among white Texans, but Clinton leads by 64 points among African Americans and by 23 points among Latinos. (The survey was conducted bilingually, in the respondent’s choice of English or Spanish. 27% of the likely voter electorate is Latino in SurveyUSA’s data set.)

Though there is not an obvious gender gap — Trump leads narrowly among both men and women — different women respond differently to Trump: Among rural Texas women, Trump leads by 41 points. Among suburban Texas women, Clinton leads by 1 point. Trump leads by 35 points among Evangelical voters, leads by 10 points in military households and leads by 10 points among high-school educated voters. Clinton has a narrow advantage among lower-income and middle-income Texans, but Trump leads by 13 points among affluent voters.

Trump holds 88% of the Republican base, but trails Clinton by a nominal 2 percentage points among independents. Clinton holds 94% of the Democratic base, and leads Trump by 8 points among self-identified moderates. Trump leads among voters age 50+, Clinton leads among voters under age 50. The older and whiter the electorate, the better Trump will perform.

Of Trump supporters, 61% say they are voting “for Trump,” compared to 39% who are voting “against Clinton.” Of Clinton supporters, 68% say they are voting “for Clinton,” compared to 30% who are voting “against Trump.”

Trump leads by 8 points in North Texas, which includes the cities of Dallas and Fort Worth, and Dallas, Tarrant and 41 surrounding counties. Trump leads by 6 points in East Texas, which includes the city of Houston, Harris and 59 surrounding counties. Trump leads by 15 points in West Texas, which includes the city of El Paso, El Paso County and 87 surrounding counties. Clinton leads in Central Texas, which includes the cities of Austin and San Antonio, and Travis, Bexar and 26 other counties. And Clinton leads by 9 points in South Texas, which includes the cities of Laredo and Brownsville, and Webb, Cameron and 33 other counties.

Context and methodology: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from the state of Texas 10/10/16 through 10/12/16. During these 3 days, Trump was the center of a firestorm of criticism, including his un-endorsement by a number of leading national Republicans. It is unclear if, during the 4 days before early voting begins and the 26 days until all votes are counted, whether Trump will continue to sink, stabilize or rebound. The electorate is volatile. It is possible Trump will carry Texas by more traditional margins than this data set shows. It is also possible that the state’s score will be settled in the single digits. Of the 800 adults interviewed, 734 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 638 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/08/16 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephone (67% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home phones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (33% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Mitt Romney carried Texas by 16 points in 2012. John McCain carried Texas by 13 points in 2008. Texan George W. Bush carried Texas by 23 points in 2004 when Bush was elected to his 2nd term. Bush carried Texas by 22 points in 2000 when he was elected to his first term.

In Oregon, Brown and Pierce in Dogfight for Governor Mansion, Every Vote Vital; Clinton Safely Atop Trump; Wyden Well-Positioned for Re-Election to U.S. Senate

SurveyUSA Operations - 100 days ago

26 days till votes are counted in Oregon, Democrat Hillary Clinton is 10 points in front of Republican Donald Trump, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV in Portland. Libertarian Gary Johnson is backed by 6%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets 4%.

Reciprocal efforts by the Trump campaign to suppress Democratic turnout and by the Clinton campaign to suppress Republican turnout may not cause Oregon’s 7 Electoral Votes to flip, but such cross-winds could well make a difference in the state’s fiercely fought Governor’s election.

At the top of the ticket, Clinton leads by 23 points among women; Trump leads by 4 points among men — a 27-point Gender Gap. Clinton leads by 4 points among rural women, leads by 22 points among suburban women. Clinton leads by 21 points among voters under age 50; the candidates run even among voters age 50+.

Clinton holds 91% of the Democratic base. Trump holds 82% of the Republican base. Moderates break for Clinton by 18 points. Independent men vote for Trump by 16 points. Independent women vote for Clinton by 10 points. Voters focused on terrorism, national security and immigration back Trump. Voters focused on the economy, education and the environment back Clinton.

Of Trump supporters, 51% say they are voting “for Trump,” compared to 48% who are voting “against Clinton.” Of Clinton supporters, 64% say they are voting “for Clinton,” compared to 35% who are voting “against Trump.” 52% of Trump backers are “enthusiastic,” compared to 58% of Clinton backers. 44% of Trump backers have reservations about their candidate, compared to 39% of Clinton backers.

Trump carries military households by 23 points, carries Evangelicals by 47 points. Clinton leads by 3 points among the least affluent voters, leads by 10 points among middle-income voters, and leads by 24 points among affluent voters. Trump leads among high-school educated voters, Clinton leads among those who have started college but not finished, and among those with a 4-year college degree.

In an election for Governor today, 10/13/16, 6 days till mail-in voting begins, Democrat Kate Brown leads republican Bud Pierce 46% to 42%. Pierce holds 81% of the GOP base, Brown holds 84% of the Democratic base. Independent men break for Pierce by 14 points. Independent women split. High-school educated men back Pierce by 21 points. College-educated white voters back Brown by 19 points.

Pierce leads among rural men by 24 points; rural women split. Brown leads by 8 points in greater Portland. Pierce leads by a nominal 2 points in the rest of Oregon. Pierce leads by 50 points among Evangelicals and leads by 26 points in military households. Pierce leads overwhelmingly among voters focused on immigration and national security and leads materially among voters focused on terrorism. Brown leads materially among voters focused on the economy and leads overwhelmingly among voters focused on education and the environment.

In the contest for United States Senator from Oregon, Democrat Ron Wyden is cruising to re-election for his 4th full term, today leading Republican Mark Callahan 54% to 32%. Wyden leads among men and women, young and old, rich and poor, whites and non-whites.

Context and methodology: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from the state of Oregon 10/10/16 through 10/12/16. All interviews were conducted after the 2nd Presidential debate on 10/09/13. Of the 800 adults interviewed, 730 were registered to vote. Of the 730 registered voters, 654 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/08/16 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home phones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Barack Obama carried Oregon by 12 points in 2012 and by 16 points in 2008. John Kerry carried Oregon by 4 points in 2004. Al Gore carried Oregon by 3 points in 2000. In 2010, Wyden defeated Republican Jim Huffman by 18 points; Wyden leads by 22 points today. In 2015, Democratic Governor John Kitzhaber resigned, leaving then Secretary of State Brown to take his place.

Jump Ball in Khanna-Honda Re-Match in California’s 17th Congressional District

SurveyUSA Operations - 103 days ago

As early voting in California begins, Incumbent Democrat Mike Honda and Democratic challenger Ro Khanna are in a fight for every vote, exactly as they were in the June 2016 California primary, when Khanna received 2,200 votes more than Honda, and exactly as the 2 were when they faced-off in the November 2014 general election, when Honda received 4,700 more votes than Khanna.

Today, in SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for KPIX-TV in San Francisco, Khanna edges Honda 38% to 37%. The results are well within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error; Khanna’s nominal 1-point advantage may or may not be meaningful; any outcome is possible when votes are counted in 30 days, given that 26% of likely voters today tell SurveyUSA they are undecided at this hour, and especially given historic turbulence at the top of the ticket in the race for President.

In California’s “Top 2″ primary system, it is possible for 2 Democrats to face each other in a general election. That is true here, in a congressional district that represents Silicon Valley: no Republican is on the ballot. However, support for the 2 candidates follows party lines. Honda leads by 15 points among those who tell SurveyUSA they consider themselves Democrats. Khanna leads by 22 points among those who tell SurveyUSA they consider themselves Republicans. If Republican turnout is low in the 11/08/16 election, because of conservative reluctance to show-up for Donald Trump, that benefits Honda.

Khanna leads by 7 points among the district’s white voters. Honda leads narrowly among the district’s Asian voters. A larger turnout by Asian-Americans helps Honda. Honda leads among the youngest — and often least reliable — voters. Khanna leads among Baby Boomers. Honda leads among those who started but did not finish college. Khanna leads among those with a 4-year college degree. Affluent voters back Khanna. Lower-income and middle-income voters back Honda.

Methodology: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 registered voters from California’s 17th U.S. Congressional District 10/04/16 through 10/07/16, using Registration-Based Sampling (aka: voter-list sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 550 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote on or before the 11/08/16 deadline. This research was conducted 100% by telephone: Respondents reachable on their home telephone (68% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (32% of likely voters) were contacted by live operators, who qualified the respondent, secured their cooperation, interviewed the respondent, entered their responses, and remained on the line until the interview was over. Honda is running for his 9th term in Congress.

3 Days Till Voting in City of San Diego Begins, Measure C Headed for Defeat; Measure D Might Get Simple Majority, But Unlikely to Get 2/3 of Votes Cast

SurveyUSA Operations - 106 days ago

30 days till votes are counted, City of San Diego voters are almost certain not to give Measure C the 2/3 majority that it would need to pass, according to a SurveyUSA pre-election poll conducted for KGTV-TV and the Union Tribune newspaper. Measure D, which some say needs a simple majority and others say needs a 2/3 majority, might end up with a simple majority, but is unlikely to pass by 2:1, which may be the threshold a court in arrears decides that D needs to become law. It is also possible that neither measure will pass.

Measure C, sponsored by the Chargers football team, trails 41% to 36% at this hour. Some of the money the city would collect if C becomes law could go to build a new stadium for the Chargers. Measure C is backed by men, Republicans, young voters and the city’s black and Latino populations. Measure C is opposed by whites, women, independents and Democrats, and voters of every income level. 23% of likely voters tell SurveyUSA they are not yet certain how they will vote on C. If those uncertain voters are removed, the measure today is defeated 53% to 47%.

Measure D, created by a coalition of community leaders and environmental groups, which some see as more ambitious and more complex than Measure C, is backed today 32% to 26%. 42% of likely voters tell SurveyUSA they are not yet certain how they will vote on D. If those uncertain voters are removed, Measure D passes today 55% to 43%. That would be more than a simple majority but short of a 2:1 supermajority.

At this hour, D is backed by a broad coalition, which includes both men and women … voters under age 65 … whites, Latinos and Asians … Republicans, Democrats and Independents … moderates and liberals … rich and poor … well-educated and poorly-educated. Only “very conservative” voters oppose D. D-backers should temper enthusiasm with the caution that follows in the next paragraph.

Context and Methodology: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 city of San Diego adults 10/04/16 through 10/06/16. Of the adults, 587 were registered to vote in the state of California. Of the registered, 571 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote before the 11/08/16 deadline. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (63% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (37% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Polling ballot measures and citizen initiatives is an inexact science. In general, having nothing to do with California specifically, nothing to do with San Diego specifically, nothing to do with football specifically, and having nothing to do with 2016 uniquely, opposition to a ballot measure increases as Election Day approaches. Rarely does support for a ballot measure increase over time. Most ballot measures trailing weeks before Election Day go down to defeat. Some ballot measures which appear headed for passage weeks before Election Day also go down to defeat. Use caution in interpreting results of Measure D.

New Mexico Whites Split, But Clinton Carries the State With Overwhelming Support from Latino Voters; Democrat Toulouse Oliver Well Positioned To Defeat Republican Espinoza in Secretary of State Contest

SurveyUSA Operations - 108 days ago

Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson captures 14% of the vote for President of the United States in an election in New Mexico today, 10/03/16, 19 days till early voting begins, but that is not enough to derail Democrat Hillary Clinton, who defeats Donald Trump at this hour 46% to 33%, with Green Party candidate Jill Stein finishing 4th behind Johnson at 2%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KOB-TV, the Hubbard Broadcasting station in Albuquerque.

Trump carries white voters by a nominal 2 percentage points, 42% to 40%, but Clinton buries Trump among New Mexico’s Latino voters, 52% to 21%. Clinton holds 83% of the Democratic base, compared to just 76% of Republican who stand with Trump. Johnson siphons 24% of the Independent vote, where Clinton manages 35% to Trump’s 29%. Clinton leads among college-educated whites by 22 points. She leads among suburban women by 21 points. She leads among the most affluent voters by 15 points.

Half of Trump supporters say they are voting “for” Trump, half say they are voting “against” Clinton. By contrast, 66% of Clinton supporters are voting “for” Clinton; just 33% are voting “against” Trump. Of those who are voting for Johnson, 21% say they are voting “against” Trump, 5% are voting “against” Clinton, and 70% are voting “for” Johnson. Voters who say the economy is the most important issue facing the country back Clinton 49% to 31%. Voters focused on terrorism or immigration back Trump. Voters focused on education or the environment back Clinton.

In the contest to fill the open seat for New Mexico Secretary of State, Democrat Maggie Toulouse Oliver is well positioned to defeat Republican Nora Espinoza, 54% to 34%. Toulouse Oliver, the Bernalillo County Clerk, is backed by 57% of Latinos, 59% of seniors and 60% of college-educated voters. She gets 90% of the vote among “very liberal” voters. Espinoza gets 68% of the vote among “very conservative” voters, but trails Toulouse Oliver in every region of the state and among voters of all ages.

Context and Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of NM adults 09/28/16 through 10/02/16. Of the adults, 682 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 594 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before 11/08/16 in the Presidential election; 524 were likely to vote in the Secretary of State contest. 5% of registered voters say they almost always vote in Presidential elections but will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates. An offsetting 7% of voters tell SurveyUSA they almost never vote in Presidential election, but will vote in 2016 because they are uniquely drawn to one of the candidates. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (69% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (31% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Democrat Barack Obama defeated Republican Mitt Romney by 10 points in 2012 and defeated Republican John McCain by 15 points in 2008. In 2004 and 2000, Democrats John Kerry and Al Gore carried New Mexico by less than 1 percentage point. New Mexico’s last elected Secretary of State, Republican Dianna Duran, resigned after pleading guilty to felony embezzlement and money laundering. The seat is open. Gary Johnson was elected Governor of New Mexico in 1994 and 1998. He ran as a Republican.

Clinton, Trump Neck-and-Neck in NC; Burr and Ross Just as Close in Senate Match-up; Can Cooper and HB2 Flip Governor’s Seat to Blue?

SurveyUSA Operations - 109 days ago

In an election for President of the United States held in North Carolina today, 10/04/16, 16 days until early voting begins, Hillary Clinton edges Donald Trump 46% to 44%, according to this latest exclusive WRAL-TV News Poll conducted by SurveyUSA. 5% of likely voters today vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson; 6% are undecided.

Clinton leads by 12 points among women; Trump leads by 9 among men — a 21 point gender gap. Trump leads by 20 among white voters; Clinton leads by 75 among African Americans. Clinton holds 91% of the Democratic base; Trump holds 87% of Republicans. Independents narrowly break for Trump. Trump leads in Charlotte and to the west, as well as in greater Greensboro; Clinton leads in greater Raleigh. The candidates tie in the southern and coastal portions of the state. Suburban men narrowly back Trump; suburban woman strongly support Clinton. Voters focused on health care support Clinton 2:1; voters most focused on the economy back Clinton by an 8-point margin. Those most focused on immigration support Trump 4:1; those focused on national security support Trump 5:3.

In the race for United States Senate, incumbent Republican Richard Burr narrowly leads Democrat Deborah Ross, 46% to 44%. Libertarian Sean Haugh takes 3%; 7% are undecided. Burr, who is seeking his third term, leads by 12 points among men and by 20 points among white voters. Ross, a former General Assembly member from Raleigh, leads by 7 points among women and by 57 among African Americans. Ross leads 2:1 among those who almost never attend religious services; Burr leads 5:3 among those who attend regularly.

Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper leads incumbent Republican Pat McCrory by 4 points in the race for Governor, 48% to 44%. Independents, who break for the Republicans in the Presidential and US Senate races, here narrowly favor the Democrat, who also leads nearly 2:1 among moderates. Suburban men are divided; suburban women back Cooper by 21 points. McCrory, seeking his second term, previously was mayor of Charlotte for 14 years. Charlotte and western Carolina voters narrowly favor McCrory by a 5-point margin; those in the Greensboro area support McCrory by 6 points. Cooper leads by 24 points in the Raleigh area; voters elsewhere split. Cooper has strong support among voters focused on HB2, on education, and on health care. McCrory has strong support among voters focused on the economy, public safety, and taxes.

52% of registered voters today say they disapprove of House Bill 2, the state law passed in March. 35% say they approve of HB2. 64% say the law has hurt North Carolina’s national image. 65% say it has hurt the state’s ability to attract and keep businesses.

In the wake of NBA, NCAA, and ACC basketball events being pulled from North Carolina, 47% say the state legislature and governor bears the responsibility for the associated financial losses to the state. 31% put the blame on the leagues themselves. Another 12% say the Charlotte City Council bears the most responsibility.

44% say HB2 should be entirely repealed; 19% say the law should be repealed but its restrictions on restroom use should be left in place. 14% say some other combination of changes should be made; 15% say the law should be left as it is.

51% of likely voters say a candidate’s position on HB2 will strongly influence how they vote this November; 28% say it will somewhat influence their vote. 15% say it will have no impact.

Context and Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of North Carolina adults 09/29/16 through 10/03/16. Of the adults, 728 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 656 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before 11/08/16 in the Presidential election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Republican Mitt Romney defeated Democrat Barack Obama by 2 points in 2012; Obama defeated Republican John McCain by less than 1 point in 2008. North Carolina has 15 electoral votes.

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