Coming out of the Democratic National Convention, Barack Obama has a broad coalition of support in Washington state, with a majority of men and women, rich and poor, and educated and less educated voters in his corner, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING5-TV in Seattle. Today: it’s Obama 54%, Romney 38%. Obama leads by 26 points among women in, this, SurveyUSA’s first poll of the Evergreen State since Mitt Romney appointed Paul Ryan as his running mate. Obama leads by 25 points in Greater Seattle and by 14 points in Western WA. Romney and Obama tie in Eastern WA. Independents break 4:3 Democrat. Moderates break Democrat by 7:3. Obama leads by 25 points among voters with a 4-year college degree. Obama leads by 18 points among upper-income voters. Little has changed compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 6 weeks ago. Then, Obama led by 17 points, today by 16 points.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of Washington adults 09/07/12 through 09/09/12, using blended sample, mixed mode. Of the adults, 607 were registered to vote; of the registered voters, 524 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the November general election. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device. Obama carried Washington State by 17 points in 2008. 12 electoral votes are at stake in 2012.

Two-thirds of those who watched Thursday night’s speeches at the Republican National Convention already had decided who they would vote for before anyone opened their mouth, but among the small but important group of persuadable speech watchers, there is 2:1 movement towards Romney, according to a SurveyUSA poll of the state of Florida conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa.

1,211 adults were interviewed statewide 08/31/12, after Romney, Florida’s Marco Rubio and Clint Eastwood spoke to the convention 08/30/12. Of the adults, 1,100 were registered to vote in Florida. Of the registered voters, 754 heard the convention speeches. Of the convention speech watchers:

* 66% did not change their mind.
* 16% switched from “undecided” to Romney.
* 6% switched from Obama to Romney.
* Adding those 2 together, that’s 22% who switched TO Romney.
* 10% switched from “undecided” to Obama.
* 2% switched from Romney to Obama.
* Adding those 2 together, that’s 12% who switched TO Obama.
* Comparing the 2 aggregate numbers: 22% switched TO Romney, 12% switched TO Obama.

Caution: As expected, those who watched the speeches at the Republican National Convention were disproportionately Republican. This poll does not attempt to measure how all likely voters in the state of Florida would vote if filling out a ballot today. It attempts to measure early movement among speech-watchers only.

Reaction to individual speeches broke along party lines:

* 79% of Republicans, compared to 35% of Democrats, said Romney’s speech helped his chances to be elected.
* 12% of Republicans, compared to 45% of Democrats, said Eastwood’s speech hurt Romney’s changes to be elected.

In an election for President of the United States in vital Nevada, Barack Obama finishes today, 08/21/12, with a nominal 2-point advantage, 47% Obama, 45% Mitt Romney, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted bilingually for the Las Vegas Review Journal and KLAS-TV 8 News Now. Obama’s edge is within the survey’s possible sources of error and may or may not be significant. Early voting begins in 2 months. In 2008, Obama carried Nevada by 12 points. In 2012, six critical electoral votes are at stake.

* Obama has a single-digit advantage in Las Vegas and a double-digit advantage in the rest of Clark County. Romney leads in greater Reno and the rest of Nevada.
* Romney is backed by 81% of Republicans, 81% of conservatives, 84% of Tea Party members.
* Obama is backed by 82% of Democrats, 83% of liberals.
* Independents break 44% to 39% for Romney.
* Moderates break 57% to 34% for Obama.
* Romney leads among male Nevadans. Obama leads among female Nevadans. There is a 19-point Gender Gap.
* Obama leads among lower-income voters; Romney leads among upper-income voters; middle-income voters split.
* All interviews were conducted after Paul Ryan was named Mitt Romney’s running mate. Ryan attracts to the Romney ticket as many voters as he repels.
* 7 in 10 voters are familiar with Ryan’s thinking on Medicare. Of those familiar: 48% support the Ryan Medicare plan, 47% oppose the Ryan Medicare plan.
* 41% in Nevada have a favorable opinion of Obama, 39% have a favorable opinion of Romney, 35% have a favorable opinion of Ryan.
* 80% of Romney voters and 77% of Obama voters say they cast their vote enthusiastically.

In an election today for United States Senator from Nevada, appointed incumbent Republican Dean Heller, running for his first elected term, leads Democrat Shelley Berkley 44% to 39%.

* Heller has a Minus 3 Net Favorability – 32% view him favorably compared to 35% who view him unfavorably.
* Berkley has a Minus 14 Net Favorability – 29% view her favorably compared to 43% who view her unfavorably.
* There is a 20-point gender gap. Heller, a man, leads by 14 points among men. Berkley, a woman, leads by 6 points among women.
* Independents break for Heller; moderates break for Berkley.
* Heller and Berkley are tied in Las Vegas. Berkley leads in the rest of Clark County; Heller leads decisively in greater Reno and the rest of Nevada.
* 22% of Berkley voters say they cast their vote “with reservations,” compared to 18% of Heller voters.
* Voters who are familiar with a House Ethics Committee investigation of Berkley are 3:1 more likely to vote for Heller than they are to vote for Berkley.
* Of Romney voters, 87% vote for Heller. Of Obama voters, just 76% vote for Berkley.

Research conducted bilingually, in English and in Spanish; cell-phone and home-phone respondents included: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,200 adults from the state of Nevada 08/16/12 through 08/21/12. Of the adults, 985 were registered to vote in Nevada. Of the registered voters, 869 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election for President of the United States. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (79% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Telephone respondents in portions of Nevada with concentrations of Spanish speakers were offered the option to take the survey in their choice of Spanish or English. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (21% of likely voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone or other electronic device. 80% of the interviews for this survey were completed before comments about rape and pregnancy took center stage in the presidential election.

Complete survey results here and here.

By 5:3, Missourians say Congressman Todd Akin, a Republican running for U.S. Senate against incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill, should drop out of the race, following comments about rape and abortion made public 08/19/12, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted 08/20/12 for KSDK-TV in St. Louis, and KSPR-TV and KYTV-TV in Springfield MO.

54% statewide, including a majority of men and women, and a majority of those in 4 of the state’s 5 regions, say Akin should quit the race and allow another Republican to run in his place. 35% say Akin should continue his bid to unseat McCaskill. A large majority, 76%, do not share Akin’s views on rape and pregnancy. But it is important to note that 13% do share his views, including 16% of pro-life voters, 19% of conservatives and 24% of African Americans. Akin says that he mis-spoke. But 55% in Missouri don’t buy it.

Missourians are conflicted about whether Akin’s views are widely held. Just 14% say Akin’s views are shared by “most men”; but 24% say Akin’s views are shared by “most Republicans.”

A SurveyUSA poll completed 08/12/12 for these same media clients had challenger Akin 11 points ahead of incumbent McCaskill.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents were included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 500 state of Missouri adults 08/20/12, after comments made by Todd Akin were made public on 08/19/12. This research was conducted with multi-media, blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (24% of adults) were shown, on their smartphone or other electronic device this video of Akin speaking. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (76% of adults), interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer, heard the audio portion of the above video clip. Caution: Public reaction to fast-moving news events can and does change as new facts emerge. At the time these interviews were conducted, many were denouncing Akin, some were calling for Akin to step down, but Akin had not stepped down at the time of release.

17% of registered voters in the state of Florida say they will change who they will vote for in the election for President as a result of Mitt Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan as Vice President, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted statewide for WFLA-TV in Tampa.

Of those who will change their vote, 57% say they are more likely to vote for Romney, 42% say they are less likely to vote for Romney. The state of Florida is one of the most important swing-states in the country. Florida’s 29 electoral votes are critical to Romney.

Reaction to the Ryan pick breaks along party lines. 82% of Republicans, 91% of Tea Party members, and 86% of conservatives say the selection of Ryan is excellent or good. 57% of Democrats and 51% of liberals say the Ryan selection is bad or very bad.

75% of Republicans say Ryan would be ready to step-in as President if Romney were unable to serve, compared to 28% of Democrats who say Ryan would be ready.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 640 adults from the state of Florida 08/13/12. Of the adults, 590 were registered to vote. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (70% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (30% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop or other electronic device.

In an election today 08/12/12 for President, Mitt Romney has a statistically insignificant advantage over Barack Obama, 45% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSDK-TV in St Louis, KSHB-TV in Kansas City, and KSPR-TV and KYTV-TV in Springfield. Missouri voters split their ticket: the Democratic incumbent leads in the race for Governor and the Republican challenger leads in the nationally significant race for U.S. Senator.

In the race for President: Romney leads by 14 among white voters, which overcomes Obama’s 10:1 advantage among black voters. Romney holds 88% of Republican votes, Obama holds 85% of Democratic votes. Independents split. Moderates break 2:1 for Obama, which keeps the contest close. Romney leads 5:3 among Evangelical voters and 3:1 among Missouri’s pro-life voters. Romney leads 2:1 in Southwest MO and by 16 points in Southeast MO. Obama is bolstered by his showing in greater St. Louis, where he leads by 16. In 2008, John McCain carried Missouri by 1 tenth of 1 percentage point. In 2012, the state’s 10 electoral votes are considered by some to be Romney’s for the taking, but the results of this survey, 12 weeks to Election Day, suggest a tight fight.

In the nationally watched race for U.S. Senator, which could help determine whether Republicans control the Senate, conservative Republican challenger Todd Akin is 11 points atop incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill, 51% to 40%. Akin leads 7:1 among Tea party members. McCaskill holds 80% of the Democratic base, compared to Akin, who holds 91% of the Republican base. Independents favor the Republican by 16 points. Akin leads materially among the less educated; McCaskill ties Akin among college graduates. Akin leads among rich and poor voters. Akin, who is a U.S. Congressman from suburban St. Louis, manages to come within 5 points of McCaskill in the Democratic stronghold of greater St. Louis. Elsewhere in the state, the Republican leads. McCaskill has a 10-point advantage among the youngest voters, but Akin leads among voters age 35+.

In the contest for Governor of Missouri, incumbent Democrat Jay Nixon leads Republican challenger Dave Spence 51% to 37%. Nixon leads 5:3 among Independents and 3:1 among Moderates. As a sign of Nixon’s appeal: 21% of those who vote for the Republican Romney cross over and vote for the Democrat Nixon; 24% of those who vote for the Republican Akin for US Senate cross over and vote for the Democrat Nixon. Nixon leads narrowly among white voters, and leads overwhelmingly among black voters. Spence draws even with Nixon in Southwest MO, but in all other regions of the state, Nixon leads. In 2008, Nixon won with 58% of the vote.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 720 adults from the state of Missouri 08/09/12 through 08/12/12. Of the adults, 654 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 585 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (76% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (24% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop or other electronic device. 43% of the interviews for this survey were completed before Mitt Romney announced that Paul Ryan would be his running mate. 57% of the interviews for this survey were completed after the Ryan announcement. The results of this survey should not be interpreted as a reaction to the Ryan announcement. All interviews were conducted after the 08/07/12 Missouri primary.

In an election for governor of Washington State today, 08/08/12, three months until votes are counted, Democrat Jay Inslee has an advantage over Republican Rob McKenna, 48% to 45%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KING-TV in Seattle.

This is SurveyUSA’s first poll of likely voters in this contest; previous polls on the Governor’s contest have been of registered voters, and are not apples-to-apples comparable. That said: this is the first time in 5 surveys going back to January 2012 that Inslee has led by any margin.

Among likely voters, Inslee leads among moderates, among women, among lower-income voters, and in greater Seattle. McKenna leads in Eastern and Western Washington and among Independents.

All of Inslee’s advantage comes from minority voters. Among whites, the contest is tied. Among Asians and Hispanics, Inslee leads.

* Voters see Inslee as significantly stronger on the environment, see McKenna as slightly stronger on the economy.
* Voters say McKenna would bring more change to Olympia.
* Voters say Inslee better reflects their position on social issues.
* Voters say Inslee is more likeable.

* McKenna has a Plus 16 Net Favorability Rating: 39% have a favorable opinion of McKenna, 23% have an unfavorable opinion.
* Inslee has a Plus 11 Net Favorability Rating: 37% have a favorable opinion of Inslee, 26% have an unfavorable opinion.

* 7 in 10 voters cast their vote for Governor enthusiastically. Inslee and McKenna supporters are equally enthusiastic. 3 in 10 voters cast their vote with reservations.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of Washington adults 08/01/12 and 08/02/12, using blended sample, mixed mode. Of the adults, 597 were registered to vote; of them, 524 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the November general election. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device.

During our ongoing study of the DIY research tool, Google Consumer Surveys, we were today presented with a straightforward question. How many medals would the USA win in the Olympics? But when we went to answer the question, we found that the number 80 had been pre-populated into the answer field. We thought this was odd, and surely would steer respondents to think that 80 was the “correct” answer.

To see how this might have happened, we created our own Google Consumer Surveys project, that asked, “What percent of Americans cannot read?”

Sure enough, More »

48 hours till votes are counted in the Democratic primary for the U.S. House of Representatives in Missouri’s newly-drawn
1st Congressional District, incumbent Lacy Clay defeats odd-man-out Congressman Russ Carnahan, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSDK-TV in St. Louis. Black turnout will decide Clay’s exact margin of victory, but SurveyUSA shows Clay comfortably ahead, 56% to 35%. If the district’s African Americans vote in smaller numbers than SurveyUSA here models, Clay’s margin of victory will be smaller.

White Democratic primary voters go 3:1 for Carnahan, who was redistricted out of his existing seat in Congress. Black Democratic primary voters go 7:1 for Clay.

Carnahan leads 5:2 among Independents, who are permitted to vote in the primary, but that is not enough to overcome Clay’s 2:1 advantage among registered Democratcs. Carnahan leads among conservatives, but that is not enough to overcome Clay’s advantage among moderates and liberals. Clay leads among the less affluent and the more affluent. Clay leads among the more educated and the less educated. Clay leads among young and old.

Looking ahead to the general election in November, the winner of the 08/07/12 Democratic primary (be it Clay or Carnahan) defeats the winner of the 08/07/12 Republican Primary (be it Robyn Hamlin or Martin Baker) by 3:1. Democrats are certain to hold the House Seat.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 registered voters from the state of MO 08/02/12 through 08/04/12 using registration based (voter list) sample from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 490 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to request a Democratic ballot in the 08/07/12 Missouri primary. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (78% of registered voters, 91% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a profesional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (22% of registered voters, 9% of likely voters) were interviewed on their cell phone by trained interviewers, who hand-dialed the phone, read the questions to the respondents, recorded the respondents’ answer, and remained on the line until the call was complete.