Florida, 19 Wks Till Votes Counted, Clinton 4 Atop Trump; Marco and Murphy Tied in Pivotal Battle for Rubio’s Senate Seat; Amendment 2 Up

SurveyUSA Operations - 162 days ago

Donald Trump desperately needs Florida’s 29 electoral votes to capture the White House in 134 days. But in an election for President in Florida today, between presumptive Republican Party nominee Trump and presumptive Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton, Clinton edges Trump, according to a SurveyUSA poll commissioned by Bay News 9 in Tampa and News 13 in Orlando.

At this hour, it’s Clinton 46%, Trump 42%, Libertarian Gary Johnson 2%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 1%. 19 weeks until votes are counted, Trump leads among Florida’s white voters and among Florida’s Cubans, but trails among Florida’s non-Cuban Hispanics, Florida’s blacks and Florida’s Asians. Among “very conservative” men, a group Trump must dominate, he holds 73% of the vote, but loses 20%, who cross-over to Clinton. Among high-school educated men, Trump leads, as one would expect, but just by 16 points, 54% to 38%. Among the most affluent voters, who typically gravitate to Republicans, Trump and Clinton tie, 44% each.

In Southeast Florida, which includes Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties (Mar a Lago is in Palm Beach County), Trump trails 56% to 32%. Trump leads in Northwest FL, Northeast FL, and Central FL, and ties Clinton in Southwest FL, but that is not enough for him to overcome Clinton’s advantage in the population centers of Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Boca Raton. Clinton leads by 12 points among voters under age 50. Trump leads by 2 points among voters age 50+. Clinton leads by 11 points among women. Trump leads by 3 points among men — a 14-point gender gap.

Trump wins pro-life voters by 40 points, he wins gun owners by 22 points and wins Evangelicals by 28 points. Tea-Party members break 4:1 for Trump. Moderates break 5:3 for Clinton. Among voters who say the economy is the most important issue, Clinton leads Trump by 9. Among voters who say that national security is the most important issue, Trump edges Clinton. Among voters who say that immigration is the most important issue, Trump crushes Clinton by 45 points.

In a hypothetical election today for United States Senator from Florida, incumbent Republican Marco Rubio, who vowed not to seek re-election before seeking re-election, may or may not hold onto his seat, today’s poll results show. In a match-up against possible Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy, Rubio and Murphy tie, 43% each, at this hour. If the Democrats instead nominate Alan Grayson, Rubio today leads narrowly, 44% to 40%. Much can and will change in this contest as voters get re-accustomed to Rubio being back in the race, but for now, the contest is a jump-ball. Trump’s coattails, or lack of coattails, may help determine Rubio’s fate. The seat has national significance if the Democrats are able to pick-up 4 or more other U.S. Senate seats on Election Day.

The 08/30/16 Republican primary is not competitive — Rubio has 3 times as many vote as his 3 Republican challengers combined. The Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate is not yet on voters’ radar. The last 5 public polls released in the contest show, on average, 45% of likely voters to be undecided. SurveyUSA today finds 35% of likely Democratic Primary voters undecided. Among voters with a preference, Murphy is at 30%, atop Grayson at 21%, Pam Keith at 10%, Reginald Luster at 3% and Rocky De La Fuente at 2%. Any outcome is possible, though Grayson certainly would rather be in Murphy’s shoes today.

Amendment 2, which would legalize medical marijuana for individuals with certain conditions, is 3:1 favored to pass at this hour. Opposition to ballot measures increases as Election Day approaches. When votes are counted in 134 days, the “No” vote may be significantly greater than it is today.

Voter Screening / Historical Context: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,000 state of Florida adults 06/25/16 through 06/27/16. Research began as soon as names on the primary ballots were finalized 06/24/16. Most interviews were completed after the results of the British vote to leave the European Union were announced. Of the 2,000 adults interviewed, 1,873 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 555 were determined by SurveyUSA to be eligible and likely to vote in the 08/30/16 Democratic Primary, 618 were determined by SurveyUSA to be eligible and likely to vote in the 08/30/16 Republican Primary. Only voters eligible and likely to vote in each primary were asked the Senate primary horse-race questions. 1,678 survey respondents were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election for President, other state offices and statewide ballot measures. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephone (66% of likely November voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (34% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. In 2012, Democrat Barack Obama carried Florida by less than 1 percentage point. In 2008, Obama carried Florida by 3 percentage points. In 2004, George W Bush carried Florida by 5 percentage points. In 2000, a handful of votes separated Al Gore and Bush before The Supreme Court of the United States awarded the state to Bush. In 1996, Bill Clinton carried the state by 6 points, the largest margin of victory for either party in Florida in the past 25 years. In 1992 George Herbert Walker Bush carried Florida by 2 points.

Unlike Supreme Court of United States, San Diego is Not Evenly Divided on Question of Immigration

SurveyUSA Operations - 167 days ago

On a day when the Supreme Court of the United States split 4 to 4 on immigration, SurveyUSA finds San Diego County split 5:3. 34% of area adults say those in the United States illegally should be allowed to stay; 54% say undocumented individuals should be deported. Research conducted exclusively for KGTV-TV and the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Of the majority in San Diego County who say undocumented immigrants should be deported:

48% say all immigrants, including children born in America, should be deported.
34% say children born in America should be allowed to stay.
61% are willing to pay the estimated $4,000 each taxpayer would owe to underwrite the cost of mass deportation. 29% are not.

Of the minority in San Diego County who says that undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay in America:

91% say immigrants should have a path to citizenship.
72% say immigrants should be allowed to get a driver’s license.
84% say immigrants should be allowed to purchase health insurance.
86% say immigrants should be allowed to work for wages.
92% say immigrants should be allowed to attend public schools.
86% say immigrants should be allowed to attend state universities.

Could Bright-Red Utah Go ‘Blue’ For First Time in 52 Years? Clinton Starts-Off Tied With Trump

SurveyUSA Operations - 177 days ago

In a state that Republican Mitt Romney carried with 72% of the vote in 2012, that John McCain carried with 63% of the vote in 2008, that George W. Bush carried with 73% of the vote in 2004 and 67% of the vote in 2000, that Bob Dole carried with 54% of the vote in 1996, Republican Donald Trump today can only manage to tie Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, with 35% for each major-party candidate, as the primary season ends and the general election season begins, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for the Salt Lake Tribune and the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah. Libertarian Gary Johnson gets 13% today, 5 months until votes are counted; 16% of likely voters are undecided; and 1% of likely voters tell SurveyUSA they will stay home and not vote.

At this hour, 65% of all Utah voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump. That negative yard-marker grows from 43% among very conservative voters, to 56% among somewhat conservative voters, to 74% among moderates, to 90% among somewhat liberal voters, to 93% among very liberal voters. The only thing that Trump has going for him is that Clinton is liked even less. Clinton is viewed unfavorably by 67% of all voters, including 95% of very conservative voters, 86% of somewhat conservative voters, 55% of moderates, 25% of liberals and 20% of very liberal voters. When all Utah voters are asked to rate the quality of candidates for public office in 2016, just 5% say the quality is excellent, 72% say the quality is fair or poor.

Utah’s disaffection for Trump does not extend down-ballot to the 2 other high-profile statewide contests. Incumbent Republican Governor Gary Herbert, who is running for his 3rd term, defeats Democrat Mike Weinholtz by 21 points today in a general election vote. And incumbent Republican Senator Mike Lee, who is running for his 2nd term, defeats possible Democratic challenger Jonathan Swinton today by 11 points and defeats possible Democratic challenger Misty K. Snow today by 14 points.

Herbert has a Plus 24 Net Favorability Rating today: 48% of voters view him favorably, compared to 24% of voters who view him unfavorably. (48% minus 24% = Plus 24 Net Favorability Rating.) Jonathan Johnson, who is running against Herbert to be the Republican party nominee for Governor, but who trails Herbert among primary voters 3:1, is viewed favorably by 21% of voters, unfavorably by 25% of voters. 40% of voters have a neutral opinion of Johnson; 13% have no opinion.

Lee has a Plus 1 Net Favorability Rating today: 38% of voters view him favorably, 37% view him unfavorably, far worse than Governor Herbert, but, surprisingly, far better than Utah icon Orrin Hatch, who is viewed favorably by 33% of voters, unfavorably by 45% of voters, and who as a result has a Minus 12 Net Favorability Rating today.

In the contest for President, Trump leads in Congressional District #1, trails in Congressional District #3, and runs effectively even with Clinton in Congressional District #2 and #4. Trump leads by 19 points among Mormon voters, Clinton leads by 15 points among Non-Mormon voters, and by 38 points among voters who are not a member of an organized religion. Trump leads by 12 among voters with a high school education. Clinton leads by 9 among voters with a 4-year college degree. Trump leads by 5 among men; Clinton leads by 5 among women.

separate analysis has been prepared for the Mia Love vs Doug Owens general election in Utah’s 4th Congressional District.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed a total of 1,725 registered voters from the state of Utah, which included an oversample of 300 voters from Utah’s 4th Congressional District, using registration based sample (RBS, also known as: voter list sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Once the 4th Congressional District was weighted to its correct proportion of the state, a representative universe of 1,425 registered voters was analyzed. Of them, 1,238 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election for President, Governor and United States Senator. 517 were identified as likely to vote in the 06/28/16 Utah Republican primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephone (82% of likely November voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (aka: the cell-phone respondents; 18% of likely November voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Caution: interviews for this survey were conducted during a week when Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party were in the news in a positive light, celebrating Clinton’s clinching of the party’s nomination for President, and at a time when Donald Trump and the Republican Party were in the news in a mostly negative light, having to do with Trump’s comments about a federal judge. The Trump-Clinton contest can be expected to evolve during the 5 months between now and when votes are counted.

Context: The last Democrat to carry Utah was Lyndon Baines Johnson, who in 1964 carried 44 states including Utah’s then 4 Electoral Votes. Republican Richard Nixon carried Utah with 56% of the vote in 1968 and 68% of the vote in 1972; Republican Gerald Ford carried Utah with 62% of the vote in 1976; Republican Ronald Reagan carried Utah with 73% of the vote in 1980 and with 75% of the vote in 1984; George Herbert Walker Bush carried Utah with 66% of the vote in 1988 and 43% of the vote in 1992.

Republican Congresswoman Mia Love, Rumored by Some To Be A Possible Running Mate for Donald Trump, Has Her Hands Full Seeking Re-Election in Utah’s 4th Congressional District Against Democrat Doug Owens

SurveyUSA Operations - 06/11/16 08:00 AM

In an election today in Utah’s 4th Congressional District, 1st-term incumbent Republican Mia Love trails Democratic challenger Doug Owens 51% to 45%, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for the Salt Lake Tribune and the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah.

Love, who is African American and known nationally, was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2014. She seeks a 2nd term. Her support is young. The younger the electorate, the stronger she will perform. Owens’ support is older; he leads by 16 points among voters age 50+. Love leads 8:1 among Strong Republicans. But that is overshadowed by Owens, who leads among Strong Democrats by 49:1. Owens wins independents by 54 points and wins moderates by 32 points. Owens leads by 7 among men and by 4 among women.

Among Mormons, Love leads by 26 points. Among non-Mormons, Owens leads by 37 points. Among voters who do not belong to an organized religion, Owens leads 5:1. Love leads ever-so-slightly among voters with a high school education. Owens leads by 8 points among voters who have attended some college, and leads by 6 points among voters with a 4-year college degree.

Love has a Minus 1 Net Favorability Rating: 39% of voters have a favorable opinion of Love, compared to 40% who have an unfavorable opinion of her. Love is viewed favorably by 81% of Strong Republicans and 66% of very conservative voters. But she is viewed unfavorably by 89% of Strong Democrats and by 80% of very liberal voters.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,725 registered voters from the state of Utah 06/02/16 through 06/08/16 using Registration Based Sample (RBS, also known as “voter list sample”), including an oversample of 300 registered voters from Utah’s 4th U.S. Congressional District. Only voters in the 4th Congressional District were asked about the Love-Owens contest. Of the registered voters from UT-04, SurveyUSA identified 573 who were likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (89% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (11% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Caution: this research was conducted at a time when Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party were in the news, celebrating Clinton’s clinching of the party’s nomination for President of the United States, and at a time when Donald Trump was in the news, in a mostly unflattering light, for comments he made about a federal judge. This contest is likely to evolve over the 5 months between now and the day votes are counted.

If Sanders Continues Run for President, Trump Defeats Clinton by 3 Points.

SurveyUSA Operations - 06/10/16 09:24 AM

In a 4-way election for President of the United States today, 06/10/16, with Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Gary Johnson all candidates on the ballot, Trump defeats Clinton 35% to 32%, with Sanders at 18% and Johnson at 4%, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for The Guardian. Of those who vote for Sanders if his name is on the ballot, 73% say theirs is a vote “for” Sanders, 19% say theirs is a vote “against” Trump, and 7% say theirs is a vote “against” Clinton.

In a 4-way election for President with Sanders’ name not on the ballot, Clinton defeats Trump 39% to 36%, with Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 4%. 5% of all voters tell SurveyUSA they would “stay home and not vote” in this ballot constellation. Of those who vote for Sanders when Sanders’ name appears on the ballot, 13% say they will stay home if Sanders name is not on the ballot, 41% vote for Clinton, 15% vote for Johnson, 11% vote for Stein, and 7% defect to Trump.

With Sanders on the ballot, Clinton holds 54% of those who voted for Barack Obama in 2012. 24% vote for Sanders and 13% defect to Trump. With Sandersnot on the ballot, Clinton holds 66% of Obama voters, 14% defect to Trump.

With Sanders on the ballot, Trump wins suburban voters 35% to 30%. With Sanders not on the ballot, Clinton edges Trump among suburban voters, 37% to 36%. In either case, Clinton handily wins in urban areas and Trump handily wins in rural areas.

With Sanders on the ballot, voters age 18 to 34 split 32% for Clinton, 29% for Sanders, and 26% for Trump. With Sanders not on the ballot, Clinton wins the youngest voters by 14 points.

With Sanders on the ballot, very liberal voters split, 49% for Clinton, 42% for Sanders. With Sanders not on the ballot, Clinton gets 71% of very liberal voters. With Sanders on the ballot, Clinton edges Trump among moderates by a single point. With Sanders not on the ballot, Clinton wins moderates by 7 points.

With Sanders on the ballot, Trump wins the Northeast, Midwest, and South. Clinton carries only the West. With Sanders not on the ballot, Clinton carries the Northeast, Midwest, and West. With Sanders on the ballot, Trump wins Union households. With Sanders not on the ballot, Clinton wins Union households.

Trump leads Clinton by more than 20 points in military households. Clinton has a double-digit advantage among 1st-time voters. Trump wins white voters regardless of whether Sanders is on the ballot or not. Clinton wins the black, Hispanic and Asian vote regardless of whether Sanders is on the ballot.

Of all voters, 22% have an “extremely favorable” view of Clinton, 18% have an extremely favorable view of Sanders, 16% have an extremely favorable view of Trump.

Of all voters, 47% have an extremely unfavorable view of Trump, 39% have an extremely unfavorable view of Clinton, 20% have an extremely unfavorable view of Sanders.

Of all voters, 42% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of the Republican Party, 36% have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party, 21% have an unfavorable opinion of the Libertarian Party and 15% have an unfavorable opinion of the Green Party.

Sanders is seen as more honest than either Clinton or Trump. Sanders is seen as more committed to protecting the environment than either Clinton or Trump.

Voters were asked which Democrat should take Clinton’s place if for any reason she is unable to run. 49% say Sanders, 21% say Joe Biden and 21% say someone else should be the replacement Democrat.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,600 adults nationwide after the results of the 06/07/16 primary elections were known, and after Sanders’ speech late on 06/07/16 in which he said he would keep fighting. Of the adults, 1,408 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 1,254 are likely to vote if Sanders’ name is on the ballot, 1,201 are likely to vote if Sanders’ name is not on the ballot. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (47% of voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (53% of voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In Fresno, Late Charge By Brand May Overtake Perea, Or Perea May Hold On to Win Tuesday Primary, But November Runoff is Almost Certain

SurveyUSA Operations - 06/06/16 09:00 PM

36 hours till votes are counted in the open primary for Mayor of Fresno CA, a late charge by Lee Brand may result in a suspenseful election night, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for KFSN-TV.

At this hour, it’s Henry R. Perea 36%, Brand 30%, with 3 other candidates further back and 9% of voters undecided. Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Brand and Perea are tied, 35% each. Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have not yet returned a ballot but will do so before polls close on Tuesday, Perea leads Brand 36% to 26%.

If Fresno’s Latino voters turn-out in larger numbers than SurveyUSA here forecasts, Perea may edge Brand. If Latino voters turn-out in smaller numbers, Brand may overtake. In either case, both Perea and Brand are likely to advance to a runoff general election on 11/08/16. Unless support for H. Spees, shown today receiving 17% of the vote, completely collapses, neither Perea nor Brand is likely to reach the “50% + 1 vote” majority that is necessary to win the Mayor’s seat outright on Tuesday and avoid a runoff.

In 4 SurveyUSA tracking polls, Brand has never led, Perea has never trailed. Perea led Brand by 19 points in February, by 12 points in April and May, and leads by 6 points today. Among Strong Republicans, Brand gets half of votes cast. Among Strong Democrats, Perea gets 3 of 4 votes cast. Independents and moderates break for Perea.

Among Latinos, Perea today gets 54% of votes cast, down from 63% in February, 61% in April and 66% in May. Still, no other candidate today is above 17% among Latinos. Among whites, Brand today edges Perea 35% to 30%. Perea had led among white voters in February, ran even among white voters in April, trailed Brand by 4 points among white voters in May and today trails Brand by 5 points among whites.

Among voters who say the city is well managed, Perea had led by 17 points in February but today trails Brand 35% to 32%. Among voters who say they are “just getting by” financially, Perea had led by 22 points, now leads by 7. Among middle-income voters, Perea had led by 16 points, now leads by just 4. Among “very conservative” voters, Perea started at 26%, ends at 9%.

One confounding variable: The city of Fresno Mayoral Primary is on the same day as the state of California presidential primary and U.S. Senate Primary. The Republican primary for President is no longer contested, and the Republican candidates running for U.S. Senate are of no consequence, so there will not be any coattails for Brand to ride. By contrast, Bernie Sanders may be making a late charge against Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary for President, which could increase Democratic turnout on Tuesday and help Perea. Perea leads Brand 2:1 among voters under age 50. The more Sanders’ succeeds in driving younger voters to the polls statewide, the better Perea will do.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 city of Fresno registered voters 06/02/16 through 06/05/16 using voter-list sample (also known as “RBS” sample) from Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 588 had either already returned a ballot in the open, non-partisan primary or were certain to do so before the deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (89% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (11% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Sitting Fresno mayor Ashley Swearengin is term limited. Swearengin won election in 2008 by defeating Henry R. Perea’s son, Henry T. Perea.

In California’s 17th Congressional District, Incumbent Democrat Honda Will Advance to General Election Runoff in Re-Match With Democrat Khanna

SurveyUSA Operations - 05/27/16 01:59 PM

2 weeks till votes are counted in California’s 06/07/16 primary, the open, non-partisan, Top-2 contest in the Golden State’s 17th Congressional District sets up as an exact re-run of the 2014 match-up, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KPIX-TV, CBS in San Francisco.

In 2014, then 1st-term Congressman Mike Honda was challenged by Democrat Ro Khanna and 2 Republicans. Honda and Khanna combined to take 3/4ths of the primary votes cast, and advanced to a November 2014 runoff, which Honda won narrowly.

Today, 2nd-term Congressman Honda is again challenged by Khanna, and by Democrat Pierluigi Oliverio, Republican Ron Cohen, Republican Peter Kuo and Libertarian Kennita Watson. Honda and Khanna again combine to take the lion’s share of the primary vote and, barring something extraordinarily unforeseen happening in the 2 weeks until votes are counted, almost certainly advance to a do-over-re-match on 11/08/16.

The exact research results at this hour show Honda at 31%, Khanna at 25%, Cohen at 7%, Kuo at 5%, and Oliverio and Watson each at 2%.

29% of voters are undecided. When the undecided voters finally pick a horse in this race, Honda and Khanna should again end up with about 3/4ths of the primary votes cast. It is possible that in the primary, Khanna may finish ahead of Honda, or, somewhat more likely, that Honda will finish ahead of Khanna, as these poll results show. Regardless, the same 2 candidates advance.

Honda and Khanna split the Asian-American vote. Honda leads narrowly among whites, and leads by larger margins among the district’s smaller Latino and African American populations. Among Republicans, Cohen and Khanna tie for the lead, with Honda and Kuo battling for 3rd place. Among Democrats, Honda leads decisively. Among Independents, Khanna has a narrow advantage. Among moderates, among the wealthiest voters, and among the most educated voters, Khanna and Honda run even. Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Khanna has a slight edge over Honda, 33% to 30%, which may indicate Khanna’s voters are more enthusiastic and/or that Khanna has better organized voter outreach.

About: From 05/18/16 through 05/23/16, SurveyUSA interviewed 600 registered voters from CA-17 using Registration-Based Sample (aka: Voter List Sample) from Aristotle, in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 564 had either already returned a ballot (early voting began 05/09/16) or were certain to do so before the deadline. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents with a landline (home) telephone (69% of likely voters, were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents without a home telephone (aka: the cell-phone respondents) (31% of likely voters) were interviewed on their cell-phone by a live operator who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent’s cooperation, and asked the respondents the questions. Live interviewers remained on the call until completion. Honda defeated Khanna by 20 points in the 2014 primary, and by 3 points in the 2014 general. The seat was previously held by Democrat Sam Farr, who was redistricted to California’s 20th Congressional District at the end of 2012.

2 Weeks Till Votes Are Counted in CA U.S. Senate Primary, Harris & Sanchez Still Favored to Advance to 11/08/16 General Election; Clinton Well Positioned To Defeat Sanders in Primary, But Starts 10 Points Behind Obama in General Election Fire Fight With Trump

SurveyUSA Operations - 05/23/16 09:44 PM

With early primary voting underway, Democrat Kamala Harris and Democrat Loretta Sanchez appear poised to advance to a runoff, ensuring that Barbara Boxer’s U.S. Senate seat continues to be held by a Democrat no matter which of these 2 candidates prevails in the 11/08/16 general election, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV in Los Angeles, KPIX-TV in San Francisco, KGTV-TV in San Diego, and KFSN-TV in Fresno.

Today, it’s Harris 31%, Sanchez 22%. The 3 Republican candidates in the primary — Duf Sundheim at 9%, Tom Del Beccaro at 9%, and Ron Unz at 7% — combine to receive 25% of the primary vote. Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Harris leads at 33%, followed by Sanchez at 21%, Sundheim at 11%, and Unz and Del Beccaro at 8%. There has been little movement in the contest since SurveyUSA began polling the contest in early April. Harris has never trailed. Sanchez has always run 2nd. The 3 Republicans have consistently split the conservative vote; no one of them has ever challenged Sanchez for 2nd.

In the Presidential primary, Hillary Clinton defeats Bernie Sanders 57% to 39%. The contest is unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA poll 3 weeks ago. Sanders continues to lead among the youngest voters. Clinton leads by 12 points among voters age 35 to 49, leads by 34 points among voters age 50 to 64, and leads by 45 points among voters age 65+. Clinton gets 57% of the primary vote in union households and gets 57% of the vote in non-union households. Clinton has majority support among every income group. Sanders leads by 2:1 among 1st-time primary voters.

Among all California voters, 48% have an extremely negative view of Donald Trump, 30% have an extremely negative view of Clinton, 13% have an extremely negative view of Sanders.
Among women, 52% have an extremely negative view of Trump, 27% have an extremely negative view of Clinton, 11% have an extremely negative view of Sanders.
Among strong Democrats, 44% have an extremely positive view of Clinton, 24% have an extremely positive view of Sanders, 2% have an extremely positive view of Trump
Among independents, 4% have an extremely positive view of Clinton, 20% have an extremely positive view of Sanders, 7% have an extremely positive view of Trump.
Among strong Democrats, 84% have an extremely negative opinion of Donald Trump.
Among independents, 41% have an extremely negative opinion of Donald Trump.
Among strong Republicans, 39% have an extremely positive opinion of Trump, compared to 4% who have an extremely positive opinion of Clinton and 11% who have an extremely positive opinion of Sanders.
Among independents, 7% have an extremely positive view of Trump, 41% have an extremely negative view of Trump.
Among moderates, 10% have an extremely negative view of Sanders, 23% have an extremely negative view of Clinton, 46% have an extremely negative view of Trump.

Looking ahead to the 11/08/16 general election for President, Clinton carries California today 52% to 38%, keeping the Golden State’s 55 Electoral Votes pale blue. Of concern to Democrats: Clinton leads Trump today by 14 points. Barack Obama carried CA by 24 points in 2008 and by 23 points in 2012. There is a Gender Gap at this hour: Trump loses California by 3 points among men, but loses by 25 points among women. It is unclear in the 170 days that remain until the next President is chosen whether this Gender Gap will close or open wider. Of greater concern to Democrats: among those who tell SurveyUSA they are paying “a lot” of attention to the 2016 election, Clinton defeats Trump in California today by just 9 points, 50% to 41%. Trump’s negatives have remained constant the past 3 times SurveyUSA has polled California; Clinton’s negatives have increased during that period.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,800 state of California adults 05/19/16 through 05/22/16. Of the adults, 1,598 were registered to vote in the state of California. Of the CA registered voters, 803 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 Democratic Presidential primary, 1,416 were determined to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 open, non-partisan U.S. Senate primary, and 1,383 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election for President. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (62% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (38% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. California’s 55 Electoral Votes are 20% of the 270 that any candidate needs to be elected to the White House. For additional California context: John Kerry defeated George W Bush by 10 points in 2004. Al Gore defeated Bush by 12 points in 2000.

In Fresno, Mayoral Candidates Perea and Brand Fight To Be 1 of the 2 Who Advance From June Primary To Runoff Election in November

SurveyUSA Operations - 05/16/16 10:07 PM

3 weeks till votes are counted in the open, non-partisan primary for Mayor of Fresno CA, Henry R. Perea leads Lee Brand and 3 other candidates, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KFSN-TV. But Perea does not appear positioned at this hour to reach the 50% plus 1 vote that is required in order to avoid an 11/08/16 runoff.

With early voting underway, SurveyUSA finds Perea at 38%, Lee Brand at 26%, H. Spees at 16%, Doug Vagim at 5%, and Richard Renteria at 3%. Among those who have already returned a ballot, Perea leads by 15 points. Among those who have not yet voted but who tell SurveyUSA they will on or before 06/07/16, Perea leads by 11 points.

12% of voters today are undecided. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, the number of undecided voters has dropped by 6 percentage points, from 18% to 12%. Each of the top 3 candidates picked up a couple of extra votes as a result:

Perea was at 36% two weeks ago, now at 38%.
Brand was at 24% two weeks ago, now at 26%.
Spees was at 13% two weeks ago, now at 16%.

If Perea were to receive 38% of today’s undecided voters, he would finish with 43% on Primary Election Day. Perea would need to receive every undecided vote to approach the 50% needed to win the Mayor’s seat outright.

Perea is backed by 2 of 3 Latino voters. Brand edges Perea 33% to 29% among white city voters. Brand runs strong among the oldest voters, where he inches to within 3 points of Perea, 33% for Perea to 30% for Brand. The older the 06/07/16 primary electorate is, the better Brand will perform. The younger the primary electorate, the better Perea will perform. Perea leads by 41 points among voters age 35 to 49.

Perea leads Brand both among voters who say the city is well managed and among voters who say the city is poorly managed. And, regardless of which issue voters say is most important — crime, gangs, economic development or homelessness — Perea leads Brand.

Brand leads among Strong Republicans and Republicans. Brand and Perea tie among Independents who Lean Republican. Perea leads among Independents, Independents who Lean Democratic, Democrats and Strong Democrats. Brand leads narrowly among the city’s most affluent voters; Perea leads among middle-income and lower-income voters.

The city of Fresno Mayoral Primary is held on the same day as the state of California presidential primary and U.S. Senate Primary. At one point, it appeared that the Republican presidential nominee would be determined by California, in which case Republican turnout statewide would have been higher, helping Brand. Now, the Republican and Democratic presidential nominations are all-but-decided, and so Fresno candidates will have to generate their own tailwind.

60% of white primary voters vote for someone other than Perea, so were Perea to face Brand one-on-one in November, the outcome is far from certain.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 city of Fresno registered voters using voter-list sample (also known as “RBS” sample) from Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 589 were likely to vote in the 06/07/16 open, non-partisan primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (88% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (12% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Sitting Fresno mayor Ashley Swearengin is term limited. Swearengin won election in 2008 by defeating Henry R. Perea’s son, Henry T. Perea.

Top 3 CA Primary Contests Not Close At This Hour — Democrats Harris, Sanchez Likely to Advance to Runoff In Fight for Boxer’s Senate Seat; Clinton Now 3:2 Atop Sanders; Cruz and Kasich No Longer Competitive, Though Congressional-District Delegate-Math Does Matter to Trump

SurveyUSA Operations - 05/02/16 07:00 PM

5 weeks till votes are counted in the 06/07/16 California primary, a majority of Republicans are resigned to vote for unpopular Donald Trump, a majority of Democrats are resigned to vote for unpopular Hillary Clinton, and 2 Democrats are poised to advance to the 11/08/16 U.S. Senate general election, which gives Republicans little chance to pick up Barbara Boxer’s seat, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV in Los Angeles, KPIX-TV in San Francisco, KGTV-TV in San Diego and KFSN-TV in Fresno.

Today, it’s Trump 54%, Ted Cruz 20%, John Kasich 16%. One month ago, at the height of what some saw as Trump’s inevitable self-destruction, a Los Angeles Times Poll found Trump just 1 point ahead of Cruz. Since then, polls have shown Trump’s lead expanding to 7 points, then 8, then 18, then 27 points and now, today 05/02/16, 34 points. Whatever chance Cruz or Kasich may once have had to cramp Trump is gone. The only suspense that remains is whether Trump will collect all 172 of the Golden State’s Republican National Convention delegates, which Trump would do if he wins each of California’s 53 U.S. Congressional Districts. Each convention delegate is precious at this hour, as Trump tries to secure a 1st-ballot nomination and avoid the chaos that would come with a Cleveland floor-fight. Should Cruz and Kasich supporters see the California primary outcome as a foregone conclusion, and fail to turn out, Trump may succeed at capturing all 172. Or, if confident Trump backers sense they have the contest in hand and fail to turn out on 06/07/16, Trump and his delegate man Paul Manafort may allow the deal to go unsealed.

Today, it’s Clinton 57%, Bernie Sanders 38%. No recent poll has shown Clinton with this large of a lead in California, but this is the first California poll to be conducted after Sanders laid off 225 paid campaign workers and after 4 losses on 04/26/16, the day before interviewing began for this study. Clinton’s 1st-ballot nomination is much more secure than is Trump’s, and when the East Coast wakes up on Wednesday 06/08/16 to see how much Sanders lost by in California, Clinton will have just 46 days to turn Bernie backers from “November-stay-at-homes” into enthusiastic Clinton supporters before Democrats gather in Philadelphia.

Of significance:

51% of registered voters and 88% of “Strong Democrats” have an “extremely negative” view of Trump. 14% of registered voters and 45% of “Strong Republicans” have an “extremely positive” view of Trump

28% of registered voters and 69% of “Strong Republicans” have an “extremely negative” view of Clinton. 16% of registered voters and 51% of “Strong Democrats” have an “extremely positive” view of Clinton.

By contrast, just 9% of registered voters have an “extremely negative” view of Kasich; 28% of registered voters have an “extremely negative” view of Cruz.

In the open, non-partisan, Top-2 primary for United States Senator, Republicans Tom Del Beccaro, Ron Unz and Duf Sundheim split conservative voters, paving the way for Democrats Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez to finish 1 and 2, and advance to an 11/08/16 runoff. Harris gets 29% today, Sanchez 18%. Harris gets 32% of the white vote, 58% of the black vote, 19% of the Latino vote and 29% of the Asian vote. Sanchez gets 11% of the white vote, 18% of the black vote, 36% of the Latino vote and 9% of the Asian vote.

Del Beccaro at 10%, Unz at 8% or Sundheim at 7% could overtake Sanchez if Latinos vote in smaller numbers than here shown. A best-case scenario for the 3 Republican Senate candidates had been that the outcome of the Democratic presidential primary was a foregone conclusion (suppressing Democratic turnout statewide), but that the Republican presidential primary would be white hot (boosting Republican turnout statewide). But that seems unlikely, even with Cruz picking Californian Carly Fiorina to be his running mate and even with Kasich continuing to be the least polarizing option.

Harris’ support is older, which in a primary often translates to be “more reliable.” Sanchez’ support is younger. Harris runs 1st in all 4 regions of the state; she leads Sanchez and Del Beccaro by 35 points in the Bay Area, leads Sanchez by 9 points in the Central Valley, leads Sanchez by 3 points in greater Los Angeles, and leads Sanchez by a nominal 1 point in the Inland Empire. Among very conservative voters, Del Beccaro leads with 21%, followed by Sundheim at 17% and Unz at 14%. Among very liberal voters, Harris leads with 57% to Sanchez’ 24%. Harris runs ever-so-slightly stronger among women than men, and Unz’s support is twice as strong among men as women, but otherwise, there are no gender gaps to note.

In hypothetical head-to-head match-ups today for the 11/08/16 general election for President:

Clinton defeats Donald Trump 56% to 34%.
Clinton defeats Cruz 57% to 29%.
Clinton defeats Kasich 53% to 34%.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,400 state of California adults 04/27/16 through 04/30/16. All interviews were conducted after results of the 04/26/16 primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island were known. Of the adults, 2,011 were registered to vote in the state of California. Of the CA registered voters, 529 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 Republican Presidential primary, 826 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 Democratic Presidential primary, 1,502 were determined to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 open, non-partisan U.S. Senate primary, and 1,683 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (61% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (39% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Barack Obama carried CA by 24 points in 2008 and by 23 points in 2012.

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