Is Nathan Deal going to be re-elected as Georgia’s Governor? We can’t tell you that. Is Michelle Nunn going to “take away” Saxby Chambliss’ US Senate Seat from the Republican Party? We can’t tell you that either. Which is pretty remarkable given how close we are to Election Day.
What we can tell you is that the latest exclusive weekly tracking poll for WXIA-TV in Atlanta continues to show 2 top-of-ticket contests that ever-so-slightly ebb and flow, and remain too-close-to-call. A runoff-election for one or both contests is possible, but by no means certain.
The brand-new numbers, collected by SurveyUSA, find Democrat Nunn at 46%, Republican David Perdue at 44%, in the nationally significant contest for Senator — results that are within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. And the brand-new numbers show incumbent Republican Deal at 45%, and Democratic challenger Jason Carter at 43%, in the contest for Governor of GA, a nominal 2-point Republican advantage that may or may not turn out to be statistically significant.
In the Senate race, poll-on-poll, week-on-week, Nunn is down 2 points, Perdue is down 1 point. Undecided is up 3 points. Perdue has been steadily, though gradually, declining over the past 6 WXIA-TV tracking polls, going back to August, when he polled at 50%. Nunn has been not-so-consistently gaining ground. It is unclear if the 48% she reached last week is a peak or a plateau. Wildcard Libertarian Amanda Swafford polls at 4% today, but because her support is so young, and because she receives just 1% among respondents who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, it is hard to handicap just how much of a spoiler role she will play. Among women, Perdue’s support is down from a high of 44% to today 38%. Among Independents, Perdue at one point led 2:1, but now is tied, 40% to 40%. On the other hand, among voters who have already returned a ballot, Perdue has a 53% to 43% advantage. For Nunn to win, she will need to overcome those “banked” Republican votes between now and Election Day. No down-ballot Democrat gets more than 44% of the vote.
In the Governor race, poll-on-poll, week-on-week, Deal is down 1 point, Carter is down 3 points. Libertarian Andrew Hunt gets 4%, siphoning votes from across the political spectrum. 8% are undecided. In greater Atlanta, Carter goes from 59% last week to 49% this week. That alone could account for the Democratic slippage observed at the highest level. If neither candidate gets to 50%, state law requires a runoff.
* For School Superintendent, Republican Richard Woods is at 46% today, Democrat Valarie Wilson is at 44%.
* For Attorney General, Republican Sam Olens leads Democrat Greg Hecht, 47% to 40%.
* For Lieutenant Governor, Republican Casey Cagle today is 8 points ahead of Democrat Connie Stokes, 48% to 40%.
* For Secretary of State, Republican Brian Kemp today leads Democrat Doreen Carter 49% to 40%.
Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 state of GA adults 10/17/14 through 10/20/14. Of the adults, 653 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 606 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (70% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (30% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. The US Senate seat is open.