Last weekend, during the height of the reporting of Barack Obama’s “bitter” comment, SurveyUSA was in the field conducting it’s monthly head-to-head polling. Today, we have the results, showing six states flipping between last month and this month — but not all necessarily in the directions you’d expect.

Full results to follow, but for now:

• Two states where Obama led John McCain in March have flipped, with McCain now leading Obama.
• Two states where McCain led Obama have also flipped, with Obama now leading McCain, for a net wash.
• One state where Hillary Clinton led McCain has flipped.
• One state where McCain led Clinton has flipped as well.
• Overall, Obama gained ground in 7 of the 15 states we polled, lost ground in six, and remained steady in two; Clinton gained ground in 5 states, lost ground in 8, and remained steady in 2.

An in-depth look at Virginia — one of the states that’s flipping this month — within the hour.

SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for WCAU-TV in Philadelphia, KDKA-TV in Pittsburgh, WHP-TV in Harrisburg, and WNEP-TV in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton shows Hillary Clinton maintaining her double-digit lead over Barack Obama in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary for President.

Today, Clinton leads Obama by 14 points; down slightly from an 18-point lead one week ago.

Despite this movement, the polls have been consistent over time; in four polls, Clinton has never received less than 53% or more than 56% of the vote; Obama has never received less than 36% or more than 41%.

Full analysis, crosstabs, and access to tracking graphs are here.

SurveyUSA’s Pennsylvania media clients in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton will be releasing our latest Democratic primary results today, but in the meantime, here’s a look at some data we collected yesterday in the Harrisburg area, exclusively for WHP-TV, on the topic of Barack Obama’s “bitter” comments.

• 50% of those familiar with Obama’s words say they disagree with them; 43% agree.
  • Among Democrats, 51% agree.
  • Among Independents, 57% agree.
• 56% say they did not find the comments to be offensive; 40% say they did find them offensive.
  • 53% of conservatives say they were personally offended by the remarks; 52% of Republicans say they were not offended.
  • By nearly 2:1, Democrats say they did not find the remarks offensive.
• Potential fallout: 44% say the remarks will have no long-term impact on the Obama campaign; 42% say they will, in fact, have a negative impact.

Full results, crosstabs, and analysis are here.

SurveyUSA will release a poll in the Pennsylvania Primary tomorrow, Tuesday, 04/15/08. There is disagreement among pollsters in Pennsylvania. The variation is captured in this graphic created by Charles Franklin, U Wisconsin, and posted to the Pollster.com website.

If you click on the graphic, you will be taken to the Pollster.com website, for the complete context. Graphic does not (yet) include SurveyUSA datapoint from 04/15/08.

Within recent days, polls have shown Obama leading by 2, trailing by 20, or somewhere in between.

SurveyUSA is reminded of two recent elections in which More »

Tomorrow is tax day, and SurveyUSA took the opportunity to check and see how many of you were expecting to get some money back. Polling in fifteen states conducted this past weekend shows a fairly narrow band of responses, with between half and two-thirds receiving refunds, about 1 in 4 owing money, and with those breaking even numbering in the single digits.

Of the states surveyed, Californians are the least likely to be getting money back this year — only 51% there expect a refund. Wisconsin is at the other end of the spectrum, with 66% there looking for a check in the mail.

Wisconsin respondents are also the least likely to owe money — only 19% say they do — and those in Missouri and Minnesota are the most likely to say they owe money, with 26% in each of those two states telling us so. Results for all states polled can be found here.

44% of Kansas adults say they are currently in dept, according to a recent SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KWCH-TV in Wichita. In tracking dating back three years and displayed above, that number has never before been this high, and has spiked 12 points over just the past two months.

Other findings from the poll, full results of which are available here:

• 5% of Kansans with mortgages on their homes say they’re currently behind in their payments, up ever-so-slightly from 3% in February. Based on the 2006 US Census estimate of 495,047 owner-occupied homes in Kansas, that 5% figure represents nearly 25,000 Kansas homes.
• Fourteen months ago, 19% of Kansans described the national economy as being strong. That’s three times as many as feel that way today, when just 6% say the US economy is strong. 49% describe the economy as weak today, while 43% say it’s somewhere in-between.
• The Kansas economy is seen as being stronger than the national: 13% say the state’s economy is strong, more than twice the number saying that about the US economy; 27% say it is weak, significantly less than the 49% who describe the national economy that way.
• 83% of Kansas adults say they have cut back on their spending; 38% said they cut back “a lot,” and 45% say they have done so “a little.”  Only 16% say they have not cut back at all.

82% of Boston-area adults say former Red Sox first baseman Bill Buckner should be forgiven, according to an exclusive WBZ-TV News poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

11% say Buckner should not be forgiven, and presumably were not among the attendees at the Red Sox home opener Tuesday who gave Buckner a lengthy standing ovation as he threw out the first pitch. Also in this camp: WBZ’s own Jon Keller.

Overall, 69% said it was a good idea to have Buckner throw out the first pitch; 21% thought it was a bad idea.

In other Red Sox news,  while 30% of adults say they are “a little worried” about the team’s slow start, 61% say they aren’t worried at all. 7% — disproportionally older respondents — say they are worried “a lot” by it. (Boston, now with 4 wins and 4 losses, and in third place in the American League East,  had not yet played their home opener when the poll was conducted; Boston won the game, 5-0.)

Full results of the poll are here.

SurveyUSA estimates that at least 18 million Americans have now been “Rickrolled,” according to this latest national poll of 959 adults, conducted 04/08/08.

Understanding and explaining the phenomena can be difficult, although this article is helpful. Essentially, the most common usage is as follows:

Pranksters post links on various internet sites, in instant messages to friends, or in email that purport to direct to something of interest, but which instead link to a YouTube video of the 1987 hit by British singer Rick Astley. Originally a purely underground happening, Rickrolling has recently made significant inroads to the mainstream, possibly culminating with yesterday’s performance of the song during the 8th inning of the New York Mets home opener Tuesday afternoon.

Baseball fans may not have cared for the song, but we thought we’d take a look, for the record, at what may end up being the very peak of the fad, and find out how many people say they’ve been Rickrolled. Nationally, the number is 6% — and multiplied out by 300 million Americans, that means at least 18 million Americans have been on the receiving end of the prank. Note that this is likely an underestimation, as the poll was unable to include those under the age of 18. Full results are here.

Barack Obama is having better luck with North Carolina voters this week than he did with the North Carolina Tarheels, according to SurveyUSA’s latest Democratic primary tracking poll conducted exclusively for WTVD-TV in Raleigh.

If the presidential primary were held today, Obama would take 49% of the vote; Hillary Clinton would take 39%. That’s essentially unchanged from an identical poll conducted four weeks ago, when Obama led by 8, and from an identical poll conducted four weeks prior to that, when Obama again led by 10. See the tracking graphs here.

Little has changed month-to-month among most demographic subgroups:  Among men, over the past two months, Obama led by 18, by 13, and now by 15 points. Among women, Obama led by 2, by 3, and today by 6 points. Among whites, Clinton led by 19, by 17, and today by 22 points. Among blacks, Obama led by 65, by 61, and today by 75 points.

Geographically, Obama has gained ground in Raleigh, where he led by 8 points last month and by 18 points today. The contest remains effectively tied in Charlotte, with Clinton now sea-sawing past Obama, but still within sampling error. Obama retains the slightest lead in Southern and Coastal Carolina, where he led by 4 in February, by 8 in March, and by 11 today. Among voters under age 50, Obama’s lead has increased from 19 points last month to 29 points today. Among voters age 50+, Clinton advances slightly, from a 4-point lead last month to an 11-point lead today.

57% of Americans say they disagree with the International Olympic Committee’s decision to award the 2008 Summer Olympics to China, according to this nationwide poll conducted by SurveyUSA on behalf of its media clients across the country. 33% say they agree with the IOC’s choice.

Despite the nearly 2:1 disagreement with China hosting the games, just 1 in 5 say the United States should boycott the games by keeping its athletes home, as it did during the 1980 Summer Games in Moscow. 23% back a boycott; 69% say U.S. athletes should participate in the Olympics, which begin August 8.

When it comes to whether or not the President should attend the Olympic opening ceremony, however, respondents split; 47% say President George W. Bush should attend, and 46% say he should not. Seniors, minorities, and Democrats are somewhat more likely than others to say the President should stay away from the opening ceremonies; conservatives and Republicans are more likely to say the President should attend.

Fully crosstabbed results available here.