In City of Portland, Oregon: Ted Wheeler Is Overwhelming Favorite to Win Mayoral Primary; But Will He Avoid an 11/08/16 Runoff?

SurveyUSA Operations - 148 days ago

4 weeks till voting begins in the open contest for Mayor of Portland, Oregon State Treasurer Ted Wheeler is an overwhelming favorite to win the city’s 05/17/16 mail-in non-partisan primary, according to newly completed SurveyUSA research conducted exclusively for KATU-TV. But there is drama as to whether Wheeler will get more than 50% of the votes cast, which is what he would need to avoid a runoff election with the 2nd-place finisher. Incumbent Charlie Hales is not seeking re-election.

Here are the 15 candidates for Portland Mayor, in order of finish (this is not the order the names were read to respondents):

Ted Wheeler = 38%.
Jules Bailey = 8%.
David Ackerman = 4%
Patty Burkett = 4%.
Bruce Broussard = 3%.
Deborah Harris = 2%
Sean Davis = 2%.
Sarah Iannarone = 2%.
Lew Humble = 2%.
Eric Alexander Calhoun = 1%.
Bim Ditson = 1%.
David Schor = 1%.
Steven J Entwisle Sr = 0%
Trevor Manning = 0%.
Jessie Sponberg = 0%.
Undecided = 31%.

Wheeler dominates among Republicans, Democrats and Independents, among conservatives, moderates and liberals, among men and women. Wheeler runs away with the contest among city of Portland Hillary Clinton supporters, Bernie Sanders supporters, Donald Trump supporters, Ted Cruz supporters and John Kasich supporters. Wheeler leads overwhelmingly among voters who say the most important issue in the campaign is affordable housing, among those who say the most important issue is homelessness, among those who say the most important issue is taxes, and among those who say the most important issue is traffic.

If Wheeler receives more than 50% of the vote in the Primary, he wins. Even with 14 other candidates on the ballot, this is possible given that 31% of the likely voters interviewed by SurveyUSA are undecided at this hour. If undecided voters break proportionately across all candidates, Wheeler will approach the cutoff. If undecided voters break for other candidates and not for Wheeler, he will fall short. The fierce battle in Portland will be for 2nd place, in the event of a runoff.

Also on the primary ballot is Measure #26-173, the Temporary Motor Vehicle Fuel Tax for Street Repair, which would create a 4-year 10-cent a gallon fuel tax. At this hour, voters are divided: approximately 1/3 support the measure, 1/3 oppose the measure and 1/3 are not sure how they will vote on the measure. Support is strongest among the youngest voters and among the most liberal voters. Opposition to ballot measures typically increases as Election Day approaches (having nothing to do with Oregon, the city of Portland or with this specific measure). Every vote will be needed for Measure #26-173 to pass.

About SurveyUSA interviewed 700 city of Portland adults 03/28/16 through 04/01/16. Of the adults 630 were registered to vote. Of the registered, SurveyUSA identified 576 who were likely to vote in the Mayoral primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone, or other electronic device.

In Michigan, Kasich Runs Strongest of 3 GOP Finalists, But Sanders Beats All Comers; Baselines Established for Possible Ryan or Romney Entries

SurveyUSA Operations - 156 days ago

In hypothetical head-to-head matchups in a general election held “today,” Republican John Kasich runs the strongest of any of the 3 remaining GOP candidates against Democrat Hillary Clinton, but Bernie Sanders outperforms Hillary Clinton and defeats all comers, according to SurveyUSA’s latest polling. Possible monkey-wrench candidates Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney are also paired.

Michigan has potentially great significance in 2016 given bluster from Donald Trump that he will flip the state’s 16 electoral college votes from Blue to Red. In 2008, Barack Obama carried Michigan by 16 points over John McCain. In 2012, Obama carried Michigan by 9 points over Mitt Romney, whose family has deep Michigan ties. Michigan last voted for a Republican for President in 1988, when George H.W. Bush defeated Michael Dukakis by 8 points.

Here is how the 2016 contest in Michigan looks at this hour, 230 days until votes are counted:

Hillary Clinton defeats Donald Trump today by 11 points, 49% to 38%. Trump is the weakest of the Republican candidates.
Hillary Clinton defeats Ted Cruz today by 10 points, 49% to 39%.
John Kasich defeats Hillary Clinton today by 5 points, 46% to 41%. Kasich is the strongest of the Republican candidates at this hour.

Bernie Sanders defeats Donald Trump today by 19 points, 55% to 36%.
Bernie Sanders defeats Ted Cruz today by 21 points, 56% to 35%.
Bernie Sanders defeats John Kasich today by 5 points, 47% to 42%.

Though neither Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Paul Ryan nor 2012 Republican Party nominee Mitt Romney have asked to be the 2016 Republican nominee, speculation about an unforeseen outcome at the Republican National Convention keeps both names in circulation. Today, in Michigan, SurveyUSA finds:

Hillary Clinton defeats Paul Ryan today by 10 points, 48%to 38%.
Hillary Clinton defeats Mitt Romney today by 13 points, 48%to 35%. 75% of Romney 2012 voters stick with Mitt in 2016; 10% defect to Clinton; 15% are undecided.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 904 likely voters statewide 03/23/16 and 03/24/16. Research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (63% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (37% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Like other polls which have shown similar results, these research findings may be unbearable for Kasich and Sanders supporters. Both Kasich and Sanders face a relentless drumbeat of criticism for staying in the race, and not dropping out.

1 Week To NC Republican Presidential Primary, Before Results from Michigan are Known, Trump Atop Cruz; Ross Atop Rey in Democratic Senate Primary; Burr, McCrory, Cooper Positioned for Statewide Primary Wins

SurveyUSA Operations - 172 days ago

Ted Cruz may be closing in on Donald Trump in North Carolina, in the Republican primary for President of the United States, according to the latest poll commissioned by WRAL-TV in Raleigh. During the first half of interviewing for this survey, before the results of the 03/05/16 Kansas, Maine, Kentucky, and Louisiana Republican contests were known, Cruz polled at 23%. After news of Cruz’s strong Saturday showing had been digested, Cruz polled at 33%. During the same period, Trump’s support softened ever-so-slightly, from 42% to 39%. Rubio’s support declined from 16% to 11% and John Kasich’s support crept 3 points higher.

When data from all 4 days of interviewing is integrated, the results at this hour are:

Trump 41%, Cruz 27%, Marco Rubio 14%, and John Kasich 11%. 

Trump led Cruz by 19 points during the first 2 days of interviewing. Trump led Cruz by 6 points during the last 2 days of interviewing.

Results of next week’s North Carolina presidential voting may be influenced by today’s 03/08/16 Michigan and Mississippi primaries. Should Trump perform worse than expected in Michigan, that may cast doubt on his inevitability. Should Rubio perform worse than expected in Michigan, that may increase the calls for him to exit the race. Should Cruz surprise in Michigan, that may make him an acceptable Trump alternative to some Republican primary voters who have not yet returned a ballot in the Tarheel State.

At this hour, among voters who say they are a member of the Tea Party, Cruz edges Trump, 42% to 40%. Among NC evangelicals, which should be Cruz’s strong suit, Trump prevails 42% to 31%. Among “very conservative” Republican primary voters, Trump and Cruz are bunched, 39% to 37%. Among “moderates,” Rubio moves into 2nd place behind Trump, Kasich moves into 3rd place, and Cruz falls to 4th. Trump leads in all 4 regions of the state. Cruz runs 2nd in all 4 regions of the state. Trump leads Cruz by 19 points among those with a high school education. Trump leads Cruz by 23 points among primary voters earning less than $40,000 a year. The contest is closer among college educated voters, where Cruz draws to within 5 points of Trump.

Trump leads by 7 among pro-life primary voters and leads by 32 points among pro-choice primary voters. Trump leads by 24 points among those who almost never attend church. Trump leads by just 5 points among those who attend church regularly.

In a Democratic Primary for President today, Hillary Clinton defeats Bernie Sanders 57% to 34%. Sanders’ support is young; he leads Clinton nearly 2:1 among those 18 to 34. But among seniors, Clinton buries Sanders by nearly 4:1. Clinton leads by 8 points among white Democrats, and leads by 54 points among black Democrats. Momentum is with Clinton. During the first half of the field period, Clinton led Sanders by 12. During the 2nd half of the field period, Clinton led Sanders by 46 points. About 1/6th of the interviews for this survey were completed after the 03/06/16 CNN Democratic Presidential Debate in Flint MI.

In a Republican primary today for US Senator from North Carolina, incumbent Richard Burr defeats Greg Brannon 3:1. Burr polls above 40% in every region of the state. 27% of likely Republican primary voters say they are undecided, even though voting is well underway.

In a Democratic primary today for US Senator, Deborah Ross leads her nearest challenger, Chris Rey, by 25 points. 44% of likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided in this contest, so any outcome is conceivably possible. Among those Democrats who have decided, Ross leads materially among both whites and blacks. Ross’s support is strongest in greater Raleigh, weakest in Southern and Coastal Carolina. Rey challenges Ross among primary voters with a high school education, but Ross distances herself, with a 5:1 advantage, among college educated primary voters.

In a Republican primary for NC Governor today, incumbent Pat McCrory sails to an easy win. In a Democratic primary for Governor, Roy Cooper is well positioned to defeat Ken Spaulding, though 30% of likely Democratic primary voters say they are undecided in the contest.

“For” leads “Against” on the Connect NC bond referendum on the primary election ballot. 45% of voters today support the measure, 18% oppose, 36% are not certain how they will vote on Connect NC.

Job approvals:

Barack Obama, Minus 10 …… 43% of NC registered voters approve of the job Obama is doing as President, 53% disapprove.
Pat McCrory, Minus 6 …… 40% of NC registered voters approve of the job McCrory is doing as Governor, 46% disapprove.
Richard Burr, Minus 9 …… 34% of registered voters approve of the job Burr is doing as U.S. Senator, 43% disapprove.
Roy Cooper, Plus 18 …… 46% of registered voters approve of the job Cooper is doing as NC Attorney General, 28% disapprove.
NC State Legislature, Minus 25 …… 28% of registered voters approve of the job the legislature is doing, 53% disapprove.
US Congress, Minus 65 …… 12% of registered voters approve of the job the U.S. Congress is doing, 77% disapprove.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,000 North Carolina adults 03/04/16 through 03/07/16. Of the adults, 1,800 were registered to vote. Of those registered to vote, SurveyUSA identified 1,555 as likely to vote in the 03/15/16 primary election, with 688 likely to vote in the 03/15/16 Republican primary, and 687 likely to vote in the 03/15/16 Democratic primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (70% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Random-digit-dial sample provided by SSI. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (30% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. All interviews for this survey were completed after the 03/03/16 Fox News “small hands” debate in Detroit.

Time-Lapse Photography Into the State of Florida 03/15/16 Republican Primary; Cruz Moving Up, Rubio Trending Down, Trump Impervious & Still in the Lead

SurveyUSA Operations - 173 days ago

7 days till votes are counted in the Florida Republican Primary for President of the United States, Donald Trump appears to have an advantage over Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, according to SurveyUSA research conducted exclusively for TV station Bay News 9 in Tampa. But: a fluid electorate makes it difficult to freeze-frame the state of the race in a way that will “hold” until Election Day.

At this hour, it’s Trump 42%, favorite-son Rubio 22%, Cruz 17%. But, there is inter-day play that is worth introspection. On the first day of interviewing (Friday 03/04/16, after the Thursday night Fox News “small hands” Republican Party Debate in Detroit), Ted Cruz had 13% of the primary vote. On the last day of interviewing (Sunday 03/06/16, after the results of the Saturday caucuses in Kansas, Maine and Kentucky were known, and after the results of the Louisiana primary were known), Cruz had 21% of the primary vote, a specific upward trajectory. On the first day of interviewing, Rubio had 25% of the primary vote, compared to 20% on the last day of interviewing. A downward trajectory, though less pronounced. Trump polled at 43%, 41%, and 44% over the 3 days of interviewing for the survey — no particular trajectory, and no evidence that Trump has yet been wounded by relentless anti-Trump advertising in the Sunshine State.

Results of today’s 03/08/16 Michigan and Mississippi primaries will color Florida results, one week later. If Cruz has an unexpectedly strong showing in Michigan and/or Mississippi, and is able to maintain 24 or 48 hours of uninterrupted media spotlight, he may carry that momentum into Florida and eclipse Rubio. If Rubio has a comparatively weak showing in Michigan and/or Mississippi, he may lose critical support back home. Should Trump’s support collapse in Michigan and Mississippi, that may dampen Trump’s perceived inevitability, and cut into his Florida base, making the outcome far closer than it herein appears. In the end, however, whether Trump wins the Florida Primary by 3 votes or 300,000 votes, and whether Cruz or Rubio finishes in 2nd place, Trump wins the same number of convention delegates, 99, and Cruz and Rubio both get zero. Trump has 84 more delegates than Cruz at this hour. Trump has 233 more delegates than Rubio.

For now, among Republican primary voters who tell SurveyUSA that they have already returned a ballot, it’s Trump 47%, Rubio 29%, Cruz 10%. Among voters who have not yet returned a ballot but who promise to do so before polling places close, it’s Trump 41%, Rubio 20%, Cruz 19%.

Rubio leads Trump 38% to 27% among Cubans who plan to vote in the Republican Primary. Trump leads Rubio by 15 points among non-Cuban Hispanics. Trump polls above 40% in 4 regions of the state — NW FL, NE FL, Central FL, and SW FL. Trump is at 37% in SE FL, with Rubio on his heels at 31%. Trump leads Cruz by 10 points among voters who are “very conservative.” Trump leads Cruz by 34 points among voters who are “moderate.” Rubio’s support is strong among GOP primary voters who do not own a gun and who are not members of the Tea Party. John Kasich, who polls at 10% in a GOP primary “today,” does best among women, seniors, pro-choice voters and moderates.

In a Democratic primary today, Hillary Clinton defeats Bernie Sanders 2:1. Support for Sanders declined from 33% on the first day of interviewing to 25% on the last day of interviewing.

Looking ahead to the 11/08/16 general election, Florida’s critical 29 electoral college votes are very much in play. Clinton today runs effectively even with any of the top 3 Republicans. At this hour, it’s:

* Trump 45%, Clinton 44%. Clinton gets 82% of the black vote, 61% of the Non-Cuban Hispanic vote.
* Clinton 45%, Rubio 44%. Clinton gets 82% of the black vote, 58% of the Non-Cuban Hispanic vote.
* Clinton 46%, Cruz 44%. Clinton gets 79% of the black vote, 64% of the Non-Cuban Hispanic vote.

In the 08/30/16 Republican primary for U.S. Senator from Florida, “other” and “undecided” today combine for 50% of the likely vote — so all named candidates have significant opportunity to move up or down. Today, it’s David Jolly at 18%, Ron DeSantis at 11%, Carlos Lopez-Cantera at 9%, Todd Wilcox at 7%, Ilya Katz at 4%. Among those Republicans likely to vote in the Senate primary, 56% say they would definitely vote for Ben Carson, should Carson enter the race.

In the 08/30/16 Democratic primary for U.S. Senator, “other” and “undecided” combine for 46% of the vote, leaving plenty of room for all 3 named candidates — Patrick Murphy who polls at 27%, Alan Grayson who polls at 16%, and Pam Keith who polls at 11%.

Like U.S. Senate races in other states in 2016, Florida’s Senate fight will have national significance, and will likely see millions of outside dollars poured into it, as both Democrats and Republicans seek to control the Upper Chamber in the next Congress so as to steer the confirmation hearings for Justice Antonin Scalia’s replacement. The open Florida Senate seat is currently held by Republican Rubio, who is not seeking re-election.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,450 state of Florida adults 03/04/16 through 03/06/16. Of the adults, 2,204 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 1,961 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election, 937 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 03/15/16 Republican presidential primary, 823 were determined to be likely to vote in the 03/15/16 Democratic presidential primary, 724 were determined to be likely to vote in the 08/30/16 Republican primary for US Senator, and 592 were determined to be likely to vote in the 08/30/16 Democratic primary for US Senator. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (64% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (36% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, or other electronic device. Most of the interviews for this survey were completed before the results of the Puerto Rico Republican Primary were known; Rubio won decisively there. All interviews for this survey were completed before the 03/06/16 CNN Democratic Presidential Debate in Flint MI. Mitt Romney won the Florida Republican Presidential Primary in 2012 with 46% of the vote. Democrat Barack Obama carried Florida in the 2008 and 2012 general elections. Republican George W Bush carried Florida in 2004 and was awarded Florida by the Supreme Court of the United States in 2000.

11 Alive Atlanta Exclusive Poll: 5 Days to Georgia Presidential Primary, Trump Pulls Away from GOP Field; Clinton Buries Sanders; In November Head-To-Head General Election Match-Ups, Republican Nominee, Whomever It Is, Beats Either Democrat; 16 Peach State Electoral Votes Stay Red

SurveyUSA Operations - 02/25/16 05:00 PM

Donald Trump consolidates his gains from Nevada, South Carolina and New Hampshire, and marches through Georgia like Sherman’s army, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for WXIA-TV in Atlanta.

Today, 5 days till votes are counted and with many GA ballots already returned, it’s Trump 45% (1 point less than the 46% Trump got in Nevada), Marco Rubio 19%, Ted Cruz 16%, others further back.

Trump is backed by 51% of “strong Republicans,” 47% of conservatives and 46% of moderates. He is backed by 57% of voters with a high-school education, 52% of voters earning less than $40,000 a year, 49% of seniors.

Rubio runs strongest among affluent Republican primary voters and voters in greater Atlanta, but Rubio does not exceed the 25% support level in any voter demographic, so it will be hard for him to catch Trump, barring something completely unforeseen.

Cruz runs strongest among Republican primary voters who are “very conservative” and who are “falling behind” financially. Cruz does not reach 30% support in any demographic group — including evangelical Christians, where Trump beats Cruz 2:1, and including members of the Tea Party, where Trump beats Cruz 5:2.

In the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton defeats Bernie Sanders 66% to 27%. Though Sanders and Clinton run almost even among GA’s white Democratic primary voters, Clinton leads 4:1 among both African Americans and Hispanics. Though Sanders makes a show of it among “very liberal” voters, drawing to within 3 points of Clinton, Clinton is at 65% among moderates and at 73% among conservative Democrats.

Looking ahead to November, Trump and Rubio run slightly stronger than Cruz, but in every case, Republicans win the state in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups. “Today” it’s:

* Trump 50%, Clinton 41% — a 9-point Republican advantage.
* Trump 49%, Sanders 41% — an 8-point Republican advantage.
* Rubio 50%, Clinton 43% — a 7-point Republican advantage.
* Rubio 49%, Sanders 41% — an 8-point Republican advantage.
* Cruz 49%, Clinton 42% — a 7-point Republican advantage.
* Cruz 48%, Sanders 42% — a 6-point Republican advantage.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,650 Georgia adults 02/22/16 through 02/23/16. Approximately half of the interviews were completed before the results of the Nevada Republican caucuses were known, the other half after. Of the adults interviewed, 1,454 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 1,261 voters who were likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election, 684 voters who had either already voted in the Republican presidential primary or who were certain to do so before the deadline, and 501 voters who had already voted in the Democratic presidential primary or who were certain to do so before the deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (53% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (47% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. In 2012, Mitt Romney defeated Barack Obama by 8 percentage points to capture Georgia’s 16 electoral college votes with 53% of the ballots cast.

1 Week to TX Presidential Primary, Trump and Cruz Tied, Rubio in 3rd Place with Half as Much Support; Clinton Laps Sanders; State Divided on Which President Should Nominate the Next Supreme Court Justice

SurveyUSA Operations - 02/24/16 10:06 PM

In his home state of Texas, US Senator Ted Cruz cannot shake businessman Donald Trump and his New York values, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WFAA-TV in Dallas and Texas TEGNA. Cruz’s best shot at a Super Tuesday win looks at this hour like he may do no better than a draw. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton defeats Bernie Sanders 2:1.

In the Republican Primary, it’s Cruz 32%, Trump 32%, Marco Rubio 17%, others further back.

Cruz narrowly leads Trump among Texas’s Hispanic/Latino population, 34% to 27%. Cruz materially leads Trump among Texas’s evangelicals, 42% to 28%. Cruz overwhelmingly leads Trump among those who are members of the Tea Party, 62% to 21%. Cruz leads by 11 points in West Texas, which includes El Paso, Midland and 88 surrounding counties, and by a nominal 3 points in East Texas, which includes Houston and 60 surrounding counties. Cruz leads by 20 points among “very conservative” primary voters.

Cruz overpowers Trump among Texas Republican primary voters who in 2012 voted for Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich. Trump leads among voters who in 2012 backed Mitt Romney or Ron Paul.

Trump leads by 16 points among “moderates” and by 14 points among non-evangelical voters. Trump leads in North Texas, which includes Dallas and 43 surrounding counties, and Trump leads among the least educated Republican primary voters. Trump leads among the most affluent Texans, but Cruz leads among middle-income primary voters. In Central TX, which includes Austin, San Antonio, and 28 surrounding counties, the two candidates run effectively even.

How close are Trump and Cruz at this hour?

Among “Strong Republicans,” Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.
Among “Republicans,” Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.
Among men, Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.
Among women, Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.
Among younger voters, Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.
Among older voters, Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.
Among gun owners, Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.
Among non-gun owners, Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.
Among college-educated voters, Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.

In the Democratic Primary, it’s Clinton 61%, Sanders 32%. Sanders is backed by 58% of the youngest voters, but Clinton is backed by 70% of middle-aged voters and 82% of seniors. Clinton leads Sanders 4:1 among black voters and Clinton leads Sanders by 40 points among Hispanic voters.

Sanders draws near to Clinton, but still trails, among Democratic primary voters who say they are “falling behind” financially. But Clinton overpowers among voters who say they are “doing well” financially or “just getting by.”

Of those Democratic primary voters who voted for Clinton in 2008, 86% stick with her in 2016. Among Democratic primary voters who voted for Barack Obama in 2008, Clinton leads Sanders 58% to 33%. Clinton polls at or above 60% in North TX, East TX, Central TX and South TX. Sanders comes close to Clinton in West TX, but still trails her there 48% to 42%.

Texas likely voters are split on whether the current President of the United States or the next President should appoint the next Justice for the Supreme Court. Of those Republican primary voters who say the current President should appoint the next Justice, Trump and Rubio lead, each with 27% of the vote. Of those Republican primary voters who say the next President should appoint the Justice, Cruz narrowly leads Trump, 36% to 33%.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,750 adults from the state of Texas in the respondent’s choice of Spanish or English 02/21/16 through 02/22/16. Interviews were completed after the results of the South Carolina Republican Primary were known, but before the results of the Nevada Republican caucuses were known. Of the 1,750 Texas adults, 1,531 were registered to vote in Texas. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 1,293 as likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election for president, 645 who had either already voted in the Texas Republican primary or were certain to do so on or before 03/01/16, and 569 who had either already voted in the Texas Democratic primary or were certain to do so on or before 03/01/16. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In a Trump vs Clinton Presidential Election, 4 in 10 Voters Will Hold Their Nose When Voting; Trump’s Support Comes Disproportionately from Regular Viewers of ‘The Apprentice’ TV Show

SurveyUSA Operations - 02/24/16 03:42 PM

Donald Trump stinks. But so does Hillary Clinton. These are the findings of a brand new SurveyUSA poll of 1,357 likely voters nationwide.

Clinton edges Trump 48% to 45% in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup “today.”

But the numbers tell an even better story:

19% of voters say they will “hold their nose” when they vote for Clinton. This compares to 29% who say they will vote for Clinton “enthusiastically.”
21% of voters say they will “hold their nose” when they vote for Trump. This compares to 24% who say they will vote for Trump “enthusiastically.”

42% of Republicans and 41% of independents who lean Republican say Trump smells bad, but not as bad as Clinton. This compares to 27% of Democrats and 43% of independents who lean Democratic who say Clinton smells bad, but not as bad as Trump. Young voters are 3 times more likely to hold their nose when voting Clinton as seniors.

African Americans (58%), “very liberal” voters (59%) and “strong Democrats” (70%) are the most likely to support Clinton enthusiastically. “Strong Republicans” (63%) are the most likely to support Trump enthusiastically. Clinton leads by 16 points among independents. Clinton leads by 18 points among moderates.

Among voters who say the current president should appoint the next Supreme Court justice, Clinton leads 70% to 21%. Among voters who say the next president should fill the vacant Supreme Court seat, Trump leads 74% to 19%.

Among voters who say they are “doing well” financially, Clinton leads 50% to 45%. Among voters who say they are “just getting by” financially, the candidates run even. Among voters who say they are “falling behind” financially, Clinton leads 51% to 42%.

Trump Support Correlates with Viewership of ‘The Apprentice’:

Trump runs 20 points stronger among voters who watched “The Apprentice” TV show “almost always” when Trump was the host, compared to voters who “almost never” watched “The Apprentice.” Among viewers who almost always watched the show when Trump was the host, Trump leads Clinton by 24 points, 58% to 34%. Among voters who almost never watched “The Apprentice” when Trump was host, Clinton leads Trump by 15 points, 53% to 38%. While there is nothing counter-intuitive about these findings, they are the first mathematical measure of the extent to which Trump has been able to cash-in on his celebrity.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,500 adults from the 50 United States 02/22/16 through 02/23/16. Interviews were completed after the results of the South Carolina Republican primary were known but before results of the Nevada Republican caucuses were known. Of the adults, SurveyUSA identified 1,357 as likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election for president. This research was conducted 100% online.

In North Carolina US Senate Primary, Republican Burr and Democrat Ross Positioned for Comfortable Wins; Burr 8 Points Atop Ross in General Election Matchup Today, But Supreme Court Confirmation Could Impact

SurveyUSA Operations - 02/20/16 09:47 AM

2 weeks till primary voting begins in North Carolina and 4 weeks until primary votes are counted, Incumbent Republican Richard Burr and Democrat Deborah Ross appear poised to coast to victory, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for Time Warner Cable North Carolina. The Republican holds a narrow advantage today in a hypothetical general election matchup, but national events could influence the NC Senate outcome by a little or a lot.

In the Republican primary, Burr leads Greg Brannon 3:1 … 45% to 14%. Other challengers are in single digits. 30% are undecided or not focused on the contest.

In the Democratic primary, Ross leads 3 challengers by 4:1 or more. But: a majority, 55% are undecided or not focused on the contest at this hour. In the unlikely event that Ross does not reach 40% on 03/15/16, a May runoff could be necessary.

Among Republican primary voters, Burr polls above 50% among seniors, voters in Southern NC, Strong Republicans and Very Conservative voters. Among Democratic primary voters, Ross runs strong among well-educated voters, non-Evangelicals, among voters in Southern NC, and among voters who name health care as the most important issue in the campaign. Among all NC voters, Burr has a Minus 7 Net Job Approval: 34% of NC voters approve of the job Burr is doing as Senator; 41% disapprove. (By contrast, fellow U.S. Senator Thom Tillis, who is not up for re-election in 2016, has a Minus 11 Net Job Approval: 33% of voters approve of the job Tillis is doing as Senator, 44% disapprove.)

In a hypothetical general election matchup today, Republican Burr defeats Democrat Ross by 8 points, 45% to 37%. Burr leads by 22 points among white voters. Ross leads by 38 points among black voters. Burr leads by 33 points among voters with a high-school education. Ross leads narrowly among voters with a 4-year college degree. Burr leads by 13 points among men, by 4 points among women. Burr leads by 20 points in Southern NC, by 14 points in greater Charlotte and by 10 points in greater Greensboro. Ross leads by 6 points in greater Raleigh.

Caveat: Burr was quick to signal his support for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s statement that the US Senate should not hold confirmation hearings on a Supreme Court appointment made by Democratic President Barack Obama. The Democratic party and/or newly formed Super PACs may sink significant national dollars into the NC Senate race in an attempt to flip Burr’s seat from Red to Blue, in the Democratic hope of capturing 50 US Senate seats. Much may change in this contest between today and November.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,650 NC adults after the New Hampshire primary, between 02/14/16 and 02/16/16. Of the adults, 1,444 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 437 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the Republican primary, 449 were identified as likely to vote in the Democratic primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (62% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (38% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

1 Month To North Carolina Gubernatorial Primary, Incumbent Republican McCrory and Democrat Cooper Both Lead Party Challengers; In Head-to-Head November Matchup, McCrory, Backed by Whites, Evangelicals & Very Conservative Voters, Runs 3 Pts Ahead of Cooper

SurveyUSA Operations - 02/18/16 09:22 PM

2 weeks till voting begins in the North Carolina primary for Governor, neither party’s primary nomination is closely contested, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for Time Warner Cable News North Carolina. But the November general election may go to the wire.

In the GOP primary, incumbent Pat McCrory leads Robert Brawley 67% to 17%. 16% are undecided or not focused on the contest.
In the Democratic primary, Roy Cooper leads Ken Spaulding 50% to 21%. 29% are undecided or not focused on the contest.

McCrory, elected Governor in 2012, polls in the Republican primary above 60% among men, women, voters of all ages, whites, voters of all income levels and voters of all education levels. McCrory will coast to an easy 03/15/16 win, barring something extraordinary.

Cooper polls in the Democratic primary at or above 50% among men and women, voters age 50+, whites, Strong Democrats and liberals. Cooper is disproportionately favored in greater Greensboro and greater Raleigh. He polls less well, but still leads, in greater Charlotte and in Southern NC. Cooper is an overwhelming favorite at this hour.

Among all NC voters, McCrory has a Minus 4 Net Job Approval: 42% of voters approve of the job McCrory is doing as Governor; 46% disapprove.

In November’s highly anticipated Gubernatorial duel, McCrory leads Cooper by a nominal 3 points, 45% to 42%, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. Cooper leads by 46 points among African American voters, but that is not enough to make up for the 16-point advantage the sitting Governor has among white voters. McCrory leads in Southern NC by 13 points, in greater Charlotte by 8 points and in greater Greensboro by 9 points. Cooper leads in greater Raleigh by 13 points.

McCrory leads 2:1 among evangelical voters, and leads by 10 points among men. Cooper leads by 4 points among women. To win, Cooper must do better than the 40% support he has among men, and he must make inroads among white voters. McCrory leads by 19 points among high-school educated voters. Cooper leads in single digits among the poorest and wealthiest North Carolinians. Cooper leads by 3 points among moderates and by 8 points among independents.

All NC voters (Democrat, Republican or unaffiliated) will have a chance to vote 03/15/16 on a $2 billion bond issue known as Connect NC. At this hour, “Yes” leads “No” 43% to 19%. But: opposition to ballot measures increases as election day approaches (in all geographies, not just NC), and this “Yes” lead, though by more than 2:1, should not be considered a “lock.” Strong Republicans oppose the measure, which would finance higher education construction, parks, safety, recreation, and water-sewer infrastructure. Strong Democrats back the measure 7:1.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,650 NC adults after the New Hampshire primary, between 02/14/16 and 02/16/16. Of the adults, 1,444 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 437 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the Republican primary, 449 were identified as likely to vote in the Democratic primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (62% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (38% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

1 Month to NC Presidential Primary, Trump Atop Rubio and Cruz; Clinton Well Ahead of Sanders; General Election Head-To-Head Matchups Favor Republicans if Clinton is the Democratic Nominee

SurveyUSA Operations - 02/17/16 09:15 PM

2 weeks till voting begins in the North Carolina presidential primary and 4 weeks until votes are counted, Donald Trump remains the Republican front-runner, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for Time Warner Cable News North Carolina. But: By the time North Carolina’s primary ballots are counted 03/15/16, Trump may be the only Republican left in the race, Trump may have splintered off to launch a 3rd-party bid for the White House, or any no-scenario-too-wild permutation in between.

Today, 02/17/16, Trump, at 36%, leads Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, who tie for 2nd place at 18%. John Kasich, in 5th place at 7%, and Jeb Bush, in 6th place at 5%, finish behind Ben Carson, whose campaign is sputtering but who finishes 4th at 10%. Trump’s 36% in North Carolina is similar to the 35% of the vote he received in last week’s New Hampshire primary, higher than the 24% Trump received in Iowa. Two thirds of the interviews for this survey were completed before George W. Bush campaigned in neighboring South Carolina for his brother Jeb; one third of the interviews were completed after Bush’s appearance.

Trump’s NC primary support grows from 32% among “very conservative” voters to 37% among “conservative” voters to 40% among “moderate” voters. Even though Cruz’s support is disproportionately “very conservative,” Trump edges Cruz in this key demographic. And: Cruz trails Trump (though Cruz edges Rubio) among North Carolina’s evangelical voters. Trump leads Rubio by 17 points among “Strong Republicans.” Trump leads Rubio by 10 points among “Independents who Lean Republican.” Trump leads his nearest challenger by more than 2:1 among high-school educated voters and by 4:1 among voters earning less than $40,000 a year.

Trump is at 47% in Southern NC and at 28% in greater Raleigh. Cruz and Rubio are both weak in greater Greensboro. Cruz is also weak in Southern NC. Trump is at 41% among voters who have lived in NC more than 20 years.

Among Republican primary voters who say the economy is the most important issue in the campaign, Trump leads Rubio by 15 points. Among voters who say health care is the most important issue, Trump leads Cruz by 29 points. Among voters who say that terrorism is the most important issue, Trump leads Rubio by 8 points.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 51% to 36%. Sanders leads by a nominal 3 points among white voters. Clinton’s entire primary lead comes from African Americans, where she out-polls Sanders at this hour by 45 points. Clinton’s support is disproportionately old. Sanders support is disproportionately young. Clinton runs 21 points better than Sanders among NC Democratic women.

“Very Liberal” voters back Sanders. “Liberal,” “Moderate” and “Conservative” voters back Clinton. Clinton runs strongest among middle-income voters. Sanders leads Clinton among voters who have some college education but who have not gotten a 4-year college degree. But Clinton clobbers Sanders among Democrats with a high-school education.

When Hillary Clinton is paired against the leading 3 Republicans in hypothetical head-to-head November matchups, she loses. Among all NC likely general election voters, it’s:

Rubio 49%, Clinton 42%.
Cruz 48%, Clinton 43%.
Trump 45%, Clinton 43%.

When Bernie Sanders is paired against the leading 3 Republicans in hypothetical head-to-head November matchups, Sanders outperforms Clinton:

Sanders 46%, Cruz 42%.
Sanders 45%, Rubio 44%.
Sanders 44%, Trump 44%.

President Barack Obama’s approval rating at this hour, among all NC registered voters, is Minus 11. 42% of voters approve of the job Obama is doing. 53% disapprove.

Caveats: Much will happen between today and 03/15/16 that could affect this presidential primary polling. More than 2 dozen states hold primaries or caucuses between today and 03/15/16, each of which contests may give momentum to, or suck oxygen from, a given candidate. Republicans may drop out of the race. Those who drop out may throw their support behind one of the remaining candidates. The campaign may become less civil, if such a thing is possible, or perhaps each of the two parties coalesce behind a single candidate by the time Tarheel voters weigh in.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,650 NC adults after the New Hampshire primary, between 02/14/16 and 02/16/16. Of the adults, 1,444 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 437 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary, 449 were identified as likely to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

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