Trump Takes Lead in NC Amidst FBI Letter Controversy; Burr Leads Ross for Senate; Cooper and McCrory Neck-and-Neck for NC Governor

SurveyUSA Operations - 145 days ago

In an election for President of the United States held in North Carolina today, 11/1/2016, one week until votes are counted, Republican Donald Trump defeats Democrat Hillary Clinton by a 7-point margin, 51% to 44%, according to this latest exclusive WRAL-TV News Poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll conducted for WRAL-TV one month ago, Trump is up 7 points; Clinton is down 2.

Interviews for this research were conducted entirely after a letter from the FBI Director threw the election into chaos 10/28/16, at a time when America had learned additional emails related to the FBI probe into Clinton had been discovered, but not yet whether those emails had previously been reviewed by the agency or what content they contained. Significant volatility may exist in the coming week as more is learned.

Among men, Trump had led by 9 points one month ago, today leads by 23. Among women, Clinton had led by 12, today leads by 7. One month ago, Trump was backed by 87% of those identifying as (but not necessarily registered to vote as) Republicans; today, 95% of Republicans say they will vote for Trump. Among Democrats, 91% had said they were voting for Clinton; today, 92% say they will vote for her. Among those identifying as Independents, Trump had led by 5, today leads by 9.

Among rural men, a demographic crucial to the Trump campaign, Trump’s lead widens month-on-month from 26 points then to 44 points now. Among suburban women, critical to the Clinton campaign, Clinton’s lead falls, from 21 points last month to 15 points today. Clinton’s chances of capturing North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes may depend on whether or not she can re-capture these suburban voters; Trump’s path to 270 electoral votes may depend on the same.

Voting began on October 20 in North Carolina. Among the 40% of voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already cast their ballots, Clinton leads by 6 points; among the 60% of voters who have not yet voted but promise to do so, Trump leads by 16.

In the election for United States Senator from North Carolina, Republican incumbent Richard Burr today defeats Democrat Deborah Ross 49% to 43%. Compared to one month ago, Burr is up 3 points; Ross is down 1. Ross leads by 8 among women, but Burr leads by 21 among men — a 29-point gender gap, up from a 19-point gap last month. Ross runs even with Burr among the youngest voters, but trails by 14 points among seniors. Ross leads Burr in greater Greensboro and is even with him in the Raleigh area; elsewhere, Burr dominates.

The race for North Carolina Governor has tightened, and Democrat Roy Cooper today holds a nominal 1-point lead over incumbent Republican Pat McCrory, 48% to 47%. Compared to one month ago, Cooper is flat; McCrory is up 3. Cooper leads by 14 points among women; McCrory leads by 12 points among men. Cooper holds a 9-point lead among those who have voted early; McCrory leads by 4 among those who have not yet cast their ballots.

Further down-ballot, incumbent Republican Dan Forest at this hour leads Democrat Linda Coleman by 7 points, 49% to 42% in the Lieutenant Governor race; Democrat Josh Stein leads Republican Buck Newton 47% to 43% in the contest to replace Roy Cooper as Attorney General.

Context and Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of North Carolina adults 10/28/16 through 10/31/16, in interviewing conducted entirely after the release of a letter from FBI Director James Comey to members of Congress. Of the adults, 718 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 659 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to vote on or before 11/08/16 in the Presidential election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Republican Mitt Romney defeated Democrat Barack Obama by 2 points in 2012; Obama defeated Republican John McCain by less than 1 point in 2008. North Carolina has 15 electoral votes.

1 Week Till Votes are Counted, Trump on Auto-Pilot in Reliably Red Kansas; GOP Moran Coasts to US Senate Finish Line

SurveyUSA Operations - 145 days ago

In 3 SurveyUSA tracking polls conducted for KSN-TV in Wichita, Republican Donald Trump led by 12 points on 09/12/16, led by 11 points on 10/17/16, and leads by 11 points today, 10/31/16. 30% of the interviews for this survey were completed before the FBI threw the election into chaos 10/28/16. 70% of the interviews for this survey were completed after the FBI announcement. The pendulum may swing yet further before votes are counted, but in this freeze-frame of research results: Trump led by 9 points before the FBI announcement. Trump led by 12 points after the FBI announcement.

Clinton resentment has increased. The percentage of Trump supporters who are voting “against Clinton” has gone from 38% on 09/12/16 to 47% on 10/17/16 to 50% today. At the same time, it is important to note that among voters who have already returned a ballot, in Kansas as elsewhere, Clinton is outperforming Trump. Specifically, Clinton leads Trump 50% to 42% among early voters. This may be a reflection of Clinton’s more sophisticated get-out-the-vote operation, or it could be evidence that Trump voters are fast to talk-the-talk but not so fast to walk-the-walk. Trump leads Clinton by 15 points among voters who have notyet filled out a ballot but who promise to do so before polls close.

In the contest for United States Senator from Kansas, incumbent Republican Jerry Moran is well positioned at this hour for a second full term, 24 points ahead of Democratic challenger Patrick Wiesner. 2 weeks ago, Moran led Wiesner 56% to 31%, today, 55% to 31%. Libertarian Robert Garrard is at 6% today, up 1 point from 2 weeks ago. In rural Kansas, Moran leads by 43 points. Among seniors, Moran leads by 36 points. Among evangelical voters, Moran leads by 59 points.

When voters turn their attention to the Kansas state legislature, 38% say it would be best if Kansas elected more conservatives, 34% say it would be best if Kansas elected more moderates, 17% say it would be best if Kansas elected more liberals.

When voters are asked whether they will vote to retain the 5 state Supreme Court justices who are on the November ballot, 20% say they will vote to retain noneof the justices; 26% say they will vote to retain all of the justices; 15% say they will vote to retain one justice; the rest of voters will pick and choose.

Statewide Favorability Ratings:

Democratic President Barack Obama is viewed extremely favorably by 19% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 41%.
Trump is viewed extremely favorably by 13% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 39%.
Clinton is viewed extremely favorably by 10% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 53%.
Republican Governor Sam Brownback is viewed extremely favorably by 5% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 52%.
Republican Senator Pat Roberts is viewed extremely favorably by 9% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 17%.
Moran is viewed extremely favorably by 15% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 9%.

Context and Methodology:

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Kansas adults 10/26/16 through 10/30/16. 30% of the interviews for this survey were completed prior to the FBI announcement 10/28/16 that additional Clinton-related emails of possible consequence had been identified on a device not previously known to the FBI. Of the adults, 693 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 624 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot or to be likely to do so before polls close on 11/08/16. 2% of voters interviewed for this survey said they almost always vote in Presidential elections, but would not vote in 2016 because they did not like any of the candidates on the ballot. An offsetting 4% of voters said they almost never vote in Presidential elections but would vote in 2016 because they were drawn to one of this year’s candidates. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (60% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (40% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Kansas has 6 electoral votes in 2016. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried the state by 22 points as Obama won a 2nd term. In 2008, John McCain carried the state by 15 points as Obama won his 1st term. In 2004, George W Bush carried KS by 25 points over John Kerry on Bush’s way to a 2nd term. In 2000, Bush carried KS by 21 points. Early voting began 10/19/16.

In NY’s 19th Congressional District, Unclear if Democrat Teachout Can Maintain Narrow Advantage Given Buffeting At Top of Ticket

SurveyUSA Operations - 145 days ago

7 days till votes are counted in the high-profile contest to fill the open seat in New York’s 19th Congressional District, either Democrat Zephyr Teachout or Republican John Faso may emerge victorious, with chaos in the Presidential contest and closeness in the polling data presented here combining to make the outcome uncertain, according to SurveyUSA research conducted exclusively for WNYT-TV in Albany. The seat in the U.S. House of Representatives may be pivotal in determining which political party controls the U.S. House of Representatives in the next (115th) Congress.

At this hour, it’s Democrat Teachout 45%, Republican Faso 42%, with 13% of likely voters undecided. Here is why those numbers should be interpreted cautiously: 14% of the interviews for this survey were completed before the FBI announcement 10/28/16 that it had discovered State Department emails on a previously unknown electronic device. In SurveyUSA interviews completed before the FBI announcement, Clinton led Republican Donald Trump in New York’s 19th by 5 points, 47% to 42%. In interviews completed after the FBI announcement, Trump led Clinton by 3 points, 45% to 42%.

Lots of turbulence. Seat belts on.

If Teachout wins, it will be because of young voters, where she leads by 13 points, because of women, where she leads by 12, and because of lower-income voters, where she leads by 9. Voters who say health care is most important in their vote for Congress back Teachout by 24 points. Voters who say the environment is most important in their vote for Congress back Teachout 18:1.

If Faso wins, it will be because of high-school educated voters, where he leads by 32 points, and because of men, where he leads by 7. Voters who say corruption is most important in their vote for Congress, and voters who say that national security is most important in their vote for Congress, back Faso 2:1.

77% of those who vote for Trump at the top of the ticket back Faso down-ballot.
83% of those who vote for Clinton at the top of the ticket back Teachout down-ballot.
Teachout leads by 11 points among both moderates and independents.
For Teachout to seize the seat, she must prevent defections among these 2 groups in the campaign’s final week.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 675 registered voters from NY-19 10/27/16 through 10/30/16, using Registration Based Sample (aka: voter-list sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 598 as likely to vote before polls close on 11/08/16. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (aka: the cell-phone respondents, 26% of likely voters) were contacted by live interviewers, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent’s cooperation, ensured the respondent’s safety, asked the questions, noted the answers, and remained on the phone until the interview had concluded. NY’s 19th Congressional District is a U-shape that wraps around Albany, extends to the Pennsylvania border and nearly to the New Jersey border on the bottom of the U, and includes most of the Catskill mountains. Incumbent Republican Chris Gibson, who won the district by 22 points in 2014, is not seeking re-election. Millions of dollars in outside money has poured into the district, in an attempt by the Republicans to hold this seat, and in an attempt by the Democrats to flip this seat.

With Presidential Finish Line in Sight, Early California Voters Limit Impact of FBI Investigation on Clinton Lead; Harris Safely Atop Sanchez in Fight for Boxer’s Seat; Prop 64 Likely to Pass, Legalizing Recreational Marijuana

SurveyUSA Operations - 145 days ago

In California, 7 days till votes are counted, Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by 29 points among early voters but leads by just 17 points among voters who have not yet returned a ballot, according to SurveyUSA’s final pre-election tracking poll conducted for KABC-TV in Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. This is an indication of what the fallout may be from the FBI’s newly announced interest in Anthony Weiner’s computer.

In 3 previous tracking polls, Clinton in California had led by 25 points, 26 points and 26 points; today, by 21. Two weeks ago, Clinton had led by 25 points among independent voters, now by just 9. The political seas are choppy; unclear how much water the Clinton ship will take-on in more competitive states.

In an election today for United States Senator from CA, to replace retiring Democrat Barbara Boxer, Democrat Kamala Harris defeats Democrat Loretta Sanchez, 47% to 27%. Harris’s 20-point advantage is effectively unchanged from her 21-point advantage 2 weeks ago.

Ballot Measures:

Proposition 56, which would increase the tax on cigarettes to $2 per pack, is favored to pass 60% to 33%.
Proposition 62, which would end the death penalty in CA and replace it with life in prison, trails by 11 points today, 39% in favor, 50% against.
Proposition 63, which outlaws large-capacity magazines and requires background checks on ammo purchases, leads 2:1 and will pass.
Proposition 64, which would legalize, regulate, and tax recreational marijuana, is backed 54% to 39%, and now appears positioned to become law.

Statewide Favorability Ratings: 

President Barack Obama is viewed extremely favorably by 38% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 26%.
Trump is viewed extremely favorably by 12% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 52%.
Clinton is viewed extremely favorably by 22% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 33%.
Governor Jerry Brown is viewed extremely favorably by 15% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 20%.
Dianne Feinstein is viewed extremely favorably by 17% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 20%.
Boxer is viewed extremely favorably by 17% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 23%.

Context and Methodology: 

SurveyUSA interviewed 900 state of California adults 10/28/16 through 10/31/16. All interviews were completed after FBI director James Comey announced 10/28/16 new interest in emails on a previously unknown electronic device. Of the adults interviewed, 816 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 747 were judged by SurveyUSA to have already voted in the Presidential election or as certain to do so before polls close on 11/08/16. Of registered voters, 2% tell SurveyUSA they almost always vote in a Presidential election but will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates. 5% of voters tell SurveyUSA they almost never vote in Presidential elections but will vote in 2016 because they are particularly drawn to one of the candidates. The survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (56% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (44% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the screen of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In Georgia, Clinton Unable to Seal the Deal, Trails Trump by 7 With 11 Days to Go

SurveyUSA Operations - 146 days ago

Democrats have high hopes for Georgia’s 16 electoral votes, but Hillary Clinton falls short in an election today, 10/28/16, according to SurveyUSA polling for WXIA-TV, the Tegna station in Atlanta.

Republican Donald Trump is at 49%, Clinton at 42%, and Libertarian Gary Johnson at 3% at this hour. Among voters who have already returned a ballot, Trump leads by 6. Among voters who have not yet returned a ballot but who promise to vote before polls close on 11/08/16, Trump leads Clinton by 8. When the 2 groups are combined, Trump leads by 7, up from a 4-point Trump lead when SurveyUSA last polled Georgia for WXIA in August.

Trump leads by 58 points among rural men, by 56 points among voters focused on immigration, by 46 points among evangelical voters, by 44 points among whites, by 37 points among rural women, by 28 points among seniors, by 26 points in Northwest GA (which includes Dalton, Rome and 53 counties to the North and West of Greater Atlanta), by 26 points among college-educated whites, by 22 points among middle-income voters and by 18 points among high-school educated men.

Clinton holds 93% of the Democratic base and leads among moderates by 17 points. Although she does have a 21-point edge among just suburban women, when all women statewide are compiled, Clinton leads by just 4 points, not enough to overcome Trump’s 21-point advantage among men statewide.

52% of Trump backers are voting “for Trump,” 46% are voting “against Clinton,” a material change from August.
63% of Clinton backers are voting “for Clinton,” 33% are voting “against Trump,” a slight change from August.
58% of Trump backers are enthusiastic about their candidates, compared to 67% of Clinton backers.
40% of Trump backers have reservations about their candidate, compared to 30% of Clinton backers.

62% of voters (87% of Republicans, 28% of Democrats) say Clinton’s leaked emails are important in 2016.
47% of voters (14% of Republicans, 88% of Democrats) say Trump’s income taxes are important in 2016.
46% of voters (15% of Republican, 85% of Democrats) say Trump’s history with women is important in 2016.
43% of voters (22% of Republicans, 73% of Democrats) say Trump talk about not accepting an election outcome is important.
27% of voters (42% of Republicans, 12% of Democrats) say Bill Clinton’s history with women is important in 2016.

 

Favorability Ratings: 

President Barack Obama is viewed extremely favorably by 27% of GA voters, extremely unfavorably by 36%.
Trump is viewed extremely favorably by 17% of GA voters, extremely unfavorably by 38%.
Clinton is viewed extremely favorably by 14% of GA voters, extremely unfavorably by 47%.

Respondent Filtering / Historical Context: 

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of GA adults 10/25/16 through 10/27/16. Of the adults interviewed, 683 were registered to vote in Georgia. Of the registered voters, 5% say they “almost always” vote in Presidential elections but will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates on the ballot. An offsetting 5% say they “almost never” vote in Presidential elections but will vote in 2016 because they are uniquely drawn to one of the candidates. These so-called “new” voters split; they do not disproportionately favor Trump. Of the registered voters, 593 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot or to be likely to do so before polls close on 11/08/16.

This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (64% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (36% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Georgia last voted for a Democrat for President in 1992, when Bill Clinton captured the state’s then 13 electoral votes by 1 percentage point over George H. W. Bush. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried Georgia by 8 points. In 2008, John McCain carried Georgia by 7 points. George W. Bush carried Georgia by 17 points in 2004 and by 12 points in 2000.

Out of Time, Trump Fails to Make Inroads in Minnesota Against Clinton, Who Now Leads By 10 With 12 Days Left

SurveyUSA Operations - 149 days ago

Democrat Hillary Clinton, who led Republican Donald Trump by 7 points in Minnesota a month ago, today leads Trump by 10 points, with the finish line in sight, according to SurveyUSA polling for KSTP-TV in in the Twin Cities.

At this hour, it’s Clinton 49%, Trump 39%, Libertarian Gary Johnson 5%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 2%. 11% of likely voters tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, and among those “early” voters, Clinton leads by 48 points, 71% to 23%. Sometimes early voters are a measure of enthusiasm for a candidate and other times early voters are a indicator of one campaign’s better-organized get-out-the-vote effort — the so-called “ground game.” Among voters who have not returned a ballot but who promise to do so before polls close 11/08/16, Trump trails by 5 points, 46% to 41%. To overcome Clinton’s stockpiled advantage and capture The Land of 10,000 Lakes’ 10 electoral votes, Trump would need to win “late” voters by 8 points.

If Johnson, Stein and all other minor-party candidates are scraped off the ballot and only Trump and Clinton remain, Clinton defeats Trump by 11 points in a head-to-head slugfest today, 53% to 42%.

Enthusiasm for both Trump and Clinton remains tepid: just 49% of Trump voters are voting “for Trump,” 48% are voting “against Clinton.” 58% of Clinton backers are “for Clinton,” 40% are “against Trump.” These numbers are largely unchanged month-on-month. 50% of Trump voters are enthusiastic, 47% have reservations. 54% of Clinton voters are enthusiastic, 45% have reservations.

One month ago, Trump led among independent men by 20 points, now that group is tied.
One month ago, Trump led among all independents by 6, now trails by 5.
One month ago, Clinton led among women by 15 points, now by 20.
One month ago, Trump led among voters with a high-school education by 6 points, now by 1.
One month ago, Trump led among Generation X by 8, now trails by 13. X marks the spot.

85% of Republicans but just 24% of Democrats say leaked emails from the Clinton campaign are important to this year’s election.
94% of Democrats but just 16% of Republicans say Trump’s history with women is important to this year’s Presidential election.
48% of Republicans but just 5% of Democrats say Bill Clinton’s history with women is important to this year’s Presidential election.

Approval Ratings:

President Barack Obama has a Plus 6 Net Job Approval Rating in MN: 50% of voters approve of the job Obama is doing; 44% disapprove.
Governor Mark Dayton has a Plus 8 Net Job Approval Rating in MN: 49% of voters approve of the job Dayton is doing; 41% disapprove.
U.S. Senator Al Franken has a Plus 21 Net Job Approval Rating in MN: 54% of voters approve of the job Franken is doing; 33% disapprove.
U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar has a striking Plus 33 Net Job Approval Rating: 59% of voters approve of the job Klobuchar is doing; 26% disapprove.
24% statewide approve of the job the Minnesota legislature is doing, 56% disapprove.

Filtering and Context: 

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Minnesota adults 10/22/16 through 10/26/16. Of the adults, 733 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 656 had either already returned a ballot or were judged by SurveyUSA to be likely to do so before polls close on 11/08/16. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (67% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (33% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. 3% of registered voters today tell SurveyUSA that they almost always vote in a Presidential election but will not this year, because they do not like the candidates on the ballot, down from 6% a month ago. 2% of registered voters tell SurveyUSA they almost never vote in a Presidential election but will this year because they are particularly drawn to one of the candidates. Minnesota last voted for a Republican for President in 1972, when Richard Nixon carried 49 states. In 2012, Obama defeated Mitt Romney in Minnesota by 8 points. In 2008, Obama defeated John McCain in Minnesota by 10 points. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry defeated George W. Bush by 3 points in Bush’s attempt for a 2nd term. In 2000, Democrat Al Gore defeated Bush by 2 points in Bush’s bid for a 1st term.

In San Jose CA, Complicated Measure F, Sequel to Measure B, Appears To Have Enough Support to Pass

SurveyUSA Operations - 150 days ago

Measure F, a compromise designed to end fighting between San Jose City Hall and the labor unions that represent city of San Jose employees, has a broad coalition of support and may become law when votes are counted in 11 days, according to a SurveyUSA poll commissioned by KPIX-TV, the CBS-owned station in the Bay Area. But that is far from certain.

Today, “Yes” leads “No” 39% to 16%. The problem? 46% of likely voters are not yet certain whether they will support or oppose F. The measure is not yet on voters’ radar, even though early voting is underway.

Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Yes leads No by 49 points.

F is backed by both Democrats and Republicans, though liberals are much more likely to support the measure than are conservatives. F is favored by whites and non-whites, by rich and poor, by the better educated and by the less-well educated.

Measure F is a compromise that attempts to preserve the essence of San Jose Measure B, which city voters approved in 2012 but which was tied up in litigation until it eventually was re-drafted this year as Measure F. Among those who voted Yes on B in 2012, 62% back F today.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 city of San Jose adults 10/24/16 through 10/26/16. Of the adults, 704 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 618 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to do so before polls close on 11/08/16. The survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (69% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (31% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Polling ballot measures and citizen initiatives is an inexact science. In general, having nothing to do with San Jose specifically and having nothing to do with 2016 uniquely, opposition to a ballot measure increases as Election Day approaches. Rarely does support for a ballot measure increase over time. Measure F must compete for voter brain space with the Presidential Election, the U.S. Senate election in California and dozens of statewide ballot measures.

In Florida, Could Rising Clinton Tide Sink Rubio? Marco Maintains Slight Edge At The Moment, 2 Weeks Until Votes Are Counted

SurveyUSA Operations - 151 days ago

The hold-your-breath state of Florida has high-profile contests for President and U.S. Senate that could go either way when votes are counted in 14 days, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for Bay News 9 in Tampa and News 13 in Orlando.

Democrat Hillary Clinton has a narrow, 48% to 45% advantage over Republican Donald Trump, with 6% of voters saying they will vote for minor-party candidates.

Clinton leads 2:1 among the youngest voters. If the youngest voters show up — and that is a significant “if” — Clinton carries the state’s critical 29 electoral votes. Trump leads by 11 points among the state’s seniors, and they will show up. The older the electorate, the better Trump will perform. Clinton leads among women, but not by much: 6 points. Much more worrisome for Trump is that he does not lead among men; Clinton edges him by a nominal 1 point, 47% to 46%. And, putting a finer point on it, Trump does not lead among high-school educated men, a group he must carry; Clinton edges him there by 4 points, 49% to 45%. Among “very conservative” men, Clinton siphons 1 out of 6 voters, from a group where Trump cannot afford to lose a single vote.

Trump leads among the state’s white voters, 50% to 42%. Clinton leads overwhelmingly, as expected, among the state’s African American voters. Cubans break for Trump, 49% to 44%. Non-Cuban Hispanics back Clinton, 56% to 37%. Asians prefer Clinton by 14 points.

4 in 10 voters say the economy is the most important issue in 2016, and among those voters, Clinton leads 5:4. Trump leads by 49 points among voters focused on immigration, but only 1 in 8 voters say immigration is the most important issue. Trump leads by 47 points among Evangelicals, by 24 points among gun owners, by 7 points in military households. Clinton leads by 26 points in Southeast Florida, which is enough to offset Trump’s advantage in Northwest FL (Trump up 20), Central FL (Trump up 7), and Southwest FL (Trump up 4). The candidates are tied in Northeast FL.

Whatever stink there is on either candidate offsets: Among Trump supporters, two-thirds are voting “for Trump,” one-third are voting “against Clinton.” Among Clinton supporters, two-thirds are voting “for Clinton,” one-third are voting “against Trump.” 24% of Trump voters have reservations about Trump. 29% of Clinton supporters have reservations about Clinton.

Incumbent Republican Marco Rubio is running 4 point ahead of Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy in the high-profile contest for U.S. Senator, 45% to 41%. Rubio leads 2:1 among Cubans, but by 5 points among non-Cuban Hispanics. 8 in 10 Rubio voters are also Trump voters, and should Trump’s support collapse in the campaign’s final days, Rubio could be caught in the undertow. And, if the Clinton get-out-the-vote operation produces bonus Democrats and friendly Independents beyond what is anticipated here, Murphy may outperform these numbers.

Rubio can take comfort in his 13-point lead among seniors, but the youngest voters back Murphy. The contest may well be decided by Baby Boomers, who today back Rubio by 2 points, 45% to 43%. Murphy leads by 20 points in Southeast Florida, but Rubio leads everywhere else. To upset Rubio, Murphy must gain late ground among independent men, where he trails by 5, and independent women, where he trails by 11.

Context and Methodology: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,400 state of Florida adults 10/20/16 through 10/24/16. Of the adults, 1,314 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 1,251 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 election. Just 1% of voters interviewed for this survey say they “almost always” vote in Presidential elections, but will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates on the ballot. 5% of voters say they “almost never” vote in Presidential elections but will vote in 2016 because they were drawn to one of this year’s candidates. Importantly: these “new” voters are spread across the political spectrum; they are not disproportionately Trump supporters. All of the interviews for this survey were conducted after the 3rd Presidential debate and at a time when Trump described himself as “unshackled.” This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (65% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (35% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. No state has a higher profile and no state is more fiercely contested than Florida in a Presidential election. Obama carried the state by less than 1 percentage point in 2012 and by 3 percentage points in 2008. Republican George W Bush carried the state by 5 points in 2004 and by a handful of votes in 2000. More than 1 million early ballots have already been returned out of an expected 8.5 million ballots to be counted on Election Day.

Presidential Debates Have Left Some Voters in Southern MN / Northern IA Confused; Few Have Switched From One Candidate to the Other

SurveyUSA Operations - 152 days ago

Just a handful of area residents have changed their minds as a result of watching the first two Presidential debates, a new KAAL-TV poll reveals. Only 2% from Southern MN / Northern IA have switched from Trump to Clinton. An equally tiny but offsetting 3% have switched from Clinton to Trump. A larger number, 12%, say the debates have made them more confused than ever.

When all likely voters who watched one or both debates are examined, Clinton and Trump are effectively even, 41% for Clinton and 40% for Trump, well within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error.

52% of area voters say that Donald Trump is not fit to be President.

50% of area voters say Hillary Clinton is not fit to be President.

Clinton voters are 16 times more likely than Trump voters to say a candidate’s temperament is most important when deciding who to vote for.

35% of likely voters (disproportionately Democrats) say that if their state legislator backed Trump, they would be less likely to vote for that representative.

35% of likely voters (disproportionately Republicans) say that if their state legislator backed Clinton, they would be less likely to vote for that representative.

About: 750 adults from across the viewing area were interviewed 10/17/16 through 10/18/16. Of the adults, 653 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 620 were judged to be likely to vote before polls close on 11/08/16. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephone (83% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (17% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet, or other electronic device.

In Re-Match in Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, Incumbent Democrat Nolan an Underdog, 19 Days to Go

SurveyUSA Operations - 154 days ago

Incumbent Democrat Rick Nolan will need to come from behind to hold onto his seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities. Democrats expect to pick-up House seats in the 2016 general election, but this has the potential to be a District that flips from Blue to Red.

Republican challenger Stuart Mills, who lost to Nolan by 3,700 votes in 2014, today narrowly edges Nolan, 45% to 41%, with 14% of likely voters still on the fence and able to swing the contest one way or the other. Either candidate may emerge.

Mills leads among voters younger than 64. Nolan leads only among seniors age 65+. Mills has a 10-point advantage among men, which Nolan cannot overcome with his 3-point advantage among women. 84% of Republicans vote for the Republican; 89% of Democrats vote for the Democrat. But independent voters — critical to both candidates — break for Mills at this hour, 45% to 35%, enough to make him the favorite.

Among voters who say that health care is the most important issue in the campaign, Nolan leads by 17 points. Among voters focused on terrorism, Mills leads 3:1. Among voters focused on taxes, Mills leads 2:1.

High-school educated voters vote overwhelmingly Republican; Nolan leads narrowly among those with a 4-year college degree.

Republican Donald Trump carries the district 47% to 35% over Hillary Clinton at this hour. Of those voting for Trump, 81% also vote for Mills. Of those voting for Clinton, 87% also vote for Nolan.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 registered voters from Minnesota’s 8th U.S. Congressional District 10/16/16 through 10/19/16, using registration based sample (RBS, also-known-as: voter-list sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 595 likely to vote before polls close on 11/08/16. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (70% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (aka: the cell-phone respondents) were called on their cell-phones by live interviewers, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent’s cooperation, ensured the respondent’s safety, asked the respondent the survey questions, entered the respondent’s answers, and remained on the line until the conclusion of the interview. MN-08 is a vast expanse of real estate stretching north from St Paul, over the top of Lake Superior, to the Canadian border, and as far west as Hubbard and Wadena Counties. Duluth is one of several population centers.

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