Loading...

Despite Near Fisticuffs, Fundamentals of Sherman-Berman Contest in CA-30 Remain the Same — Sherman on Top

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/25/12 07:37 PM

The dramatic debate between Democrat Brad Sherman and Democrat Howard Berman in the musical-chairs contest to see which of the 2 incumbents gets the 1 seat in California’s newly drawn 30th Congressional District, has had little effect on the polling numbers in the race, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles. Today, Sherman leads by 11 points, 44% to 33%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 1 month ago, Sherman is down 1 point, Berman is up 1 point. Sherman had led by 13, now leads by 11. Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot (early voters), Sherman leads by 16 points.

Both candidates’ “favorability” numbers have gone down as the campaign has heated up. Sherman had been at Plus 33 Net Favorable, now is at Plus 18. Berman had been at Plus 22 Net Favorable, now is at Plus 8. Voters do not see one candidate or the other as more even-tempered. Voters continue to see Sherman as more focused on the needs of Valley residents, unchanged from last month.

In an indication of how the larger political scene has been transformed in the 30 days since SurveyUSA’s last poll of the district, President Barack Obama today carries the district by 22 points. One month ago, Obama carried the district by 33 points. SurveyUSA sees this kind of erosion in Obama’s support in geographies across the country, not just in heavily Democratic districts.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research, which was conducted 100% by telephone: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 registered voters 10/22/12 through 10/24/12 using registration based (voter list) sample from Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 674 had already cast a ballot or were likely to do so in the election for U.S. House of Representatives. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (83% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (17% of likely voters) were called on their cell phones by live operators, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured respondent cooperation, qualified the respondent, asked the questions, logged the answers, and remained on the line until the interview was completed.

In Ohio, Mandel Surges in Senate Fight with Brown; Romney Still Looking to Catapult Past Obama As Final Debate Begins

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/24/12 05:30 AM

In an election in Ohio today for President of the United States, Barack Obama remains where he has been for the past 2 SurveyUSA weekly tracking polls — ever-so-slightly ahead of Mitt Romney in the battle for the Buckeye State’s 18 electoral votes, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV in Columbus. 15 days until votes are counted, it’s Obama 47%, Romney 44%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 1 week ago, Obama and Romney are both up 2 points. Obama led by 3 points last week, leads by 3 points today.

An election today for United States Senator from Ohio is too-close-to-call. Democrat Sherrod Brown today is at 43%, Republican Josh Mandel is at 42%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 1 week ago, Brown is flat, Mandel is up 4 points. Brown had led by 5, now leads by 1. The week-on-week movement comes from:

Independents, where Mandel last week led by 3 points and today leads by 13 points, a 10-point right turn.
Union households, where last week Brown was up 14 points and today he is up 5 points, a 9-point right turn.
Middle-income voters, where Brown had led by 16 points, and today is tied, a 16-point right turn.
Men, where last week Mandel was at 42% and today he is at 47%.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 725 state of Ohio adults 10/20/12 through 10/22/12. Of the adults, 625 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 609 were determined by SurveyUSA to have either already voted or to be certain to do so before the 11/06/12 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (76% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (24% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. All interviews were conducted after the 2nd Presidential debate and before the 3rd Presidential debate. The party composition of SurveyUSA’s 10/15/12 poll was 32% Republican, 39% Democrat. The party composition of today’s 10/22/12 poll is 32% Republican, 39% Democrat.

In MN-02, Incumbent Republican Kline Atop DFL Challenger Obermueller

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/23/12 02:40 PM

In an election for U.S. House of Representatives from Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District today, 18 days until votes are counted, incumbent Republican John Kline leads DFL challenger Mike Obermueller 49% to 41%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities. Kline’s entire advantage comes from men. The contest is tied among women. Obermeuller ties Kline among voters age 50+, who are the most reliable voters. Kline leads among voters under age 50, who are sometimes less reliable voters. Independents break by 13 points for Kline. Moderates break by 7 points for Obermueller.

Kline has a Plus 21 Net Favorability rating.
Obermueller has a Plus 13 Net Favorability rating.
By 43% to 33%, voters say Kline will do more to bring jobs to the district.
By a narrow 40% to 38% margin, voters say Kline will do more to protect Medicare.
By a narrow 37% to 35% margin, voters say Kline is stronger on education issues.
President Obama carries the district 48% to 44% in an election today.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 registered voters from Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District 10/17/12 and 10/18/12 using registration based (voter list) sample from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 565 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were called on their cell phones by live operators, who hand-dialed the phone, qualified the respondent, secured the respondent’s cooperation, conducted the interview, logged the respondent’s answers, and remained on the phone until the conclusion of the interview.

In Washington State’s 1st Congressional District, Teeter-Totter Tips Ever-So-Slightly to Democrat DelBene

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/23/12 02:39 PM

16 Days till votes are counted in Washington state, Democrat Suzan DelBene may have a slight advantage over Republican John Koster, in a fight for the open seat in the 1st Congressional District, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KING5-TV in Seattle. Today, it’s DelBene 47%, Koster 44%, within the survey’s possible sources of error, but a clear indication that DelBene has gained ground on Koster. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 5 weeks ago, DelBene is up 5 points, Koster is down 2 points. Koster had led by 4 points, now trails by 3, a 7-point swing to the Democrat. To see a graphical representation of the teeter-totter, click here to open SurveyUSA’s interactive tracking graph.

Koster holds 88% of Republicans. DelBene holds 86% of Democrats. Independents split. DelBene’s narrow advantage comes from moderates, where she leads by 21 points. Koster leads among those who do not have a 4-year college degree. DelBene leads among those with a 4-year college degree. Though voters today still cite the economy as the most important issue, social issues have increased in importance, compared to 5 weeks ago. Today, 25% of voters say social issues are most important, up from 17%. This benefits DelBene.

DelBene has a Plus 7 Net Favorability Rating today. Compared to SurveyUSA’s poll 5 weeks ago, DelBene has improved from a Minus 6, a 13-point gain. Koster has a Plus 6 Net Favorability Rating today. Compared to SurveyUSA’s poll 5 weeks ago, Koster has gone down, from a Plus 14, largely as a result of his unfavorable numbers being driven up.

By 47% to 39%, voters say DelBene better reflects their views on social issues. This is an 8-point gain for DelBene.
By 44% to 41%, voters today say Koster better reflects their position on economic issues. This is a 3-point gain for DelBene.
By 44% to 40%, voters say DelBene better identifies with the concerns of ordinary people. This is a 5-point gain for DelBene.
By 39% to 36%, voters say DelBene better represents the interests of the high-tech industry. This is a 6-point gain for DelBene.
By 46% to 31%, voters say Koster better represents the interests of rural voters. This is 4-point gain for DelBene.
By 50% to 42%, Republican Rob McKenna carries the district in a vote for Governor today. This is a 2-point gain for McKenna compared to 5 weeks ago.
By 48% to 45%, Barack Obama carries the district in a vote for President today. This is a 3-point improvement for Obama compared to 5-weeks ago.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 registered voters from Washington’s 1st Congressional District using registration based (voter list) sample from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 610 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot, or to be be likely to do so before the 11/06/12 deadline. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were called on their cellphones by live operators, who hand-dialed the phones, qualified the respondent, secured the respondent’s cooperation, conducted the interview, logged the respondent’s answers, and remained on the line until the interview was completed. The U.S. House seat in Washington’s newly drawn 1st district is open; Democrat Jay Inslee resigned to run for Governor.

In CT Fight for Lieberman Senate Seat, Democrat Murphy Narrowly Atop Republican McMahon, 16 Days till Votes are Counted

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/23/12 07:02 AM

In an election for United States Senator from Connecticut today, 10/22/12, Democrat Chris Murphy is at 47% to Linda McMahon’s 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WABC-TV in New York City. The seat is open, and one that Republicans need to pick-up in order to take control of the U.S. Senate.

Murphy’s advantage comes entirely from CT minorities: the contest is tied among white voters.
Murphy’s advantage comes entirely from high school educated voters. The contest is tied among those with at least some college education.
Murphy leads among voters earning less than $80,000 a year; McMahon leads among voters earning more than $80,000.
Murphy leads in Fairfield and Hartford counties, McMahon leads in New Haven County.
Independents break 5:4 Republican, but that is offset by Moderates, who break 5:4 Democrat.
Murphy benefits from a 25-point gender gap: he leads by 16 points among women, which offsets McMahon’s 9-point lead among men.
Murphy leads among the youngest and oldest voters. McMahon leads among middle-aged voters.
Both candidates are disliked. Murphy has a Minus 9 Net Favorability. McMahon has a Minus 10 Net Favorability.

In an election for President of the United States today, Connecticut’s 7 electoral votes remain safely blue: Barack Obama defeats Mitt Romney 53% to 40%. Obama leads in every age group and has a 25-point advantage among CT women. 18% of CT’s few Republicans cross-over and vote Democratic in the contest for President.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of CT adults 10/19/12 through 10/21/12. Of the adults, 637 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 575 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (79% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (21% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

Independents in CA Call 3rd Debate a Draw; Even After 3 Spirited Sessions, 5% in CA Remain Undecided

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/23/12 02:00 AM

Barack Obama and Mitt Romney dueled to a draw among California’s Independent voters in tonight’s 3rd and final presidential debate, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted immediately after the debate ended. Among all California debate watchers:

58% say Barack Obama was the clear winner.
35% say Mitt Romney was the clear winner.
7% say there was no clear winner.

California is a “blue” state, so it is not a surprise that Obama would be the winner among all Californians. That is why it’s important to examine just what Independent voters say, since they are the closest thing to “neutral” voters available to interview. Among California’s Independent voters, the scoring was close enough to be called a draw: 47% of CA Independents see Obama as the clear winner, 44% of CA Independents see Romney as the clear winner. Democrats by 8:1 score it for Obama. Republicans by 3:1 score it for Romney.

Of those Californians who have now watched all 3 presidential debates, 94% have made up their mind who they will vote for, but 5% tell SurveyUSA that after all is said and done, they are still, at this hour, undecided.

800 California adults were interviewed 10/22/12. Of them, 591 watched tonight’s debate. 511 watched all 3 debates. SurveyUSA California research conducted for KABC-TV in Los Angeles, KPIX-TV in San Francisco, KGTV-TV in San Diego, and KFSN-TV in Fresno.

In Florida, Romney and Obama A Whisker Apart, 18 Days Till Votes Are Counted; Republican Mack Gains On Democrat Nelson in Senate Fight

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/20/12 08:41 AM

In an election for President of the United States in Florida today, 10/19/12, Barack Obama is a nominal, statistically insignificant, single point ahead of Mitt Romney, 47% to 46%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, Romney is up 2 points, Obama is down 1 point. Florida’s critical 29 electoral votes remain up for grabs, 18 days till votes are counted. Romney has gained ground in each of 3 SurveyUSA tracking polls going back to 07/20/12. Obama’s once 12-point lead among Florida women has been reduced to 4 points. The contest is tied among men. Narrowly, Cubans vote Republican. Decisively, non-Cuban Hispanics vote Democrat. Voters under age 50 vote for Obama. Voters age 50+ vote for Romney. Whites vote for Romney 5:4. Moderates vote for Obama 5:4. Independents break 44% to 40% for Romney.

Voters with a high school education split 45% for each candidate. Voters with some college education split 47% for each candidate. Romney has a 5-point edge among those with a 4-year college degree. Obama leads among those who earn less than $80,000 a year. Romney leads among Florida voters who earn more than $80,000 a year. 4 of Florida’s 5 regions break for Romney. Obama’s advantage comes entirely from Southeast Florida, where he leads by 24 points. Obama has a Plus 3 Net Favorability today. Romney has a Minus 2 Net Favorability today.

In an election for United States Senator from Florida today, Democrat Bill Nelson gets 48% to 40% for Republican Connie Mack. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, Nelson is up 1 point, Mack is up 4 points. Nelson had led by 11, now leads by 8. Nelson had led by 15 points in Central Florida, now leads by 1. Nelson had led by 14 among Independent voters, now leads by 6. Nelson had led by 37 points among political moderates, now leads by 23. There is offsetting movement among middle-income voters, where Nelson had led by 10, now leads by 15, and among seniors, where Nelson had led by 2, now leads by 10. Nelson has a Plus 9 Net Favorability in the state. Mack has a Minus 10 Net Favorability.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 Florida adults 10/17/12 and 10/18/12. Of the adults, 645 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 600 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (77% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (23% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, or other electronic device. All interviews conducted after 10/16/12 town-hall Presidential debate.

New Jersey Safely Blue, 18 Days Till Votes Are Counted; Incumbent Democrat Menendez Cruises to Easy Re-Election in U.S. Senate Contest

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/20/12 08:40 AM

In an election for President of the United States today, 10/19/12, New Jersey’s 14 electoral votes remain safely blue, with Barack Obama ahead of Mitt Romney 54% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WABC-TV in New York City. Obama’s entire margin of victory comes from women, where he leads by 27 points. The contest is tied among men. Obama leads among young and old, the educated and the less educated. Romney has a narrow 48% to 45% advantage among New Jersey’s white voters, but that is offset by Obama’s strong showing among the state’s African Americans, Asian Americans and Hispanics. Romney ties Obama among upper income voters, but Obama leads decisively among middle-income and lower-income voters. Independents break for Romney. Moderates break for Obama. Obama has a Plus 12 Net Favorability in the state. Romney has a Minus 12 Net Favorability in the state.

In an election for U.S. Senator from New Jersey, incumbent Democrat Robert Menendez today defeats Republican challenger Joe Kyrillos 53% to 33%. Menendez is at or above 50% in every age group and at every income level. Kyrillos challenges Menendez in South Jersey, but Menendez leads 5:3 in Central Jersey and 2:1 in North Jersey. Menendez has a Plus 16 Net Favorability. Kyrillos has a Plus 7 Net Favorability – but, 18 days until votes are counted, 55% of New Jersey likely voters either have no opinion at all of Kyrillos or are neutral on him.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of NJ adults 10/17/12 and 10/18/12. Of the adults, 628 are registered to vote in New Jersey. Of the registered, 577 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In Oregon, 19 Days Until Votes are Counted, Obama 7 points Atop Romney; 4 Ballot Measures Examined

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/20/12 08:39 AM

In an election for President of the United States in Oregon today, 10/18/12, with voting about to begin, Barack Obama defeats Mitt Romney 49% to 42%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV in Portland. All interviews were conducted following the 10/16/12 Presidential town-hall debate in New York. Obama carried Oregon by 16 points in 2008, but leads by 7 points today. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, Obama has lost 2 points: then, he led by 9.

Among men, Obama has gained ground: he had trailed by 3 points now leads by 2. Among women, Obama has lost ground: he had led by 21 points, now leads by 11. Obama’s advantage among Independents has been shaved by 3 points: he had led by 7, now leads by 4. Obama has lost ground among lower income voters, gained ground among middle-income voters. Romney has made inroads among upper-income voters. In the region of Oregon outside of greater Portland, the contest has flipped: Obama had led by 3, now trails by 10. Compared to 5 weeks ago, Romney voters are voting more “for” Romney than they are voting “against” Barack Obama, a sign that Romney is seen today as a more attractive candidate, not just an “anybody but Obama.”

Measure 80, which would allow adults to grow and possess marijuana, continues to trail narrowly. Today, “No” leads “Yes” 43% to 36%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, opposition is up 2 points, support is down 1 point. The measure had trailed by 4, now trails by 7. The margin of support among Democrats has dropped 10 points.

Measure 82, which would allow privately owned casinos, today trails 53% to 28%. Opposition to the measure has grown from 16 points 5 weeks ago to 25 points today.

Measure 83, which would allow a privately owned casino in Wood Village, today trails 54% to 26%. Opposition to the measure has grown from 11 points 5 weeks ago to 28 points today.

SurveyUSA asked about Measure 85 in 2 different ways for this release. First, consistent with last month, SurveyUSA told voters very little about the measure, an attempt to gauge “certain” support. This approach is designed to identify the most-committed backers and opponents of a proposition, and is an approach used by SurveyUSA across the country to measure public awareness of ballot initiatives. Using this approach, 25% of voters tell SurveyUSA they are “certain” to vote No on Measure 85. 15% of voters tell SurveyUSA they are “certain” to vote Yes on Measure 85. 60% of voters are “not certain” how they will vote.

Separately, SurveyUSA read to voters a complete description of Measure 85. Using this approach, “Yes” on 85 leads “No,” 53% to 26%, with 21% undecided. This approach to initiative measurement includes “soft” support as well as “hard” support and incorporates into the findings those who may be hearing the exact ballot language for the first time. Given the full description: Democrats and Independents support the measure, Republicans split. Conservatives oppose the measure, moderates and liberals support.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of Oregon adults 10/16/12 through 10/18/12. Of the adults, 644 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 579 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (77% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (23% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

3 Weeks Till Votes Are Counted, ‘Yes’ on Minnesota Marriage Amendment Now in Jeopardy; Obama Steady Atop Romney; Klobuchar Re-Elected

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/18/12 03:58 PM

In an election for President of the United States today, 10/15/12, Barack Obama carries Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes, defeating Mitt Romney 50% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities. Obama’s 10-point advantage today is identical to his 50% to 40% advantage in a SurveyUSA poll released 5 weeks ago, 09/10/12.

In an election for United States Senator from Minnesota today, incumbent DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar defeats Republican challenger Kurt Bills 58% to 30%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, Klobuchar is up 3 points, Bills is down 4 points. Klobuchar had led by 21 points, now leads by 28 points.

Support for an amendment to Minnesota’s constitution to define marriage as a union of one man and one woman has eroded. The ballot measure is now running effectively even, 47% for “Yes,” 46% for “No,” and for the first time in SurveyUSA polling, in danger of defeat. 5 weeks ago, Yes led No by 7 points. In earlier SurveyUSA polling, where a summary of the ballot language was used instead of the actual ballot language, Yes had led by as many as 15 points.

5 weeks ago, women supported the measure by 5 points, now oppose the measure by 6 points, a swing of 11 points to “No.”
5 weeks ago, Independent voters supported the measure by 1 point, now oppose the measure by 10 points, a swing of 11 points to “No.”
5 weeks ago, moderates opposed the measure by 9 points, now oppose the measure by 20 points, a swing of 11 points to “No.”
5 weeks ago, middle-income voters had supported the measure by 10 points, now oppose the measure by 4 points, a swing of 14 points to “No.”

Support for a ballot measure that would require Minnesota voters to present a photo I.D. in order to vote is also eroding. 5 weeks ago, the measure led by 31 points, today leads by 13 points, 53% to 40%. Support for the measure has decreased among women from 29 points to 9 points. Opposition to the measure has increased among Democrats from 14 points to 33 points. Voters with a 4-year college degree had supported the measure by 24 points, now support by just 2 points. In Southern MN, support has eroded from 42 points to 6 points.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults 10/12/12 through 10/14/12. Of them, 640 were registered to vote in the state of Minnesota. Of the registered, SurveyUSA determined that 550 were likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (77% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (23% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device.

Copyright 2014 SurveyUSA®, Clifton NJ, all rights reserved. Terms & Conditions.