Will Hillary Clinton Drag Henry Perea Across the Finish Line in Fresno? Or will Donald Trump’s Army Marshal Forces for Lee Brand?

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/20/16 12:15 AM

SurveyUSA polling for KFSN-TV in Fresno shows that Donald Trump in California may receive the smallest percentage of votes of any Republican candidate for President in the past 100 years. The question in Fresno is: how does an overwhelming Clinton romp in the Golden State translate when ballots are counted in the city of Fresno’s non-partisan election for Mayor?

Henry R Perea is backed 3:1 by Latinos, 5:3 by African Americans, 5:1 among Strong Democrats.

Lee Brand is backed 2:1 among whites and 9:1 among Strong Republicans.

A larger white, conservative, Republican turnout in the city of Fresno helps Brand and Brand wins. A larger non-white, liberal, Democratic turnout in the city of Fresno helps Perea and Perea wins.

At the moment, the two are exactly where they have been for months: tied.

Not “sort of” tied, or “effectively even.” Exactly and precisely tied: 44% for Brand. 44% for Perea.

Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot (about 1 in every 6 voters), Perea leads by 22 points. Is this evidence of greater enthusiasm for Perea? Unclear. Is this evidence of the Democratic Party having a stronger Get-Out-The-Vote operation in California? Perhaps. Among voters who have not yet returned a ballot but who promise to do so before polls close on 11/08/16, Brand leads by 4 points.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from the city of Fresno 10/16/16 through 10/18/16. Of the adults, 683 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 569 who have already voted or who promise to do so. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (76% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (24% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Sitting Fresno mayor Ashley Swearengin is term limited. Swearengin won election in 2008 by defeating Henry R. Perea’s son, Henry T. Perea.

On Eve of Final Debate, Clinton 10 Atop Trump Nationwide in Take-No-Prisoners Campaign; She Leads by 44 Points Among Urban Women … He Leads by 9 Points Among Rural Women

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/19/16 12:38 PM

With Americans across the country already voting, 1 day till the 3rd Presidential debate and 20 days until votes are counted, Democrat Hillary Clinton defeats Republican Donald Trump 46% to 36% in an election today, 10/18/16. Libertarian Gary Johnson gets 5%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets 2%.

In research conducted exclusively for the Boston Globe and Colby College of Waterville, Maine, SurveyUSA finds:

Trump leads by 6 points among white voters.
Clinton leads by 79 points among African American voters.
Clinton leads by 35 points among Hispanic voters.

Trump leads by 15 points in rural America.
Clinton leads by 8 points in suburban America.
Clinton leads by 34 points in urban America.

Among all women, Clinton leads by 13 points. That breaks down this way:

Trump leads by 9 points among rural women.
Clinton leads by 12 points among suburban women.
Clinton leads by 44 points among urban women.

Seniors split, 41% for Clinton, 40% for Trump. Clinton leads by 30 points among the youngest voters. Independents split, 34% for Trump, 34% for Clinton. Moderates break for Clinton 45% to 33%. The most affluent voters break narrowly for Trump. Clinton leads 2:1 among the least affluent voters.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 adults nationwide 10/11/16 through 10/14/16. All interviews were conducted after the 2nd Presidential debate on 10/09/16. Of the adults, 878 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 845 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote before polls close 11/08/16. This research was conducted 100% online.

Battle for Every Vote in Tarheel State: Clinton/Trump, Burr/Ross, McCrory/Cooper All Neck-and-Neck As Early Voting Nears Start

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/18/16 08:00 PM

24 hours before the final Presidential debate between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton, and 48 hours before North Carolina voters begin casting ballots, Clinton nominally leads Trump by two points, 46% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for Time Warner Cable News. Libertarian Gary Johnson takes 6% of the vote; 4% of likely voters are undecided. In a 2-way match-up, Clinton still edges Trump by 2 points, 48% to 46%.

Trump leads by 11 points among men; Clinton leads by 12 among women — a 23-point gender gap. Among suburban men, Trump leads by 3; among suburban women Clinton leads by 33. In rural NC, Trump leads by 34 points among men, and by 6 points among women. Trump leads among middle-aged voters; Clinton leads among younger and older voters. Among whites, Trump leads 5:3; among blacks, Clinton leads by nearly 7:1. 9% of registered Republicans cross over to vote for Clinton; 17% of registered Democrats cross over to vote for Trump. Unaffiliated voters — those who have not registered a political party preference with the state — are divided. 88% of those who, regardless of their party registration, consider themselves to be Republicans vote Trump; 94% of those who identify as Democrats vote Clinton. Self-described independents favor Trump by 6 points. Clinton wins moderates by 8 points.

Trump leads by 17 points among those who say the economy is the most important issue in this year’s election, and by 45 points among those who say immigration is most important. Clinton leads by 32 points among voters focused on health care and by 62 points among voters who say education is the most important issue. Among voters with high school educations, Trump leads 2:1; among voters who have attended some college, Trump holds a slight lead; among those who have graduated a 4-year college, Clinton leads 5:3. Men with high school educations prefer Trump by nearly 5:1. College-educated whites break for Clinton, 45% to 39%.

In the race for United States Senator from North Carolina, Republican Richard Burr today edges Democrat Deborah Ross 45% to 43%. Burr leads by 12 points among men; Ross leads by 8 points among women. Both Burr and Ross hold 86% of their self-identified partisan base; those describing themselves as independents split, with 12% of independents voting for Libertarian Sean Haugh, who takes 6% of the vote overall. Burr leads in greater Greensboro; Ross leads in greater Raleigh. Elsewhere, the race is tied.

Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper today edges Republican incumbent Governor Pat McCrory 47% to 45%. Cooper leads by 8 points among voters under age 50; McCrory leads by 6 among voters age 50+. Whites back McCrory by 15 points; blacks back Cooper by 55 points. Independents back Cooper by 5 points; moderates back Cooper by 17. High school educated voters prefer McCrory 5:3; college educated voters prefer Cooper 5:3. Cooper edges McCrory among the least affluent and leads by 8 among the most affluent; middle-income voters split. Cooper leads by 12 in greater Raleigh; McCrory leads by 14 in southern and coastal North Carolina; the race is tied elsewhere.

77% of registered voters say it is “very important” whoever is elected President is qualified to be Commander in Chief on their first day in office. Among Clinton voters, 92% say it is very important; among Trump voters, 65% do.

51% say that based on the content of leaked emails from the Clinton campaign, the Democratic National Committee did not treat the Clinton and Sanders campaigns evenhandedly. 29% say the DNC did treat the campaigns evenhandedly. 77% of Trump voters say the DNC did not act evenhandedly; 24% of Clinton voters agree.

49% of registered voters say based on what they know about the way in which Donald Trump has treated women that Trump is unfit to serve as President. 47% say Trump is not unfit to serve. 32% say Hillary Clinton is unfit to serve as President based on what they know about the way in which Bill Clinton has treated women; 61% say Hillary Clinton is not unfit to serve. Among Trump voters, 3% say Donald Trump is unfit to serve based on what they know about how Donald Trump treats women; among Trump voters, 62% say Hillary Clinton is unfit to serve as President based on what they know about how Bill Clinton treats women.

HB2, the state law passed 7 months ago which prohibited local governments from passing anti-discrimination rules and overturned the Charlotte ordinance that would have allowed transgender people to use the bathroom corresponding to their gender identity, is today seen as a good idea by 45% of registered voters, and a bad idea by 43%. In April, voters by an 11-point margin called the law a good idea. In April, 45% of voters predicted the law would have a negative impact on business, while 29% said it would have no impact. Today, 58% say there has been a negative impact on business; 25% say the law has made no difference. Similarly, in April, a 20-point margin of registered voters said the law would have a negative impact on North Carolina’s overall image; today, that margin has widened to 36 points. Unchanged in seven months: an 11-point margin of registered voters, 50% to 39%, say transgender people should not be allowed to use the bathroom of the gender they identify with.

Context and Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of North Carolina adults 10/14/16 through 10/16/16. Of the adults, 723 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 651 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before 11/08/16 in the Presidential election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Republican Mitt Romney defeated Democrat Barack Obama by 2 points in 2012; Obama defeated Republican John McCain by less than 1 point in 2008. North Carolina has 15 electoral votes.

DFL Candidate Craig Has Advantage in Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District; Seat Would be ‘Pick-Up’ for Democrats in US House

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/18/16 06:30 PM

3 weeks till votes are counted in Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District, DFL candidate Angie Craig is ever-so-slightly ahead of Republican Jason Lewis in the fiercely fought contest for the open seat left vacant by retiring Republican John Kline.

According to SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities, it’s Craig 46% at this hour, Lewis 41%, with 12% of voters yet to decide. Lewis leads among middle-aged voters, but Craig leads among those younger and older. Lewis leads among men, but Craig leads among women; there is a 13-point Gender Gap.

Among voters who say the economy is the most important issue in 2016, Craig leads by 5. Among voters who say terrorism is most important, Lewis leads by 33. Craig holds 88% of the Democratic base. Lewis holds 86% of the Republican base. Independents favor Craig by 9 points, moderates favor Craig by 24 points. Craig leads among lower-income and middle-income voters. Lewis pulls even with Craig among the district’s most affluent voters. Lewis leads among those who started but did not finish college. Craig leads among those with a high-school education and among those with a 4-year college degree.

At this hour, Democrat Hillary Clinton carries Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District by 8 points, 44% to Republican Donald Trump’s 36%. Of Trump supporters, 89% vote for the Republican Lewis. Of Clinton supporters, 88% vote for the Democrat Craig.

Context and Methodology: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 registered voters from MN-02 10/13/16 through 10/16/16 using Registration-Based Sample (RBS, also-known-as: voter list sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 600 as likely to vote before polls close on 11/08/16. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (64% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (known as the cell-phone respondents), were contacted by live interviewers, who hand-dialed the respondent’s cell-phone number, secured the respondent’s cooperation, ensured the respondent’s safety, asked the questions, entered the answers, and remained on the line until the conclusion of the call. MN-02 is Southeast of the Twin-Cities, slicing through Dakota, Goodhue, and Wabasha counties along the Wisconsin border. Incumbent Republican Kline was first elected in 2002, and won re-election to his 7th term in 2014 with 56% of the vote. Democrats aspire to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2016, though few think this is likely. For Democrats to succeed, they will need to flip MN-02 and other seats like it across the country.

48 Hours Till Early Voting Begins in Kansas, No Evident Erosion in Trump Support; Republican Moran Safe

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/18/16 05:15 PM

5 weeks ago, riding high nationally, Donald Trump led Hillary Clinton by 12 points in the reliably red state of Kansas. Today, riding low, Trump leads Clinton by 11 points, effectively unchanged, as Sunflower State voters continue to see the Republican as the better choice for President, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for KSN-TV in Wichita.

Trump is at 47%, Clinton is at 36%, Libertarian Gary Johnson is at 7% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein is at 2% today, 48 hours until early voting in Kansas begins. Any misgivings about Trump that voters have are expressed this way: 5 weeks ago, 57% of Trump voters said they were voting “for Trump,” compared to 38% who said they were voting “against Clinton.” Today, 51% are voting “for Trump,” a decline of 6 percentage points; 47% say they are voting “against Clinton,” an increase of 9 percentage points. The opposite is true of Clinton: 5 weeks ago, 55% of Clinton supporters said they were voting “for Clinton,” compared to 43% who were voting “against Trump.” Today, 64% of Clinton backers are voting “for Clinton,” an increase of 9 percentage points; 34% are voting “against Trump,” a decrease of 8 percentage points. 41% of Trump supporters today have reservations about Trump. 44% of Clinton supporters today have reservations about Clinton.

Kansas voters say the economy is the most important issue in 2016. Of voters focused on the economy, Trump leads Clinton by 15 points. Among voters who say terrorism is the most important issue, Trump leads Clinton by 25 points. Among voters who say immigration is the most important issue, Trump leads Clinton by 67 points.

Though Clinton performs better among women than men, she still trails Trump among women in Kansas. Trump leads by 6 points among all women, which is a blend of him leading by 5 points among suburban women and leading by 23 points among rural women.

In the contest for United States Senator from Kansas, incumbent Republican Jerry Moran is well positioned at this hour for a second term, 25 points ahead of Democratic challenger Patrick Wiesner. 5 weeks ago, Moran led Wiesner 50% to 34%, today, 56% to 31%. Libertarian Robert Garrard is at 5% today. In rural Kansas, Moran leads by 43 points. Among seniors, Moran leads by 44 points. Among evangelical voters, Moran leads by 59 points.

Statewide Favorability Ratings:

Democratic President Barack Obama is viewed extremely favorably by 19% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 42%.
Republican Governor Sam Brownback is viewed extremely favorably by 5% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 49%.
Republican Senator Pat Roberts is viewed extremely favorably by 9% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 20%.
Moran is viewed extremely favorably by 11% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 12%.

Context and Methodology:

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Kansas adults 10/11/16 through 10/15/16. Of the adults, 675 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 601 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 election for President, 549 were determined to be likely to vote in the election for U.S. Senator. 3% of voters interviewed for this survey said they almost always vote in Presidential elections, but would not vote in 2016 because they did not like any of the candidates on the ballot. An offsetting 4% of voters said they almost never vote in Presidential elections but would vote in 2016 because they were drawn to one of this year’s candidates. All of the interviews for this survey were conducted after the 2nd Presidential debate on 10/09/16, but during a week when a number of women came forward with allegation of possible sexual misconduct by Trump, and at a time when Trump, claiming to be newly “unshackled,” spoke less guardedly. It is unclear whether additional credible allegations will surface against Trump, or whether the allegations made thus far will be discredited and the tone and tenor of the campaign discourse will become less rancorous. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (62% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (38% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Kansas has 6 electoral votes in 2016. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried the state by 22 points as Obama won a 2nd term. In 2008, John McCain carried the state by 15 points as Obama won his 1st term. In 2004, George W Bush carried KS by 25 points over John Kerry on Bush’s way to a 2nd term. In 2000, Bush carried KS by 21 points. Early voting begins in 48 hours, on Wednesday 10/19/16.

On Eve of Final Presidential Debate, Trump in California Risks Getting Smaller Percentage of Popular Vote Than Any Republican Candidate in the Past 100 Years; Recreational Marijuana Prop 64 Still Leads Ever-So-Slightly; Harris Safe

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/17/16 08:00 PM

Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have lost support in the past 17 days, as Republicans beat up on Clinton and Democrats beat up on Trump, according to a SurveyUSA pre-election tracking poll conducted for KABC-TV in Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno.

Compared to an identical poll conducted before the 1st Presidential debate, Clinton is down 3 points, Trump is down 3 points, and undecided voters have doubled. Today, as then, Clinton’s lead is 26 percentage points.

With Trump’s support down to 30% at this hour, he falls below the Plimsoll line, and risks receiving a smaller percentage of the popular vote than any Republican candidate in the past 100 years. The low-water mark is currently held by George Herbert Walker Bush, who got 33% of the popular vote in California in a 3-way contest in 1992.

Trump’s support has steadily eroded among the youngest voters, down from 29% in mid-September to 25% in late-September to 20% today. Among independents, Trump has dropped from 28% in mid-September to 22% in late-September to 17% today. Among high-school educated voters, Trump has fallen from 48% to 28%. Among gun owners, Trump has fallen from 47% to 37%. Among affluent voters, Trump has fallen from 38% to 31%.

Counter-intuitively, given the cloud that Trump now campaigns under, his support among Evangelicals has increased, from 46% to 49% to now 53%. Clinton among Evangelicals has fallen from 46% to 36%. Among strong Republicans, Trump is up from 80% to 89%. Clinton is down from 19% to 6%. Among very conservative voters, Clinton is down from 29% to 19%. Among very liberal voters, Trump is down from 6% to 2%, Clinton is up from 84% to 92%. The number of Trump supporters who say they are not voting “for Trump,” but rather “against Clinton,” has increased from 36% to 43% to now 46%. At the same time, the number of Trump voters who acknowledge having reservations about Trump has not budged: 33% then, 33% now.

In an election today for United States Senator from CA, to replace retiring Democrat Barbara Boxer, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Democrat Loretta Sanchez, 45% to 24%. The 21-point Harris advantage is up materially poll-on-poll; it is her largest lead to date. The number of Latinos voting for Harris has dropped from 39% to 35% to now 30%. The number of independents voting for Harris has increased from 27% to 33% to now 35%.

Ballot Measures:

Prop 56, which would increase the tax on cigarettes to $2 per pack, is favored to pass 57% to 35%. Support has eroded.
Proposition 62, which would end the death penalty in CA and replace it with life in prison, trails by 18 points today and is headed for defeat.
Proposition 63, which outlaws large-capacity magazines and requires background checks on ammo purchases, leads by more than 2:1 and will pass.
Proposition 64, which would legalize, regulate and tax recreational marijuana, is backed 51% to 40%. Unchanged from mid-and late-September.

Statewide Favorability Ratings: 

President Barack Obama is viewed extremely favorably by 39% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 24%.
Trump is viewed extremely favorably by 12% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 56%. Worse than before.
Clinton is viewed extremely favorably by 20% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 33%. Worse than before.
Governor Jerry Brown is viewed extremely favorably by 15% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 17%. Unchanged.
Dianne Feinstein is viewed extremely favorably by 17% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 18%.
Boxer is viewed extremely favorably by 17% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 21%. Better than before.

Context and Methodology: 

SurveyUSA interviewed 900 state of California adults 10/13/16 through 10/15/16. All interviews were conducted after the 2nd Presidential debate on 10/09/16, and during a time of unflattering revelations about both Trump and Clinton. Of the adults, 820 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 725 were judged by SurveyUSA to have already voted in the Presidential election or as certain to do so before polls close on 11/08/16. Of registered voters, 3% tell SurveyUSA they almost always vote in a Presidential election but will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates. 6% of voters tell SurveyUSA they almost never vote in Presidential elections but will vote in 2016 because they are particularly drawn to one of the candidates. The survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (58% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (42% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the screen of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Polling ballot measures and citizen initiatives is an inexact science. In general, having nothing to do with California specifically and having nothing to do with 2016 uniquely, opposition to a ballot measure increases as Election Day approaches. Rarely does support for a ballot measure increase over time. As a result, the outcome of Prop 64 cannot be assured at this hour.

After Denouncing Trump, Republican Paulsen Well-Positioned for Re-Election in Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/17/16 05:25 PM

25 days until votes are counted in Minnesota’s 3rd U.S. Congressional District, incumbent Republican Erik Paulsen is comfortably ahead of Democratic challenger Terri Bonoff, 49% to 38%, in spite of, or perhaps because of, Paulsen’s decision to denounce Donald Trump, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities.

Paulsen seeks his 5th term in Washington. His district, west of Minneapolis, is bisected by U.S. Highway 12 running East and West through Orono and Independence counties, and by Interstate 494 running North and South through Eden Prairie, Minnetonka and Plymouth counties. Paulsen was first elected in 2008. He won by 8 percentage points in 2008, won by 22 points in 2010, won by 16 points in 2012, won by 25 points in 2014, and leads by 11 points at this hour.

Paulsen holds 90% of the Republican base, compared to Bonoff who holds 84% of the Democratic base. Bonoff leads among the youngest voters, but Paulsen leads by double-digits among voters age 35+. Independents back Paulsen by 11 points. Moderates break for Bonoff by 4 points. Paulsen leads among those with less formal education and those with more formal education, leads among the rich, leads among the middle-income voters, and leads among the poor.

Paulsen has a Plus 22 Net job approval rating — 51% of 11/08/16 voters approve of the job Paulsen is doing in Congress; 29% disapprove. Voters focused on terrorism, taxes and the economy back Paulsen. Voters focused on health care split. Voters focused on education back Bonoff.

About this poll: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 registered voters from Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District 10/10/16 through 10/13/16, using Registration Based sample (RBS, also known as: voter list sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington D.C. All of the interviews were conducted after Paulsen announced 10/09/16 that he would not vote for Donald Trump, the titular head of his Republican party. Of the registered voters, 579 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home phone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were contacted on their cell phone, by live interviewers, who hand-dialed each cell phone number, secured the respondent’s cooperation, guaranteed the respondent’s safety, read the questions, input the answers, and remained on the phone until the completion of the interview.

In Arlington TX, Voters Deadlocked Over New Baseball Stadium for Texas Rangers

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/17/16 04:49 PM

25 days until votes are counted in the city of Arlington TX, voters are split on a ballot measure that would fund a new professional baseball stadium for the Texas Rangers, according to this exclusive WFAA/Star-Telegram Arlington Ballpark Poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

42% of voters are “for” the proposed public-private partnership, which would extend an existing one-half cent sales-tax, and would impose other taxes on tourists. 42% of voters are against. 16% tell SurveyUSA they are not yet sure how they would vote on a proposed ballot measure.

The ballot measure is backed by men, opposed by women, backed by middle-aged voters age 35% to 49%, but opposed by young and old.

Voters by 5:3 say it is unlikely that the Rangers will leave Arlington, if the measure does not pass.

Context: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults from the city of Arlington 10/11/16 through 10/13/16. Of the adults, 606 were registered to vote. Of those who are registered, SurveyUSA determined by 504 were likely to vote. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters), were shown a questionnaire on the screen of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Caution: Opposition to a ballot measure — having nothing uniquely to do with Texas or the city of Arlington or with 2016 — increases over time. While it is possible that the Rangers’ stadium will built, this year’s ballot measure may be the last of the great hurrahs.

In Texas, Trump Sees Clinton High-Beams in His Rear-View Mirror: A Blip on the Radar? Or Early Evidence of a GOP Collapse?

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/14/16 05:30 AM

26 days till votes are counted in Texas, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 4 points, 47% to 43%, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 3% and Green Party Candidate Jill Stein at 1%, according to an exclusive Texas Tenga poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

No Republican has carried Texas by fewer than 13 points since Bob Dole defeated Bill Clinton by 5 points 20 years ago, when Texan Ross Perot siphoned 7% of the vote. Today, Trump leads by 33 points among white Texans, but Clinton leads by 64 points among African Americans and by 23 points among Latinos. (The survey was conducted bilingually, in the respondent’s choice of English or Spanish. 27% of the likely voter electorate is Latino in SurveyUSA’s data set.)

Though there is not an obvious gender gap — Trump leads narrowly among both men and women — different women respond differently to Trump: Among rural Texas women, Trump leads by 41 points. Among suburban Texas women, Clinton leads by 1 point. Trump leads by 35 points among Evangelical voters, leads by 10 points in military households and leads by 10 points among high-school educated voters. Clinton has a narrow advantage among lower-income and middle-income Texans, but Trump leads by 13 points among affluent voters.

Trump holds 88% of the Republican base, but trails Clinton by a nominal 2 percentage points among independents. Clinton holds 94% of the Democratic base, and leads Trump by 8 points among self-identified moderates. Trump leads among voters age 50+, Clinton leads among voters under age 50. The older and whiter the electorate, the better Trump will perform.

Of Trump supporters, 61% say they are voting “for Trump,” compared to 39% who are voting “against Clinton.” Of Clinton supporters, 68% say they are voting “for Clinton,” compared to 30% who are voting “against Trump.”

Trump leads by 8 points in North Texas, which includes the cities of Dallas and Fort Worth, and Dallas, Tarrant and 41 surrounding counties. Trump leads by 6 points in East Texas, which includes the city of Houston, Harris and 59 surrounding counties. Trump leads by 15 points in West Texas, which includes the city of El Paso, El Paso County and 87 surrounding counties. Clinton leads in Central Texas, which includes the cities of Austin and San Antonio, and Travis, Bexar and 26 other counties. And Clinton leads by 9 points in South Texas, which includes the cities of Laredo and Brownsville, and Webb, Cameron and 33 other counties.

Context and methodology: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from the state of Texas 10/10/16 through 10/12/16. During these 3 days, Trump was the center of a firestorm of criticism, including his un-endorsement by a number of leading national Republicans. It is unclear if, during the 4 days before early voting begins and the 26 days until all votes are counted, whether Trump will continue to sink, stabilize or rebound. The electorate is volatile. It is possible Trump will carry Texas by more traditional margins than this data set shows. It is also possible that the state’s score will be settled in the single digits. Of the 800 adults interviewed, 734 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 638 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/08/16 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephone (67% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home phones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (33% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Mitt Romney carried Texas by 16 points in 2012. John McCain carried Texas by 13 points in 2008. Texan George W. Bush carried Texas by 23 points in 2004 when Bush was elected to his 2nd term. Bush carried Texas by 22 points in 2000 when he was elected to his first term.

In Oregon, Brown and Pierce in Dogfight for Governor Mansion, Every Vote Vital; Clinton Safely Atop Trump; Wyden Well-Positioned for Re-Election to U.S. Senate

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/13/16 07:00 PM

26 days till votes are counted in Oregon, Democrat Hillary Clinton is 10 points in front of Republican Donald Trump, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV in Portland. Libertarian Gary Johnson is backed by 6%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets 4%.

Reciprocal efforts by the Trump campaign to suppress Democratic turnout and by the Clinton campaign to suppress Republican turnout may not cause Oregon’s 7 Electoral Votes to flip, but such cross-winds could well make a difference in the state’s fiercely fought Governor’s election.

At the top of the ticket, Clinton leads by 23 points among women; Trump leads by 4 points among men — a 27-point Gender Gap. Clinton leads by 4 points among rural women, leads by 22 points among suburban women. Clinton leads by 21 points among voters under age 50; the candidates run even among voters age 50+.

Clinton holds 91% of the Democratic base. Trump holds 82% of the Republican base. Moderates break for Clinton by 18 points. Independent men vote for Trump by 16 points. Independent women vote for Clinton by 10 points. Voters focused on terrorism, national security and immigration back Trump. Voters focused on the economy, education and the environment back Clinton.

Of Trump supporters, 51% say they are voting “for Trump,” compared to 48% who are voting “against Clinton.” Of Clinton supporters, 64% say they are voting “for Clinton,” compared to 35% who are voting “against Trump.” 52% of Trump backers are “enthusiastic,” compared to 58% of Clinton backers. 44% of Trump backers have reservations about their candidate, compared to 39% of Clinton backers.

Trump carries military households by 23 points, carries Evangelicals by 47 points. Clinton leads by 3 points among the least affluent voters, leads by 10 points among middle-income voters, and leads by 24 points among affluent voters. Trump leads among high-school educated voters, Clinton leads among those who have started college but not finished, and among those with a 4-year college degree.

In an election for Governor today, 10/13/16, 6 days till mail-in voting begins, Democrat Kate Brown leads republican Bud Pierce 46% to 42%. Pierce holds 81% of the GOP base, Brown holds 84% of the Democratic base. Independent men break for Pierce by 14 points. Independent women split. High-school educated men back Pierce by 21 points. College-educated white voters back Brown by 19 points.

Pierce leads among rural men by 24 points; rural women split. Brown leads by 8 points in greater Portland. Pierce leads by a nominal 2 points in the rest of Oregon. Pierce leads by 50 points among Evangelicals and leads by 26 points in military households. Pierce leads overwhelmingly among voters focused on immigration and national security and leads materially among voters focused on terrorism. Brown leads materially among voters focused on the economy and leads overwhelmingly among voters focused on education and the environment.

In the contest for United States Senator from Oregon, Democrat Ron Wyden is cruising to re-election for his 4th full term, today leading Republican Mark Callahan 54% to 32%. Wyden leads among men and women, young and old, rich and poor, whites and non-whites.

Context and methodology: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from the state of Oregon 10/10/16 through 10/12/16. All interviews were conducted after the 2nd Presidential debate on 10/09/13. Of the 800 adults interviewed, 730 were registered to vote. Of the 730 registered voters, 654 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/08/16 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home phones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Barack Obama carried Oregon by 12 points in 2012 and by 16 points in 2008. John Kerry carried Oregon by 4 points in 2004. Al Gore carried Oregon by 3 points in 2000. In 2010, Wyden defeated Republican Jim Huffman by 18 points; Wyden leads by 22 points today. In 2015, Democratic Governor John Kitzhaber resigned, leaving then Secretary of State Brown to take his place.

Copyright 2017 SurveyUSA®, Clifton NJ, all rights reserved. Terms & Conditions.