In North Carolina US Senate Primary, Republican Burr and Democrat Ross Positioned for Comfortable Wins; Burr 8 Points Atop Ross in General Election Matchup Today, But Supreme Court Confirmation Could Impact

SurveyUSA Operations - 130 days ago

2 weeks till primary voting begins in North Carolina and 4 weeks until primary votes are counted, Incumbent Republican Richard Burr and Democrat Deborah Ross appear poised to coast to victory, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for Time Warner Cable North Carolina. The Republican holds a narrow advantage today in a hypothetical general election matchup, but national events could influence the NC Senate outcome by a little or a lot.

In the Republican primary, Burr leads Greg Brannon 3:1 … 45% to 14%. Other challengers are in single digits. 30% are undecided or not focused on the contest.

In the Democratic primary, Ross leads 3 challengers by 4:1 or more. But: a majority, 55% are undecided or not focused on the contest at this hour. In the unlikely event that Ross does not reach 40% on 03/15/16, a May runoff could be necessary.

Among Republican primary voters, Burr polls above 50% among seniors, voters in Southern NC, Strong Republicans and Very Conservative voters. Among Democratic primary voters, Ross runs strong among well-educated voters, non-Evangelicals, among voters in Southern NC, and among voters who name health care as the most important issue in the campaign. Among all NC voters, Burr has a Minus 7 Net Job Approval: 34% of NC voters approve of the job Burr is doing as Senator; 41% disapprove. (By contrast, fellow U.S. Senator Thom Tillis, who is not up for re-election in 2016, has a Minus 11 Net Job Approval: 33% of voters approve of the job Tillis is doing as Senator, 44% disapprove.)

In a hypothetical general election matchup today, Republican Burr defeats Democrat Ross by 8 points, 45% to 37%. Burr leads by 22 points among white voters. Ross leads by 38 points among black voters. Burr leads by 33 points among voters with a high-school education. Ross leads narrowly among voters with a 4-year college degree. Burr leads by 13 points among men, by 4 points among women. Burr leads by 20 points in Southern NC, by 14 points in greater Charlotte and by 10 points in greater Greensboro. Ross leads by 6 points in greater Raleigh.

Caveat: Burr was quick to signal his support for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s statement that the US Senate should not hold confirmation hearings on a Supreme Court appointment made by Democratic President Barack Obama. The Democratic party and/or newly formed Super PACs may sink significant national dollars into the NC Senate race in an attempt to flip Burr’s seat from Red to Blue, in the Democratic hope of capturing 50 US Senate seats. Much may change in this contest between today and November.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,650 NC adults after the New Hampshire primary, between 02/14/16 and 02/16/16. Of the adults, 1,444 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 437 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the Republican primary, 449 were identified as likely to vote in the Democratic primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (62% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (38% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

1 Month To North Carolina Gubernatorial Primary, Incumbent Republican McCrory and Democrat Cooper Both Lead Party Challengers; In Head-to-Head November Matchup, McCrory, Backed by Whites, Evangelicals & Very Conservative Voters, Runs 3 Pts Ahead of Cooper

SurveyUSA Operations - 131 days ago

2 weeks till voting begins in the North Carolina primary for Governor, neither party’s primary nomination is closely contested, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for Time Warner Cable News North Carolina. But the November general election may go to the wire.

In the GOP primary, incumbent Pat McCrory leads Robert Brawley 67% to 17%. 16% are undecided or not focused on the contest.
In the Democratic primary, Roy Cooper leads Ken Spaulding 50% to 21%. 29% are undecided or not focused on the contest.

McCrory, elected Governor in 2012, polls in the Republican primary above 60% among men, women, voters of all ages, whites, voters of all income levels and voters of all education levels. McCrory will coast to an easy 03/15/16 win, barring something extraordinary.

Cooper polls in the Democratic primary at or above 50% among men and women, voters age 50+, whites, Strong Democrats and liberals. Cooper is disproportionately favored in greater Greensboro and greater Raleigh. He polls less well, but still leads, in greater Charlotte and in Southern NC. Cooper is an overwhelming favorite at this hour.

Among all NC voters, McCrory has a Minus 4 Net Job Approval: 42% of voters approve of the job McCrory is doing as Governor; 46% disapprove.

In November’s highly anticipated Gubernatorial duel, McCrory leads Cooper by a nominal 3 points, 45% to 42%, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. Cooper leads by 46 points among African American voters, but that is not enough to make up for the 16-point advantage the sitting Governor has among white voters. McCrory leads in Southern NC by 13 points, in greater Charlotte by 8 points and in greater Greensboro by 9 points. Cooper leads in greater Raleigh by 13 points.

McCrory leads 2:1 among evangelical voters, and leads by 10 points among men. Cooper leads by 4 points among women. To win, Cooper must do better than the 40% support he has among men, and he must make inroads among white voters. McCrory leads by 19 points among high-school educated voters. Cooper leads in single digits among the poorest and wealthiest North Carolinians. Cooper leads by 3 points among moderates and by 8 points among independents.

All NC voters (Democrat, Republican or unaffiliated) will have a chance to vote 03/15/16 on a $2 billion bond issue known as Connect NC. At this hour, “Yes” leads “No” 43% to 19%. But: opposition to ballot measures increases as election day approaches (in all geographies, not just NC), and this “Yes” lead, though by more than 2:1, should not be considered a “lock.” Strong Republicans oppose the measure, which would finance higher education construction, parks, safety, recreation, and water-sewer infrastructure. Strong Democrats back the measure 7:1.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,650 NC adults after the New Hampshire primary, between 02/14/16 and 02/16/16. Of the adults, 1,444 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 437 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the Republican primary, 449 were identified as likely to vote in the Democratic primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (62% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (38% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

1 Month to NC Presidential Primary, Trump Atop Rubio and Cruz; Clinton Well Ahead of Sanders; General Election Head-To-Head Matchups Favor Republicans if Clinton is the Democratic Nominee

SurveyUSA Operations - 132 days ago

2 weeks till voting begins in the North Carolina presidential primary and 4 weeks until votes are counted, Donald Trump remains the Republican front-runner, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for Time Warner Cable News North Carolina. But: By the time North Carolina’s primary ballots are counted 03/15/16, Trump may be the only Republican left in the race, Trump may have splintered off to launch a 3rd-party bid for the White House, or any no-scenario-too-wild permutation in between.

Today, 02/17/16, Trump, at 36%, leads Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, who tie for 2nd place at 18%. John Kasich, in 5th place at 7%, and Jeb Bush, in 6th place at 5%, finish behind Ben Carson, whose campaign is sputtering but who finishes 4th at 10%. Trump’s 36% in North Carolina is similar to the 35% of the vote he received in last week’s New Hampshire primary, higher than the 24% Trump received in Iowa. Two thirds of the interviews for this survey were completed before George W. Bush campaigned in neighboring South Carolina for his brother Jeb; one third of the interviews were completed after Bush’s appearance.

Trump’s NC primary support grows from 32% among “very conservative” voters to 37% among “conservative” voters to 40% among “moderate” voters. Even though Cruz’s support is disproportionately “very conservative,” Trump edges Cruz in this key demographic. And: Cruz trails Trump (though Cruz edges Rubio) among North Carolina’s evangelical voters. Trump leads Rubio by 17 points among “Strong Republicans.” Trump leads Rubio by 10 points among “Independents who Lean Republican.” Trump leads his nearest challenger by more than 2:1 among high-school educated voters and by 4:1 among voters earning less than $40,000 a year.

Trump is at 47% in Southern NC and at 28% in greater Raleigh. Cruz and Rubio are both weak in greater Greensboro. Cruz is also weak in Southern NC. Trump is at 41% among voters who have lived in NC more than 20 years.

Among Republican primary voters who say the economy is the most important issue in the campaign, Trump leads Rubio by 15 points. Among voters who say health care is the most important issue, Trump leads Cruz by 29 points. Among voters who say that terrorism is the most important issue, Trump leads Rubio by 8 points.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 51% to 36%. Sanders leads by a nominal 3 points among white voters. Clinton’s entire primary lead comes from African Americans, where she out-polls Sanders at this hour by 45 points. Clinton’s support is disproportionately old. Sanders support is disproportionately young. Clinton runs 21 points better than Sanders among NC Democratic women.

“Very Liberal” voters back Sanders. “Liberal,” “Moderate” and “Conservative” voters back Clinton. Clinton runs strongest among middle-income voters. Sanders leads Clinton among voters who have some college education but who have not gotten a 4-year college degree. But Clinton clobbers Sanders among Democrats with a high-school education.

When Hillary Clinton is paired against the leading 3 Republicans in hypothetical head-to-head November matchups, she loses. Among all NC likely general election voters, it’s:

Rubio 49%, Clinton 42%.
Cruz 48%, Clinton 43%.
Trump 45%, Clinton 43%.

When Bernie Sanders is paired against the leading 3 Republicans in hypothetical head-to-head November matchups, Sanders outperforms Clinton:

Sanders 46%, Cruz 42%.
Sanders 45%, Rubio 44%.
Sanders 44%, Trump 44%.

President Barack Obama’s approval rating at this hour, among all NC registered voters, is Minus 11. 42% of voters approve of the job Obama is doing. 53% disapprove.

Caveats: Much will happen between today and 03/15/16 that could affect this presidential primary polling. More than 2 dozen states hold primaries or caucuses between today and 03/15/16, each of which contests may give momentum to, or suck oxygen from, a given candidate. Republicans may drop out of the race. Those who drop out may throw their support behind one of the remaining candidates. The campaign may become less civil, if such a thing is possible, or perhaps each of the two parties coalesce behind a single candidate by the time Tarheel voters weigh in.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,650 NC adults after the New Hampshire primary, between 02/14/16 and 02/16/16. Of the adults, 1,444 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 437 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary, 449 were identified as likely to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

State of Utah Supports Better Air Quality, Death Penalty, Medical Marijuana, and Helping the Homeless, Opposes Paying for Computers in Classrooms, Split on Decision to Cut Funding to Planned Parenthood

SurveyUSA Operations - 144 days ago

Utah Mormons by 4:1 support the LDS church’s new policy that labels same-sex Mormon couples as “apostates,” according to SurveyUSA statewide research conducted for the Salt Lake Tribune and the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah. Non-Mormons oppose the new “apostate” policy by 4:1. Mormons support by 7:2 the church’s new policy that bars children of same-sex couples from baptism until age 18. Non-Mormons oppose 4:1.

Utah is divided on the Governor’s decision to cut off funding for Planned Parenthood: 44% approve of the decision, 46% disapprove.

Among the survey’s other key findings, Utah …

* Overwhelmingly supports the death penalty in capital cases.
* By 2:1 favors legalizing medical marijuana.
* Narrowly supports the state suing the federal government to transfer control of public lands.
* Splits on whether the jail sentence for Phil Lyman was too harsh or too lenient.
* Splits on whether Medicaid should cover an additional 125,000 uninsured low-income residents.
* Wants liquor sales to be controlled by the private sector.
* Is conflicted about whether to build a pipeline from Lake Powell to Washington County.
* Thinks the state should not have to pay for every student to have a computer in the classroom.

How are Utah’s leaders perceived …

* Utah Governor Gary Herbert has a Plus 28 Net Job Approval: 55% of Utah voters approve of the job Herbert is doing, 27% disapprove.
* Utah Senator Mike Lee has a Plus 8 Net Job approval: 45% of voters approve of the job Lee is doing, 37% disapprove.
* The Utah Legislature has a Minus 4 Net Job approval: 39% of voters approve of the job the legislature is doing, 43% disapprove.

Looking Ahead to Utah’s 2016 Presidential Caucuses …

4 Republicans effectively tie for the affection of Utah’s Republicans. Ted Cruz is backed by 18% of likely GOP caucus goers, Donald Trump is backed by 17%, Marco Rubio and Ben Carson are both backed by 15%.

Hillary Clinton narrowly leads Bernie Sanders, 50% to 40%, among likely Democratic caucus goers.

Filtering …

SurveyUSA interviewed 1,200 adults from the state of Utah 01/06/16 through 01/13/16. Of the adults, 989 were registered to vote in the state of Utah, and were asked the majority of the questions in this survey. Of the 989 registered voters, 414 tell SurveyUSA they are certain to caucus as a Republican, 191 are certain to caucus as a Democrat. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

This research was commissioned in part by the Salt Lake Tribune, the future of which is uncertain. 35% of Utahns say they would like the newspaper sold to a Utahn. 34% say they would like the newspaper to continue to operate as is. 9% say they would like the newspaper sold to a newspaper chain. 7% say they would like the newspaper to be shut down.

In Florida, 19 Weeks to GOP Presidential Primary, Trump Tops Carson and Rubio 2:1; Former FL Governor Bush Runs 5th; Dem Clinton Dispatches Sanders 3:1; State’s 29 Electoral Votes Go Red if Trump or Carson Face Clinton in General Election

SurveyUSA Operations - 11/06/15 09:21 AM

Hillary Clinton wins 3:1 a Florida Democratic Presidential Primary today and Donald Trump wins 2:1 a Republican presidential primary today, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for Bay News 9 in Tampa and News 13 Orlando.

Trump gets 37% to Ben Carson’s 17% to Marco Rubio’s 16%, in research completed after the most recent GOP candidate debate. Ted Cruz runs 4th at 10%, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is 5th at 7%. Trump gets 49% of the vote among Republican Primary voters who say that immigration is the most important issue that the country faces. Trump leads in all 5 regions of the state.

Clinton today gets 66% to 24% for Bernie Sanders. Clinton is above 50% in every region of the state. Clinton leads 2:1 among whites, 9:1 among blacks.

If Clinton and Trump are their party’s nominees, Florida’s 29 vital electoral votes turn red: Trump 47%, Clinton 43%.
If Clinton and Carson are their party’s nominees, Florida’s 29 vital electoral votes turn red: Carson 47%, Clinton 44%.
If Clinton and Rubio are their party’s nominees, Florida is too-close-to-call: Clinton 46%, Rubio 45%.

Florida registered voters support a constitutional amendment to legalize medical marijuana, 2:1. Voters split on whether recreational use of marijuana should be legalized.

Voters by 5:3 favoring legalizing casino gambling in Florida.

Filtering: 3,000 state of Florida adults were interviewed 10/28/15 through 11/01/15. Of the adults, 2,712 were registered to vote in the state of Florida. Of the registered voters, 2,400 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 922 were likely to vote in the 03/15/16 Republican primary and 826 were likely to vote in the 03/15/16 Democratic primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode: respondents reachable on their home telephone (69% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (31% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Barack Obama carried Florida (the state was “blue”) in both 2008 and 2012.

GA Super Tuesday Look-Ahead: GOP Trump Today 7 Pts Atop Carson; Dem Clinton Buries Sanders; 16 Electoral Votes Stay Red At This Hour

SurveyUSA Operations - 11/03/15 12:30 PM

4 months till Super Tuesday, 3 key findings emerge from this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WXIA-TV in Atlanta:

Donald Trump leads Ben Carson 35% to 28% in the contest to be the Republican nominee for President for 2016.
Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 73% to 16% in the contest to be the Democratic nominee for President in 2016.
If those two candidates are in fact the major-party nominees, Trump defeats Clinton in a general election today, 46% to 37%.

Other findings:

Georgia splits on whether the Confederate Battle Flag should be taken down over public property.
Georgia opposes holding elections online.
Georgia supports holding elections on a weekend.
Georgia supports the death penalty.

In the contest for the Republican nomination, Marco Rubio runs 3rd, with 12% of the vote; all others are in single digits. Trump leads by a nominal 2 points among conservative voters, and leads by 11 points among moderate voters. Trump leads by 20 points among the least educated voters. Carson and Trump are effectively tied among the most educated Republican Primary voters. Trump leads by 20 points among the least affluent voters; Carson leads among the most affluent Republican Primary voters.

Sanders is not today competitive in Georgia; Clinton captures the Democratic Party nomination by more than 4:1.

Filtering: 2,075 adults from the state of Georgia were interviewed 10/15/15 through 10/26/15. Of the adults, 1,787 were registered to vote in the state of Georgia. Of those registered to vote, SurveyUSA determined that 629 would be likely to vote in the 03/01/16 Republican primary and 481 would be likely to vote in the 03/01/16 Democratic primary; 1,554 would be likely to vote in the November 2016 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (68% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (32% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

Fresno Unified School District Split On Superintendent Actions, But Majority Call For Leave of Absence During Investigation

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/29/15 11:00 PM

70% of adults in the Fresno Unified School District who are following news stories about Superintendent Michael Hanson say Hanson should take a leave of absence from his post while an investigation takes place, according to this latest exclusive KFSN-TV News poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Among parents with children attending district schools, it’s higher; 80% say he should step down during the investigation.

Should Hanson not take a leave of absence, 62% of those following the stories say the school district should suspend him; 26% say it should not.

18% of those following stories say Hanson has done nothing wrong; 50% say he has committed ethical violations but not broken any laws; 20% say Hanson has broken the law.

Full results available here.

Oakland Residents About-Face on City Direction, Quality of Life, Biggest Problem

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/28/15 09:15 PM

18 months ago, when SurveyUSA last took the pulse of Oakland, California’s residents exclusively for KPIX-TV, there wasn’t much good news to report: the mayor, then Jean Quan, had a Minus 42 Net Approval rating; 64% said the city was off on the wrong track; 49% said the quality of life in Oakland was getting worse, compared with 36% who said it was staying the same and 15% who said it was getting better; 71% said crime was the city’s biggest problem, 7 times as many who chose any other issue.

A year before that, in 2013, the results were largely identical.

Today, a year and a half after we last asked these identical questions, much has changed:

* Mayor Libby Schaaf, elected one year ago, has a Plus 15 Net Approval Rating.
* There has been a 45 point turnaround in the percentage saying Oakland is headed in the right direction.
* The number saying the quality of life in Oakland is getting better has more than doubled, from 15% to 37%; the number saying it’s getting worse has been cut nearly in half, from 49% to 26%.
* Crime, while still seen as the city’s biggest problem, is now seen that way by 36%, down from 71% in March of 2014 and 2013. The cost of owning a home, identified as the biggest problem by 4% of adults in previous years, is now just behind crime with 25% selecting it.

Full results of today’s poll here.

KY Governor Contest Ends Where it Started, with Democrat Conway Narrowly Atop Republican Bevin; Democrats Appear to Pull Ahead in Contests for Attorney General and State Auditor: Lundergan Grimes Well Positioned to Defeat Knipper for KY Secretary of State; Treasurer Contest Tight

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/28/15 06:59 PM

Heading into the final weekend of campaigning to fill the open seat for Governor of Kentucky, Democrat Jack Conway continues to lead Republican Matt Bevin narrowly, according to this final Bluegrass Poll conducted by SurveyUSA for the Louisville Courier Journal, Lexington Herald Leader, WHAS-TV, and WKYT-TV. In 3 separate SurveyUSA polls going back to 07/29/15, Conway has led by 5 points. Today, at the wire, it’s Conway 45%, Bevin 40%, and Independent Drew Curtis 6%.

Bevin ends the contest with a Minus 6 Net Favorability Rating: 38% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Bevin, compared to 32% who have a favorable opinion. Conway ends the contest with a Plus 4 Net Favorability Rating: 36% of voters have a favorable opinion of Conway, 32% have an unfavorable opinion. Curtis ends the contest where he started, largely unknown: 80% of voters have no opinion of Curtis, or have a neutral opinion of him.

Conway siphons from Bevin 8% of likely voters who identify themselves as “Strong Republicans,” 10% of likely voters who identify themselves as “Republicans,” and 15% of likely voters who identify themselves as “Independents who Lean Republican.” This leakage is combined with 15% of “very conservative” voters who vote Democratic and 21% of “conservative” voters who vote Democratic.

There is late movement in the contest for Attorney General: Democrat Andy Beshear today leads Republican Whitney Westerfield 47% to 35%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 1 month ago, on 09/28/15, the Democrat is up 9 points, the Republican is down 3 points.

There is late movement in the contest for for State Auditor: Incumbent Democrat Adam Edelen today leads Republican Mike Harmon 42% to 34%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 1 month ago, on 09/28/15, the Democrat is up 7 points, the Republican is up 1 point. Edelen had led by 2 points, now by 8 points.

There is late movement in the contest for State Agricultural Commissioner: Republican Ryan Quarles today leads Democrat Jean-Marie Lawson Spann 40% to 33%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 1 month ago, on 09/28/15, the Republican Quarles is up 6 points, the Democrat Lawson Spann is up 2 points. Quarles had led by 3 points, today leads by 7 points.

The contest for State Treasurer is too-close-to-call. Republican Allison Ball and Democrat Rick Nelson are separated by 2 points, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error: 37% Ball, 35% Nelson, with 28% of voters either undecided or not following the contest. These results are effectively unchanged from 1 month ago, when Ball had 35% and Nelson had 33%.

At the wire, incumbent Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes appears to pull ahead and defeat Republican Steve Knipper in the contest for KY Secretary of State. Today, it’s Lundergan Grimes 50%, Knipper 37%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 1 month ago, Grimes is up 4 points, Knipper is down 1 point. Grimes had led by 8 points, today leads by 13 points.

Filtering: 1,200 state of Kentucky adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/23/15 through 10/26/15. Of the adults, 1,016 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 798 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/03/15 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smart phone, tablet or other electronic device.

In Houston Mayor Election, 5 Candidates Have Chance to Advance to Runoff; None Likely to Win Seat Outright on 11/03/15

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/17/15 08:40 AM

In an election for Houston Mayor today, 10/15/2015, 19 days until votes are counted, no candidate approaches the majority required to win the seat outright and avoid a runoff, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KPRC-TV in Houston.

Today, State Representative Sylvester Turner finishes just ahead of the rest of the pack of 13 candidates with 20% of the vote; attorney Bill King gets 14%, neck-and-neck with former Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia at 13%, former US Representative Chris Bell with 12%, and City Councilmember Stephen Costello at 11%. Two other named candidates are in single digits; 3% would vote for one of the other candidates on the ballot; 22% today are undecided.

Turner leads by 6:1 among African Americans and is strong among older voters and Democrats. King is strong among those most concerned with the city budget. Garcia leads by more than 2:1 among Hispanics and edges out Turner among those voters who say city taxes and fees will be the most important issue in determining their vote for mayor.

25% of Likely voters identify the economy and jobs as the most important issue in this election, and Costello leads among those voters. 17% say the city budget is the most important issue; King holds a significant lead among those voters. The 15% of voters who say the Houston Equal Rights Ordinance is most important split their support between Turner and Bell.

Voting on Houston’s Proposition One, the Houston Equal Rights Ordinance, is too close to call at this hour. Today, 45% of likely voters would vote yes on the ballot measure; 36% vote no. 20% of voters are undecided. Younger voters, whites, blacks, and Democrats support; Republicans, independents, and Hispanics oppose; older voters are divided.

Filtering: 675 Houston adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/12/15 through 10/14/15. Of the adults, 567 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 504 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/03/15 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (61% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (39% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smart phone, tablet or other electronic device.

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