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In California’s 52nd Congressional District, Incumbent Democrat Peters and Republican Challenger DeMaio Now Tied

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 92 days ago

One month till voting in California begins, the fiercely fought contest in California’s 52nd Congressional district is effectively even — 47% for incumbent Democrat Scott Peters, to 46% for Republican challenger Carl DeMaio — according to an exclusive Union Tribune / KGTV-TV 10News poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

Peters holds 87% of the Democratic base; just 10% of Democrats cross-over and vote Republican. DeMaio holds 80% of the Republican base; 16% of Republicans cross-over and vote Democratic. Independents split. Peters ges 82% of the liberal vote. DeMaio gets 78% of the conservative vote. Moderates break for the Democrat by 22 points.

Voters say that “integrity” is the most important issue in the race. On that issue, Peters leads DeMaio by 19 points. Among voters who say that “fiscal responsibility” is the most important issue, DeMaio leads by 58 points. Among voters who say that the ability “to reach across party lines” is the most important issue, DeMaio leads by 39 points.

Compared to a KGTV-TV 10News poll released 3 months ago, DeMaio is down 5 points, Peters is up 3 points. DeMaio had led by 7, now nominally trails by 1, an 8-point swing to the incumbent. Then, DeMaio led by 17 points among men. Today, DeMaio leads by 2 points among men. Then, DeMaio led by 9 points among white voters. Today, DeMaio trails by 2 among white voters.

This research conducted 100% by telephone, “cell” respondents included: SurveyUSA interviewed 675 registered voters from California’s 52nd Congressional District 09/11/14 through 09/15/14, using Registration Based Sample (RBS, also known as “voter list sample”) provided by Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 559 were likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were called on their cell-phones, by live operators who hand-dialed the respondents, secured their cooperation, conducted the interview, and who remained on the call until the completion of the interview.

In Florida, Republican Scott Has Momentum, Democrat Crist Sputters, 7 Weeks Until Votes Are Counted; Medical Marijuana Backed

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 92 days ago

In an election for Governor of Florida today, 09/16/14, a month until ballots are mailed to voters, incumbent Republican Rick Scott is now 5 points atop Democratic challenger Charlie Crist, according to the latest WFLA-TV tracking poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Today’s results — Scott 44%, Crist 39% — are the first time that Crist has polled below 40% in the 6 months since WFLA-TV began tracking the contest.

Both candidates have Negative Net Favorability ratings. Crist is Minus 14: 33% of voters have a favorable opinion of him, 47% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of him. Scott is Minus 5: 39% of voters have a favorable opinion of him, 44% have an unfavorable opinion.

Compared to a WFLA-TV tracking poll one week ago, Crist is down 5 points, Scott is down 1 point. Libertarian Adrian Wyllie — today at 7% — is up 4 percentage points. Crist has lost ground among men, where he is today polling at 35%, 12 points behind Scott. Immediately before the 08/26/14 Democratic primary, Crist led among Independent voters, but today Crist is down among this critically important constituency by 13 points. In Southeast Florida, a Democratic stronghold which includes Miami and Fort Lauderdale, Crist is down 9 points week-on-week, and today leads in that part of the state by just 3. Without Southeast Florida solidly in one’s back pocket, no Democrat can carry the state.

State constitutional Amendment 2, which would give Floridians the right to use medicinal marijuana if prescribed by a physician, is backed by 25 points today, 56% voting Yes, 31% voting No. The measure is supported by 40 points among the youngest voters, and by 3 points among the oldest voters. Republicans and conservatives oppose. Moderates, liberals, Democrats and Independents support. The measure passes in every region of the state.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 state of Florida adults 09/12/14 through 09/15/14. Of the adults, 683 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 571 were likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

5 Weeks Until Voting Begins, Democrats Ahead By A Handful of Votes in Colorado Contests for Governor and US Senator

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 97 days ago

7 weeks to Election Day, and 5 weeks until voting begins, incumbent Democrat Mark Udall is narrowly atop Republican challenger Cory Gardner in the contest for US Senate, and incumbent Democrat John Hickenlooper is even more narrowly ahead of Republican challenger Bob Beauprez in the contest for Governor, according to an exclusive Denver Post News Poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Both contests at this hour could go either way.

In the US Senate race, which has national implications in terms of which party will have control of the Senate in the next Congress, Udall today defeats Gardner 46% to 42%. Udall’s entire lead comes from Independents, where he leads by 10 percentage points. Udall’s support also comes entirely from voters under age 50: the contest is tied among voters age 50+; Udall leads by 9 points among voters under age 50. There is a 18-point Gender Gap: Gardner leads by 5 points among male likely voters; Udall leads by 13 points among female likely voters. The more male the electorate, the better Gardner will do.

Udall leads by 19 points in greater Denver. Gardner leads elsewhere — by 11 points in greater Colorado Springs and by 16 points in the rest of Colorado. Udall leads by 3 points among whites and by 2 points among Colorado Hispanics. Udall leads among those with a 4-year college degree; Gardner leads among those with lesser education.

Gardner, a member of the US House of Representatives from CO’s 4th Congressional District, has a Net Zero favorability rating: 36% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of him, 36% have an unfavorable opinion of him. 28% say they need to know more about him before forming an opinion. Udall, by comparison, has a Minus 7 Net Favorability rating: 40% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Udall, 47% have an unfavorable opinion. 13% need to know more. The numbers are almost identical when SurveyUSA asks about job approval: 36% approve of the job that Gardner is doing as Congressman, 36% disapprove. 40% approve of the job Udall is doing as Senator, 46% disapprove.

Asked which candidate is more trustworthy, voters split: 40% say Udall, 38% say Gardner. Asked which candidate would make better decisions in office, voters split: 42% say Udall, 41% say Gardner.

In an election for Governor of Colorado today, Hickenlooper by the narrowest of margins, and well within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error, leads challenger Beauprez, 45% to 43%. In a contest this close, every vote that goes to a 3rd-party candidate is critically significant: Libertarian Matthew Hess today gets 4% of the vote, unaffiliated candidate Mike Dunafon gets 2% today, and Green Party candidate Harry Hempy gets 1%. Whites split, 44% to 44%. What little margin Hickenlooper has comes from Colorado’s minority communities. Every Hispanic, black and Asian-American vote is critical to the Democrat’s chances. Hickenlooper holds 83% of the Democratic base, Beauprez holds 81% of the Republican base. Independents narrowly break for the Democrat, 42% to 38%, with a non-trivial 14% of independents voting for one of the minor-party candidates. Where these disaffected Independents go on Election Day may well determine the outcome. 80% of conservatives vote Republican. 81% of Liberals vote Democratic. Moderates break by 19 points for Hickenlooper.

In Colorado, voters support the death penalty 2:1. Those who say the death penalty is a major factor in their vote for Governor back Beauprez 3:1. Those who say that the death penalty is not a factor in their vote for Governor back Hickenlooper by nearly 2:1. Those who say the death penalty is somewhat of a factor in their vote for Governor, split. Greater Denver backs the Governor’s re-election by 17 points. Elsewhere in Colorado, voters are ready for a change.

Hickenlooper’s favorability is Minus 1. Beauprez favorability is Plus 4. 46% approve of the job Hickenlooper is doing, 45% disapprove. Voters by 4 points say Hickenlooper is more trustworthy. Voters split on which candidate for Governor would make the better decisions while in office.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 850 state of Colorado adults 09/08/14 through 09/10/14. Of the adults, 772 were registered to vote. Of the registered votes, 664 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone ( 75% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (25% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Ballots will be mailed to voters on 10/14/14. Early voting begins on 10/20/14.

In Solid Red South Dakota, Republican Rounds is Held to 39% in US Senate Fight, But Still Leads Because of 4-Man Field; GOP Likely to Hold House Seat, Statehouse; Minimum Wage Hike Backed; 3:2 Odds That Gambling in Deadwood Will Pass

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 97 days ago

In an election for the open US Senate seat in South Dakota today, 8 weeks to Election Day, Republican Mike Rounds maintains an 11-point advantage over Democrat Rick Weiland, who himself is just 3 points ahead of Independent Larry Pressler, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for KSFY-TV in Sioux Falls, KOTA-TV in Rapid City and the Aberdeen American News. The broadly-focused survey of the entire South Dakota political landscape focuses on much more than just the US Senate race, but let’s start there.

Today, it’s Rounds 39%, Weiland 28%, Pressler 25%, and Independent Gordon Howie at 3%. Rounds is supported by just 61% of Republicans and by just 66% of conservatives – and yet, that may be enough to win the seat. Weiland is supported by 56% of Democrats and by 55% of South Dakota’s (very few) liberals. The older you are, the less likely you are to vote for Rounds: he leads by 3 points among seniors, by 6 points among voters age 50 to 64, by 9 points (over Pressler, who is in 2nd place in this age group) among voters age 35 to 49, and by 10 points among the youngest voters. Rounds leads by 15 points among men and by 7 points among women. Rounds also leads, by 22 points, among South Dakota’s highest-income voters.

Pressler, who held the seat as a Republican for 3 terms before being defeated in 1996 by incumbent Democrat Tim Johnson, has support across the board, but it is clear that in 2014 he takes more votes away from the Democrat Weiland than from the Republican Rounds. 29% of Democrats vote for Pressler, compared to 21% of Republicans, and compared to 31% of Independents. SurveyUSA asked Pressler supporters who they would vote for if Pressler were not on the ballot. 55% of Pressler voters say they would vote for the Democrat Weiland. 23% say they would vote for the Republican Rounds. 12% would vote for the Independent Howie. If, in fact, Pressler did drop from the race, and if Pressler’s supporters did exactly what they tell SurveyUSA here that they would do, the Senate contest would be a toss-up: 44% Rounds to 42% Weiland.

The SD Senate contest is not unlike the situation in Kansas, where the anti-Republican vote appeared to be larger than the Republican vote, but was divided among multiple candidates until one of them last week withdrew. In Kansas, the Republicans already hold the Senate seat; in South Dakota, the seat currently held by Democrat Tim Johnson is open, as Johnson is not seeking a fourth term.

In the election for South Dakota’s representative to the US House, incumbent Republican Kristi Noem today defeats Democratic challenger Corinna Robinson 53% to 40%. Among voters who say that the economy is the most important issue in their vote for Congress, Noem leads by 10 points. Among voters who say that healthcare is the most important issue, Robinson leads by 4 points. Noem is above 50% in every age group. She leads by 24 points among men and by 4 points among women.

In the election for South Dakota’s Secretary of State, Republican Shantel Krebs today defeats Democrat Angelia Schultz 41% to 31%, with 3rd-party candidates siphoning 11% of the vote, and 17% of likely voters undecided on the contest.

On Constitutional Amendment Q, which would allow certain types of gambling in the city of Deadwood, Yes leads No by 16 points, 44% to 28%, with 29% not certain how they will vote. Younger voters support Q. Older voters oppose. Among the wealthiest South Dakotans, the measure leads by 34 points.

Initiated Measure 18, which would increase the state minimum wage, passes 3:1 today. Initiated Measure 17, which would change how insurance companies display health-care providers, Yes leads No 7:1 … but 57% (the overwhelming majority) of South Dakota’s likeliest voters say they are not certain how they will vote on 17.

Finally, in the election for Governor of South Dakota, incumbent Republican Dennis Daugaard defeats Democrat Susan Wismer today by 20 points, 54% to 34%. Daugaard is above 50% among men and women, and in all age groups. Among voters who say that economic development is the most important issue in their vote for Governor, Daugaard leads by 41 points. Among voters who say that Medicaid is the most important issue in their vote for Governor and among voters who say that teacher pay is the most important issue, Daugaard and Wismer are effectively even.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 775 South Dakota adults 09/03/14 through 09/07/14. Of the adults, 674 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 510 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home (landline) telephone (88% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (12% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone, or other electronic device.

In GA, 8 Weeks Till Votes Are Counted, Republican Perdue 3 Points Atop Democrat Nunn in Battle for Open US Senate Seat; Gov Race Now Tied; GOP Candidates Still Lead in Contests For Lt Gov, Atty Gen, and Secy of State; School Supt Race Heats Up

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 98 days ago

Democrat Michelle Nunn has made progress over the past 3 weeks, slicing into Republican David Perdue’s previous 9-point lead and trimming that to 3, according to the latest exclusive 11Alive News tracking poll, conducted by SurveyUSA. Perdue led 50% to 41% on 08/18/14, when many voters were still on vacation. Today, with most of Georgia back from summer break, Perdue leads 47% to 44%. The contest has national implications for which party shall control the US Senate in the next Congress.

The 08/18/14 poll and today’s 09/09/14 poll were conducted identically. Most of the poll-on-poll movement in the Senate race comes from women, who had favored Nunn by 2 points, but now favor Nunn by 12 points. Among moderates, Nunn had led by 19 points, now by 28 points. In greater Atlanta, Nunn had led by 11 points, now by 18. South and East of Atlanta, which includes Columbus, Macon and Savannah, Nunn had trailed by 8, now leads by 3, a gain of 11. Libertarian Amanda Swafford throws a monkey wrench into any political calculus, getting 5% of the vote today. To avoid a runoff, Perdue or Nunn need to get to 50% on 11/04/14. If neither does, a 12/04/14 Top-2 runoff follows.

In the contest for Governor of GA, incumbent Republican Nathan Deal has watched a 9-point lead evaporate over the past 3 weeks, and now finds himself running effectively even with Democratic challenger Jason Carter, 45% Deal, 44% Carter. Among voters age 35 to 49, many of whom are just now tuning into the race, Deal led by 23 points in August, now trails by 5, a 28-point left turn. Deal had led by 3 among women, now trails by 10, a 13-point left turn. Carter gains ground among Independents, where he had trailed by 21, now by 14. And Carter gains ground among moderates, where he had led by 16, now by 31. In greater Atlanta, Carter leads by 20 points today, up from 14 points in mid-August. In South and East GA, Carter had trailed by 10, now leads by 2. Complicating the race is Libertarian Andrew Hunt, who today is at 4%. By definition, if either Carter or Deal wins by 1 point, and Hunt gets 4%, there will be a 12/04/14 runoff among the top-2 finishers.

In the contest for Lieutenant Governor, Republican Casey Cagle led by 16 points in mid-August, today leads by 11.
In the contest for Secretary of State, Republican Brian Kemp led by 17 points in mid-August, today leads by 13.
In the contest for Attorney General of GA, Republican Sam Olens led by 13 points in mid-August, today leads by 8.
In the contest for School Superintendent, Republican Richard Woods led Democrat Valerie Wilson by 12 points mid-August, now leads Wilson by 4. Among women, Wilson has gained 14 points poll-on-poll; among moderates, Wilson has gained 16. Those who support the Common Core standards back the Democrat Wilson by 33 points. Those who oppose the Common Core standards back the Republican Woods by 50 points.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this WXIA-TV research: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of GA adults 09/05/14 through 09/08/14. Of the adults, 695 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 558 as being likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. In GA, for statewide office, a winning candidate must reach 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff. You must credit WXIA-TV, the Gannett-owned station in Atlanta, if you re-broadcast, cite, or publish these results in whole or part.

In CA-21, Incumbent Republican Valadao Well Positioned Against Democratic Challenger Renteria

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 99 days ago

8 weeks to Election Day, in California’s 21st US Congressional District, incumbent Republican David Valadao has built a strong coalition and would appear to be a favorite to hold onto his seat, according to a KFSN-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

In an election today, 09/09/14, it’s Valadao 56%, Renteria 37%. Valadao’s support is older. He leads by more than 2:1 among seniors. Renteria’s support is younger. She leads 2:1 among the youngest voters. Every younger voter who turns out on Election Day helps the challenger. Valadao leads by 25 points among men and by 14 points among women.

Latino voters split, 47% for Renteria, 46% for Valadao. Valadao’s entire lead comes from white voters, where he leads 5:1. Asian American voters split.

Valadao holds 94% of the Republican base. Renteria holds just 63% of the Democratic base. 30% of Democrats cross-over and vote Republican. Independents break for the Republican by 21 points. Moderates split. Lower-income voters split, but middle-income and upper-income voters break 2:1 Republican.

Valadao is seen as more trustworthy, 48% to 28%.
Valadao better reflects voters’ views on the water crisis, 50% to 29%.
Valadao better reflects voters’ views on immigration, 44% to 31%.
Valadao better reflects voters’ views on unemployment, 48% to 28%.

This research conducted 100% by telephone; live operators used to contact cell-phone respondents: SurveyUSA interviewed 600 registered voters from California’s 21st Congressional District 09/03/14 through 09/08/14, using Registration Based Sample (RBS, also known as: Voter List Sample) provided by Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 439 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were interviewed by live operators, who hand-dialed cell phones, secured the respondent’s cooperation, qualified the respondent, conducted the interview and remained on the line until the completion of the call. You must credit KFSN-TV, the ABC-owned station in Fresno, if you publish, broadcast, or cite these results in whole or part.

8 Weeks Till Votes are Counted, Florida Governor Duel Back to Steady-State: Scott 45%, Crist 44%

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 99 days ago

The DNA double helix that is the 2014 Florida Governor’s fight is beautifully illustrated in this exclusive WFLA-TV interactive tracking graph, which shows the results of the last 3 WFLA-TV polls, since the name of Libertarian Adrian Wyllie was added to the survey. As time passes, the chart moves to the right, and as voters make up their mind, and as fewer-and-fewer are undecided, the lines on the chart move from the bottom to the top. Today SurveyUSA finds incumbent Republican Rick Scott at 45%, Democratic challenger Charlie Crist at 44%, Wyllie at 3%.

Wyllie today hurts Crist, taking twice as many votes from the Democrat as he does from the Republican. Normally, this wouldn’t matter with a 3rd-party candidate who is at 3%, but in a contest that may be decided by a few thousand votes, each one is precious.

Scott continues to nip at Crist’s heels in Southeast Florida, a Democratic bastion where Democrats typically run up big margins, to off-set Republican strongholds elsewhere in the sprawling state. Today, Scott is within 9 of Crist in Dade and Broward counties, which include Miami and Fort Lauderdale. In Central FL, always a battleground, the interactive tracking graph again models a DNA helix: Scott led by 8 on 08/19/14, Crist led by 8 on 08/29/14, Scott leads by 8 today.

Independents split in this WFLA-TV release, 41% Scott, 41% Crist. Moderates, however, break by 20 points for the Democrat. The Gender Gap today is 17 points. Cubans, narrowly, vote Republican. Non-cuban Hispanics vote Democratic.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 state of FL adults 09/05/14 through 09/08/14. Of the adults, 678 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 576 were likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. You must credit WFLA-TV if you re-broadcast, publish or cite these poll results in whole or part.

The Kansas Trifecta: Contests for U.S. Senate, Governor and Secretary of State, All Intertwined, All Too-Close-to-Call.

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 100 days ago

8 weeks to Election Day, anything is possible in Kansas. Three top-of-ticket Republican incumbents could win. Three top-of-ticket incumbent Republicans could lose. Or there could be a mix-and-match outcome. That’s according to the latest KSN-TV News Poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Complicating any analysis: the fates of the incumbent Republicans may be intertwined.

Let’s start with the contest that rocketed to national prominence last week, the fight for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Republican Pat Roberts. As of today, 09/08/14, about 7 in 10 Kansas likely voters are aware that Democrat Chad Taylor has withdrawn from the race, with a formal request that his name be taken off the ballot. About 6 in 10 Kansas likely voters are aware that Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, a Republican in his own tight-fight for re-election (more on that in a moment), has inserted himself into the fray and refuses to remove Democrat Taylor from the ballot. That creates a nightmare for state and national party officials, for Kansas voters, and for public opinion pollsters.

At this hour, subject to possible lawsuits and back-room bargains which could further upend the race, Independent Greg Orman and Roberts are effectively tied, 37% for Orman, 36% for Roberts, 10% for Taylor, 6% for Libertarian Randall Batson. The exact wording of the question that SurveyUSA asked respondents is:“If there were an election for US Senate today, and Democrat Chad Taylor’s name still appeared on the ballot even though he no longer wants to run, and the other names on the ballot were Republican Pat Roberts, Independent Greg Orman, and Libertarian Randall Batson, who would you vote for?”

Orman gets 52% of the Democratic vote, 42% of the independent vote, and 26% of the Republican vote. Roberts holds 59% of the Republican base, and is backed by 11% of Democrats, and 16% of independents. Orman leads among the most educated voters and among the most affluent voters. The contest is effectively tied in Greater Wichita, and effectively tied in greater Kansas City KS. Orman has a slight lead in greater Topeka. Voters focused on the economy back Orman over Roberts 3:2. Voters focused on Obamacare back Roberts over Orman 2:1.

Of voters who tell SurveyUSA that they had planned to vote for Taylor prior to his withdrawal from the race, 43% today vote for Orman, 30% still vote for Taylor, 15% cross-over and vote for Roberts, 7% vote for Batson and 5% throw up their hands and don’t know yet what to do.

Kobach’s insertion into the Senate contest did nothing, at first blush, to help his own campaign for re-election. 2 weeks ago, KSN-TV and SurveyUSA had Kobach tied with Democratic challenger Jean Schodorf. Today, the contest is still within the theoretical margin of sampling error, but Schodorf now has a nominal 3-point advantage, 46% to 43%. Men don’t take kindly to Kobach’s interference. 2 weeks ago, Kobach had led by 10 among male likely voters, now by 3. And residents of greater Kansas City KS don’t take kindly to Kobach either. In that part of the state, Kobach had been tied with Schodorf, but today the Democrat Schodorf leads by 7. The contest is a jump ball that could go either way. It’s too early to tell whether Kobach will be written about, years from now, as a hero, who saved the US Senate for Republicans and got himself re-elected in the process, or as a goat, who sunk himself and the Republican Party with him.

Sitting on the sidelines, ostensibly minding his own business, is incumbent Republican Governor Sam Brownback. Brownback could fairly be accused of being, in a “wave-election” year when Republicans are expected to win statehouse and congressional contests coast-to-coast, the falling tide that is sinking all Kansas Republican boats. Brownback was already in trouble long before anyone was worried about Roberts and long before anyone outside of Kansas knew Kobach’s name. Now, Brownback is staring at basically the same “upside-down” numbers that he howled about when SurveyUSA released them 2 weeks ago. Today, Brownback is down 7 points to Democratic challenger Paul Davis. The Democratic ticket of Davis and Jill Docking gets 47% today, the Republican ticket of Brownback and Lt. Gov Jeff Colyer gets 40%. On 06/24/14, KSN and SurveyUSA had Brownback down by 6 points. On 07/23/14, Brownback trailed by 8 points. On 08/25/14, Brownback trailed by 8 points. And today, 09/08/14, Brownback trails by 7 points. Brownback holds 66% of the Republican base and 74% of the conservative vote. Brownback is down 22 points among independents and down 47 points among moderates. Brownback is down by 7 points in greater Wichita, down by 11 points in greater Kansas City KS, and down by 4 points in greater Topeka.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 825 adults from the state of Kansas 09/04/14 through 09/07/14. Of the adults, 723 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 555 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. You must credit KSN-TV of Wichita KS if you publish, broadcast or cite these results in whole or part.

With Primary Opponent Nan Rich Out Of The Way, Democrat Charlie Crist Seizes the Moment in Florida Governor Fight

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 106 days ago

9 weeks until votes are counted in the 2014 election for Florida Governor, Charlie Crist, fresh off of the 08/26/14 thrashing of Democratic primary opponent Nan Rich, and in the headlines as a result, grabs a Labor Day lead, according to the latest WFLA-TV tracking poll, conducted by SurveyUSA.

Crist is at 45% today, Republican incumbent Governor Rick Scott is at 43%, Libertarian Adrian Wyllie is at 4. 7% of voters are up for grabs. Compared to a WFLA-TV poll 2 weeks ago, Crist is up 4 points, Scott is down 1 point. Crist had trailed by 3, now leads by 2, a 5-point swing to the Democrat. There is movement, poll-on-poll, among voters in Central Florida and among voters age 50 to 64; both groups move toward Crist. Cubans today vote Republican, narrowly. Non-Cuban Hispanics today vote Democratic, narrowly. Whites back Scott by 6. Blacks back Crist by 59.

In Central Florida, Crist now leads by 8 points. In Southeast Florida, Crist leads by 12 points. Elsewhere, Scott leads. Crist leads narrowly among lower- and middle-income voters. Scott leads narrowly among upper-income voters. 19% of Republicans cross-over and vote Democratic today, compared to 11% of Democrats who cross-over and vote Republican. Independents break narrowly for Scott, moderates break decisively for Crist.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 750 state of Florida adults 08/27/14 through 08/28/14. Of the adults, 667 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 580 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. All interviews for this survey were conducted after the results of the 08/26/14 Florida primary were known. Crist defeated Rich by 49 points.

9 Weeks to Election Day, Does Kentucky’s McConnell Begin To Seal The Deal for Term # 6? Bluegrass Voters Oppose Rand Paul Double-Dipping

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 106 days ago

A Labor Day Weekend look at the election for United States Senator from Kentucky shows incumbent Republican Mitch McConnell inching further ahead of Democratic Challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes, according to the latest Bluegrass Poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for the Louisville Courier-Journal, The Lexington Herald-Leader, WHAS-TV and WKYT-TV.

Today, it’s McConnell 46%, Grimes 42%, Libertarian David Patterson 5%, and 8% undecided. McConnell’s 4-point advantage is his strongest 2014 Bluegrass Poll showing to date. The “who will you vote for” results mirror a question later in the survey, which asks voters whether Republicans or Democrats would do a better job of controlling the US Senate. 47% say the Republicans would do a better job running the Senate; 43% say the Democrats would do a better job. In both cases, Republicans are ahead by 4.

Voters by 2:1 trust McConnell to protect KY’s coal interests. Voters by 3:2 trust McConnell on foreign policy. Voters by 4:3 trust McConnell on immigration. Voters split on which Senate candidate is stronger on the economy. Voters by 5:3 trust Grimes to improve the lives of women.

McConnell’s entire lead comes from men, where he is up by 10 points. The contest is effectively even among women. McConnell holds 79% of the Republican base. Grimes holds 67% of the Democratic base. Independents and moderates both break for Grimes. In Western KY, McConnell leads by 23. In Eastern KY, McConnell leads by 27. Grimes keeps it close, with strong performances in greater Louisville, where she leads by 7 points, and in North Central KY, where she leads by 9 points.

McConnell’s Net Favorability today is Minus 10 (46% of KY voters have an unfavorable opinion of him, compared to 36% who have a favorable opinion). This is an improvement from May 2014, when McConnell was at Minus 20. Grimes’s Net Favorability today is Plus 1 (38% have a favorable opinion of her, compared to 37% who have an unfavorable opinion). Grimes’s unfavorable numbers have risen slowly but steadily since May 2014, when she was Plus 8. Patterson has a Minus 6 Net Favorability today, but remains largely unknown (6% like him, 12% dislike him, 46% are neutral, and 36% have no opinion whatsoever). As one point of reference, President Barack Obama is Minus 28 today (29% view him favorably, 57% view him unfavorably). As a second point of reference, former President Bill Clinton is Plus 27 today (53% view him favorably, 27% unfavorably).

U.S. Senator Rand Paul is at Plus 7 today (39% view him favorably, 32% view him unfavorably). Even so, 66% of KY voters do not want to change Kentucky law to permit Paul to run for both the US Senate and for the White House simultaneously in 2016. 22% of KY voters say Paul should run for just the White House. 24% say Paul should run for just the Senate. 15% say Paul should run for both offices at the same time. 33% say Paul should not run for anything.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of Kentucky adults 08/25/14 through 08/27/14. Of the adults, 647 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 569 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

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