Loading...

Californians React to VP Debate: Independents Split, Moderates See Biden as Winner, But “Vote Swtichers” 3:2 Like Romney-Ryan

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/12/12 07:04 AM

1,000 California adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA immediately following tonight’s Vice Presidential debate. Of the adults, 701 watched the debate. Results of debate watchers:

48% say Joe Biden clearly won the debate.
41% say Paul Ryan clearly won the debate.
10% say there was no clear winner.

In a “blue” state such as California, it is not surprising to find that more Democrats watched the debate than did Republicans. Looking just at the reaction of Independent voters, Biden and Ryan battle to an effective draw: 44% Biden, 42% Ryan. Looking just a moderates, Biden is seen as the winner, 50% to 38%.

22% say they changed which candidate for President they support as a result of the debate. Of those who tell SurveyUSA they changed their mind:

30% switched from the Obama ticket to the Romney ticket.
29% switched from undecided to the Romney ticket.
A total of 59% switched to the Romney ticket.

20% switched from the Romney ticket to the Obama ticket.
20% switched from undecided to the Obama ticket.
A total of 40% switched to the Obama ticket.

53% say Biden is ready to be President, if needed.
46% say Ryan is ready to be President, if needed.

CA Still Safely Blue, But Romney Slices 8 Points Off Obama’s Lead After Romney’s Strong First Debate Performance

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/11/12 05:26 PM

The effects of President Barack Obama’s falter in the first debate with Mitt Romney are not just being felt in battleground states, according to SurveyUSA’s latest tracking poll of California, conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. Obama had led by 22 points in a SurveyUSA tracking poll released 4 weeks ago. Obama leads by 14 points today, an 8-point improvement for Romney. At the same time, the Dianne Feinstein contest for United States Senate remains largely unchanged, month-on-month, suggesting that the erosion in Democratic support is not across-the-board, but contained to Obama. Unclear is whether the Obama erosion is fleeting or long-lasting.

Obama 53%, Romney 39%, in today’s numbers. Obama carried California by 24 points in 2008, so today Obama is running 10 points weaker than he ran 4 years ago, 8 points weaker than he ran 4 weeks ago. Among Independents, Obama led by 14 in September, trails by 9 in October, a 23-point right turn among the most coveted voters. One explanation: the number of Romney supporters who tell SurveyUSA they are voting “for Mitt Romney” as opposed to “against Barack Obama” is way up, month on month.

Feinstein 54%, Republican Elizabeth Emken 35%, in today’s numbers, largely unchanged from SurveyUSA’s last measurement in CA, when Emken trailed incumbent Feinstein by 18 points.

SurveyUSA asked about Proposition 30 in 2 different ways for this release. First, consistent with last month, SurveyUSA told voters very little about the Proposition and measured “certain” support. This approach is designed to identify the most-committed backers and detractors of a proposition, and to measure public awareness. Using this approach, 38% of voters tell SurveyUSA they are “certain” to vote No on Proposition 30. 33% of voters tell SurveyUSA they are “certain” to vote Yes on Proposition 30. 29% of voters are “not certain” how they will vote, which is largely unchanged from a month ago. This approach to measuring ballot support is comparable to the “strongly support” and “strongly oppose” measurement that is taken by others pollsters who are working on Proposition 30. Separately, SurveyUSA read to voters a complete description of Proposition 30, including the 100 words that appear on the ballot. By this measure, Yes on 30 leads No, 45% to 39%, with 16% undecided. This measurement includes “soft” support as well as “hard” support. The two measurements are not inconsistent: among the most committed, No narrowly leads Yes. Among a larger group of voters, including those with soft support, Yes narrowly leads No. Neither passage nor rejection of 30 is assured at this hour.

On Proposition 34, which would repeal the death penalty, 32% are certain to vote Yes, 48% are certain to vote No, unchanged from a month ago. Whites, a majority of pro-life voters, and a majority of voters in Greater Los Angeles and the Central Valley oppose the repeal. Only the Bay Area and liberals support the repeal.

On Proposition 36 , which would revise the 3-strikes law, 44% are certain to vote Yes, 22% are certain to vote No, unchanged from a month ago. Hispanics, blacks, Democrats, and liberals disproportionately support. Republicans, conservatives and Asians disproportionately oppose.

On Proposition 37 , about the labeling on genetically modified food, 39% are certain to vote Yes, 30% are certain to vote No, 31% are not certain. This is a significant change from a month ago, when the measure was supported 51% to 16%. Republicans had supported the measure by 29 points, now oppose the measure by 7 points, a 36-point swing to No. Men had supported the measure by 35 points, now support by 2 points, a 33-point swing to No.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 California adults 10/07/12 through 10/09/12. Of the adults, 617 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 539 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, Jump Ball Between 1st-Term Incumbent Republican Cravaack and DFL Challenger Nolan

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/10/12 11:55 PM

In an election for the U.S. House of Representatives today from Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, incumbent Republican Chip Cravaack and former Congressman Rick Nolan are eyeball-to-eyeball in a contest too-close-to-call, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities. Nolan is at 46%, Cravaack is at 45% in today’s results.

The 20-point gender gap and 26-point age gap are significant: Nolan leads by 10 among women. Cravaack leads by 10 among men. Cravaack leads by 15 points among voters under age 50. Nolan leads by 11 points among voters age 50+. Independents break 5:3 Republican. Moderates break 2:1 Democrat. Nolan has a 17-point lead in union households. Cravaack has a 9-point lead in non-union households. Of Barack Obama voters, 88% vote for the DFL candidate for Congress. Of Mitt Romney voters, 89% vote for the Republican for Congress.

By 34% to 31%, Cravaack is seen as stronger on mining issues.
By 41% to 36%, voters say Nolan will do more to protect Medicare.
By 41% to 38%, voters say Cravaack will do more to bring jobs to the district.

Nolan has a Plus 8 Net Favorability rating: 34% of voters see him favorably, compared to 26% who see him unfavorably.
Cravaack has a Plus 5 Net Favorability rating: 38% of voters see him favorably, compared to 33% who see him unfavorably.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 registered voters from Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District 10/07/12 through 10/09/12, using registration-based (voter-list) sample from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 578 were likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were called on their cell phones, by live operators who hand-dialed the phone, qualified the respondent, secured the respondent’s cooperation, asked the questions and remained on the line until the conclusion of the interview.

In Election For Mayor of Portland OR, Hales Increases Lead Over Jefferson, But Many Still Undecided 1 Month Till Votes are Counted

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/10/12 05:47 PM

In an election today, 10/10/12, for Portland Mayor, Charlie Hales gets 37% to Jefferson Smith’s 30%, with 33% of voters undecided, 1 month till votes are counted, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll 3 weeks ago, Hale’s support has jumped among Republicans, where Hales had led by 4, now leads by 25. Hales has doubled his advantage among voters age 50 to 64, where he had led by 14, but now leads by 25.

There is little or no movement on 3 city of Portland ballot measures. On the City Arts Tax ballot measure, 21% are certain to vote Yes today, 22% are certain to vote no. This is effectively unchanged from a month ago, especially given that 58% of voters today are not certain how they will vote on the Arts Tax.

On the Portland School District Bond Measure, Yes leads No 42% to 24% today, almost identical to SurveyUSA’s findings 3 weeks ago. The measure is strongly supported Democrats and Independents, opposed by Republicans.

The Multnomah County Library Taxing District Creation measure leads by 21 points today, which is up slightly from a 17-point lead 3 weeks ago. Republicans oppose. Democrats and Independents support.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 850 Multnomah County adults 10/07/12 through 10/09/12. After filtering questions were applied, 675 likely voters in Multnomah County were identified, of which 513 were also likely voters in the city of Portland. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Incumbent mayor Sam Adams is not seeking a second term.

With Voting Underway In Oh-So-Important Ohio, Romney Nose-to-Nose with Obama

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/09/12 11:00 PM

In an election for Ohio’s 18 vital electoral votes today, 10/09/12, one week after Buckeye voting began and 4 weeks till votes are counted, Barack Obama is at 45% to Mitt Romney’s 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV, NBC4 in Columbus. Obama’s advantage is within the survey’s possible sources of error and may or may not be significant.

“Optimistic” Ohio voters back Obama 4:1. “Worried” Ohio voters back Romney 2:1. “Angry” Ohio voters back Romney 3:1.
Romney leads among voters who are married. Obama leads among voters who are single, divorced or widowed.
Greater Dayton and greater Cincinnati favor Romney. Greater Columbus, greater Toledo and greater Cleveland favor Obama.
Union households break for Obama. Non-union households split.
Evangelicals vote for Romney. Non-evangelicals vote for Obama.
Independents break for Romney. Moderates break for Obama.
Voters who say abortion should be legal in every case vote overwhelmingly for Obama.
Voters who say abortion should be illegal in every case vote overwhelmingly for Romney.
Voters who earn less than $60,000 a year vote for Obama. Voters who earn more than $60,000 a year vote for Romney.
Ohio voters, narrowly, say Romney would do a better job balancing the federal budget.
Ohio voters split on who would do better at keeping America safe.
Ohio voters say Obama is more in touch with the average person.

In an election for United States Senator from Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown defeats Republican Josh Mandel 42% to 38% today. White voters narrowly favor Mandel, the Republican. Brown’s entire advantage comes from African Americans, who vote 6:1 for Brown, the Democrat. Brown leads in greater Cleveland, greater Columbus, and greater Toledo. Mandel leads in greater Cincinnati and greater Dayton.

Brown holds 79% of the Democratic base, compared to Mandel, who holds 73% of the Republican base. Mandel leads by 7 points among Independents, but that is offset by Brown’s 28-point advantage among moderates.

Brown leads by 21 points in union houeholds; non-union households split.
Mandel leads by 12 points among evangelicals.
Brown leads 3:1 among those who say abortion should be legal in all cases. Mandel leads 3:1 among those who say abortion should never be legal.
Brown leads among those earning less than $80,000 a year. Mandel leads among those earning more than $80,000 a year.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 925 Ohio adults 10/05/12 through 10/08/12. Of the adults, 808 had either already returned a ballot or were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to do so before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. As SurveyUSA has found in many geographies, cell-phone and home-phone respondents vote differently. In Ohio: Romney leads by 5 points among home phone respondents. Obama leads by 17 points among cell-phone respondents. When the two groups are proportionally blended, Obama has the nominal 1-point advantage that SurveyUSA reports here.

Even in Solid-Blue California, With More Democrats Watching, Romney Is Clear Winner of 1st Presidential Debate

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/04/12 06:54 AM

Immediately following tonight’s presidential debate between Republican Mitt Romney and Democrat Barack Obama, SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 California adults, of whom 869 watched the debate. California is a ‘Blue’ state and not surprisingly in California, significantly more Democrats watched the debate than Republicans. Given that, it is particularly striking to find:

48% say Romney was the clear winner.
34% say Obama was the clear winner.
18% say there was no clear winner.

Men by 24 points say Romney was the clear winner.
Middle-income viewers by 27 points say Romney was the clear winner.
Only those age 18 to 34 see the debate as a draw. Viewers age 35+ see Romney as the clear winner.
Only African Americans see Obama as a narrow winner. Whites, Hispanics and Asians see Romney as the clear winner.
Even greater San Francisco sees Romney as a narrow winner. Greater Los Angeles, the Central Valley and the Inland Empire all score it for Romney.

Republicans by 78% to 13% say Romney won.
Democrats by 55% to 25% say Obama won.
Independents, the most critical, coveted and arguably most dispassionate group of debate watchers, say by 34 points that Romney is the clear winner.
Moderates, who typically vote 2:1 in favor of Obama, see Romney as the winner by 15 points.

Debate watchers split on who they trust more on the economy, a significant moral victory for Romney in California.
Debate watchers say Obama was not forceful enough.
Debate watchers (disproportionately Democrats) say Romney was too forceful.
Narrowly, debate watchers say Romney had the best one liner.

SurveyUSA’s California research conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KFSN-TV Fresno, and KGTV-TV San Diego.

Is North Carolina the Last Swing State to Still be a Jump Ball? Every Vote Vital as Obama and Romney Build Mirror Coalitions

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/02/12 08:56 PM

In an election for President in North Carolina today, 10/02/12, three weeks till early voting and 5 weeks till ballots are counted, Barack Obama has a 49% to 47% advantage over Mitt Romney, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WRAL-TV in Raleigh. 5 months have gone by since SurveyUSA’s last poll of North Carolina for WRAL-TV, and in those 5 months, little has changed: the race was then, as it is now, too-close-to-call.

Romney leads among males, whites, Evangelicals, older voters, voters in greater Charlotte, voters in greater Greensboro, and middle-income voters.
Obama leads among women, blacks, younger voters, voters in greater Raleigh, college graduates and lower-income voters.
Republican and Democratic voters offset. Independents split. Moderates break for Obama.
Voters who plan to vote on Election Day favor Romney by 12 points. Voters who plan to vote early, in person, favor Obama by 20 points.
Black turnout here is 21%. If African Americans, who vote 7:1 for Obama, turn-out in smaller numbers, Obama will under-perform these poll numbers.

In the open-seat election for Governor of NC, Republican Pat McCrory defeats Democrat Walter Dalton 51% to 39% today. McCrory leads by 23 points among men, by 36 points among whites and by 20 points among Independents.

In the election for Lieutenant Governor, Republican Dan Forest edges Democrat Linda Coleman 46% to 43% today. Voters under age 50 vote Democratic. Voters age 50+ vote Republican. Independents break for the Republican. Forest has majority support in greater Greensboro and has plurality support in greater Charlotte and Southern NC. Coleman leads in greater Raleigh. The Lieutenant Governor’s seat is open; Dalton is running for Governor.

In the election for Superintendent of Public Instruction, incumbent Democrat June Atkinson defeats John Tedesco 47% to 41% today. Atkinson’s 16-point advantage among women overpowers Tedesco’s 5-point advantage among men. Atkinson leads in Raleigh and Southern NC. The contest is tied in Charlotte. Tedesco leads in Greensboro.

4 times over the past 7 months, SurveyUSA for WRAL-TV has asked NC voters whether North Carolina’s economy will, in 1 year, be stronger or weaker. Optimism has grown steadily over the 7 months. In March 2012, 34% said the economy would be stronger in 1 year. Today, 44% say the economy will be stronger in one year. By contrast, the number of voters who say the economy will be weaker in 1 year has steadily declined, from 19% seven months ago to 9% today.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults from the state of NC 09/29/12 through 10/01/12. Of the adults, 641 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 573 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/06/12 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Cell-phone respondents vote dramatically more Democratic in North Carolina than do landline respondents. In the contest for President, Romney leads by 9 points among landline respondents. Obama leads by 30 points among cell-phone respondents. When the two groups are proportionally blended, Obama leads 49% to 47%, as SurveyUSA reports here. The same pattern holds true in the contests for Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Superintendent.

In Minnesota, 8 Weeks Till Votes Are Counted, Obama 10 Points Atop Romney; Marriage Amendment Narrowly Favored; Klobuchar Sails

SurveyUSA Operations - 09/14/12 04:06 PM

8 weeks until votes are counted, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 50% to 40% in the battle for Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes, incumbent DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar is materially ahead in her campaign for re-election to the U.S. Senate, and an amendment to define marriage is narrowly favored to pass, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities.

In this, SurveyUSA’s first poll of Minnesota since the Republican and Democratic conventions, Obama’s lead over Romney has grown from 6 points 6 weeks ago to 10 points today. The 10-point advantage comes largely from women, among whom Obama today leads by 17 points. Romney leads in Southern MN, but Obama leads elsewhere in the state. Obama holds slightly more of the Democratic base than Romney holds of the Republican base, and Independents break ever-so-slightly for Obama. (Among Independents, there has been a 7-point swing to Obama compared to SurveyUSA’s poll 6 weeks ago.) The real tailwind comes from moderates, who break 2:1 for Obama. Romney trails among the rich and the poor, among the educated and the less educated. There is erosion in Romney’s support among middle-income and upper-income voters, compared to 6 weeks ago.

Today’s release is also SurveyUSA’s first poll in Minnesota since Paul Ryan was named Romney’s running mate. 30% of likely voters say Ryan makes them more likely to vote for Romney, but 34% say Ryan makes them more likely to vote for Obama. 35% shrug when asked about Ryan.

An amendment to define marriage in Minnesota as between one man and one woman is today favored to pass 50% to 43%, though all ballot measures are difficult to predict. Today, SurveyUSA finds: Republicans favor the amendment 4:1. Democrats oppose the measure 2:1. Independents split. The less educated you are, the more likely you are to support the amendment. The lower your income, the more likely you are to support the amendment. An odd coalition takes shape, age-wise: voters younger than 35 and older than 64 support the measure. Voters age 35 to 64 split. SurveyUSA has polled on the marriage amendment before, going back to 2011. This is the first poll that used the actual language that will appear on the ballot, instead of a summary of the ballot language; previous SurveyUSA polls are not apples-to-apples comparable with this one.

In the election for U.S. Senator from Minnesota, incumbent DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar remains the overwhelming favorite, leading Republican Kurt Bills 55% to 34%. 6 weeks ago, Klobuchar led by 24 points, today by 21.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults 09/06/12 through 09/09/12. Of them, 627 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 551 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (77% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (23% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Obama leads by 4 points among voters interviewed on their home phone. Obama leads by 25 points among voters not reachable on a home telephone. When the two groups are proportionally combined, Obama leads by the 10 points reported here. In 2008, Obama carried Minnesota by 10 points over John McCain.

In CA, Half of Those Voting “For Mitt Romney” Are Actually Voting “Against Barack Obama”; 5 Ballot Measures Examined

SurveyUSA Operations - 09/13/12 10:35 AM

In an election for President of the United States in California today, 09/12/12, Barack Obama defeats Mitt Romney and cements California’s 55 electoral college votes into the Democratic column, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV in Los Angeles, KPIX-TV in San Francisco, KGTV-TV in San Diego, and KFSN-TV in Fresno. 4 weeks until early voting begins, it’s Obama 57%, Romney 35%. Of those Californians voting “for” Romney, 48% tell SurveyUSA that their vote is really a vote “against Barack Obama” more than it is a vote “for” Mitt Romney. By contrast, of those Californians voting “for” Barack Obama, just 18% say that theirs is a vote “against Mitt Romney.”

Obama is backed by 72% of pro-choice voters, 71% of Bay area voters, 67% of Hispanics, and 67% of young voters.

In an election for United States Senator from California today, incumbent Democrat Dianne Feinstein holds her seat, is comfortably re-elected, and defeats Elizabeth Emken 55% to 37%. Feinstein leads among rich and poor, black and white, the least educated and the most educated, and in every region of the state.

On Proposition 30 , which would raise the sales tax to pay for education and public safety, 34% today are certain to vote Yes, 36% are certain to vote No, 29% are not certain how they will vote. The measure could go either way. Republicans oppose Proposition 30. Democrats support.

On Proposition 33 , about auto insurance, 15% are certain to vote Yes, 13% are certain to vote No, 72% are not certain. Voters are not yet focused on 33. Any outcome is possible.

On Proposition 34, which would repeal the death penalty, 30% are certain to vote Yes, 46% are certain to vote No, 23% are not certain how they will vote. Whites, a majority of pro-life voters, and a majority of voters in Greater Los Angeles and the Central Valley oppose the repeal. Only the Bay Area and liberals support the repeal.

On Proposition 36 , which would revise the 3-strikes law, 43% are certain to vote Yes, 23% are certain to vote No, 34% are not certain. Hispanics, blacks, Democrats, and liberals disproportionately support. Republicans, conservatives and Asians disproportionately oppose.

On Proposition 37 , about the labeling on genetically modified food, 51% are certain to vote Yes, 16% are certain to vote No, 33% are not certain. Young voters disproportionately support. Conservatives disproportionately oppose.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 750 California adults 09/09/12 through 09/11/12. Of the adults, 619 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 524 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (78% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (22% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. In 2008, Obama carried California by 24 points. Today, Obama leads by 22 points.

In Florida, 8 Weeks Out: Obama 4 Points Atop Romney; Nelson 11 Points Atop Mack; Voter Fraud of Greater Concern than Voter Suppression

SurveyUSA Operations - 09/11/12 06:12 PM

In pivotal Florida, Barack Obama comes out of the Democratic National Convention 4 points atop Mitt Romney, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Romney leads among Florida’s white voters, but that lead is erased by Florida’s minorities: Obama leads by 16 points among Cubans, by 36 points among non-Cuban Hispanics, and by 67 points among African Americans.

Romney leads by 5 points among men, but that is trumped by Obama’s 12 point lead among women. Romney leads in Northwest, Northeast and Southwest Florida, but that advantage is overcome by Obama’s strength in Southeast Florida, and Obama’s comparative strong standing in critical Central FL, where Obama today leads by 6. Romney leads among voters age 50+, but Obama leads by even more among voters age 18 to 49. Party affiliation cancels itself out: Romney holds 84% of Republicans, Obama holds 84% of Democrats, Independents split. Obama leads among those earning less than $80,000 a year, Romney leads among those earning more than $80,000 a year.

Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 8 weeks ago, conducted at a time when Obama attack ads about Bain Capital were airing unanswered, there is effectively no change in the race. Then, Obama led by 5 points. Now, Obama leads by 4 points, a nominal 1-point difference. Obama today has a Plus 1 Net Favorability, Romney has a Minus 2 Net Favorability.

In the contest for United States Senator, Democrat Bill Nelson is in dramatically better shape than he was when SurveyUSA last polled the contest 8 weeks ago. Then, Republican Connie Mack led Nelson by 6 points. Today, Nelson leads Mack by 11, a 17-point left turn. The change is particularly dramatic in Central FL, where, 8 weeks ago, Mack led by 5, now trails by 15, a 20-point swing. Among Independents, Mack had led by 4, now trails by 14, an 18-point swing.

Nelson today has a 19-point advantage among women, and leads in every age group. Just 69% of Republicans and 68% of Conservatives support Mack. Nelson has a Plus 7 Net Favorability today, compared to Mack who has a Minus 12 Net Favorability.

When Florida voters are asked whether “voter fraud” or “voter suppression” is a more serious problem in Florida, 45% (disproportionately Republicans and conservatives) say fraud. 33% (disproportionately blacks, Cubans and liberals) say suppression.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 Florida adults 09/07/12 through 09/09/12. Of the adults, 650 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 596 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (76% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (24% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

Copyright 2013 SurveyUSA®, Clifton NJ, all rights reserved. Terms & Conditions.