In a Democratic primary for US Senate, Dan Mongiardo may or may not hold off a late charge from Jack Conway, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for the Louisville Courier-Journal and WHAS-TV. Mongiardo is at 38%, Conway 37%, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. With 12% of voters undecided and 3 other candidates in the race, any outcome is possible. Lt. Governor Mongiardo led by 18 points when SurveyUSA polling began 2 months ago; 1 month ago, Conway had closed to within 3. In greater Louisville, Conway’s lead has consistently grown, from 8 points in March to 22 points in April to 31 points today. Eastern Kentucky has favored and still favors Mongiardo 3:1. Western Kentucky breaks 4:3 Mongiardo. North Central KY splits. More educated, more affluent, more pro-choice voters back Conway. Gun owners, pro-life voters and those who attend church back Mongiardo. Support for James Buckmaster, Darlene Price and Maurice Sweeney may dissipate on Election Day. Where these voters go could determine who faces Republican nominee Rand Paul in November.

In a Republican Primary for US Senate, 5 days to the Primary, Rand Paul defeats Trey Grayson 49% to 33%. Paul has led wire-to-wire. His constituency is educated, affluent and religious. Grayson, KY’s Secretary of State, is below 40% among every demographic group, and trails by double digits in all regions of the state save Eastern Kentucky, where he and Paul are even.

In a Republican primary for California Governor, 1 month until votes are counted, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman is losing ground to state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, according to SurveyUSA’s latest tracking poll , conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. Whitman gets 39% today, Poizner 37%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 18 days ago, Poizner is up 10 points; Whitman is down 10 points. 6 other candidates on the ballot remain in single digits. Among men, Whitman had led by 23 points, now trails by 4, a swing of 27 points to Poizner. Among voters age 18 to 49, Whitman had led by 19, now trails by 8, a swing of 27 points to Poizner. Poizner leads by double digits in the Central Valley; Whitman leads by double digits in the Bay Area, Northern Coast, and Inland Empire. The contest is volatile: additional swings are possible.

In the Democratic primary for CA Governor, Jerry Brown crushes his opposition, unchanged from SurveyUSA’s previous poll. 6 other Democrats combine to take 13% of the vote; 19% are undecided. Brown served as California’s 34th Governor, elected in 1974 and re-elected in 1978. Incumbent Governor Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger is term limited; the state’s term limit law does not apply to terms served before 1990, allowing Brown to run for the office again.

The GOP battle to face incumbent US Senator Democrat Barbara Boxer in November remains essentially unchanged. Today, former Congressman Tom Campbell defeats former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, 35% to 24%. State assembly member Chuck DeVore gets 15%. Limited movement since SurveyUSA’s previous poll. 23% are undecided: Among men, Campbell had led by 8 points, now leads by 12; among women, Campbell had led by 5, now 10. DeVore is up 5 points among voters age 18 to 49, Campbell is down 5, Fiorina is down 10. Among voters age 50+, Campbell is up 6. In California’s Inland Empire, Fiorina had led by 6 points, now trails by 5. Campbell’s lead in the Bay Area is now smaller, but his lead in greater Los Angeles is now larger.

In a Republican primary for CA Attorney General today, State Senator Tom Harman edges Los Angeles County DA Steve Cooley among voters who have a preference. But: 36% of likely voters are undecided, which means any outcome is possible.

In the Democratic primary for CA Attorney General, San Francisco DA Kamala Harris edges Los Angeles City Attorney Rocky Delgadillo, among voters who have a preference. But: 28% of likely voters are undecided, and any outcome is possible. Incumbent Attorney General Jerry Brown is running for Governor.

8 days until votes are counted in statewide Oregon primary elections, well-known names are well-positioned in 3 of 4 contests polled by SurveyUSA exclusively for KATU-TV in Portland.

In the Republican primary for Oregon Governor, former Portland Trailblazer Chris Dudley leads a crowded field, receiving 42% of the vote in an election held today, 05/10/10. Businessman Allen Alley today gets 24%; 7 other candidates run in single digits. Dudley leads by more than 2:1 among men, but edges Alley by only 3 points among women. Alley does not lead among any subset of voters, and trails 3:1 among the 28% of Republican primary voters who say they have already returned their ballots. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released one month ago, Dudley and Alley have both gained ground as the number of undecided voters has fallen from 34% to 14%, but Dudley’s 18-point lead today is little changed from his 15-point lead one month ago.

In the Democratic primary for Governor of Oregon, former governor John Kitzhaber dominates a smaller field of candidates, getting 59% today and leading his nearest competitor, Bill Bradbury, former Secretary of State, by 34 points. Bradley gets 25% today, up from 16% one month ago; Kitzhaber is up 4 points over the past month. Bradbury is competitive among the youngest voters and conservative Democrats, and holds a small lead among Hispanics.

In the Democratic primary for United States Senator from Oregon, incumbent Ron Wyden, first elected in a 1996 special election, easily defeats two opponents, taking 80% of the vote.

Which Republican will face Wyden in November? With 8 days left to return ballots, 43% of voters are undecided, making any outcome possible. Today, Lewis & Clark law professor Jim Huffman gets 20% of the vote; Realtor Tom Stutzman gets 11%. Farmer and truck driver Keith Waldron gets 9%; businesswoman Robin Parker gets 6%; 3 other candidates each get 4% of the vote. Huffman finishes first among both men and women, and leads by more than 2:1 among voters over age 50. Stutzman narrowly edges Huffman among voters age 18-49. Among those who have already returned ballots, Huffman gets 30%, Stutzman 17%. Among those who have not yet returned ballots, Huffman gets 16%, Stutzman 9%. Huffman leads by 5 points in the Portland area, by 14 in the rest of Oregon.

You can find full results of this poll right here .

In hypothetical election match-ups for Minnesota Governor, Republican Tom Emmer defeats each of three potential Democratic opponents, according to SurveyUSA research conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV Minneapolis. Republican Tim Pawlenty is not seeking re-election; the Governor’s seat is open.

In a match-up against Democrat House of Representatives Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, Emmer, a MN House member first elected in 2004, today gets 41%, Kelliher 33%. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner gets 9%; 17% of likely voters are undecided. Among men, Emmer leads by 13 points; among woman, Emmer leads by 3. Voters under 50 back Emmer by a 20-point margin; among those over age 50, Kelliher has a 4-point edge. Conservatives back Emmer by a 9:1 margin; liberals back Kelliher by 7:1; moderates favor Kelliher by a 16-point margin. Kelliher has been endorsed by the Democrat Farmer Labor Party.

In a match-up against former US Senator Mark Dayton, Republican Emmer performs similarly, winning an election today 42% to 34%. Here, Emmer leads by 17 points among men, trails by 3 points among women — a 20-point gender gap. Among voters age 18-49, Emmer leads by 21 points; among voters 50+, Dayton leads by 6. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner takes 1 in 10 votes here, as he does in all three hypothetical matchups; Horner runs twice as strongly among independents as he does among affiliated voters.

In a match-up against former MN House Minority Leader and 2006 Attorney General candidate Matt Entenza, Republican Emmer leads by 11 points, 42% to 31%. Here, men favor the Republican by 15 points; women favor the Republican by 8. Emmer leads by 22 points among voters age 18-49; the race is tied among voters 50+. 6 in 10 Democrats today vote for Entenza; 1 in 10 Democrats each vote for Emmer and Horner, and 1 in 5 Democrats are undecided.

Full results can be found here .

SurveyUSA asked adults in the Tampa area if they thought BP did everything they could to prevent the oil spill from happening in the Gulf or if they thought BP could have done more. 71% felt BP could have done more to prevent the spill while 15% thought BP did everything they could.

Research conducted for WFLA-TV Tampa.

Full results of this poll can be found here .

In a Republican Primary for United States Senate in California today, 04/22/10, 18 days until voting begins, former Congressman Tom Campbell edges former CEO Carly Fiorina, 34% to 27%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. State assembly member Chuck DeVore gets 14% today; frequent candidate Tim Kalemkarian gets 3%; 23% are undecided. Campbell runs particularly strong among Asian-Americans, among voters over age 65, among those who rarely attend religious services, and in the Bay Area. Fiorina tops Campbell among the youngest voters and among likely primary voters who do not state a party affiliation; she holds a slight lead in the Inland Empire. Elsewhere, the race is contested; any outcome is possible. Incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer is seeking her 4th term in an environment increasingly hostile to Democrats.

Click here for full results of this poll.

In primaries for California Governor today, 04/22/10, Republican Meg Whitman and Democrat Jerry Brown emerge to face each other in the November general election. In the Republican Primary, Whitman, the former CEO of eBay, gets 49%. Steve Poizner, currently state Insurance Commissioner, gets 27%. Six other Republicans combined receive 9%; 15% of likely primary voters are undecided. Whitman defeats Poizner by double digits in every demographic group and in all regions of the state; Poizner has strength in California’s Central Valley, but still trails there by 10 points.

In the Democratic Primary, Jerry Brown, currently California’s Attorney General, defeats 6 other Democrats and wins with 63% of the vote; no opponent today gets more than 6%. 18% of likely voters in the Democratic primary are undecided. Brown served as California’s 34th Governor, elected in 1974 and re-elected in 1978. Incumbent Governor Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger is term limited; the state’s term limit law does not apply to terms served before 1990, allowing Brown to run for the office again.

Poll conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KFSN-TV Fresno, KGTV-TV San Diego, KPIX-TV San Francisco. Full results can be found here .

SurveyUSA conducted this research for KING-TV Seattle and KATU-TV Portland.

View full results and tracking graphs here .

You can view full results and tracking here .

SurveyUSA conducted this research for KATU-TV Portland.

SurveyUSA conducted this research for  KWCH-TV Wichita.

Full results and tracking can be found here .