Full results here.
58% of Oregon adults say Governor John Kitzhaber should resign, according to this latest exclusive KATU 2 News Poll conducted by SurveyUSA. 36% say Kitzhaber should remain in office. Republicans say Kitzhaber should resign by a 4:1 margin; independents by a margin of 2:1. Democrats say Kitzhaber should remain in office by a slim 5:4 margin.
45% of Oregonians say Kitzhaber has done things that were unethical, but not illegal; 28% say Kitzhaber has broken the law; 20% say he has done nothing wrong. When asked the same question about Cylvia Hayes, Kitzhaber’s fiance and Oregon’s First Lady, a different response: a majority, 54%, believe she has broken the law; another 28% say she has acted unethically, but not illegally.
Who bears most of the blame for the situation John Kitzhaber tonight finds himself in? 31% say Kitzhaber himself is most to blame; 22% say Hayes; 41% say both bear an equal share of the responsibility.
3 of 4 San Francisco Bay Area adults familiar with the protests that shut down BART service on Black Friday say criminal charges against the “Black Friday 14″ protesters should remain in place. By a 2:1 margin, those familiar with the protests say financial restitution should be made; by an 8:1 margin, that protesters should be required to perform community service. Full results here.
* One-third of Fresno agrees with all of President Obama’s immigration changes.
* One-third of Fresno disagrees with all of President Obama’s immigration changes.
* And one-third of Fresno agrees with some changes and disagrees with other changes.
* Half of Fresno says the President has the authority to make such changes.
* Half of Fresno says the President does not have the authority to make such changes.
1,000 Fresno area adults were interviewed 11/21/14. Of them, 647 watched the President’s 11/20/14 speech to the nation, or heard news coverage of it. Full results here.
In New Mexico, Incumbent Republican Martinez Re-Elected Governor; Incumbent Democrat Udall Poised To Be Re-Elected US Senator, Or Is He?
24 hours till votes are counted in New Mexico, both of New Mexico’s top-of-ticket incumbents are ahead in contests for re-election, according to research conducted for KOB-TV.
First-term incumbent Democrat Tom Udall leads Republican challenger Allen Weh 52% to 39% in the contest for US Senate. But, there is a profound wrinkle in the data that may make the outcome closer than these numbers indicate. Among those New Mexicans who tell SurveyUSA that they have already returned a ballot, Weh leads, 50% to 48%. If Udall is to win tomorrow, 11/04/14, he will need to outperform Weh among voters who cast their ballot at the precinct, to overcome Weh’s advantage among early voters. For Udall to achieve the 13-point victory that these poll results show, Udall would need to outperform Weh on Election Day by 22 points. If the Democratic turn-out-the-vote engine sputters, Udall may sweat-out a nervous Election Night.
Weh leads among NM whites by 8 points. Udall leads among Latinos by 33 points. Udall has a 20-point lead among women and a 5-point lead among men. Udall holds 78% of the Democratic base. Weh holds 80% of the Republican base. Independents break by 16 points for Udall. Udall leads by 23 points in Bernalillo County, which includes Albuquerque. Udall leads by just 9 points in the rest of New Mexico.
First-term incumbent Republican Susana Martinez leads Democratic challenger Gary King 56% to 38% in the contest for Governor of New Mexico. Martinez leads by at least 13 points in every age group. She leads by 23 points among men and by 15 points among women. Martinez’ broad coalition includes 63% of white votes and 50% of Latino voters. She holds 94% of the GOP base, and siphons off 34% of the Democrats, who break party ranks and cross-over.
Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 state of New Mexico adults 10/30/14 through 11/02/14. Of the adults, 633 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 548 were identified by SurveyUSA as having already returned a ballot, or as being likely to do so before the 11/04/14 general election deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (84% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (16% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.
Back to Where We Were in August: GOP Has Potential to ‘Run The Table’ In Georgia; May Win All 6 Key Statewide Offices
8 WXIA-TV pre-election tracking polls ago, SurveyUSA wrote that Republicans in GA led in each of the top 6 statewide contests on the 11/04/14 General Election ballot. Though much changed over the past 12 weeks, and Democrats in a couple contests briefly overtook their GOP opponents as the campaign intensified, when all is said and done, on Election Eve, Republican candidates lead in all 6 statewide contests, and could conceivably “run the table” and win all of them.
In the nationally-significant contest for US Senator, to fill the open seat vacated by Saxby Chambliss, Republican David Perdue edges Michelle Nunn 47% to 44%. Were Perdue to win the seat by 3 percentage points, and were Libertarian Amanda Swafford to get less than 3% of the vote, a runoff would be avoided and Perdue would win the seat outright tomorrow, 11/04/14. Were Perdue to win the seat by less than 3 percentage points, and/or were Swafford to receive more than 3 percent of the vote, a January 2015 runoff would be required. Were Nunn to win the seat, and only a narrow Nunn win would be consistent with these results, that would be a significant upset. Nunn now trails among voters who have already returned a ballot, and trails among voters who say they will vote on Election Day. Nunn leads only among the youngest voters, who, in a midterm, are often the least reliable voters. Perdue leads among voters age 35+, and leads by 18 points among voters age 65+. Perdue leads 2:1 among GA whites. Nunn leads 7:1 among GA blacks. Perdue holds 91% of the Republican base. Twice as many Democrats cross-over and vote for Perdue as Republicans who cross-over and vote for Nunn. Independents split.
In the locally significant contest for Governor of GA, Democratic challenger Jason Carter falters at the finish, putting up a 42% number, his lowest poll number 8 tracking polls over the past 12 weeks. Incumbent Republican Nathan Deal puts up a 47% at the finish, his highest poll number in 12 weeks. Should these numbers hold, and should Deal win by 5 points, and/or should Libertarian Andrew Hunt be held to less than 5% of the vote, a runoff will be avoided, and Deal will win his next term tomorrow, 11/04/14. Should Deal win by fewer than 5 points and/or should Hunt get 5% or more of the vote, a January 2015 runoff will follow. A Carter win would be an enormous upset, given these poll results. Among the wealthiest Georgians, Carter’s support collapses at the finish: he trails Deal 53% to 39%. This is Carter’s lowest showing and Deal’s highest showing, among those households earning more than $80,000 a year, in 8 WXIA-TV tracking polls going back to August. Among voters who have already returned a ballot, Deal leads by 6 points.
* In the election for the open seat of School Superintendent, Republican Richard Woods edges Democrat Valarie Wilson 47% to 44%. Woods has never trailed.
* In the election for Lt Governor, incumbent Republican Casey Cagle defeats Democrat Connie Stokes 54% to 38%.
* In the election for Secretary of State, incumbent Republican Brian Kemp defeats Democrat Doreen Carter 52% to 40%.
* In the election for Attorney General, incumbent Republican Sam Olens defeats Democrat Greg Hecht 51% to 39%.
Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 state of GA adults 10/30/14 through 11/02/14. Of the adults, 638 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 591 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot, or to vote at the precinct. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (69% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (31% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. A candidate for statewide office in GA needs to reach 50% on Election Day, or a runoff is required. You must credit WXIA-TV in Atlanta if you air, cite or publish these results in whole or part.
Republicans Gain Late Ground in Minnesota, But Not Enough to Depose Incumbent Democrats Franken, Dayton
The 2 top-of-ticket contests on the ballot in Minnesota in 2014 tighten materially as Election Day approaches, but not so much as to call into question the outcome.
In this, SurveyUSA’s 4th and final look at the contests, with 96-hours remaining until votes are counted:
* Incumbent Governor Mark Dayton’s once double-digit lead has been halved; he now leads Republican Jeff Johnson 47% to 42%.
* Incumbent US Senator Al Franken remains poised to defeat Republican Mike McFadden 51% to 40%.
Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, Dayton is down 3 points, Johnson is up 2 points. Dayton had led by 10, now 5. Among independents, Dayton had led by 6 points, now trails by 12 points, an 18-point right turn.
Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, Franken is down 2 points, McFadden is up 2 points. Franken had led by 15 points, now leads by 11. Among independents, Franken had led by 19 points, now is tied, a 19-point right turn.
Minnesota job approvals follow:
* President Barack Obama, 40%.
* U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar, 59%.
* U.S. Senator Al Franken, 53%.
* Governor Mark Dayton, 49%.
* The state legislature, 30%.
* MNSure, 25%.
Those voters who say health care is the most important issue in the election narrowly back the DFL candidate. Those voters who say that taxes are the most important issue back the Republican candidate by more than 2:1.
Minnesota voters split on whether they would vote for a Republican or a Democrat for the US House of Representatives. 44% vote for a Democrat. 43% vote for a Republican. Largely unchanged, poll-on-poll.
Minnesota voters also split on whether they would vote for a Republican or a Democrat for the Minnesota House of Representatives. 44% say Democrat, 43% say Republican. Two weeks ago, it was 46% Democrat, 42% Republican.
Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of MN adults 10/27/14 through 10/30/14. Of the adults, 647 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 597 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot, or to be certain to do so before the 11/04/14. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (76% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (24% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.
In CA’s 52nd US Congressional District, Fight To Finish Between Incumbent Democrat Peters and GOP DeMaio
96-hours till votes are counted in the election for US House of Representatives from California’s 52nd Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Scott Peters and Republican challenger Carl DeMaio are today as they ever were: locked in hand-to-hand combat to wrest control of the seat. Today, SurveyUSA shows it: DeMaio 45%, Peters 44%. The research was commissioned by KGTV-TV 10News and the UT San Diego newspaper.
This is the 4th pre-election tracking poll that SurveyUSA has conducted in CA-52. DeMaio has led, outside of the theoretical margin of sampling error, only once, the first time, back on 06/13/14. Since then, the nominal lead has seesawed, but always within the theoretical margin. Today, heading into the final weekend before votes are counted, and with many CA ballots already returned, both candidates are well-positioned for victory; neither candidate can be considered the favorite.
If Peters holds the seat, which he may, it will be because young voters turned out in larger numbers than here forecast. And it will be because Latino voters voted in larger numbers than here forecast, and may also have voted more Democratically than here shown. If DeMaio wins by a narrow margin, it will be because seniors turned out in larger numbers than here forecast, and because white voters represented a larger portion of the electorate than here shown. If DeMaio wins by more than a couple points, that would be evidence of a much talked-about “Republican wave,” which may affect local elections across the country, as part of which a number of sitting House Democrats may get washed away.
Consistent in all 4 of SurveyUSA’s pre-election polls, voters say that “integrity” is the most important issue in the contest. And on the issue of integrity, Peters leads DeMaio 48% to 40%. Fiscal responsibility is the next most important issue, and on that issue DeMaio leads decisively, 74% to 21%.
Atypically, the number of undecided voters is up, as Election Day approaches. It has doubled since June. This is sometimes an indication that each candidate has succeeded in raising doubts about the other. And it is sometimes an indication that voters are holding their nose while marking their ballot.
This research was conducted 100% by telephone; live interviewers were used to hand-dial cell phones: SurveyUSA interviewed 580 registered voters from CA-52 10/27/14 through 10/30/14, using Registration Based Sample (RBS, also known as Voter List sample), purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 551 were identified by SurveyUSA as having already voted, or as being likely to vote on or before the 11/04/14 General Election deadline. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (68% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (32% of likely voters) were interviewed by live operators, who hand-dialed cell-phones, secured the cooperation of the respondent, qualified the respondent, conducted the interview, logged the answers, and remained on the call until its conclusion.
Given That This Is CO’s First-Ever All-U.S.-Mail Election, and Given 2 Close Contests, A Pollster’s Best Advice is to ‘Hold Your Breath’
SurveyUSA offers here its final research results in the high-profile contests for US Senator and Governor of Colorado. But with 26 separate public opinion polling firms working on the contest, all trying to get these two races right, and no 2 pollsters in agreement, circumspection is in order. In polling conducted exclusively for the Denver Post, SurveyUSA finds:
* For US Senate: Republican challenger Cory Gardner 46%, Democratic incumbent Mark Udall 44%.
* For Governor: incumbent Democrat John Hickenlooper 46%, Republican challenger Bob Beauprez 46%.
The Senate results are unchanged from a SurveyUSA Denver Post Poll 10/13/14, when Gardner also led by 2 points. Then 7% were undecided. Today, 5% are undecided.
2 previous SurveyUSA polls for the Denver Post had nominally better news for Hickenlooper: On 09/11/14, Hickenlooper led by 2 . On 10/13/14, Hickenlooper led by 1. Today, tied. And when all the votes are counted on Tuesday? Jump ball.
If Gardner does in fact hold-on and “takes-away” the Senate seat from the Democrats, it will be because his message resonated with middle-aged voters, age 35 to 64. Among those 35 to 49, Gardner leads by 19 points. Among those 50 to 64, Gardner leads by 8 points. Among seniors, the contest is tied, 48% each. A Gardner win means that Gardner did in fact keep independent voters in his column. He leads today among independents by just enough to carry the state, 43% to 36%. A Gardner win means that voters turned out outside of Greater Denver in sufficient numbers to overcome Udall’s thin, 5-point lead in Greater Denver. Gardner leads by 12 points everywhere else in CO outside of Greater Denver.
If Udall upsets Gardner and holds the seat, which he may, it will be because younger voters showed up in greater numbers than shown here. Udall leads among voters age 18 to 34 by 33 points. And, a Udall win would mean that women voted in larger numbers than shown here. Udall leads by 6 points among women, which, by itself, is not enough to offset Gardner who leads by 12 among men. A Udall win will mean that Hispanic Coloradans voted more Democratically than shown here. A Udall win means that liberals will account for more than 21% of the electorate, and that Udall will have carried moderates by more than the 15 percentage points shown here. And a Udall win means that lower-income voters will have voted in larger numbers than shown here.
A split decision is possible, and Hickenlooper may be returned to office while Udall is thrown out. Hickenlooper has run 2 or 3 points stronger than Udall in the most recent 2 polls. If Hickenlooper wins, he will have overcome an early-vote advantage that Beauprez has.
Of those respondents who tell SurveyUSA they have returned a ballot: Gardner leads by 3 points, Beauprez leads by 2 points. If Democrats fail to return the still outstanding ballots in the numbers forecast here, Republicans will out-perform these poll results.
* In the election for Attorney General, Republican Cynthia Coffman edges Democrat Don Quick 45% to 38%.
* In the election for Secretary of State, Republican Wayne W Williams edges Democrat Joe Neguse 43% to 39%.
* In the election for Treasurer, incumbent Republican Walker Stapleton edges Democrat Betsy Markey 46% to 41%.
* Down-ballot, low-profile contests are notoriously difficult to forecast.
* If these results hold, and if Beauprez is elected Governor, Republicans will have “run the table” in CO.
* On Amendment 67, which would protect the unborn by defining them to be human beings, “No” leads “Yes” 54% to 32%. Almost certain defeat.
* On Amendment 68, which would allow casino-style gambling at horse-racing tracks, “No” leads “Yes” 2:1. Certain defeat.
* On Proposition 104, which would open to the public bargaining sessions between school boards and teachers unions, “Yes” defeats “No” 61% to 24%.
* On Proposition 105, which would label certain foods as genetically engineered, “No” leads “Yes” 59% to 34%.
Colorado voters react positively to the state’s new all-U.S.-mail election law. 65% see the new law as a step in the right direction, 24% see it as a step in the wrong direction. Voter fraud? No consensus. A plurality, 33%, say that voting in person at a precinct will have less fraud than voting by mail. 31% say there will be fraud no matter how you vote. 25% say there will be almost no fraud, regardless of how a ballot is cast. And 8% say that vote-by-US-mail will result in less fraud than voting at the precinct.
Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents were included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of Colorado adults 10/27/14 through 10/29/14. Of the adults, 648 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 618 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot in this first-ever all-U.S.-mail election, or to be likely to do so before the deadline. Counting begins on 11/04/14. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home-telephone (71% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were shown a survey on their smartphone, tablet, or other electronic device.
At the Wire, Republican Birds Come Home to Roost; McConnell Well-Positioned to be Sworn-In As Senate Majority Leader in Next Congress
After giving careful consideration to Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes throughout the spring and summer of 2014, and after weighing the pros and cons of punishing GOP icon Mitch McConnell, Kentucky’s voters in the campaign’s final week rally to the 5-term incumbent, and leave him, 96-hours till the campaign ends, well-positioned for re-election to a 6th term, and uniquely well-positioned to be majority leader when Republicans seize from Democrats control of the US Senate on 11/04/14.
Today, in the final Bluegrass Poll conducted for the Louisville Courier-Journal, the Lexington Herald-Leader, WHAS-TV and WKYT-TV, it’s McConnell 48%, Grimes 43%. McConnell’s showing is his strongest in 4 Bluegrass Polls going back to 08/28/14.
86% of Republicans today vote Republican. The base solidifies. In 3 previous Bluegrass Polls the number never got above 79%. The number of Republicans who today “cross-over” and vote Democratic, is 8%, the lowest it has been. Conversely, 3 times as many Democrats today tell SurveyUSA they will break ranks and vote for Mitch. These are voters Grimes desperately courted, voters Grimes desperately needed to win.
McConnell ends the campaign backed by 55% of voters in Western KY, 53% of voters in Eastern KY, 45% of voters in NC KY, and 41% of voters in greater Louisville. McConnell is above 50% among the least educated and the most affluent.
McConnell ends with a Net Favorability Rating of Minus 7. 37% of voters see him favorably, 44% of voters see him unfavorably. Of greater significance, over the course of the campaign, McConnell ad dollars succeeded in pushing Grimes under water. She ends the campaign with a Minus 6 Net Favorability Rating: 37% see her favorably compared with 43% who see her unfavorably — almost identical to Mcconnell, and the lowest Net Favorability she has ever demonstrated. President Obama, whose shadow hangs over this and other Senate elections in 2014, ends with a Minus 28 Net Favorability Rating: 27% see him favorably compared to 55% who see him unfavorably.
* 64% of voters agree with the statement: “I know where McConnell stands on the issues.”
* 60% of voters agree with the statement: “I know where Grimes stands on the issues.”
* 68% of voters agree with the statement: “I am satisfied with my choices for US Senate.”
* 53% of voters say McConnell should answer questions put to him about climate change.
* 39% of voters say Grimes should disclose whether she voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.
Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents are included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of KY adults 10/25/14 through 10/29/14. Of the adults, 704 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 597 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 General Election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.