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Kansas Turns Its Back on GOP Senator Roberts: Independent Orman Has Legitimate Chance to Pull Off Upset, 4 Weeks Till Votes Are Counted

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 17 days ago

Kansas officials and Kansas courts having at last determined what the ballot will look like in the 11/04/14 general election, Kansas voters say “no” to a 4th term in the US Senate for incumbent Republican Pat Roberts, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for KSN-TV in Wichita. Today, 4 weeks until votes are counted, it’s unknown independent Greg Orman 47%, Roberts 42%. The national implications of the Kansas Senate race, and which party will control the US Senate in the next Congress, overshadow what in any other year would be a much more high-profile possible upset, and that’s the fight for Governor of Kansas.

In the Senate contest, KSN-TV’s most recent poll was 30 days ago, in the middle of turmoil: just after Secretary of State Kris Kobach ruled that Democrat Chad Taylor could not take his name off the ballot. Back then, while offering respondents a chance to still vote for the withdrawn Taylor, SurveyUSA found Orman 1 point ahead of Roberts, 37% to 36%, with Taylor at 10%. Today, without Taylor on the ballot, Orman is up 10 points, Roberts is up 6 points. Then, Libertarian Randall Batson got 6% of the vote, today 4%.

Here’s how the political parties line up today: Roberts holds just 66% of the Republican base. Orman, who declines to say whether he would caucus with Democrats or Republicans if elected, draws support from 71% of Democrats, 61% of independents, and 27% of Republicans. Orman is backed by 17% of conservatives, 64% of moderates and 69% of liberals. Whether the 17% of conservatives who today tell SurveyUSA they will vote for Orman stay home on Election Day, or do something else on Election Day, may well determine the outcome of the contest.

Voters say that jobs are the most important issue in the Senate contest, and on that issue, Orman leads Roberts by more than 2:1. A smaller number of voters think that Obamacare is the most important issue in the Senate rate, and on that issue, Roberts leads Orman by 2:1. In greater Wichita, Roberts leads Orman by 17 points. In greater Topeka, Orman leads Roberts by 20 points. And in greater Kansas City KS, Orman leads Roberts by 22 points. Roberts leads narrowly among less affluent Kansans. Orman leads decisively among more affluent Kansans.

In the contest for Governor of Kansas, the Democratic challenger ticket of Paul Davis and Jill Docking leads the incumbent Republican ticket of Sam Brownback and Jeff Colyer 47% to 42%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll one month ago, Brownback is up 2 points, Davis is flat. Brownback holds 66% of the Republican base (just as does Roberts). 27% of Democrats cross-over and vote Republican in the Governor’s race (just as 27% of Democrats do in the Senate race).

Brownback today leads in greater Wichita by 13 points, but trails in greater Kansas City KS by 17 points and trails in greater Topeka by 23 points. Voters tell SurveyUSA that education is the most important issue in the Governor race, and voters focused on education give Davis/Docking an eye-popping 50-point advantage on that issue. Voters who say that tax rates are most important give Brownback/Colyer at 31-point advantage on that issue. The Democratic ticket’s entire lead comes from women. The contest is tied among men. If Brownback survives on election day, it will be because men, down the stretch, rally to his side.

KSN-TV’s last look at the Secretary of State contest occurred during the 3 days immediately after incumbent Republican Kris Kobach inserted himself into the Senate fray. Then, SurveyUSA found Democratic challenger Jean Schodorf 3 points ahead of Kobach, 46% to 43%. Today, the contest has sea-sawed back to the Republican 48% to 43%. Schodorf is by no means out of contention; the contest could be the one on the ballot decided by the fewest votes.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 775 state of KS adults 10/02/14 through 10/05/14. Of the adults, 679 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 549 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before 11/04/14. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. You must credit KSN-TV if you air, cite, or publish these results in whole or part.

In NV, One Month To 2014 General Elex, Ballot Question 3 Could Go Either Way; Fierce Fight in Contests for Sec’y of State & Atty General

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 21 days ago

A month until votes are counted in the Nevada 2014 general election, Ballot Question 3, which would impose a 2% margin tax on certain businesses, is backed by Democrats and opposed by Republicans, with Independents playing a decisive role, according to research conducted by SurveyUSA for the Las Vegas Review Journal.

Today, “No” leads “Yes” 40% to 37%. This is well within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error, and especially so given that 23% of likely voters tell SurveyUSA they are not certain how they will vote on Ballot Question 3. Republicans oppose Q3 by 30 points. Democrats support Q3 by 34 points. Independents are the determining factor, and they oppose Q3 by 30 points. Lower-income voters support Q3. Upper-income voters oppose Q3. Men oppose. Women split. If “Yes” wins, it will be because traditional Democratic constituencies are under-counted in this survey. Opposition to ballot measures — having nothing to do with Nevada and nothing in particular to do with Question 3 — typically increases as Election Day approaches. Q3 supporters have their work cut out.

In the contest for the open seat of Secretary of State, Republican Barbara Cegavske and Democrat Kate Marshall are effectively even today, 43% for Cegavske, 42% for Marshall. Cegavske’s nominal 1-point advantage may or may not be statistically significant; the contest should be reported as a tie. The candidates truly are battling for each last vote: neither candidate reaches 50% among males, females, the young, the old, whites, blacks, Hispanics, independents or moderates. 5% of voters tell SurveyUSA they will choose “None of these candidates in the contest.” 10% more are undecided in the race. Either candidate could win, and a close finish would not be an upset regardless of the top vote getter.

In the contest for the open seat of Attorney General of Nevada, Democrat Ross Miller has a razor-thin 5 point advantage over Republican Adam Laxalt, 44% to 39%. Here, 7% of voters choose Independent American Party candidate Jonathan J. Hansen, who seriously confounds any calculus of the contest. If Miller wins, it will be thanks to moderate voters: he leads among self-described moderates by 17 points. If Laxalt overtakes, it may be because of a Republican “wave” that some foresee coast-to-coast in 2014.

In the contest for for the open seat of Lieutenant Governor of Nevada, Republican Mark Hutchison today defeats Democrat Lucy Flores 47% to 35%. Independent American candidate Mark Little gets 6% of the vote. 3% of likely voters tell SurveyUSA they will vote for “None of these candidates.” Hutchison leads by 19 points among men. Twice as many Democrats cross-over and vote Republican as do Republicans who cross-over and vote Democratic. Moderates break for the Republican, a bad sign for any Democrat.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 875 state of Nevada adults 09/29/14 through 10/01/14. Of the adults, 753 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 569 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before 11/04/14. Early voting begins 10/18/14. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

Now What? In Survey Conducted During Jewish New Year Holy Week, Crist 6 Points Atop Scott, With The Expected Caveats

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 24 days ago

Any outcome is possible in the 2014 Florida Governor’s contest, as this week’s tracking survey from WFLA-TV illustrates. Today, it’s Democrat Charlie Crist 46%, Republican Rick Scott 40%. The research, by SurveyUSA, was conducted during a holy week for Jewish residents, which altered school schedules in some parts of the state and resulted in others taking long weekends away from home. This may correlate with the 7-point swing to the Democrat that SurveyUSA finds from its poll last week, which showed Scott 1 point ahead of Crist.

Today’s release shows Libertarian Adrian Wyllie polling at 8%, taking slightly more votes from Scott than from Crist. Wyllie’s support has doubled in the past 6 weeks. 6% of likely voters today have not made up their mind. The week-on-week volatility is typified in support among women, which breaks sharply Democratic in the past 7 days, and in Southeast Florida, where Crist reaches 52% support this week, his highest level since SurveyUSA added Wyllie to WFLA-TV’s tracking poll in Mid-August, and a dramatic improvement compared to 2 weeks ago when Crist polled at 41% in SE FL.

The volatility and abnormal pattern of who is home and who is not home will continue next week, when normal SurveyUSA polling operations are confounded by Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement. Some schools will close, and some may use the long weekend to travel, and be away from their home telephones, altering for yet another week the pattern of who is and who is not reachable by pollsters.

Support for Amendment 2, which would legalize medical marijuana, ever, ever-so-slightly declines, from 56% mid-month to 53% last week to 52% today. Opposition to Amendment 2 creeps imperceptibly up, from 31% to 32% to today 33%. If the 14% of likely voters who tell SurveyUSA they are undecided on Amendment 2 do not vote, the measure, which requires 60% passage to become law, fails by a handful of votes.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 750 state of Florida adults Saturday 09/26/14 through Monday 09/29/14. (Interviews were conducted after the religious observance of Rosh Hashanah ended at sundown on Friday 09/26/14). Of the adults interviewed, 673 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 584 respondents were likely to vote on or before the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (76% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (24% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. You must credit WFLA-TV, of Tampa FL, if you air, cite, or publish these results in whole or part.

By 2:1, Nation’s Capital Does Not Want Washington DC NFL Football Team to Change Its Name

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 28 days ago

65% of adults from greater Washington DC do not want the professional football team, the ‘Redskins,’ to change its name, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WUSA-TV. 31% do want the NFL team to change its name. At least 60% of men and women, young and old, want the team name left as it is.

Football fans are more likely to want the name left as it is. Non-football fans are more likely to want the name changed.

Republicans, conservatives and whites are more likely to want the team name left alone. Democrats, liberals and African Americans are more likely to want the team name changed. But even among Democrats, liberals and African Americans, a majority want to leave the Redskins nickname alone.

By 3:1, area residents say that sports announcers should continue to use the name ‘Redskins’ when they are talking about the team: 72% say sports announcers should call the team by its name; 21% say sports announcers should not.

24% in the nation’s capital say that the term ‘Redskins’ is always offensive, no matter the context in which it is used. 29% say that the term is offensive only in certain contexts. 46%, a plurality, say the term is not offensive. 60% of adults say that the National Football League should respect the wishes of a majority of fans in making any rulings about team names.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 600 Washington DC area adults 09/19/14 through 09/22/14. The research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (62%), were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (38%), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Of the 600 adults interviewed, 53% say they are fans of the DC football team, 28% say they are fans of another NFL team, and 19% are not football fans. You must credit WUSA-TV of Washington DC if you air, publish or cite these results in whole or part.

In Oregon, Much Suspense Over Legal Marijuana, Little Suspense Over Governor and Senate Contests, Where Democrats Are Well Positioned

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 29 days ago

By the narrowest and most unreliable of margins, Oregonians today back legalizing recreational marijuana, 44% to 40%, according to the latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV in Portland. The ballot initiative, known as Measure 91, has a majority of support only among the youngest voters, age 18 to 34, who often are the least likely to turn out in a mid-term election.

Among seniors, Measure 91 is opposed by 28 points. The more seniors who vote, the less likely 91 will pass. Voters age 50 to 64 support legalization by 13 points, but 19 percent in that age group are undecided. Voters age 35 to 49 support by 11 points. The younger the electorate, the more likely 91 will pass.

Legalization is backed by 66% of liberals, 55% of Democrats, 54% of independents, 44% of moderates. By contrast, legalization is opposed by 72% of conservatives and 67% of Republicans. Measure 91 runs exactly even in greater Portland, 42% in favor, 42% opposed. If the measure passes, it will be from support in the rest of Oregon, where 91 leads 47% to 38% … but with 16% of voters on the fence. Opposition to ballot measures, having nothing to do with Oregon and having nothing to do with marijuana in particular, typically increases as election day approaches. This measure could go either way, depending how the forces aligned in support and in opposition marshal themselves in the three weeks before mail-in voting begins.

In the contest for Governor of Oregon, KATU-TV’s 3rd tracking poll finds striking stability. Today, incumbent Democrat John Kitzhaber leads Republican challenger Denise Richardson by 12 points. In August, 7 weeks ago, SurveyUSA also found Kitzhaber up by 12 points. In June, 12 weeks ago, SurveyUSA found Kitzhaber 13 points ahead.

In the contest for United States Senator from Oregon, KATU-TV’s 3rd tracking poll also finds striking stability. Today, incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley leads Republican challenger Monica Wehby by 20 points, 52% to 32%. In August, 7 weeks ago, SurveyUSA found Merkley up by 19 points. In June, 12 weeks ago, SurveyUSA found Merkley up by 18 points.

Ballot Measure 92, which would require genetically engineered food to be labeled as such, leads by 32 points today, and is expected to pass.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 750 adults from the state of Oregon 09/22/14 through 09/24/14. Of the adults, 678 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 568 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. You must credit KATU-TV if you air, cite, or publish these results in whole or part.

6 Weeks to the 11/04/14 General Election, Georgia Democrats Won’t Roll Over, Refuse to Play Dead

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 30 days ago

White-hot races for both Governor of Georgia and US Senator from Georgia highlight this week’s exclusive WXIA-TV 11Alive News Poll, conducted by SurveyUSA. In the fierce fight for the open Senate Seat being vacated by Republican Saxby Chambliss, Republican David Perdue and Democrat Michelle Nunn run effectively even today, Perdue at 46%, Nunn at 45%. In the contest for Governor of Georgia, incumbent Republican Nathan Deal is deadlocked with Democrat Jason Carter, Carter 45%, Deal 44%. Third-party candidates in both contests take just enough of the vote that, in a close general-election finish, the winner may need to also win a 12/04/14 runoff, rather than being elected outright in the 11/04/14 general election.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, Perdue is down a point, Nunn is up a point. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, Carter is up a point, Deal is down a point. Both contests are within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. Neither lead is statistically significant; both contests should be reported as a tie.

In the contest for School Superintendent, Republican Richard Woods had led Democrat Valerie Wilson by 12 points 6 weeks ago, by 4 points 2 weeks ago, but leads by just 2 points today, Woods 46%, Wilson 44%.
In the contest for Secretary of State, Republican Brian Kemp once led Democrat Doreen Carter by 17 points — today by 2 points. Carter has made substantial inroads among women, where she had trailed by 9 and now leads by 5.
In the contest for Lieutenant Governor, Republican Casey Cagle had led Democrat Connie Stokes by 16 points, but today leads by 4 points.
In the contest for Attorney General of Georgia, Republican Sam Olens today leads by 7 points, largely unchanged from 2 weeks ago.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this WXIA-TV research: SurveyUSA interviewed 825 state of GA adults 09/19/14 through 09/22/14. Of the adults, 721 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 550 as being likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. In GA, for statewide office, a winning candidate must reach 50% of the vote to avoid a 12/04/14 runoff. You must credit WXIA-TV, the Gannett-owned station in Atlanta, also known as 11Alive, if you re-broadcast, cite, or publish these results in whole or part.

In Florida Governor’s Race, Is This The Week That Republican Scott Puts Dagger into Democrat Crist’s Still-Beating Heart? Nope.

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 30 days ago

Incumbent Republican Governor Rick Scott and Democratic Challenger Charlie Crist are effectively even, 6 weeks until votes are counted, according to the latest WFLA-TV tracking poll, conducted by SurveyUSA. Today, it’s Scott 43%, Crist 42%. Libertarian Adrian Wyllie gets 4% today, siphoning more votes from Scott than from Crist.

The poll reflects the campaign’s ongoing ebb and flow, with one candidate pulling ahead one week, only to fall back the next. Compared to an identical WFLA-TV News Poll released 1 week ago, Crist is up 3 points, Scott is down 1 point. Scott had led by 5 points on 09/16/14, now leads by a nominal, and statistically insignificant 1 point. Ever so slowly, party members are returning to their base. Just 10% of Republicans today cross-over and vote Democratic. Just 10% of Democrats today cross-over and vote Republican. These are the lowest cross-over numbers SurveyUSA has recorded to date. Independents today break narrowly for Crist.

Scott’s Net Favorability Rating today is Minus 5, effectively unchanged week-on-week.
Crist’s Net Favorability Rating today is Minus 12, effectively unchanged week-on-week.

60% of Florida voters need to say “Yes” in order for medical marijuana to be legalized in the Sunshine State. Today, 53% say Yes, 32% say No. But, importantly, 15% tell SurveyUSA that they are undecided on the ballot measure. If those undecided voters all vote Yes, the measure passes with votes to spare. If those undecided voters, all vote No, the measure fails. If those undecided voters split, or do not show up, the measure squeaks-by, by a handful of votes.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this weekly tracking poll. SurveyUSA interviewed 750 adults 09/19/14 through 09/22/14. Of the adults, 682 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 588 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone or other electronic device. You must credit WFLA-TV of Tampa FL if you air, cite, or publish these results in whole or part.

In California’s 52nd Congressional District, Incumbent Democrat Peters and Republican Challenger DeMaio Now Tied

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 37 days ago

One month till voting in California begins, the fiercely fought contest in California’s 52nd Congressional district is effectively even — 47% for incumbent Democrat Scott Peters, to 46% for Republican challenger Carl DeMaio — according to an exclusive Union Tribune / KGTV-TV 10News poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

Peters holds 87% of the Democratic base; just 10% of Democrats cross-over and vote Republican. DeMaio holds 80% of the Republican base; 16% of Republicans cross-over and vote Democratic. Independents split. Peters ges 82% of the liberal vote. DeMaio gets 78% of the conservative vote. Moderates break for the Democrat by 22 points.

Voters say that “integrity” is the most important issue in the race. On that issue, Peters leads DeMaio by 19 points. Among voters who say that “fiscal responsibility” is the most important issue, DeMaio leads by 58 points. Among voters who say that the ability “to reach across party lines” is the most important issue, DeMaio leads by 39 points.

Compared to a KGTV-TV 10News poll released 3 months ago, DeMaio is down 5 points, Peters is up 3 points. DeMaio had led by 7, now nominally trails by 1, an 8-point swing to the incumbent. Then, DeMaio led by 17 points among men. Today, DeMaio leads by 2 points among men. Then, DeMaio led by 9 points among white voters. Today, DeMaio trails by 2 among white voters.

This research conducted 100% by telephone, “cell” respondents included: SurveyUSA interviewed 675 registered voters from California’s 52nd Congressional District 09/11/14 through 09/15/14, using Registration Based Sample (RBS, also known as “voter list sample”) provided by Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 559 were likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were called on their cell-phones, by live operators who hand-dialed the respondents, secured their cooperation, conducted the interview, and who remained on the call until the completion of the interview.

In Florida, Republican Scott Has Momentum, Democrat Crist Sputters, 7 Weeks Until Votes Are Counted; Medical Marijuana Backed

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 38 days ago

In an election for Governor of Florida today, 09/16/14, a month until ballots are mailed to voters, incumbent Republican Rick Scott is now 5 points atop Democratic challenger Charlie Crist, according to the latest WFLA-TV tracking poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Today’s results — Scott 44%, Crist 39% — are the first time that Crist has polled below 40% in the 6 months since WFLA-TV began tracking the contest.

Both candidates have Negative Net Favorability ratings. Crist is Minus 14: 33% of voters have a favorable opinion of him, 47% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of him. Scott is Minus 5: 39% of voters have a favorable opinion of him, 44% have an unfavorable opinion.

Compared to a WFLA-TV tracking poll one week ago, Crist is down 5 points, Scott is down 1 point. Libertarian Adrian Wyllie — today at 7% — is up 4 percentage points. Crist has lost ground among men, where he is today polling at 35%, 12 points behind Scott. Immediately before the 08/26/14 Democratic primary, Crist led among Independent voters, but today Crist is down among this critically important constituency by 13 points. In Southeast Florida, a Democratic stronghold which includes Miami and Fort Lauderdale, Crist is down 9 points week-on-week, and today leads in that part of the state by just 3. Without Southeast Florida solidly in one’s back pocket, no Democrat can carry the state.

State constitutional Amendment 2, which would give Floridians the right to use medicinal marijuana if prescribed by a physician, is backed by 25 points today, 56% voting Yes, 31% voting No. The measure is supported by 40 points among the youngest voters, and by 3 points among the oldest voters. Republicans and conservatives oppose. Moderates, liberals, Democrats and Independents support. The measure passes in every region of the state.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 state of Florida adults 09/12/14 through 09/15/14. Of the adults, 683 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 571 were likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

5 Weeks Until Voting Begins, Democrats Ahead By A Handful of Votes in Colorado Contests for Governor and US Senator

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 43 days ago

7 weeks to Election Day, and 5 weeks until voting begins, incumbent Democrat Mark Udall is narrowly atop Republican challenger Cory Gardner in the contest for US Senate, and incumbent Democrat John Hickenlooper is even more narrowly ahead of Republican challenger Bob Beauprez in the contest for Governor, according to an exclusive Denver Post News Poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Both contests at this hour could go either way.

In the US Senate race, which has national implications in terms of which party will have control of the Senate in the next Congress, Udall today defeats Gardner 46% to 42%. Udall’s entire lead comes from Independents, where he leads by 10 percentage points. Udall’s support also comes entirely from voters under age 50: the contest is tied among voters age 50+; Udall leads by 9 points among voters under age 50. There is a 18-point Gender Gap: Gardner leads by 5 points among male likely voters; Udall leads by 13 points among female likely voters. The more male the electorate, the better Gardner will do.

Udall leads by 19 points in greater Denver. Gardner leads elsewhere — by 11 points in greater Colorado Springs and by 16 points in the rest of Colorado. Udall leads by 3 points among whites and by 2 points among Colorado Hispanics. Udall leads among those with a 4-year college degree; Gardner leads among those with lesser education.

Gardner, a member of the US House of Representatives from CO’s 4th Congressional District, has a Net Zero favorability rating: 36% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of him, 36% have an unfavorable opinion of him. 28% say they need to know more about him before forming an opinion. Udall, by comparison, has a Minus 7 Net Favorability rating: 40% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Udall, 47% have an unfavorable opinion. 13% need to know more. The numbers are almost identical when SurveyUSA asks about job approval: 36% approve of the job that Gardner is doing as Congressman, 36% disapprove. 40% approve of the job Udall is doing as Senator, 46% disapprove.

Asked which candidate is more trustworthy, voters split: 40% say Udall, 38% say Gardner. Asked which candidate would make better decisions in office, voters split: 42% say Udall, 41% say Gardner.

In an election for Governor of Colorado today, Hickenlooper by the narrowest of margins, and well within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error, leads challenger Beauprez, 45% to 43%. In a contest this close, every vote that goes to a 3rd-party candidate is critically significant: Libertarian Matthew Hess today gets 4% of the vote, unaffiliated candidate Mike Dunafon gets 2% today, and Green Party candidate Harry Hempy gets 1%. Whites split, 44% to 44%. What little margin Hickenlooper has comes from Colorado’s minority communities. Every Hispanic, black and Asian-American vote is critical to the Democrat’s chances. Hickenlooper holds 83% of the Democratic base, Beauprez holds 81% of the Republican base. Independents narrowly break for the Democrat, 42% to 38%, with a non-trivial 14% of independents voting for one of the minor-party candidates. Where these disaffected Independents go on Election Day may well determine the outcome. 80% of conservatives vote Republican. 81% of Liberals vote Democratic. Moderates break by 19 points for Hickenlooper.

In Colorado, voters support the death penalty 2:1. Those who say the death penalty is a major factor in their vote for Governor back Beauprez 3:1. Those who say that the death penalty is not a factor in their vote for Governor back Hickenlooper by nearly 2:1. Those who say the death penalty is somewhat of a factor in their vote for Governor, split. Greater Denver backs the Governor’s re-election by 17 points. Elsewhere in Colorado, voters are ready for a change.

Hickenlooper’s favorability is Minus 1. Beauprez favorability is Plus 4. 46% approve of the job Hickenlooper is doing, 45% disapprove. Voters by 4 points say Hickenlooper is more trustworthy. Voters split on which candidate for Governor would make the better decisions while in office.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 850 state of Colorado adults 09/08/14 through 09/10/14. Of the adults, 772 were registered to vote. Of the registered votes, 664 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone ( 75% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (25% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Ballots will be mailed to voters on 10/14/14. Early voting begins on 10/20/14.

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