11 Alive Atlanta Exclusive Poll: 5 Days to Georgia Presidential Primary, Trump Pulls Away from GOP Field; Clinton Buries Sanders; In November Head-To-Head General Election Match-Ups, Republican Nominee, Whomever It Is, Beats Either Democrat; 16 Peach State Electoral Votes Stay Red
Donald Trump consolidates his gains from Nevada, South Carolina and New Hampshire, and marches through Georgia like Sherman’s army, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for WXIA-TV in Atlanta.
Today, 5 days till votes are counted and with many GA ballots already returned, it’s Trump 45% (1 point less than the 46% Trump got in Nevada), Marco Rubio 19%, Ted Cruz 16%, others further back.
Trump is backed by 51% of “strong Republicans,” 47% of conservatives and 46% of moderates. He is backed by 57% of voters with a high-school education, 52% of voters earning less than $40,000 a year, 49% of seniors.
Rubio runs strongest among affluent Republican primary voters and voters in greater Atlanta, but Rubio does not exceed the 25% support level in any voter demographic, so it will be hard for him to catch Trump, barring something completely unforeseen.
Cruz runs strongest among Republican primary voters who are “very conservative” and who are “falling behind” financially. Cruz does not reach 30% support in any demographic group — including evangelical Christians, where Trump beats Cruz 2:1, and including members of the Tea Party, where Trump beats Cruz 5:2.
In the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton defeats Bernie Sanders 66% to 27%. Though Sanders and Clinton run almost even among GA’s white Democratic primary voters, Clinton leads 4:1 among both African Americans and Hispanics. Though Sanders makes a show of it among “very liberal” voters, drawing to within 3 points of Clinton, Clinton is at 65% among moderates and at 73% among conservative Democrats.
Looking ahead to November, Trump and Rubio run slightly stronger than Cruz, but in every case, Republicans win the state in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups. “Today” it’s:
* Trump 50%, Clinton 41% — a 9-point Republican advantage.
* Trump 49%, Sanders 41% — an 8-point Republican advantage.
* Rubio 50%, Clinton 43% — a 7-point Republican advantage.
* Rubio 49%, Sanders 41% — an 8-point Republican advantage.
* Cruz 49%, Clinton 42% — a 7-point Republican advantage.
* Cruz 48%, Sanders 42% — a 6-point Republican advantage.
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,650 Georgia adults 02/22/16 through 02/23/16. Approximately half of the interviews were completed before the results of the Nevada Republican caucuses were known, the other half after. Of the adults interviewed, 1,454 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 1,261 voters who were likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election, 684 voters who had either already voted in the Republican presidential primary or who were certain to do so before the deadline, and 501 voters who had already voted in the Democratic presidential primary or who were certain to do so before the deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (53% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (47% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. In 2012, Mitt Romney defeated Barack Obama by 8 percentage points to capture Georgia’s 16 electoral college votes with 53% of the ballots cast.