* 9 months to the general election, incumbent Democrat Barack Obama defeats possible Republican challenger Ron Paul by 11 points, Mitt Romney by 13 points, Rick Santorum by 19 points and Newt Gingrich by 26 points, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis. The North Star State’s 10 electoral votes are safely blue, for now.

* Incumbent U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar today defeats possible Republican challengers Joe Arwood and Dan Severson 2:1, largely unchanged from a SurveyUSA tracking poll 90 days ago.

* The marriage amendment is supported 5:4, backed by 61% of Republicans, 72% of conservatives. Two previous SurveyUSA polls showed the measure ahead by 11 points in May 2011, ahead by 6 points in November 2011, compared to today, February 2012, ahead by 8 points.

* An amendment that would designate Minnesota as a “right to work” state is supported 2:1, backed by rich and poor, educated and less-educated.

* An amendment to require voters to show a Photo ID is backed 3:1, with majority support among Democrats, Republicans and Independents.

* Governor Mark Dayton’s job performance is approved by 50%, disapproved by 33%, giving the Governor a Plus 17 Net Favorability rating.

* By stark contrast, 17% of Minnesotans approve of the state legislature, 65% disapprove, giving the legislature a Minus 48 Net Favorability rating.

* Minnesotans split on whether state senator Amy Koch should resign office. Men say Koch has been treated the same as a male senator would have been treated. Women say Koch has been treated differently than a man would have been treated.

* Minnesotans remain split on the Metrodome. 1/3 say the Vikings should keep playing without renovating the stadium; 1/3 say the Vikings should renovate the Metrodome but keep playing there, and 1/3 say a new stadium should be built. Gambling, as one way to help pay for a new stadium, is supported 5:4. A downtown casino is preferred over other gambling options. If a new stadium is built, it should be built on the same site, a plurality say.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 600 Minnesota adults 01/31/12 through 02/02/12. Of the adults, 542 were registered to vote. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (78% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents unreachable on a home telephone (22% of registered voters) were shown a visual questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device. In this research, cell-phone and home phone respondents differ on the marriage amendment. Cell-phone respondents are 17 points opposed to an amendment that defines marriage as between one man and one woman. Home-phone respondents are 15 points in favor of the amendment. When the two groups are proportionally blended, the amendment is favored 47% to 39%, as reported here. Similarly: Among cell-phone respondents, Ron Paul and Barack Obama tie. Among home phone respondents, Obama leads by 14. When the two groups are proportionally blended, Obama leads by 11. Similarly: cell-phone respondents by 18 points say Amy Koch should resign the state senate. Home-phone respondents by 3 points say Koch should remain in office. When the two groups are proportionally blended, it’s 42% resign, 41% stay.

Greater Los Angeles supports by 5:4 a decision made by a federal appeals court today, 02/07/12, ruling that California’s Proposition 8 is unconstitutional, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles. Proposition 8, passed by California voters in 2008, defined marriage as being between 1 man and 1 woman. Today, a court set aside the law. By 5:3, Southlanders say the Supreme Court of the United States, if asked to rule on the issue of same-sex marriage, should allow today’s federal appeals court ruling to stand.

Cell phone and home phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 500 adults from the Los Angeles TV viewing area 02/07/12, after the decision by the federal appeals court was announced. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (approximately 74% of adults) were interviewed on a home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents unreachable on a home telephone (approximately 26% of adults) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device.

In a Georgia Primary today, former Georgia congressman Newt Gingrich defeats Mitt Romney, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WXIA-TV Atlanta. Gingrich leads by 17 points among those reached on a landline telephone. Romney leads by 8 among those unreachable on a landline phone. When the two groups are proportionately blended, it’s Gingrich 45%, Romney 32%, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul are in single digits. Gingrich leads 2:1 among those who say they are “strong Republicans” and among evangelicals. Gingrich leads 4:1 among those who say they are “very conservative.”

Gingrich in Georgia has a Net Favorability of Minus 7. Romney has a Net Favorability of Minus 17. Still, that is enough for either Republican to defeat Barack Obama in the general election in November, and keep Georgia’s 16 electoral votes safely Republican red. Against Romney, Obama loses Georgia by 8. Against Gingrich, Obama loses Georgia by 6. In 2008, Obama lost Georgia to John McCain by 5 points.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 1,340 state of Georgia adults 02/01/12 and 02/02/12, after results of the 01/31/12 Florida primary were known. Of the adults, 1,144 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 459 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 03/06/12 Georgia Republican Primary. This research was conducted with blended sample, multi-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (78% of registered voters, 87% of likely Republican Primary voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents unreachable on a home telephone (22% of registered voters, 13% of likely Republican Primary voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device. In this research, cell-phone respondents vote differently than landline respondents. Obama defeats Romney by 4 points among cell phone respondents, but loses to Romney by 12 points among home-phone respondents. Obama defeats Gingrich by 6 points among cell-phone respondents, but loses to Gingrich by 9 points among home-phone respondents.

14 pollsters competed in the Florida Republican Primary. Only 2 pollsters released real-time poll results on how cell phone respondents and home phone respondents voted, so scholars could compare the two groups. Turns out: those 2 pollsters, Marist Institute and SurveyUSA, had the smallest error (the best performance) of the 14 competing pollsters.

Not all pollsters who excluded cell respondents had large errors, but the single largest error of the 14 pollsters came from a polling firm that did not include cell respondents. Chart below illustrates.

Quinnipiac University, which reports it dialed cell phones but did not release the results of cell respondents versus home phone respondents, also had an error of 0.25, using the Mosteller 5 scientific measure. Quinnipiac said Romney would win by 14 points.

Mitt Romney is poised for a decisive win in Tuesday’s 01/31/12 Florida Presidential Primary, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. The victory will give Romney 50 additional delegates, and bring his total to 69, on the march to the 1,144 delegates needed to be nominated by the Republican Party. Because Florida is one of the few “winner take all” states in 2012, the size of Romney’s victory is not as important as in a proportionally allocated state, but SurveyUSA’s final numbers show Romney 15 points atop Gingrich, 41% to 26%.Romney is ahead in every region of the state. Gingrich draws to within single digits among Evangelicals, pro-life voters, Tea Party voters, and younger voters, but Romney overwhelms with a 25-point advantage among the affluent, a 20-point advantage among the college educated, a 20-point advantage among women, and a 19-point advantage among voters age 50+. There is effectively no difference between those who have already voted and those who have not yet voted, so a late Gingrich surge is not anticipated.

Rick Santorum and Ron Paul finish tied, for 3rd place, at 12%, with half as many votes as Gingrich.

Over the course of 3 SurveyUSA tracking polls going back to 12/07/11, Romney succeeded in helping to erode Gingrich’s favorability numbers from Plus 54 to Plus 11. See the interactive tracking graph for a window into which demographic groups were most receptive to the attacks on Gingrich. Interactive Tracking Graphs are a SurveyUSA exclusive. Over the same 3 tracking polls, Romney’s favorability remained effectively unchanged, at Plus 30.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. Using voter list sample from Aristotle, SurveyUSA interviewed 500 registered Florida Republicans who have voted in past primary elections and who identified themselves as being certain to vote in this primary. Interviews conducted 01/27/12 through 01/29/12. Interviews conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents who use a landline (home) telephone (70% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who do not use a home telephone (30% of likely voters) were contacted by live operators, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the cooperation of the respondent, asked the questions, recorded the answers, and remained on the phone until the completion of the interview. In these results, Ron Paul’s support among cell phone respondents is 5 times greater than among landline respondents. Florida should have 99 “winner take all” delegates at stake, but because Florida jumped the line and moved its primary earlier than had been recommended by the Republican National Committee, the state is penalized and will award 50 instead of 99 delegates. The Republican National Convention begins 08/27/12 in Tampa. Gingrich hopes that a majority of the delegates seated at the national convention will be non-Romney delegates and that Gingrich will survive Florida to fight another day.

50% of Californians contacted immediately after President Barack Obama concluded his state of the union address Tuesday night, 01/24/12, said the speech was “just right,” compared to 29% who thought speech too ambitious and 9% thought it too timid. By 2:1, those who watched the speech say Obama will be re-elected in November 2012.

57% say Obama has the right plan for American energy independence; 22% say he has the wrong plan and 13% say Obama has no plan for energy independence.

Of all Californians, not just those who watched the speech, 34% say the USA is headed in the right direction; 59% say the USA is headed in the wrong direction.

33% of Californians say the USA is better off than it was a year ago, at the last State of the Union address; 38% say the USA is worse off. 28% say they personally are better off than a year ago, 34% say they are worse off.

Research conducted 01/24/12 for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego and KFSN-TV Fresno. Full poll results here.

For Governor: Rob McKenna (R) 3 points atop Jay Inslee (D), a tight fight as each previous SurveyUSA poll has shown. McKenna today is seen as stronger on managing the state budget and on education. Inslee is seen as stronger on the environment and slightly stronger on social issues. 1 in 3 voters, disproportionately Independents and Moderates, say they may change their mind. Contest likely to be fiercely fought through 2012.

For U.S. Senator:  Maria Cantwell (D) 9 points atop Michael Baumgartner (R). Incumbent well positioned.

For Attorney General: Bob Ferguson (D) and Reagan Dunn (R) effectively even in the fight to fill the seat being vacated by Rob McKenna. The Republican leads among men; the Democrat leads among women.
On Washington state’s numerous ballot measures:

* Same-sex marriage: WA split.

* Half cent increase in sales tax: 3:2 supported.

* Legalizing marijuana: 5:4 supported.

* Removal of automatic ticketing cameras: 2:1 supported.

* Adding new state income tax on the wealthy: 5:3 supported.

* Banning plastic bags: 5:3 opposed.

WA Republicans say Mitt Romney has the best chance to beat Barack Obama in November.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults 01/12/12 through 01/16/12. Of them, 617 were registered to vote. This research was conducted multi-mode, using blended sample. Respondents who use a home telephone (78% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home phone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents unreachable on a home telephone (22% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop, tablet or other electronic device.

An overwhelming majority of Florida Republicans tell SurveyUSA that they will watch tonight’s 01/23/12 NBC Republican Presidential debate, and of those who will watch, nearly half say they may change their mind depending on what they see, according to an exclusive poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa.

50% of debate watchers say their mind is made up.
44% say they will be watching tonight’s debate with an open mind.

Who will win next week’s Florida primary? 43% say Mitt Romney will win. 42% say Newt Gingrich will win. Caution: Republicans were not asked who they will vote for. They were asked, regardless of who they may vote for, who do they think will win the 01/31/12 primary.

Half of Florida Republicans say Republicans will capture Florida’s 29 pivotal electoral college votes in November 2012 no matter which candidate the Republicans nominate. 1/3 of Republicans say whether Republicans carry Florida in November depends on which candidate the GOP nominates.

Asked who has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama in November, Florida Republicans split. 41% say Romney has has the best chance; 36% say Gingrich has the best chance.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. 500 registered Republican voters from the state of Florida were interviewed by SurveyUSA 01/22/12, after the results of the 01/21/12 South Carolina primary were known, but before NBC’s scheduled 01/23/12 debate at USF. 89% of Republicans were reached on a home phone and interviewed in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. 11% of Republicans were unreachable on a home phone and were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop, tablet or other electronic device.

3 weeks to the Florida GOP Presidential Primary, Mitt Romney is positioned to capture the state’s 50 delegates, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV in Tampa.On the eve of the New Hampshire Primary, and before South Carolina votes, Florida sets up: Romney at 36%, Newt Gingrich at 25%, Rick Santorum at 17%, with Ron Paul and others in single digits. Florida’s primary is “closed”; only registered Republicans may vote; unlike Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina, independents may not vote.

Encouraging signs for Mitt Romney:

• Among evangelicals, Romney holds a narrow lead, a direct result of Gingrich and Santorum splitting the evangelical vote.

• Among pro-life voters, Romney holds a narrow lead, a direct result of Gingrich and Santorum splitting the pro-life vote.

• Among voters who say same-sex couples should be given “no legal recognition,” Romney holds a narrow lead, a direct result of Gingrich and Santorum splitting the “no legal recognition” vote.

• Among moderates (one quarter of likely Florida Republican primary voters), Romney leads 2:1. Among conservatives (half of FL GOP primary voters), Romney leads 3:2. Only among those who describe themselves as “very conservative” (one quarter of primary voters) does Santorum nose ahead of Romney, with Gingrich right behind.

• Romney leads in all 5 regions of the state.

• Romney leads among lower-income, middle-income and upper income voters.

• Romney leads among less-educated voters and more-educated voters.

• Romney leads among both men and women.

• Romney leads among both young and old.

• Only among tea-party members (15% of likely primary voters), does Romney finish 3rd, behind Gingrich and Santorum.

Compared to SurveyUSA’s most recent poll in Florida, released one month ago, after Herman Cain had dropped out but before interest groups in Iowa and elsewhere began attacking Newt Gingrich, the contest is materially changed. Then, Gingrich led Romney in Florida by 22 points. Today, Gingrich trails Romney by 11, a 33-point swing. Then, prior to a strong finish in Iowa, Santorum in Florida was at 2%. Today, Santorum in Florida is at 17%. Click on the “Triangle T” where you see it, to open interactive tracking graphs, a SurveyUSA exclusive.

• Romney’s net favorability among Florida GOP Primary voters is Plus 39 (57% favorable, 18% unfavorable).
• Gingrich’s net favorability is Plus 30 (51% favorable, 21% unfavorable).
• Santorum’s net favorability is Plus 29 (47% favorable, 18% unfavorable).
• Paul’s net favorability is Minus 28 (18% favorable, 46% unfavorable).

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. Using voter list sample from Aristotle, SurveyUSA interviewed 500 registered Florida Republicans who have voted in past primary elections and who identified themselves as being certain to vote in this primary. All interviews conducted 01/08/12, after the 01/07/12 ABC News debate and after the 01/08/12 NBC News debate, but before the 01/10/12 New Hampshire Primary. Interviews conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents who use a landline (home) telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who do not use a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were contacted by live operators, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the cooperation of the respondent, asked the questions, recorded the answers, and remained on the phone until the completion of the interview. In these results, Mitt Romney does equally well among home-phone and cell-phone respondents. Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum do materially worse among cell-phone respondents. Gingrich would trail Romney by 8 points, not 11 points, if cell-phone respondents had not been included. Florida should have 99 “winner take all” delegates at stake, but because Florida jumped the line and moved its primary earlier than had been recommended by the Republican National Committee, the state is penalized and will award 50 instead of 99 delegates. Unlike many other states in 2012, Florida’s delegates are not apportioned among the candidates. 1,144 delegates are needed to win the nomination.