After 1st Debate, Clinton Tip-Toes 1 Point Further Ahead of Trump in CA; Sanchez Closes-In on Harris for Senate; Recreational Marijuana Ballot Proposition Clings to Narrow Advantage, 40 Days till Votes Are Counted, 11 Days Until Early Voting Begins
Hillary Clinton’s lead in California has increased ever-so-slightly in the 3 days immediately following the first Presidential debate, according to a SurveyUSA pre-election tracking poll conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno.
Clinton today leads Trump by 26 points in California, 59% to 33%, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 3% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 3 weeks ago, Clinton is up 2 points, Trump is up 1 point.
Clinton today leads by 35 points among all women (up 5 points from 3 weeks ago), leads by 28 points among suburban moms (unchanged), and leads by 52 points among single moms (unchanged). Clinton leads by 14 points among white voters, by 4 points among Asian American voters, by 50 points among Latino voters, and by 71 points among African American voters. Clinton leads by 39 points among 1st-generation Californians (those whose parents were born in another country). Clinton holds 96% of the Democratic base, Trump holds 81% of the Republican base. Independents break for Clinton by 7 points. Moderates break for Clinton by 34 points.
Trump leads Clinton by 5 points among gun owners. Trump leads by 24 points in the Inland Empire. The candidates run even in Central CA, but Clinton leads 2:1 in Greater Los Angeles and 3:1 in the Bay Area. Clinton leads by 54 points among Catholics. Clinton leads by 34 points in union households. Of those voting for Trump, 64% do so enthusiastically. Of those voting for Clinton, 71% do so enthusiastically. Of those voting for Trump, 43% say they are voting “against Clinton.” Of those voting for Clinton, 25% say they are voting “against Trump.”
In an election today for United States Senator from CA, to replace retiring Democrat Barbara Boxer, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Democrat Loretta Sanchez, 40% to 29%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 3 weeks ago, Harris is down 4 points, Sanchez is up 2 points, a 6-point swing towards Sanchez. Harris leads by 13 points among white voters, by 57 points among African American voters and by 19 points among Asian Americans. Sanchez leads by 6 points among California’s Latinos. Sanchez leads by 10 points among Republicans (there is no Republican on the ballot for U.S. Senate in 2016), Harris leads by 23 points among Democrats.
Sanchez leads among lower-income voters, among high-school educated voters, among rural voters, among voters who have lived in California less than 10 years, and among smokers. Those who voted for Carly Fiorina for Senate in 2010 back Sanchez by 8 points in 2016. Those who voted for Boxer in 2010 back Harris by 30 points.
* Proposition 56, which would increase the tax on cigarettes to $2 per pack, is favored to pass 61% to 33%.
* Proposition 62, which would end the death penalty in CA and replace it with life in prison, trails by 15 points today and is headed for defeat.
* Proposition 63, which outlaws large-capacity magazines and requires background checks on ammo purchases, leads by more than 2:1 and will pass.
* Proposition 64, which would legalize, regulate and tax recreational marijuana, is supported 52% to 41%. Caution advised.
Statewide Favorability Ratings:
* President Obama is viewed extremely favorably by 36% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 23%.
* Trump is viewed extremely favorably by 14% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 51%. * Clinton is viewed extremely favorably by 24% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 31%.
* Governor Jerry Brown is viewed extremely favorably by 14% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 18%.
* Dianne Feinstein is viewed extremely favorably by 14% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 18%.
* Boxer is viewed extremely favorably by 13% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 23%.
Context and Methodology:
SurveyUSA interviewed 900 state of California adults 09/27/16 and 09/28/16. All interviews were conducted after the first Presidential debate on 09/26/16. Of the adults, 817 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 732 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. Of registered voters, 2% tell SurveyUSA they almost always vote in a Presidential election but will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates. 5% of voters tell SurveyUSA they almost never vote in Presidential elections but will vote in 2016 because they are particularly drawn to one of the candidates. The survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (60% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (40% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the screen of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Polling ballot measures and citizen initiatives is an inexact science. In general, having nothing to do with California specifically and having nothing to do with 2016 uniquely, opposition to a ballot measure increases as Election Day approaches. Rarely does support for a ballot measure increase over time. It is likely that opposition to Propositions 56, 62, 63 and 64 will increase once early voting begins on 10/10/16. This may alter the calculus on recreational marijuana Proposition 64, which today has the most fragile advantage of those measures tested. Barack Obama carried California by 23 points in 2012 and by 24 points in 2008.