48 Hours Till Early Voting Begins in Kansas, No Evident Erosion in Trump Support; Republican Moran Safe
5 weeks ago, riding high nationally, Donald Trump led Hillary Clinton by 12 points in the reliably red state of Kansas. Today, riding low, Trump leads Clinton by 11 points, effectively unchanged, as Sunflower State voters continue to see the Republican as the better choice for President, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for KSN-TV in Wichita.
Trump is at 47%, Clinton is at 36%, Libertarian Gary Johnson is at 7% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein is at 2% today, 48 hours until early voting in Kansas begins. Any misgivings about Trump that voters have are expressed this way: 5 weeks ago, 57% of Trump voters said they were voting “for Trump,” compared to 38% who said they were voting “against Clinton.” Today, 51% are voting “for Trump,” a decline of 6 percentage points; 47% say they are voting “against Clinton,” an increase of 9 percentage points. The opposite is true of Clinton: 5 weeks ago, 55% of Clinton supporters said they were voting “for Clinton,” compared to 43% who were voting “against Trump.” Today, 64% of Clinton backers are voting “for Clinton,” an increase of 9 percentage points; 34% are voting “against Trump,” a decrease of 8 percentage points. 41% of Trump supporters today have reservations about Trump. 44% of Clinton supporters today have reservations about Clinton.
Kansas voters say the economy is the most important issue in 2016. Of voters focused on the economy, Trump leads Clinton by 15 points. Among voters who say terrorism is the most important issue, Trump leads Clinton by 25 points. Among voters who say immigration is the most important issue, Trump leads Clinton by 67 points.
Though Clinton performs better among women than men, she still trails Trump among women in Kansas. Trump leads by 6 points among all women, which is a blend of him leading by 5 points among suburban women and leading by 23 points among rural women.
In the contest for United States Senator from Kansas, incumbent Republican Jerry Moran is well positioned at this hour for a second term, 25 points ahead of Democratic challenger Patrick Wiesner. 5 weeks ago, Moran led Wiesner 50% to 34%, today, 56% to 31%. Libertarian Robert Garrard is at 5% today. In rural Kansas, Moran leads by 43 points. Among seniors, Moran leads by 44 points. Among evangelical voters, Moran leads by 59 points.
Statewide Favorability Ratings:
* Democratic President Barack Obama is viewed extremely favorably by 19% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 42%.
* Republican Governor Sam Brownback is viewed extremely favorably by 5% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 49%.
* Republican Senator Pat Roberts is viewed extremely favorably by 9% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 20%.
* Moran is viewed extremely favorably by 11% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 12%.
Context and Methodology:
SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Kansas adults 10/11/16 through 10/15/16. Of the adults, 675 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 601 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 election for President, 549 were determined to be likely to vote in the election for U.S. Senator. 3% of voters interviewed for this survey said they almost always vote in Presidential elections, but would not vote in 2016 because they did not like any of the candidates on the ballot. An offsetting 4% of voters said they almost never vote in Presidential elections but would vote in 2016 because they were drawn to one of this year’s candidates. All of the interviews for this survey were conducted after the 2nd Presidential debate on 10/09/16, but during a week when a number of women came forward with allegation of possible sexual misconduct by Trump, and at a time when Trump, claiming to be newly “unshackled,” spoke less guardedly. It is unclear whether additional credible allegations will surface against Trump, or whether the allegations made thus far will be discredited and the tone and tenor of the campaign discourse will become less rancorous. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (62% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (38% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Kansas has 6 electoral votes in 2016. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried the state by 22 points as Obama won a 2nd term. In 2008, John McCain carried the state by 15 points as Obama won his 1st term. In 2004, George W Bush carried KS by 25 points over John Kerry on Bush’s way to a 2nd term. In 2000, Bush carried KS by 21 points. Early voting begins in 48 hours, on Wednesday 10/19/16.