In Georgia, 1 Week Till Voting Begins, It’s a 1-Point Race for US Senate, 2-Point Race for Governor, 4-Point Race for School Superintendent
In the battle for the open US Senate seat in Georgia, Republican David Perdue can’t manage to pull away from Democrat Michelle Nunn in SurveyUSA’s polling for WXIA-TV in Atlanta. Today, the race stands exactly where it did 2 weeks ago: Perdue 46%, Nunn 45%, close enough to be called “even.”
Nunn holds an exceptionally high 87% of the Democratic base. That is the only way she can remain competitive in a contest where, today, independents break nearly 5:3 for her Republican opponent. Perdue holds 77% of conservatives. That is how he remains competitive in a contest where, today, Nunn leads among moderates by 22 points. Nunn gets to 54% in greater Atlanta, where she leads by 17. Perdue gets to 56% in Northwest GA, where he leads by 23. The candidates split the Southern and Eastern parts of the state.
In the contest for Governor, incumbent Republican Nathan Deal today has a 2-point advantage over Democratic challenger Jason Carter, 46% to 44%. That’s a 3-point swing in Deal’s favor compared to 2 weeks ago, when Carter edged Deal, in SurveyUSA polling, 45% to 44%. Consistently, over the past 4 tracking polls, Deal has polled at 50% or 51% among males, and led by 11 to 14 points. Inconsistently, over the past 4 tracking polls, Carter has tried to build a gender-gap advantage among women, where today Carter leads by 7. But Carter is not as strong among women as Deal is among men. Every additional man who turns out helps to re-elect the Governor; every additional woman who turns out helps to unseat the Governor.
In the contest for School Superintendent, Republican Richard Woods and Democrat Valarie Wilson remain where they have been for the past month — too close to call. Today, Woods gets 46%, Wilson gets 42%. On 09/09/14, Woods led by 4 points. On 09/23/14, Woods led by 2 points. Today, again, by 4. Voters who support the “Common Core” curriculum back Wilson by 43 points. Those who oppose the Common Core curriculum back Woods by 60 points.
* In the contest for Lieutenant Governor, incumbent Republican Casey Cagle today defeats Democrat Connie Stokes, 51% to 39%.
* In the contest for Secretary of State, incumbent Republican Brian Kemp today defeats Democrat Doreen Carter, 49% to 39%.
* In the contest for Attorney General of GA, incumbent Republican Sam Olens today defeats Democrat Greg Hecht 46% to 39%.
Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 825 state of GA adults 10/02/14 through 10/06/14. Of the adults, 714 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 566 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. You must credit WXIA-TV if you air, cite or publish these results in whole or part.