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11 Weeks Till GA Votes are Counted, Republicans Positioned to ‘Run the Table’ in Top 6 Statewide Contests; Will Libertarians Force Runoffs?

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 61 days ago

2 months till early voting begins and 11 weeks until votes are counted, Georgia Republicans lead in races for US Senator, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General and School Superintendent, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WXIA-TV, the Gannett-owned station in Atlanta. In Georgia, a winning candidate needs 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff, which this election would be 12/02/14 for statewide contests and 01/06/15 for the US Senate contest.

In an election today for US Senator, to fill an open seat vacated by Saxby Chambliss, Republican David Perdue defeats Democrat Michelle Nunn 50% to 41%. (Michelle is Sam Nunn’s daughter.) Libertarian Amanda Swafford gets 3% today. 6% are undecided. Perdue’s lead comes entirely from men, where he leads by 19 points. Atlanta votes Democratic. Northwest GA votes 2:1 Republican. South and East GA votes 5:4 Republican. The contest has national ramifications; Republicans need to hold the seat to have a chance to capture control of the U.S. Senate in the next Congress.

In an election today for Governor, incumbent Republican Nathan Deal defeats Democratic challenger Jason Carter 48% to 39%. (Jason is the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter.) Libertarian Andrew Hunt gets 4% today. 8% are undecided. Deal holds 83% of the Republican base. Carter holds 82% of the Democratic base. Independents break sharply Republican. Moderates provide some but not presently enough support for Carter to catch Deal. Libertarian Hunt takes more votes from the Republican Deal than he does from the Democrat Carter.

In an election today for Lieutenant Governor, incumbent Republican Casey Cagle defeats Democratic challenger Connie Stokes, 52% to 36%. Cagle holds 90% of the Republican base.

In an election today for Secretary of State, incumbent Republican Brian Kemp defeats Democratic challenger Doreen Carter 53% to 36%. Carter trails by 9 points among women.

In an election today for Attorney General, incumbent Republican Sam Olens defeats Democratic challenger Greg Hecht, 49% to 36%. Hecht has a 5-point advantage among lower-income voters, but he is overpowered by Olens among middle-income and upper-income voters.

In an election today for State School Superintendent, Republican Richard Woods defeats Democrat Valarie Wilson 51% to 39%. Among voters who support the “Common Core” school standards, the Democrat Wilson leads 2:1. Among those who oppose Common Core, the Republican Woods leads 6:1.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,100 state of Georgia adults 08/14/14 through 08/17/14. Of the adults, 953 were registered to vote. Of those registered to vote, 560 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone, or other portable device.

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 74 days ago

Florida Teeter-Totter Tips Back Towards Scott, As News Novelty of Crist’s Running Mate Announcement Wears Off

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 75 days ago

3 months till votes are counted in the 2014 election for Governor of Florida, incumbent Republican Rick Scott is a nominal 2 points atop Democratic challenger Charlie Crist, according to WFLA-TV’s latest tracking poll, conducted by SurveyUSA.

Scott is at 45% today, Crist is at 43%. Compared to a SurveyUSA WFLA-TV tracking poll 2 weeks ago, which was conducted during a time of positive news coverage for Crist, Scott is up 5, Crist is down 3.

Scott reaches the 50% support level among male voters today, the 1st time he has done so in 9 tracking polls going back to 04/15/14. Scott reaches 54% support among seniors, his highest support to date among voters age 65+. Independents today prefer Scott by 12 points. Moderates today prefer Crist by 21 points. Scott holds 81% of Republicans, 80% of conservatives. Crist holds 78% of Democrats, 76% of liberals.

Looking ahead to the election for President in the state of Florida in 2016, in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups today: Hillary Clinton defeats Rick Perry 50% to 40%. Perry and Joe Biden duel to an effective draw, 44% to 43%.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 state of Florida adults 07/31/14 through 08/04/14. Of the adults, 859 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 576 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (75% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or electronic device.

Pendulum in KY Senate Race Swings Ever-So-Slightly To McConnell — With Or Without Libertarian Patterson on the Ballot

SurveyUSA Operations - 81 days ago

Kentucky icon Mitch McConnell leads Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes by a nominal 2 points today, both in a head-to-head contest that excludes Libertarian David Patterson, and in a 3-way contest that explicitly includes Patterson. In a 2-person race, it’s McConnell 47%, Grimes 45%. In a 3-person race, it’s McConnell 41%, Grimes 39%, Patterson 7%.

This latest Bluegrass Poll, conducted for the Louisville Courier-Journal, the Lexington Herald-Leader, WHAS-TV and WKYT-TV, the 3rd Bluegrass Poll of 2014, is the most favorable yet to the U.S. Senate Minority Leader. A survey in February showed Grimes ahead by 4 points. A survey in May showed Grimes ahead by a nominal 1 point. Neither of the previous 2 polls explicitly mentioned the Libertarian candidate. It is not fair to say, from these numbers, that Patterson hurts one candidate more than the other. But it is fair to say that Patterson throws a wrench into the mix: with his name included in the poll question, the number of undecided voters increases from 8% to 13%. Beyond the number who say they are undecided, 1 in 4 voters say they might change their mind before the 11/04/14 election.

McConnell’s favorability is up, from 29% ten weeks ago to 36% today. In fact, McConnell’s favorability today is exactly the same as Grimes’s, 36%. The difference is: McConnell’s unfavorability today is 10 percentage points higher than Grimes, 43% to 33%. As a point of reference, President Barack Obama’s favorability number in Kentucky is 28% today.

3 key issues highlight how Kentucky sees the candidates: Voters by a narrow margin say that McConnell will do a better job balancing the state’s coal interests with the need for cleaner air. Voters by a narrow margin say that Grimes will do a better at creating jobs. Voters split evenly on which candidate will keep Medicare stable.

Kentucky by 48% to 40% says that Republicans would do a better job than Democrats controlling the U.S. Senate. Whether McConnell is re-elected to a 6th term will go a long way toward determining which party does have control of the Senate in the next Congress.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Kentucky adults 07/18/14 through 07/23/14. Of the adults, 714 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 604 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 election for U.S. Senate. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In KS, Pat Roberts’ Primary Lead Erodes, and Roberts’ November Prospects Are Complicated by Independent Orman; For Governor, Democratic Davis-Docking Ticket, Newly Backed by High Profile KS Republicans, Remains in Driver’s Seat

SurveyUSA Operations - 87 days ago

Kansas Incumbent Republican Pat Roberts, hoping to sail to re-election to his fourth term in the US Senate, finds himself no longer able to take for granted the 08/05/14 Republican Primary, and, should he survive the primary, no longer able to guarantee a win in the November general election, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for KSN-TV in Wichita.

Roberts today leads conservative primary challenger Milton Wolf by 20 points. That’s substantial, but down from the 33-point lead that Roberts had 1 month ago, when SurveyUSA last polled this contest. There is little movement among conservative voters, where you might expect to find it. There is movement among moderates, where Wolf has halved Roberts lead poll-on-poll. There is also movement among voters age 50 to 64, where Roberts had led by 31 points, now 8.

Assuming Roberts dispatches Wolf in the primary, Roberts’ life is then complicated by Independent Greg Orman, who today takes 14% of the vote in a hypothetical general election match-up. 3 months till early voting in the 11/04/14 election begins, it’s Roberts 38%, Democrat Chad Taylor 33%, Orman at 14%, and Libertarian Randall Batson at 4%. Roberts holds just 59% of the Republican base. Orman gets 30% of the vote among Independents. Orman takes twice as many Republican votes (13%) as he takes Democratic votes (6%). Roberts is above 50% only in rural Western KS. He is at 43% in greater Wichita, 36% in greater Kansas City, and 33% in Eastern KS.

For Governor, Sam Brownback’s Kansas Experiment is slowly coming into the national spotlight. Today, in a hypothetical head-to-head-to-head, the incumbent Republican ticket of Brownback and Jeff Colyer trails the Democratic challenger ticket of Paul Davis and Jill Docking, 48% to 40%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll conducted 1 month ago, Brownback is down 1 point, Davis is up 1 point. The governor’s race crosstabs reveal: the older you are, the less you like Sam Brownback. He trails by 20 points among seniors, trails by 13 points among those age 50 to 64. Only among voters under age 50 does Brownback have a nominal advantage. Among voters who say the most important issue in the Governor’s election is education funding, Davis-Docking lead 4:1. Among voters who say the most important issue in the Governor’s election is tax rates, Brownback-Colyer lead 5:3. Brownback holds 60% of the Republican base, compared to Davis, who holds 89% of the Democratic base. Independents break for the Democrat by 21 points – but, it’s important to point out that the Libertarian ticket of Keen Umbehr and Josh Umbehr takes 13% of Independent votes.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,400 state of Kansas adults 07/17/14 through 07/22/14. Of the adults, 2,079 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 691 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 08/05/14 Republican Primary, 322 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 08/05/14 Democratic Primary. 1,208 voters were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 General Election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a survey on their laptop, tablet, smartphone or other electronic device.

In KS-04, Men Take Fresh Look At Challenger Tiahrt, Who Draws Closer to Incumbent Pompeo in Fast-Approaching GOP Primary

SurveyUSA Operations - 88 days ago

2 weeks until votes are counted in the 08/05/14 Republican Primary in Kansas’ 4th Congressional District, with early voting underway, former Congressman Todd Tiahrt has momentum, and is closing on incumbent Mike Pompeo, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for KSN-TV in Wichita.

When SurveyUSA first looked at the contest 5 weeks ago, Tiahrt had just announced his intention to jump into the race. Back then, SurveyUSA found Pompeo ahead by 17 points. Fast forward to today, with the campaign in full swing: SurveyUSA finds Pompeo ahead by just 7 points, 46% to 39%. Poll-on-poll, Pompeo is down 5 points, Tiahrt is up 5 points.

What will happen over the final 2 weeks of the campaign? Is it safe to draw a straight line extending SurveyUSA’s interactive tracking graph and say that Tiahrt will catch Pompeo by Primary Day? That’s one plausible scenario. Can you look at today’s data and say that Tiahrt has peaked, and this is the closest he will ever draw to Pompeo. That’s another plausible scenario. The answer today is ultimately unknowable. Only 2 weeks from now, in retrospect, will we know for sure the significance of today’s numbers. To state the obvious: voter turnout will decide who gets the 08/05/14 nomination, and in turn who wins the seat, in the general election on 11/04/14.

Where is there movement poll-on-poll?

Among men, Pompeo had led by 19 points, today leads by 3 points, a 16-point swing to Tiahrt.
Among voters with a high-school education, Pompeo had led by 28, now by 1, a 27-point swing to Tiahrt.
Among conservatives, Pompeo had led by 27, now by 15, a 12-point swing to Tiahrt.
Among lower-income voters, Pompeo had led by 6, now trails Tiahrt by 2, an 8-point swing to Tiahrt.
Among voters under the age of 50, Pompeo had led by 15 points, now leads by 6, a 9-point swing to Tiahrt.

Against this backdrop, it is important to remember that although Tiahrt appears to have momentum, Pompeo still leads. Which candidate succeeds in getting his voters to return an early ballot, and which candidate succeeds in getting his Primary Day voters to the polls on 08/05/14, will ultimately emerge victorious.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research, which was conducted 100% by telephone. SurveyUSA interviewed 900 registered voters from Kansas’ 4th Congressional District 07/17/14 through 07/21/14, using Registration Based Sample (RBS), which is also known as Voter List Sample, purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. To qualify for inclusion, a household needed to have voted in at least one previous Congressional primary. Of the 900 registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 671 were likely to vote in the 08/05/14 Primary. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (also known as: cell-phone respondents), were called on their cell phones, by live operators, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent’s cooperation, conducted the interview, and remained on the line until the completion of the interview. You must credit KSN-TV if you cite these results.

In FL Governor’s Duel, Democrat Crist Now In the Spotlight, Democrat Crist Now In The Lead – Newly Atop Republican Scott in Dramatic Swing

SurveyUSA Operations - 89 days ago

Charlie Crist made news last week when he named a running mate, and that appears to resonate with Florida’s likely voters, who now have Crist 6 points atop Republican Rick Scott, 46% to 40%, according to WFLA-TV’s latest tracking poll in the contest.

2 weeks ago, Crist trailed Scott by 2. As Crist has enjoyed nonstop media attention over the past 5 days, which happen to coincide with SurveyUSA’s field period for this survey, Crist’s poll numbers benefited as well. In 8 WFLA-TV / SurveyUSA tracking polls going back to 04/15/14, Crist has led on 5 occasions, though never by as much as the 6 points he does today. Scott has led in 3 of the 8 tracking polls, though never by more than 2 percentage points.

Among women, Crist had led by 3, now leads by 10, a gain of 7 points.
Among men, Crist had trailed by 7, now is tied, a gain of 7.
Among moderates, a key constituency for any Democrat who hopes to win elected office, Crist leads by 22 points, up from 13 points 2 weeks ago.
Among Independents, Scott and Crist are effectively tied, a 10 point improvement for Crist poll-on-poll.
The 08/26/14 FL Primary has not been held yet, and Crist has not yet won his party’s nomination.
After the primary, 2 months of intense campaigning remain before voting begins; these poll numbers can and will change during those 60 days.

Looking ahead to the 2016 election for president in the pivotal state of Florida, hypothetical head-to-head polling by SurveyUSA for WFLA-TV shows the following:

Hillary Clinton 49%.
Chris Christie 38%.

Chris Christie 48%.
Joe Biden 39%.

Hillary Clinton 46%.
Rand Paul 42%.

Rand Paul 47%.
Joe Biden 39%.

Hillary Clinton 53%.
Marco Rubio 39%.

Marco Rubio 46%.
Joe Biden 43%.

Hillary Clinton 47%.
Jeb Bush 41%.

Jeb Bush 47%.
Joe Biden 38%.

As always, cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 state of Florida adults 07/17/14 through 07/21/14. Of the adults, 839 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 564 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In FL, Steady As She Goes: Scott 2 Atop Crist for Gov; For POTUS in 2016, FL Stays Blue if Clinton Runs; FL Turns Red if Biden Runs

SurveyUSA Operations - 102 days ago

With July 4 in the rear-view mirror, Republican Rick Scott finds himself a nominal 2 points atop Democrat Charlie Crist in the contest for Florida Governor, according to the latest WFLA-TV tracking poll. Compared to an identical WFLA-TV poll released 06/24/14, Scott is up 3 points, Crist is up 2 points. Scott had led by a nominal 1 point, now 2, largely unchanged. Scott’s 45% today is the highest he has polled in 7 WFLA-TV track points.

Looking ahead to the 2016 election for president in the pivotal state of Florida, hypothetical head-to-head polling by SurveyUSA for WFLA-TV shows the following:

Hillary Clinton 46%.
Rand Paul 42%.

Rand Paul 47%.
Joe Biden 39%.

Hillary Clinton 53%.
Marco Rubio 39%.

Marco Rubio 46%.
Joe Biden 43%.

Hillary Clinton 47%.
Jeb Bush 41%.

Jeb Bush 47%.
Joe Biden 38%.

As always, cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 state of Florida adults 06/30/14 through 07/02/14. Of the adults, 849 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 558 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

Kansas Political Rundown: Brownback Under Water; Schodorf In Kobach’s Rear-View Mirror; Roberts Ahead But Can’t Coast

SurveyUSA Operations - 116 days ago

6 weeks till votes are counted in the 08/05/14 Kansas Primary, no incumbent is threatened in contests for Governor, Senator and Secretary of State, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSN-TV in Wichita. But strong general election challengers may make for an exciting Fall.

On the Republican Primary ballot:

For Governor, the incumbent ticket of Sam Brownback and Jeff Colyer 3:2 defeats the challenger ticket of Jennifer Winn and Robin Lais.
For U.S. Senator, incumbent Pat Roberts defeats challenger Milton Wolf 2:1.
For Secretary of State, incumbent Kris Kobach defeats challenger Scott Morgan 2:1.

On the Democratic Primary ballot:

For U.S. Senator, Chad Taylor defeats Patrick Wiesner 41% to 16%, but a plurality of likely voters, 43%, remain undecided, making any outcome possible.

Looking ahead to the 11/04/14 General Election:

Brownback is fighting for his life. Democratic challengers Paul Davis and Jill Docking today lead the former U.S. Senator and current Governor, 47% to 41%. 1 in 4 registered Republicans today defects and votes for the Davis/Docking Democratic ticket. By contrast, Davis/Docking holds 89% of the Democratic base. Independents break Democratic by 19 points. Brownback’s weakness among men, where he leads Davis by a nominal 1 point, cannot overcome the Democratic ticket’s strength among women, where Davis/Docking leads by 14 points.

In the Governor contest, voters are focused on tax rates and education funding. Those who say tax rates are most important vote Republican, by 16 points. Those who say education funding is most important vote Democratic, by 54 points. Brownback has 5 months to consolidate his support.

In the contest for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Roberts, Roberts today defeats likely Democratic nominee Taylor 43% to 33%. Third-party candidates take 12% of the vote today, and another 12% are undecided. Roberts is above 50% in rural Western KS, but below 50% elsewhere. Roberts leads among men and women, and leads in every age group. But combined, Roberts’ 3 opponents have more support than he does.

In the Senate contest, voters are focused on the economy and health care. Those who say health care is most important back Roberts 3:1. Those who say that the economy is most important back Taylor 4:3.

In the Secretary of State contest, incumbent Republican Kris Kobach narrowly edges Jean Schodorf, 47% to 41%. Kobach appeals to conservatives, where he leads 9:1, but Schodorf has significant strength among moderates, where she leads by 38 points. Kobach holds 70% of the Republican base, but Schodorf holds 80% of the Democratic base. Independents in this contest break Democratic 4:3.

In the Secretary of State contest, voters are focused on immigration, where Kobach has a 41 point advantage.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,200 state of Kansas adults 06/19/14 through 06/23/14. Of the adults, 1931 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 508 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 08/05/14 Republican Primary, 252 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 08/05/14 Democratic Primary. 1,068 voters were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 General Election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a survey on their laptop, tablet, smartphone or other electronic device.

In Florida, Scott and Crist Now Nose-to-Nose in WFLA-TV Tracking Poll

SurveyUSA Operations - 117 days ago

As summer begins, Florida’s even-steven race for Governor glows white hot, with this latest release of the WFLA-TV tracking poll showing incumbent Republican Rick Scott at 42%, Democratic challenger Charlie Crist at 41%. The research, conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV by SurveyUSA, is more favorable to Scott than data released 06/10/14, which showed Crist leading Scott by 4 points.

Some of the ground that Scott made up between 06/10/14 and today is among seniors, where Crist had recently drawn even with Scott, but today Crist falls to 13 points behind. Scott also makes up ground among the most educated voters, where 2 weeks ago Crist led by 11 and now leads by 3. Today’s release shows a 25-point Gender Gap: Scott leads by 13 points among men; Crist leads by 12 points among women. Cubans vote Republican. Non-Cuban Hispanics vote Democratic. Whites vote Republican. Blacks vote Democratic. Independents break 4:3 Republican. Moderates break 2:1 Democratic.

Looking ahead to the 2016 Presidential election, SurveyUSA wheels Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio against 2 possible Democratic nominees: Hillary Clinton today defeats Rubio by 14 points in a hypothetical match-up. Rubio today defeats Joe Biden by 3 points in a hypothetical match-up. Formidably: Clinton gets 60% of the female vote if she is the Democratic nominee. By contrast, Biden gets 47% of the female vote if he is the Democratic nominee.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 950 state of Florida adults 06/20/14 through 06/23/14. Of the adults, 834 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 541 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election, and were asked the Crist-Scott questions. The 2016 hypotheticals were asked of all 834 registered voters. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone or other electronic device.

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