In CA, 47% of Registered Voters and 15% of Likely GOP Primary Voters Have ‘Extremely Negative’ View of Trump; Still He Leads Cruz Narrowly; Clinton Atop Sanders in Democrat Primary; Harris & Sanchez Likely To Advance for Boxer’s Seat; CA’s Vital 55 Electoral Votes Stay Blue in 2016
Extremely unscripted Donald Trump is viewed extremely unfavorably by half of California’s registered voters and by 15% of Republicans most likely to vote in the state’s 06/07/16 GOP Primary, according to research just completed by SurveyUSA for television stations KABC in Los Angeles, KPIX in San Francisco, KGTV in San Diego, and KFSN in Fresno. 71% of CA women and 75% of CA Latinos view Trump negatively today. But even with this anchor tied to his foot, Trump at this hour continues to lead Ted Cruz, though narrowly, among likely Republican primary voters.
Today, it’s Trump 40%, Cruz 32%, John Kasich 17%. Trump still leads among women, though his comments about women, and his staff’s treatment of women, were in the news during the field period for this survey. Among moderates, Kasich and Trump run effectively even in the GOP Primary, 35% for Trump to 34% for Kasich, with Cruz at 10%. Among those who say they are “somewhat conservative,” Cruz leads Trump 44% to 38%. But among those who are “very conservative,” Trump leads Cruz 45% to 38%. Among primary voters with an “extremely positive” view of Trump, Trump defeats Cruz 8:1. Among those who are “neutral” on Trump, Cruz leads Trump 4:3. And among those who have an “extremely negative” view of Trump, Cruz defeats Trump 10:1. The contest is fluid; much could change between now and 06/07/16. To win all 172 of California’s delegates to the Republican National Convention, Trump, Cruz, or Kasich would need to carry every one of CA’s 53 Congressional Districts.
In the Democratic presidential primary today, it’s Hillary Clinton 53%, Bernie Sanders 39%. Clinton wins the white vote by 6 points, 48% to 42%, and wins the African American vote 3:1. Sanders edges Clinton among single Democratic primary voters; Clinton leads decisively among married voters.
In the open, non-partisan, “Top 2″ primary for United States Senator, to fill the seat that will become open when Democrat Barbara Boxer retires at year-end, Democrat Kamala Harris, the Attorney General of the State of California, and Democrat Loretta Sanchez, a Congresswoman from California’s 46th Congressional District, top 3 other challengers and are likely to advance to the 11/08/16 general election. Republican Phil Wyman and Republican Tom Del Beccaro today tie for 3rd place at 8%, and Republican Duf Sundheim trails at 5%. Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they “always” vote in “every” California primary, and who therefore are the most reliable voters, Harris leads Sanchez today by 11 points, 30% to 19%. A smaller turnout might increase the size of Harris’ primary margin and a larger turnout might narrow the gap between the Top 2 primary finishers, but in any turnout scenario, at this hour, 2 Democrats advance to the general, and Boxer’s seat stays Blue.
In hypothetical November head-to-head presidential match-ups today:
* Hillary Clinton defeats Donald Trump by 34 points, 60% to 26%.
* Hillary Clinton defeats Ted Cruz by 25 points, 57% to 32%.
* Hillary Clinton defeats John Kasich 23 points, 56% to 33%.
* Bernie Sanders defeats Donald Trump by 39 points, 63% to 24%.
* Bernie Sanders defeats Ted Cruz by 35 points, 61% to 26%.
* Bernie Sanders defeats John Kasich by 29 points, 57% to 28%.
Registered voters from all parties were asked, regardless for whom they may vote, which candidate for President would they want sitting in the Oval Office if there were a major terrorist attack on the United States today: 37% say Clinton, 21% say Sanders, 15% say Trump, 9% say Cruz, 5% say Kasich.
About: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,400 state of California adults 03/30/16 through 04/03/16. Of the adults, 1,991 were registered to vote in the state of California. Of the CA registered voters, 356 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 Republican Presidential primary, 767 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 Democratic Presidential primary, 1,269 were determined to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 open, non-partisan U.S. Senate primary, and 1,507 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (58% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (42% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Barack Obama carried CA by 24 points in 2008 and by 23 points in 2012.