In Oregon, Brown and Pierce in Dogfight for Governor Mansion, Every Vote Vital; Clinton Safely Atop Trump; Wyden Well-Positioned for Re-Election to U.S. Senate
26 days till votes are counted in Oregon, Democrat Hillary Clinton is 10 points in front of Republican Donald Trump, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV in Portland. Libertarian Gary Johnson is backed by 6%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets 4%.
Reciprocal efforts by the Trump campaign to suppress Democratic turnout and by the Clinton campaign to suppress Republican turnout may not cause Oregon’s 7 Electoral Votes to flip, but such cross-winds could well make a difference in the state’s fiercely fought Governor’s election.
At the top of the ticket, Clinton leads by 23 points among women; Trump leads by 4 points among men — a 27-point Gender Gap. Clinton leads by 4 points among rural women, leads by 22 points among suburban women. Clinton leads by 21 points among voters under age 50; the candidates run even among voters age 50+.
Clinton holds 91% of the Democratic base. Trump holds 82% of the Republican base. Moderates break for Clinton by 18 points. Independent men vote for Trump by 16 points. Independent women vote for Clinton by 10 points. Voters focused on terrorism, national security and immigration back Trump. Voters focused on the economy, education and the environment back Clinton.
Of Trump supporters, 51% say they are voting “for Trump,” compared to 48% who are voting “against Clinton.” Of Clinton supporters, 64% say they are voting “for Clinton,” compared to 35% who are voting “against Trump.” 52% of Trump backers are “enthusiastic,” compared to 58% of Clinton backers. 44% of Trump backers have reservations about their candidate, compared to 39% of Clinton backers.
Trump carries military households by 23 points, carries Evangelicals by 47 points. Clinton leads by 3 points among the least affluent voters, leads by 10 points among middle-income voters, and leads by 24 points among affluent voters. Trump leads among high-school educated voters, Clinton leads among those who have started college but not finished, and among those with a 4-year college degree.
In an election for Governor today, 10/13/16, 6 days till mail-in voting begins, Democrat Kate Brown leads republican Bud Pierce 46% to 42%. Pierce holds 81% of the GOP base, Brown holds 84% of the Democratic base. Independent men break for Pierce by 14 points. Independent women split. High-school educated men back Pierce by 21 points. College-educated white voters back Brown by 19 points.
Pierce leads among rural men by 24 points; rural women split. Brown leads by 8 points in greater Portland. Pierce leads by a nominal 2 points in the rest of Oregon. Pierce leads by 50 points among Evangelicals and leads by 26 points in military households. Pierce leads overwhelmingly among voters focused on immigration and national security and leads materially among voters focused on terrorism. Brown leads materially among voters focused on the economy and leads overwhelmingly among voters focused on education and the environment.
In the contest for United States Senator from Oregon, Democrat Ron Wyden is cruising to re-election for his 4th full term, today leading Republican Mark Callahan 54% to 32%. Wyden leads among men and women, young and old, rich and poor, whites and non-whites.
Context and methodology: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from the state of Oregon 10/10/16 through 10/12/16. All interviews were conducted after the 2nd Presidential debate on 10/09/13. Of the 800 adults interviewed, 730 were registered to vote. Of the 730 registered voters, 654 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/08/16 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home phones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Barack Obama carried Oregon by 12 points in 2012 and by 16 points in 2008. John Kerry carried Oregon by 4 points in 2004. Al Gore carried Oregon by 3 points in 2000. In 2010, Wyden defeated Republican Jim Huffman by 18 points; Wyden leads by 22 points today. In 2015, Democratic Governor John Kitzhaber resigned, leaving then Secretary of State Brown to take his place.