2 Weeks Till Votes Are Counted in North Carolina, Democrat Hagan Remains in front of Republican Tillis; Libertarian Siphons Key GOP Votes
Every vote is critical for Thom Tillis, desperately trying to claw his way to even in the race for United States Senator from North Carolina. Yet those last few votes that would make this free-spending contest a tie, appear to go to Libertarian Sean Haugh, and not to Tillis, according to new SurveyUSA polling conducted for WRAL-TV in Raleigh.
Today, 2 weeks until votes are counted, Democrat Kay Hagan leads Tillis 46% to 43%. Haugh takes 6%, but he does not take equally. He takes more votes from self-identified Republicans than he does from Democrats. He takes more votes from conservatives than he does from liberals, and he takes more votes from men than from women. Tillis leads by 8 points among seniors, the biggest lead he has in any age group, but here again, Haugh takes more votes among seniors than Haugh takes from any other age group.
None of this is to diminish the advantage Hagan has in poll after poll. That is to her credit, in one of the nation’s most high-profile contests. But offsetting empathy is owed to a Republican challenger, who is consistently Oh-So-Close, and yet Oh-So-Far behind.
At this hour:
* Hagan holds 85% of the Democratic base. 9% of Democrats cross-over.
* Tillis holds 87% of the Republican base. 7% of Republicans cross-over.
* Independents split: 38% back Tillis, 36% back Hagan, 14% back Hough, and 13% are undecided (compared to 5% who are undecided among all likely voters).
* Tillis Holds 79% of conservatives. Hagan holds 84% of liberals. Moderates break 2:1 Democrat, and provide Hagan what breathing room she has.
* Hagan leads by 22 points in greater Raleigh, leads by a couple of points in greater Greensboro, but trails Tillis in greater Charlotte and in Southern/Coastal NC.
* Voters with a 4-year college degree break 5:4 Democrat. Voters with some college, but short of a degree, break 5:4 Republican.
* Overwhelmingly, voters say that the economy is the most important issue when casting their ballot, and on that issue, Tillis leads 54% to 37%.
* But Hagan leads on health care, and Hagan leads overwhelmingly on education.
What can Tillis hold on to? Of voters who say they may change their mind between now and Election Day, twice as many are Hagan supporters as are Tillis supporters.
Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 adults from the state of North Carolina 10/16/14 through 10/20/14. Of the adults, 691 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 568 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/04/14 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a survey on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Tillis leads by 1 point among landline respondents. Hagan leads by 16 points among cell-phone respondents.