3 Days Till Voting in City of San Diego Begins, Measure C Headed for Defeat; Measure D Might Get Simple Majority, But Unlikely to Get 2/3 of Votes Cast

SurveyUSA Operations - 135 days ago

30 days till votes are counted, City of San Diego voters are almost certain not to give Measure C the 2/3 majority that it would need to pass, according to a SurveyUSA pre-election poll conducted for KGTV-TV and the Union Tribune newspaper. Measure D, which some say needs a simple majority and others say needs a 2/3 majority, might end up with a simple majority, but is unlikely to pass by 2:1, which may be the threshold a court in arrears decides that D needs to become law. It is also possible that neither measure will pass.

Measure C, sponsored by the Chargers football team, trails 41% to 36% at this hour. Some of the money the city would collect if C becomes law could go to build a new stadium for the Chargers. Measure C is backed by men, Republicans, young voters and the city’s black and Latino populations. Measure C is opposed by whites, women, independents and Democrats, and voters of every income level. 23% of likely voters tell SurveyUSA they are not yet certain how they will vote on C. If those uncertain voters are removed, the measure today is defeated 53% to 47%.

Measure D, created by a coalition of community leaders and environmental groups, which some see as more ambitious and more complex than Measure C, is backed today 32% to 26%. 42% of likely voters tell SurveyUSA they are not yet certain how they will vote on D. If those uncertain voters are removed, Measure D passes today 55% to 43%. That would be more than a simple majority but short of a 2:1 supermajority.

At this hour, D is backed by a broad coalition, which includes both men and women … voters under age 65 … whites, Latinos and Asians … Republicans, Democrats and Independents … moderates and liberals … rich and poor … well-educated and poorly-educated. Only “very conservative” voters oppose D. D-backers should temper enthusiasm with the caution that follows in the next paragraph.

Context and Methodology: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 city of San Diego adults 10/04/16 through 10/06/16. Of the adults, 587 were registered to vote in the state of California. Of the registered, 571 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote before the 11/08/16 deadline. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (63% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (37% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Polling ballot measures and citizen initiatives is an inexact science. In general, having nothing to do with California specifically, nothing to do with San Diego specifically, nothing to do with football specifically, and having nothing to do with 2016 uniquely, opposition to a ballot measure increases as Election Day approaches. Rarely does support for a ballot measure increase over time. Most ballot measures trailing weeks before Election Day go down to defeat. Some ballot measures which appear headed for passage weeks before Election Day also go down to defeat. Use caution in interpreting results of Measure D.

New Mexico Whites Split, But Clinton Carries the State With Overwhelming Support from Latino Voters; Democrat Toulouse Oliver Well Positioned To Defeat Republican Espinoza in Secretary of State Contest

SurveyUSA Operations - 137 days ago

Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson captures 14% of the vote for President of the United States in an election in New Mexico today, 10/03/16, 19 days till early voting begins, but that is not enough to derail Democrat Hillary Clinton, who defeats Donald Trump at this hour 46% to 33%, with Green Party candidate Jill Stein finishing 4th behind Johnson at 2%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KOB-TV, the Hubbard Broadcasting station in Albuquerque.

Trump carries white voters by a nominal 2 percentage points, 42% to 40%, but Clinton buries Trump among New Mexico’s Latino voters, 52% to 21%. Clinton holds 83% of the Democratic base, compared to just 76% of Republican who stand with Trump. Johnson siphons 24% of the Independent vote, where Clinton manages 35% to Trump’s 29%. Clinton leads among college-educated whites by 22 points. She leads among suburban women by 21 points. She leads among the most affluent voters by 15 points.

Half of Trump supporters say they are voting “for” Trump, half say they are voting “against” Clinton. By contrast, 66% of Clinton supporters are voting “for” Clinton; just 33% are voting “against” Trump. Of those who are voting for Johnson, 21% say they are voting “against” Trump, 5% are voting “against” Clinton, and 70% are voting “for” Johnson. Voters who say the economy is the most important issue facing the country back Clinton 49% to 31%. Voters focused on terrorism or immigration back Trump. Voters focused on education or the environment back Clinton.

In the contest to fill the open seat for New Mexico Secretary of State, Democrat Maggie Toulouse Oliver is well positioned to defeat Republican Nora Espinoza, 54% to 34%. Toulouse Oliver, the Bernalillo County Clerk, is backed by 57% of Latinos, 59% of seniors and 60% of college-educated voters. She gets 90% of the vote among “very liberal” voters. Espinoza gets 68% of the vote among “very conservative” voters, but trails Toulouse Oliver in every region of the state and among voters of all ages.

Context and Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of NM adults 09/28/16 through 10/02/16. Of the adults, 682 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 594 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before 11/08/16 in the Presidential election; 524 were likely to vote in the Secretary of State contest. 5% of registered voters say they almost always vote in Presidential elections but will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates. An offsetting 7% of voters tell SurveyUSA they almost never vote in Presidential election, but will vote in 2016 because they are uniquely drawn to one of the candidates. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (69% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (31% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Democrat Barack Obama defeated Republican Mitt Romney by 10 points in 2012 and defeated Republican John McCain by 15 points in 2008. In 2004 and 2000, Democrats John Kerry and Al Gore carried New Mexico by less than 1 percentage point. New Mexico’s last elected Secretary of State, Republican Dianna Duran, resigned after pleading guilty to felony embezzlement and money laundering. The seat is open. Gary Johnson was elected Governor of New Mexico in 1994 and 1998. He ran as a Republican.

Clinton, Trump Neck-and-Neck in NC; Burr and Ross Just as Close in Senate Match-up; Can Cooper and HB2 Flip Governor’s Seat to Blue?

SurveyUSA Operations - 137 days ago

In an election for President of the United States held in North Carolina today, 10/04/16, 16 days until early voting begins, Hillary Clinton edges Donald Trump 46% to 44%, according to this latest exclusive WRAL-TV News Poll conducted by SurveyUSA. 5% of likely voters today vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson; 6% are undecided.

Clinton leads by 12 points among women; Trump leads by 9 among men — a 21 point gender gap. Trump leads by 20 among white voters; Clinton leads by 75 among African Americans. Clinton holds 91% of the Democratic base; Trump holds 87% of Republicans. Independents narrowly break for Trump. Trump leads in Charlotte and to the west, as well as in greater Greensboro; Clinton leads in greater Raleigh. The candidates tie in the southern and coastal portions of the state. Suburban men narrowly back Trump; suburban woman strongly support Clinton. Voters focused on health care support Clinton 2:1; voters most focused on the economy back Clinton by an 8-point margin. Those most focused on immigration support Trump 4:1; those focused on national security support Trump 5:3.

In the race for United States Senate, incumbent Republican Richard Burr narrowly leads Democrat Deborah Ross, 46% to 44%. Libertarian Sean Haugh takes 3%; 7% are undecided. Burr, who is seeking his third term, leads by 12 points among men and by 20 points among white voters. Ross, a former General Assembly member from Raleigh, leads by 7 points among women and by 57 among African Americans. Ross leads 2:1 among those who almost never attend religious services; Burr leads 5:3 among those who attend regularly.

Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper leads incumbent Republican Pat McCrory by 4 points in the race for Governor, 48% to 44%. Independents, who break for the Republicans in the Presidential and US Senate races, here narrowly favor the Democrat, who also leads nearly 2:1 among moderates. Suburban men are divided; suburban women back Cooper by 21 points. McCrory, seeking his second term, previously was mayor of Charlotte for 14 years. Charlotte and western Carolina voters narrowly favor McCrory by a 5-point margin; those in the Greensboro area support McCrory by 6 points. Cooper leads by 24 points in the Raleigh area; voters elsewhere split. Cooper has strong support among voters focused on HB2, on education, and on health care. McCrory has strong support among voters focused on the economy, public safety, and taxes.

52% of registered voters today say they disapprove of House Bill 2, the state law passed in March. 35% say they approve of HB2. 64% say the law has hurt North Carolina’s national image. 65% say it has hurt the state’s ability to attract and keep businesses.

In the wake of NBA, NCAA, and ACC basketball events being pulled from North Carolina, 47% say the state legislature and governor bears the responsibility for the associated financial losses to the state. 31% put the blame on the leagues themselves. Another 12% say the Charlotte City Council bears the most responsibility.

44% say HB2 should be entirely repealed; 19% say the law should be repealed but its restrictions on restroom use should be left in place. 14% say some other combination of changes should be made; 15% say the law should be left as it is.

51% of likely voters say a candidate’s position on HB2 will strongly influence how they vote this November; 28% say it will somewhat influence their vote. 15% say it will have no impact.

Context and Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of North Carolina adults 09/29/16 through 10/03/16. Of the adults, 728 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 656 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before 11/08/16 in the Presidential election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Republican Mitt Romney defeated Democrat Barack Obama by 2 points in 2012; Obama defeated Republican John McCain by less than 1 point in 2008. North Carolina has 15 electoral votes.

After 1st Debate, Clinton Tip-Toes 1 Point Further Ahead of Trump in CA; Sanchez Closes-In on Harris for Senate; Recreational Marijuana Ballot Proposition Clings to Narrow Advantage, 40 Days till Votes Are Counted, 11 Days Until Early Voting Begins

SurveyUSA Operations - 142 days ago

Hillary Clinton’s lead in California has increased ever-so-slightly in the 3 days immediately following the first Presidential debate, according to a SurveyUSA pre-election tracking poll conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno.

Clinton today leads Trump by 26 points in California, 59% to 33%, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 3% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 3 weeks ago, Clinton is up 2 points, Trump is up 1 point.

Clinton today leads by 35 points among all women (up 5 points from 3 weeks ago), leads by 28 points among suburban moms (unchanged), and leads by 52 points among single moms (unchanged). Clinton leads by 14 points among white voters, by 4 points among Asian American voters, by 50 points among Latino voters, and by 71 points among African American voters. Clinton leads by 39 points among 1st-generation Californians (those whose parents were born in another country). Clinton holds 96% of the Democratic base, Trump holds 81% of the Republican base. Independents break for Clinton by 7 points. Moderates break for Clinton by 34 points.

Trump leads Clinton by 5 points among gun owners. Trump leads by 24 points in the Inland Empire. The candidates run even in Central CA, but Clinton leads 2:1 in Greater Los Angeles and 3:1 in the Bay Area. Clinton leads by 54 points among Catholics. Clinton leads by 34 points in union households. Of those voting for Trump, 64% do so enthusiastically. Of those voting for Clinton, 71% do so enthusiastically. Of those voting for Trump, 43% say they are voting “against Clinton.” Of those voting for Clinton, 25% say they are voting “against Trump.”

In an election today for United States Senator from CA, to replace retiring Democrat Barbara Boxer, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Democrat Loretta Sanchez, 40% to 29%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 3 weeks ago, Harris is down 4 points, Sanchez is up 2 points, a 6-point swing towards Sanchez. Harris leads by 13 points among white voters, by 57 points among African American voters and by 19 points among Asian Americans. Sanchez leads by 6 points among California’s Latinos. Sanchez leads by 10 points among Republicans (there is no Republican on the ballot for U.S. Senate in 2016), Harris leads by 23 points among Democrats.

Sanchez leads among lower-income voters, among high-school educated voters, among rural voters, among voters who have lived in California less than 10 years, and among smokers. Those who voted for Carly Fiorina for Senate in 2010 back Sanchez by 8 points in 2016. Those who voted for Boxer in 2010 back Harris by 30 points.

Ballot Measures:

Proposition 56, which would increase the tax on cigarettes to $2 per pack, is favored to pass 61% to 33%.
Proposition 62, which would end the death penalty in CA and replace it with life in prison, trails by 15 points today and is headed for defeat.
Proposition 63, which outlaws large-capacity magazines and requires background checks on ammo purchases, leads by more than 2:1 and will pass.
Proposition 64, which would legalize, regulate and tax recreational marijuana, is supported 52% to 41%. Caution advised.

Statewide Favorability Ratings:

President Obama is viewed extremely favorably by 36% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 23%.
Trump is viewed extremely favorably by 14% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 51%. Clinton is viewed extremely favorably by 24% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 31%.
Governor Jerry Brown is viewed extremely favorably by 14% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 18%.
Dianne Feinstein is viewed extremely favorably by 14% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 18%.
Boxer is viewed extremely favorably by 13% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 23%.

Context and Methodology:

SurveyUSA interviewed 900 state of California adults 09/27/16 and 09/28/16. All interviews were conducted after the first Presidential debate on 09/26/16. Of the adults, 817 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 732 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. Of registered voters, 2% tell SurveyUSA they almost always vote in a Presidential election but will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates. 5% of voters tell SurveyUSA they almost never vote in Presidential elections but will vote in 2016 because they are particularly drawn to one of the candidates. The survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (60% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (40% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the screen of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Polling ballot measures and citizen initiatives is an inexact science. In general, having nothing to do with California specifically and having nothing to do with 2016 uniquely, opposition to a ballot measure increases as Election Day approaches. Rarely does support for a ballot measure increase over time. It is likely that opposition to Propositions 56, 62, 63 and 64 will increase once early voting begins on 10/10/16. This may alter the calculus on recreational marijuana Proposition 64, which today has the most fragile advantage of those measures tested. Barack Obama carried California by 23 points in 2012 and by 24 points in 2008.

In Minnesota, Clinton 7 Atop Trump on Eve Of 1st Presidential Debate:

SurveyUSA Operations - 146 days ago

Minnesota’s 10 Electoral Votes at this hour appear likely to remain blue, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities.

When likely voters are presented with 4 candidates for President, including Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, both of whom are on the ballot in 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton tops Republican Donald Trump, 46% to 39%, with Johnson at 6% and Stein at 2%. When the same likely voters are asked how they would vote if the only choice were between Clinton and Trump, Clinton’s margin shrinks ever-so-slightly from 7 points to 6 points, 49% to 43%.

Trump leads 11:1 among Strong Republicans, but Clinton leads 24:1 among Strong Democrats. That difference, on the extreme ends of the political spectrum, lays the groundwork for Clinton to carry the state. Among very conservative voters, 15% defect to Clinton, triple the number of very liberal voters who defect to Trump. Trump leads among evangelicals 2:1, leads among rural men by 2:1, leads among high school educated men by 5:2, leads in military households by 5:3, leads in Western MN by 3:2 and leads in Northeastern MN 5:4. Clinton leads by 18 points among those with a 4-year college degree, leads by 16 points among seniors, leads by 15 points among women, leads by 15 points in the greater Twin Cities and by 11 points in Southern MN. Trump battles Clinton to a draw among middle-income voters, but Clinton leads by 12 points among the least affluent voters and by 9 points among the most affluent voters.

Trump leads among voters focused on immigration, terrorism and national security. Clinton leads among voters focused on the economy, the environment and education. Trump leads by 20 points among independent men. Clinton leads by 10 points among independent women. In rural Minnesota, Trump leads 2:1 among men, runs even with Clinton among women. In suburban Minnesota, Trump leads by 4 among men, Clinton leads by 13 among women.

52% of those voting for Clinton say they cast their ballot enthusiastically, compared with 54% of Trump voters. 45% of Clinton voters say they cast their vote “with reservations,” compared to 44% of Trump voters. 58% of Clinton voters are voting “for” Clinton, compared to 39% who are voting “against Trump.” 52% of Trump voters are voting “for Trump,” compared to 46% who are voting “against Clinton.”

Filtering and Context: 

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Minnesota adults 09/16/16 through 09/20/16. Of the adults, 743 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 625 were determined by SurveyUSA to return a ballot on or before the 11/08/16 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (65% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (35% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. 6% of registered voters tell SurveyUSA that they almost always vote in a Presidential election but will not this year, because they do not like the candidates on the ballot. 2% of registered voters tell SurveyUSA they almost never vote in a Presidential election but will this year because they are particularly drawn to one of the candidates. Minnesota last voted for a Republican for President in 1972, when Richard Nixon carried 49 states. In 2012, Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 8 points. In 2008, Obama defeated John McCain by 10 points. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry defeated George W. Bush by 3 points in Bush’s attempt for a 2nd term. In 2000, Democrat Al Gore defeated Bush by 2 points in Bush’s bid for a 1st term.

Do-Si-Do in Fresno: Brand and Perea Still Tied, Though Now The Conservative Is Ahead By a Point

SurveyUSA Operations - 148 days ago

In an election for Mayor of Fresno today, Lee Brand and Henry R. Perea remain tied in a jump-ball election for the city’s open seat, according to the latest ABC30 News Poll. Today, Brand leads by a nominal 1 point, 45% to 44%. 5 weeks ago, in an identical SurveyUSA poll, also conducted for KFSN-TV, Perea led Brand by a nominal 2 points. Both results are within the pre-election poll’s theoretical margin of sampling error. The 3-point swing from August to September in favor of Brand could be just statistical noise.

That said, there are troubling signs for Perea: In mid-August, Perea led by 49 points among the city’s Latino voters. Today he leads by 30. Brand’s support among Latinos is up from 20% then to 30% now. Among white voters, the contest is unchanged: Brand led by 20 points in August and leads by 20 points today.

Among seniors, who are the most reliable voters, Brand had led by 4 points, now leads by 11. Among voters age 18 to 34, who are the least reliable voters, Perea had led by 14 points, now leads by 21 points. The younger the 11/08/16 electorate, the better Perea will do.

Brand’s support is conservative and affluent. Perea is backed by liberals, moderates, voters with a high-school education and lower-income voters.

5 weeks ago, Brand and Perea were tied among voters who said that crime was the most important issue facing the new Mayor. Today, Brand leads by 8 in that cohort. Conversely, among voters who say that economic development is the most important city issue, Brand had led by 6 points, but now trails Perea by 18.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from the city of Fresno 09/19/16 through 09/21/16. Of the adults, 720 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 549 likely to vote in a contest “today.” This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Sitting Fresno mayor Ashley Swearengin is term limited. Swearengin won election in 2008 by defeating Henry R. Perea’s son, Henry T. Perea.

Could 2016 Be 1st Time That Maine Electoral Votes Split? Trump Up By 10 Points in 2nd Congressional District; Clinton Up By 18 in 1st District; 54% Give Republican Governor LePage Vote of ‘No Confidence’; GOP Incumbent Poliquin Has Slight Edge in Re-Match with Democrat Cain

SurveyUSA Operations - 158 days ago

For the first time in Maine’s history, the state’s electoral votes may not all go to one candidate, according to a SurveyUSA poll commissioned by Colby College of Waterville, Maine, and the Boston Globe newspaper.

In what should be a solid-blue state, Democrat Hillary Clinton today barely edges Republican Donald Trump 42% to 39%, eight weeks till votes are counted. Should Clinton carry the state on Election Day, she would pick up at least 3 of the state’s 4 electoral votes. But Maine does not allocate its electoral votes “winner take all.” Maine awards two votes to the statewide winner, and one additional vote to the winner of each of the state’s two U.S. Congressional Districts. Today, Trump leads Clinton by 10 points in C.D. #2. This single electoral vote is inconsequential in a landslide, but in a close race, and depending on how the chips fall in other states, Northern Maine’s half-a-million residents could be kingmakers.

30 days until early-voting begins:

Clinton, who leads by 3, is running 12 points weaker than Barack Obama did in 2012, when he carried Maine by 15 points. Not since 2000, when Democrat Al Gore carried Maine by 5 percentage points, has the state been this closely contested. A 38-point Gender Gap carves up the state. Trump carries Maine men by 17 points. Clinton carries Maine women by 21 points. Trump holds 86% of the Republican base, surrendering 8% to Libertarian Gary Johnson, who polls at 9% overall, but who draws 4 times as many Republican votes as he does Democrat. Clinton holds 88% of the Democratic base, surrendering 5% to Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Independent voters split, 34% Clinton, 34% Trump, 14% Johnson, 9% Stein. (Independent candidate Evan McMullin is not on the ballot in Maine.)

In the 1st Congressional District, which includes greater Portland, along the coast to Camden and up though Augusta and Waterville, Clinton leads Trump by 18 points, 49% to 31%. Regardless of whether Clinton carries the state, she is almost certain to carry this Congressional District, ensuring her of 1 electoral vote. In the 2nd Congressional District, which includes Lewiston and Auburn, Bangor, northern and rural parts of the state and Downeast, Trump leads Clinton by 10 points, 47% to 37%. Those who envision a possible 269-to-269 electoral-vote tie as one 2016 outcome, see Maine’s 2nd District as critical for Trump. Since 1972, when Maine first set up its current allocation system, the state’s 4 electoral votes have always gone to 1 candidate. If CD #2 goes one way and the rest of the state goes another, it will be the first time in history.

Of Trump supporters, 63% say they are voting “for” Trump; 37% say they are voting “against” Clinton. Of Clinton supporters, 64% say they are voting “for” Clinton; 35% say they are voting “against” Trump. 73% of Trump voters cast their vote enthusiastically, compared to 26% who vote for Trump with reservations. 65% of Clinton voters cast their vote enthusiastically, compared to 34% who vote for Clinton with reservations.

Trump leads among voters under age 50. Clinton leads among voters age 50+. Trump leads by 16 points among voters with a high-school education. Clinton leads by 22 points among voters with a 4-year college degree. Clinton leads among the most affluent and least affluent voters. Trump leads among middle-income voters.

In Maine’s 1st Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Chellie Pingree is poised for easy re-election to her 5th term, today 20 points atop Republican challenger Mark Holbrook. In Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, incumbent Republican Bruce Poliquin, first elected in 2014 when the seat was open, seeks his 2nd term. Today, Poliquin leads Democratic challenger Emily Cain 50% to 45% in a 2014 re-match, when Poliquin defeated Cain 47% to 42%. (Independent Blaine Richardson received 11% of the 2014 vote; there is no independent on the 2016 Congressional ballot.)

54% of Mainers statewide, including 90% of Democrats, 63% of women, 62% of college-educated voters and 56% of Independents, today say they have no confidence in Republican Governor Paul LePage’s ability to govern. 40% of Mainers, including 85% of Republicans, say they have confidence in LePage. Of those with no confidence in LePage, 72% vote for Clinton. Of those with confidence in LePage, 81% vote for Trump. LePage is viewed extremely unfavorably by 48% of voters, compared to just 18% who view him extremely favorably. 64% of Mainers say the level of civility in Maine politics has gotten worse since LePage took office in 2010, 4 times as many as say that civility under LePage has gotten better. When voters are asked about a hypothetical 2018 match-up for United States Senator between Independent incumbent Angus King and LePage, King wipes the floor with LePage, 59% to 37%.

Context and Methodology: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 adults from the state of Maine 09/04/16 through 09/10/16. Of the adults 903 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 779 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/08/16 general election. Of the likely voters, 382 were from the 1st Congressional District (with a theoretical margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points in either direction), 397 were from the 2nd Congressional District (with a theoretical margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.0 percentage points in either direction). This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. The last time a Republican carried Maine was in 1988, when George H.W. Bush of Kennebunkport defeated Democrat Michael Dukakis by 12 points. In 1992, Bill Clinton carried the state by 8 points over Independent Ross Perot, with Bush finishing 3rd. In 1996, Clinton carried the state by 21 points over Republican Bob Dole. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry carried the state by 9 points over George W. Bush. In 2008, Obama carried the state by 17 points. During the field period for this survey, Libertarian Johnson asked, “What is Aleppo?” during a TV interview. It is unclear whether Johnson’s support will diminish or be unaffected by this perceived gaffe, and how that might impact Trump’s support. Most of the interviews for this survey were completed before Clinton called some Trump supporters a “basket of deplorables.” All of the interviews for this survey were completed before Clinton experienced a medical episode during a 09/11 memorial service in New York City. Nebraska is the only other state that allocates electoral votes by Congressional District.

8 Weeks Till Votes Are Counted, Trump Now Well Positioned to Carry Kansas; GOP Incumbent Moran Sailing to 2nd Term in U.S. Senate

SurveyUSA Operations - 158 days ago

A month ago, SurveyUSA polling for KSN News found Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton in Kansas, but 60% of those supporting Trump said they were voting “against Clinton,” compared to just 39% who were voting “for Trump.” Today, the tide has turned, new KSN polling shows. Trump now leads Clinton in Kansas by 12 points, 48% to 36%, up from a 5-point lead a month ago, and 57% today who support Trump are voting “for” him, compared to now 38% of Trump backers who are “against” Clinton — a complete transformation.

A month ago, 50% of Trump voters backed him enthusiastically, now 55%, an increase of 5 points.
A month ago, 46% of Trump voters supported him with reservations, now 43%, a drop of 3 points.

The news for Clinton is bad:

A month ago, 66% of Clinton backers were “for” her, compared to 55% today, a drop of 11 points.
A month ago, 31% of Clinton backers were “against” Trump, now 43%, an increase of 12 points.
A month ago, 63% of Clinton backers were enthusiastic, today 51%, a drop of 12 points.
A month ago, 35% of Clinton backers supported her with reservations, today 46%, an increase of 11 points.
A month ago, 44% of all voters viewed Clinton “extremely unfavorably,” today 49%, an increase of 5 points.

Trump leads by 23 points in rural Kansas and by 7 points in suburban Kansas. Trump leads by 21 points in the Greater Wichita area, which includes Sedgwick and 63 surrounding counties. Trump and Clinton run even in Greater Topeka, which includes Shawnee and 30 surrounding counties. Trump leads by 7 points among suburban men and by 6 points among suburban women. There is no Gender Gap in Kansas.

Clinton leads by 23 points among Independent men and by 9 points among Independent women. Voters focused on immigration and terrorism vote overwhelmingly for Trump. Voters focused on education vote overwhelmingly for Clinton. Voters focused on the economy split. Trump leads by 23 points in military households.

In the election for United States Senator from Kansas, incumbent Republican Jerry Moran is well positioned at this hour for a second term, 16 points ahead of Democratic challenger Patrick Wiesner, 50% to 34%. Compared to a SurveyUSA KSN News poll a month ago, Moran is down 2 points, Wiesner is up 2 points. Libertarian Robert Garrard is flat, 6% a month ago, 6% today.

Statewide Favorability Ratings: 

Democratic President Barack Obama is viewed extremely favorably by 20% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 40%.
Republican Governor Sam Brownback is viewed extremely favorably by 4% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 49%.
Republican Senator Pat Roberts is viewed extremely favorably by 8% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 19%.
Moran is viewed extremely favorably by 13% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 12%.

Context and Methodology: 

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Kansas adults 09/06/16 through 09/11/16. Of the adults, 703 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 595 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. 4% of voters interviewed for this survey said they almost always vote in Presidential elections, but would not vote in 2016 because they did not like any of the candidates on the ballot. An offsetting 5% of voters said they almost never vote in Presidential elections but would vote in 2016 because they were drawn to one of this year’s candidates.

84% of the interviews for this survey were completed before Clinton buckled at Ground Zero the morning of 09/11/16 and doctors offered pneumonia as an explanation. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (57% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (43% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the screen of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Kansas has 6 electoral votes in 2016. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried the state by 22 points as Obama won a 2nd term. In 2008, John McCain carried the state by 15 points as Obama won his 1st term. In 2004, George W Bush carried KS by 25 points over John Kerry on Bush’s way to a 2nd term. In 2000, Bush carried KS by 21 points. Early voting begins in 5 weeks, on 10/19/16.

In California, Immediately Prior to Pneumonia Reveal, Clinton Far Ahead of Trump; Harris Atop Sanchez in Fight for Boxer’s Open Senate Seat; Death Penalty Likely to Survive, But Ballot Measures on Recreational Marijuana, Background Checks & New Cigarette Tax Ahead At This Hour

SurveyUSA Operations - 159 days ago

8 weeks till votes are counted in California, in interviews conducted in the days immediately prior to Hillary Clinton’s collapse on 09/11/16 in New York City, Clinton is in front of Donald Trump by margins comparable to Barack Obama’s defeat of Mitt Romney and John McCain, according to a SurveyUSA pre-election tracking poll conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno.

Clinton leads Trump by 25 points in California today, 57% to 32%, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 3% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 1%. These numbers are likely to change, of course, after news of Clinton’s illness is digested by voters. Obama carried California by 23 points in 2012 and by 24 points in 2008. Clinton today leads by 30 points among all women, leads by 28 points among suburban moms, and leads by 52 points among single moms. She leads by 18 points among white voters, by 24 points among Asian American voters, by 31 points among Latino voters, and by 58 points among African American voters.

Clinton leads by 38 points among 1st-generation Californians (those whose parents were born in another country). She leads by 30 points among 2nd-generation Californians (those with 1 or more grandparents born in another land). Clinton holds 90% of the Democratic base, compared to 80% of Republican who stand with Trump. Independents break for Clinton by 17 points. Moderates break for Clinton by 39 points.

Trump leads Clinton by 4 points among gun owners. Trump closes to within 17 points of Clinton among voters who grew up in a household where one parent hit the other. Clinton leads by 28 points among voters who did not witness domestic violence between their parents growing up. Trump runs 12 points stronger among motorcycle owners than he does among voters who do not ride a bike. Clinton leads by 52 points among vegetarians. The candidates run even in the Inland Empire, but Clinton leads by more than 2:1 in Greater Los Angeles and by more than 3:1 in the Bay Area. Catholics are ever-so-slightly more likely to back Clinton than Trump. Union households vote the same as non-union households. Trump ties Clinton in evangelical homes; Clinton leads by 38 points in non-evangelical homes.

In the election for United States Senator from CA, to replace retiring Democrat Barbara Boxer, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Democrat Loretta Sanchez, 44% to 27%, but, 4 weeks till early voting begins, almost a third of likely voters remain undecided in the contest. Harris leads overwhelmingly among Asian Americans and African Americans, and leads comfortably among whites. Latinos split. Sanchez narrowly leads among voters who have lived in California less than 10 years. Harris leads among those who have lived in California 10+ years. Harris leads among men and women, rich and poor, educated and uneducated. Harris leads in urban areas, suburban areas and rural areas and in all 4 named regions of the state. Those who voted for Boxer in 2010 back Harris in 2016 by 40 points. Those who voted for Carly Fiorina in 2010 narrowly favor Sanchez in 2016.

Ballot Measures:

Proposition 56, which would increase the tax on cigarettes to $2 per pack, is favored to pass by nearly 2:1.
Proposition 62, which would end the death penalty in CA and replace it with life in prison, trails by 16 points today and is headed for defeat.
Proposition 63, which outlaws large-capacity magazines and requires background checks before ammo can be purchased, leads by more than 2:1.
Proposition 64, which would legalize, regulate and tax recreational marijuana, is supported 52% to 40%. Caution advised.

Statewide Favorability Ratings:

President Obama is viewed extremely favorably by 36% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 24%.
Trump is viewed extremely favorably by 13% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 52%.
Clinton is viewed extremely favorably by 19% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 31%.
Governor Jerry Brown is viewed extremely favorably by 15% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 18%.
Dianne Feinstein is viewed extremely favorably by 14% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 17%.
Boxer is viewed extremely favorably by 14% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 22%.

Context and Methodology:

SurveyUSA interviewed 900 state of California adults 09/08/16 through 09/11/16. Of the adults, 782 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 678 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. Of registered voters, 4% tell SurveyUSA they almost always vote in a Presidential election but will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates. An offsetting 6% of voters tell SurveyUSA they almost never vote in Presidential elections but will vote in 2016 because they are particularly drawn to one of the candidates. 87% of the interviews for this survey were completed before Clinton buckled at Ground Zero the morning of 09/11/16 and before doctors offered pneumonia as an explanation. The survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (53% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (47% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the screen of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Polling ballot measures and citizen initiatives is an inexact science. In general, having nothing to do with California specifically and having nothing to do with 2016 uniquely, opposition to a ballot measure increases as Election Day approaches. Rarely does support for a ballot measure increase over time. It is likely that opposition to Propositions 56, 62, 63 and 64 will increase once early voting begins in one month, on 10/10/16. This may alter the calculus on recreational marijuana Proposition 64, which today has the most fragile advantage of those measures tested.

Support For San Diego Measure C Increases; Support for Measure D Unchanged

SurveyUSA Operations - 174 days ago

10 weeks until votes are counted, city of San Diego Measure C, which would authorize the creation of a joint-use downtown stadium and convention center, has new support, on the heels of a report by the San Diego Chargers that the city could receive an additional $750 million in revenues if the measure passes, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KGTV-TV and the Union Tribune.

Today, support for Measure C is at 39%, Opposition is at 36%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, support is up 9 points, opposition is down 4 points, a 13-point swing. Men had opposed the measure by 5 points, now support the measure by 17 points.

33% of likely November voters say Measure C will be a money maker. 33% say Measure C will be a money loser. 11% say Measure C will be a break-even proposition.

71% say that if the city’s hotel tax is raised to 16.5%, as called for by Measure C, it will deter visitors to the city — 33% calling it a major deterrent, 38% calling it a minor deterrent. 25% say the increase in hotel taxes will not make a difference in whether visitors choose to stay in San Diego hotels.

Support for Measure D is largely unchanged from 5 weeks ago. Then, the measure led by 3 points, today by 2 points.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from the city of San Diego 08/24/16 through 08/26/16. Of the adults, 690 were registered vote. Of the registered voters, 678 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (61% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (39% of likely voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

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