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In CA-21, Incumbent Republican Valadao Well Positioned Against Democratic Challenger Renteria

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 51 days ago

8 weeks to Election Day, in California’s 21st US Congressional District, incumbent Republican David Valadao has built a strong coalition and would appear to be a favorite to hold onto his seat, according to a KFSN-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

In an election today, 09/09/14, it’s Valadao 56%, Renteria 37%. Valadao’s support is older. He leads by more than 2:1 among seniors. Renteria’s support is younger. She leads 2:1 among the youngest voters. Every younger voter who turns out on Election Day helps the challenger. Valadao leads by 25 points among men and by 14 points among women.

Latino voters split, 47% for Renteria, 46% for Valadao. Valadao’s entire lead comes from white voters, where he leads 5:1. Asian American voters split.

Valadao holds 94% of the Republican base. Renteria holds just 63% of the Democratic base. 30% of Democrats cross-over and vote Republican. Independents break for the Republican by 21 points. Moderates split. Lower-income voters split, but middle-income and upper-income voters break 2:1 Republican.

Valadao is seen as more trustworthy, 48% to 28%.
Valadao better reflects voters’ views on the water crisis, 50% to 29%.
Valadao better reflects voters’ views on immigration, 44% to 31%.
Valadao better reflects voters’ views on unemployment, 48% to 28%.

This research conducted 100% by telephone; live operators used to contact cell-phone respondents: SurveyUSA interviewed 600 registered voters from California’s 21st Congressional District 09/03/14 through 09/08/14, using Registration Based Sample (RBS, also known as: Voter List Sample) provided by Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 439 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were interviewed by live operators, who hand-dialed cell phones, secured the respondent’s cooperation, qualified the respondent, conducted the interview and remained on the line until the completion of the call. You must credit KFSN-TV, the ABC-owned station in Fresno, if you publish, broadcast, or cite these results in whole or part.

8 Weeks Till Votes are Counted, Florida Governor Duel Back to Steady-State: Scott 45%, Crist 44%

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 51 days ago

The DNA double helix that is the 2014 Florida Governor’s fight is beautifully illustrated in this exclusive WFLA-TV interactive tracking graph, which shows the results of the last 3 WFLA-TV polls, since the name of Libertarian Adrian Wyllie was added to the survey. As time passes, the chart moves to the right, and as voters make up their mind, and as fewer-and-fewer are undecided, the lines on the chart move from the bottom to the top. Today SurveyUSA finds incumbent Republican Rick Scott at 45%, Democratic challenger Charlie Crist at 44%, Wyllie at 3%.

Wyllie today hurts Crist, taking twice as many votes from the Democrat as he does from the Republican. Normally, this wouldn’t matter with a 3rd-party candidate who is at 3%, but in a contest that may be decided by a few thousand votes, each one is precious.

Scott continues to nip at Crist’s heels in Southeast Florida, a Democratic bastion where Democrats typically run up big margins, to off-set Republican strongholds elsewhere in the sprawling state. Today, Scott is within 9 of Crist in Dade and Broward counties, which include Miami and Fort Lauderdale. In Central FL, always a battleground, the interactive tracking graph again models a DNA helix: Scott led by 8 on 08/19/14, Crist led by 8 on 08/29/14, Scott leads by 8 today.

Independents split in this WFLA-TV release, 41% Scott, 41% Crist. Moderates, however, break by 20 points for the Democrat. The Gender Gap today is 17 points. Cubans, narrowly, vote Republican. Non-cuban Hispanics vote Democratic.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 state of FL adults 09/05/14 through 09/08/14. Of the adults, 678 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 576 were likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. You must credit WFLA-TV if you re-broadcast, publish or cite these poll results in whole or part.

The Kansas Trifecta: Contests for U.S. Senate, Governor and Secretary of State, All Intertwined, All Too-Close-to-Call.

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 52 days ago

8 weeks to Election Day, anything is possible in Kansas. Three top-of-ticket Republican incumbents could win. Three top-of-ticket incumbent Republicans could lose. Or there could be a mix-and-match outcome. That’s according to the latest KSN-TV News Poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Complicating any analysis: the fates of the incumbent Republicans may be intertwined.

Let’s start with the contest that rocketed to national prominence last week, the fight for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Republican Pat Roberts. As of today, 09/08/14, about 7 in 10 Kansas likely voters are aware that Democrat Chad Taylor has withdrawn from the race, with a formal request that his name be taken off the ballot. About 6 in 10 Kansas likely voters are aware that Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, a Republican in his own tight-fight for re-election (more on that in a moment), has inserted himself into the fray and refuses to remove Democrat Taylor from the ballot. That creates a nightmare for state and national party officials, for Kansas voters, and for public opinion pollsters.

At this hour, subject to possible lawsuits and back-room bargains which could further upend the race, Independent Greg Orman and Roberts are effectively tied, 37% for Orman, 36% for Roberts, 10% for Taylor, 6% for Libertarian Randall Batson. The exact wording of the question that SurveyUSA asked respondents is:“If there were an election for US Senate today, and Democrat Chad Taylor’s name still appeared on the ballot even though he no longer wants to run, and the other names on the ballot were Republican Pat Roberts, Independent Greg Orman, and Libertarian Randall Batson, who would you vote for?”

Orman gets 52% of the Democratic vote, 42% of the independent vote, and 26% of the Republican vote. Roberts holds 59% of the Republican base, and is backed by 11% of Democrats, and 16% of independents. Orman leads among the most educated voters and among the most affluent voters. The contest is effectively tied in Greater Wichita, and effectively tied in greater Kansas City KS. Orman has a slight lead in greater Topeka. Voters focused on the economy back Orman over Roberts 3:2. Voters focused on Obamacare back Roberts over Orman 2:1.

Of voters who tell SurveyUSA that they had planned to vote for Taylor prior to his withdrawal from the race, 43% today vote for Orman, 30% still vote for Taylor, 15% cross-over and vote for Roberts, 7% vote for Batson and 5% throw up their hands and don’t know yet what to do.

Kobach’s insertion into the Senate contest did nothing, at first blush, to help his own campaign for re-election. 2 weeks ago, KSN-TV and SurveyUSA had Kobach tied with Democratic challenger Jean Schodorf. Today, the contest is still within the theoretical margin of sampling error, but Schodorf now has a nominal 3-point advantage, 46% to 43%. Men don’t take kindly to Kobach’s interference. 2 weeks ago, Kobach had led by 10 among male likely voters, now by 3. And residents of greater Kansas City KS don’t take kindly to Kobach either. In that part of the state, Kobach had been tied with Schodorf, but today the Democrat Schodorf leads by 7. The contest is a jump ball that could go either way. It’s too early to tell whether Kobach will be written about, years from now, as a hero, who saved the US Senate for Republicans and got himself re-elected in the process, or as a goat, who sunk himself and the Republican Party with him.

Sitting on the sidelines, ostensibly minding his own business, is incumbent Republican Governor Sam Brownback. Brownback could fairly be accused of being, in a “wave-election” year when Republicans are expected to win statehouse and congressional contests coast-to-coast, the falling tide that is sinking all Kansas Republican boats. Brownback was already in trouble long before anyone was worried about Roberts and long before anyone outside of Kansas knew Kobach’s name. Now, Brownback is staring at basically the same “upside-down” numbers that he howled about when SurveyUSA released them 2 weeks ago. Today, Brownback is down 7 points to Democratic challenger Paul Davis. The Democratic ticket of Davis and Jill Docking gets 47% today, the Republican ticket of Brownback and Lt. Gov Jeff Colyer gets 40%. On 06/24/14, KSN and SurveyUSA had Brownback down by 6 points. On 07/23/14, Brownback trailed by 8 points. On 08/25/14, Brownback trailed by 8 points. And today, 09/08/14, Brownback trails by 7 points. Brownback holds 66% of the Republican base and 74% of the conservative vote. Brownback is down 22 points among independents and down 47 points among moderates. Brownback is down by 7 points in greater Wichita, down by 11 points in greater Kansas City KS, and down by 4 points in greater Topeka.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 825 adults from the state of Kansas 09/04/14 through 09/07/14. Of the adults, 723 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 555 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. You must credit KSN-TV of Wichita KS if you publish, broadcast or cite these results in whole or part.

With Primary Opponent Nan Rich Out Of The Way, Democrat Charlie Crist Seizes the Moment in Florida Governor Fight

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 58 days ago

9 weeks until votes are counted in the 2014 election for Florida Governor, Charlie Crist, fresh off of the 08/26/14 thrashing of Democratic primary opponent Nan Rich, and in the headlines as a result, grabs a Labor Day lead, according to the latest WFLA-TV tracking poll, conducted by SurveyUSA.

Crist is at 45% today, Republican incumbent Governor Rick Scott is at 43%, Libertarian Adrian Wyllie is at 4. 7% of voters are up for grabs. Compared to a WFLA-TV poll 2 weeks ago, Crist is up 4 points, Scott is down 1 point. Crist had trailed by 3, now leads by 2, a 5-point swing to the Democrat. There is movement, poll-on-poll, among voters in Central Florida and among voters age 50 to 64; both groups move toward Crist. Cubans today vote Republican, narrowly. Non-Cuban Hispanics today vote Democratic, narrowly. Whites back Scott by 6. Blacks back Crist by 59.

In Central Florida, Crist now leads by 8 points. In Southeast Florida, Crist leads by 12 points. Elsewhere, Scott leads. Crist leads narrowly among lower- and middle-income voters. Scott leads narrowly among upper-income voters. 19% of Republicans cross-over and vote Democratic today, compared to 11% of Democrats who cross-over and vote Republican. Independents break narrowly for Scott, moderates break decisively for Crist.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 750 state of Florida adults 08/27/14 through 08/28/14. Of the adults, 667 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 580 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. All interviews for this survey were conducted after the results of the 08/26/14 Florida primary were known. Crist defeated Rich by 49 points.

9 Weeks to Election Day, Does Kentucky’s McConnell Begin To Seal The Deal for Term # 6? Bluegrass Voters Oppose Rand Paul Double-Dipping

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 59 days ago

A Labor Day Weekend look at the election for United States Senator from Kentucky shows incumbent Republican Mitch McConnell inching further ahead of Democratic Challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes, according to the latest Bluegrass Poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for the Louisville Courier-Journal, The Lexington Herald-Leader, WHAS-TV and WKYT-TV.

Today, it’s McConnell 46%, Grimes 42%, Libertarian David Patterson 5%, and 8% undecided. McConnell’s 4-point advantage is his strongest 2014 Bluegrass Poll showing to date. The “who will you vote for” results mirror a question later in the survey, which asks voters whether Republicans or Democrats would do a better job of controlling the US Senate. 47% say the Republicans would do a better job running the Senate; 43% say the Democrats would do a better job. In both cases, Republicans are ahead by 4.

Voters by 2:1 trust McConnell to protect KY’s coal interests. Voters by 3:2 trust McConnell on foreign policy. Voters by 4:3 trust McConnell on immigration. Voters split on which Senate candidate is stronger on the economy. Voters by 5:3 trust Grimes to improve the lives of women.

McConnell’s entire lead comes from men, where he is up by 10 points. The contest is effectively even among women. McConnell holds 79% of the Republican base. Grimes holds 67% of the Democratic base. Independents and moderates both break for Grimes. In Western KY, McConnell leads by 23. In Eastern KY, McConnell leads by 27. Grimes keeps it close, with strong performances in greater Louisville, where she leads by 7 points, and in North Central KY, where she leads by 9 points.

McConnell’s Net Favorability today is Minus 10 (46% of KY voters have an unfavorable opinion of him, compared to 36% who have a favorable opinion). This is an improvement from May 2014, when McConnell was at Minus 20. Grimes’s Net Favorability today is Plus 1 (38% have a favorable opinion of her, compared to 37% who have an unfavorable opinion). Grimes’s unfavorable numbers have risen slowly but steadily since May 2014, when she was Plus 8. Patterson has a Minus 6 Net Favorability today, but remains largely unknown (6% like him, 12% dislike him, 46% are neutral, and 36% have no opinion whatsoever). As one point of reference, President Barack Obama is Minus 28 today (29% view him favorably, 57% view him unfavorably). As a second point of reference, former President Bill Clinton is Plus 27 today (53% view him favorably, 27% unfavorably).

U.S. Senator Rand Paul is at Plus 7 today (39% view him favorably, 32% view him unfavorably). Even so, 66% of KY voters do not want to change Kentucky law to permit Paul to run for both the US Senate and for the White House simultaneously in 2016. 22% of KY voters say Paul should run for just the White House. 24% say Paul should run for just the Senate. 15% say Paul should run for both offices at the same time. 33% say Paul should not run for anything.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of Kentucky adults 08/25/14 through 08/27/14. Of the adults, 647 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 569 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In MN, Franken Approval Soars, But He Still Faces Tough Re-Elect Opposition from Republican Mike McFadden; For Gov, Incumbent Dayton Has Hands Full with Republican Challenger Johnson; Opposition to MNSure Grows

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 64 days ago

In Minnesota, incumbent DFL candidates lead today by 9 points each in contests for Governor and US Senate, according to the latest KSTP-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Al Franken tops 50%, and leads Republican Mike McFadden 51% to 42%. Mark Dayton gets to 49%, and leads Republican Jeff Johnson 49% to 40%. The 11/04/14 election is in 10 weeks.

Governor Dayton’s job approval is Plus 14 today: 51% of registered voters approve of the job Dayton is doing, 37% disapprove. Among Democrats, Dayton’s approval is 8:1. Among Republicans, Dayton’s disapproval is 7:2.

Senator Franken’s job approval is today the highest it has been in 5 years of SurveyUSA measurement. Franken today is at Plus 21: 56% approve of the job he is doing, compared to 35% who disapprove. Change comes from Independents, where for the first time since 2009, Franken’s approval is higher than disapproval, and from Democrats, where Franken’s approval soars to 90%.

Senator Amy Klobuchar’s job approval today is Plus 32, higher than Franken’s, but less newsworthy only because that’s where Klobuchar’s job approval has consistently been since SurveyUSA and KSTP began measuring it in 2007, and because Klobuchar is not up for re-election in 2014.

Barack Obama’s job approval is at 38% today, the 2nd lowest recorded in 11 KSTP measurements going back to Obama’s inauguration. Obama’s disapproval is at 52% today, the 2nd highest recorded in 11 KSTP measurements going back to Obama’s inauguration. When disapproval is subtracted from approval, Obama’s Net Approval is at Minus 14 today.

There is effectively no change in sentiment for the Minnesota House of Representatives. Today, 45% say they will vote for a Republican, unchanged from 2 months ago. 43% say they will vote for a Democrat, up a nominal 1 point from 2 months ago.

The Minnesota state legislature remains under water, as it has going back to 2008. Today: 50% of adults disapprove of the legislature, 27% approve.

3:1 opposition to a new office building for the Minnesota state Senate is largely unchanged over the past 10 weeks: today 66% disapprove of the project, 21% approve.

Disapproval of MN’s health insurance exchange, which is called MNSure, is growing. Today, MNSure is Minus 21, compared to Minus 13 four months ago.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of MN adults 08/19/14 through 08/21/14. Of the adults, 725 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 600 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 midterm general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (78% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (22% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In Kansas, Primary Wins for Gov Brownback and Senator Roberts Do Nothing to Pave Path for Re-Election; ‘SOS’ for Incumbent GOP SOS

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 65 days ago

Despite primary wins 3 weeks ago for both top-ticket incumbent Kansas Republicans – Governor Sam Brownback and U.S. Senator Pat Roberts – and despite Kansas being a reliably Red State, both Brownback and Roberts face tough re-election fights for the 11/04/14 general election, according to the latest exclusive KSN-TV poll, conducted by SurveyUSA.

In the contest for Governor, the Republican ticket of Brownback and Jeff Colyer continue to trail the Democratic ticket of Paul Davis and Jill Docking, consistent with 2 previous KSN polls conducted before the 08/05/14 primary. Today, it’s Davis 48%, Brownback 40%. Brownback holds 70% of the Republican base, compared to Davis, who holds 91% of the Democratic base. Independents break 4:3 Democratic, a troubling sign in a state such as Kansas, where Republicans often count on right-leaning independents to cushion their victory margins. More troubling, moderates break 7:2 against the incumbent, an unusually large margin in any state, in any contested race. Democrat Davis leads in all 3 regions of the state: by 10 points in greater Wichita, by 8 points in greater Kansas City KS, and by 4 points in Greater Topeka. Among men, where Red State Republican incumbents often lead by 10, 15 or 20 points, Brownback trails by 1. Brownback trails in every age group. SurveyUSA’s most recent KSN poll, on 07/22/14, also showed Davis 8 atop Brownback. A 06/23/14 KSN poll showed Davis 6 atop Brownback.

Voters split on which issue is most important in the Governor’s contest: those who say “tax rates” are most important break by 26 points for Brownback. Those who say “education” is most important break by 43 points for Davis.

In the contest for United States Senator, Independent Greg Orman continues to make life difficult for both 3-term Republican Roberts and his Democratic challenger. Today, it’s Roberts 37%, Democrat Chad Taylor 32%, Orman at 20%, and Libertarian Randall Batson at 4%. These results are largely consistent with SurveyUSA’s most recent KSN poll, conducted before the 08/05/14 primary, which also showed Roberts 5 points atop Taylor. In its 3 looks at the 11/04/14 general election, SurveyUSA had Orman at 7% on 06/14/14, at 14% on 07/22/14, and at 20% today. Orman siphons votes across the board. He gets 20% of conservatives, 24% of moderates and 17% of liberals. Roberts holds just 62% of the Republican base. Taylor holds 74% of the Democratic base. 38% of independents, a plurality, vote for Orman, who, among Independents beats both Roberts and Taylor. Some comfort for Roberts: he leads in all 3 regions of the state, though he has less than 40% support in every Kansas corner. Roberts breaks 40% among those with a high-school education, but fails to break 40% among the more educated. Roberts fails to break 40% among any income group.

Voters say the economy is the most important issue in the Senate race. Among voters who choose the economy as most important, Davis leads 4:3. Among voters who say that Obamacare is most important, and among voters who say that Immigration is most important, Roberts leads 2:1.

In the contest for Secretary of State, incumbent Republican Kris Kobach and Democratic challenger Jean Schodorf are tied, 46% each. Kobach leads by 10 points among men. Schodorf leads by 9 points among women, a 19-point gender gap. Kobach holds 81% of the Republican base. Schodorf holds 89% of the Democratic base. Both independents and moderates break for the Democrat. Voters say that immigration is the most important issue in their vote for Secretary of State, and among voters who name immigration as most important, Kobach leads 2:1. Among voters who name voter registration as most important, Kobach leads narrowly. Only among voters who name campaign-finance reform as most important does Schodorf lead. The regional breakdowns are tight: Kobach and Schodorf are tied at 47% each in greater Kansas City KS. The Democrat leads by a nominal 3 points in greater Wichita. The Republican leads by 9 in greater Topeka.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 state of Kansas adults 08/20/14 through 08/23/14. Of the adults, 740 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 560 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In Taken-For-Granted FL Democratic Primary for Governor, The Outcome is All-But-Certain

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 68 days ago

Democrat Charlie Crist today defeats fellow Democrat Nan Rich 4:1 in a Democratic Primary for Governor of Florida, according to an exclusive WFLA-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Crist gets 76% today, Rich 19%. Crist is at or above 70% in every region of the state. The survey of 414 likely Democratic Primary voters was conducted 08/19/14 through 08/21/14. Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents were included.

With Libertarian Wyllie on the Ballot in Florida, Republican Scott Now Leads Democrat Crist by 3

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 72 days ago

In this 10th tracking poll for WFLA-TV in Tampa, SurveyUSA adds the name of Libertarian Adrian Wyllie to the “who would you vote for” question, and finds the results largely consistent with previous releases, where survey respondents could select an option for “some other candidate” to express support for Wyllie.

Today, it’s incumbent Republican Rick Scott 44%, Democratic challenger Charlie Crist 41%, Wyllie 4%. Wyllie appears to take ever-so-slightly more votes from Scott than from Crist, an analysis of the results reveals. That’s because in 8 out of the 9 previous WFLA-TV tracking polls, Scott has led among independent voters, but today, with Wyllie siphoning off 12% of the independents, Crist leads among independents 37% to 30%.

2 weeks ago, Scott led by 2 points, today by 3. Crist suffers from an apparent weakening of his support in Southeast Florida (which includes Miami and Fort Lauderdale). Previously, Crist had led in the Southeast by as many as 25 points, and most recently by 18 points, but today leads there by just 5. In Central FL, often a battleground, Scott today leads by 8. Crist today leads by 5 among voters under age 50; Scott today leads by 7 among voters age 50+. Scott leads by 3 among men and leads by 3 among women.

Scott holds 79% of the Republican base. Crist holds 76% of the Democratic base. Conservatives, as expected, break 8:1 for Scott. Liberals, as expected, break 8:1 for Crist. Moderates, a critical swing group, break for Crist 52% to 29%.

Looking ahead to the 2016 presidential election, Democrat Hillary Clinton keeps Florida’s critical 29 electoral college votes blue if she is opposed by a resurrected Mitt Romney. But Romney turns Florida red if he is opposed by Democrat Joe Biden. This is consistent with previous WFLA-TV polling, which shows that Clinton defeats each and every high-profile Republican in an election today, holding the state for the Democrats, but Biden loses to each and every high-profile Republican today. 270 electoral college votes are needed to win the White House; Florida alone accounts for 11% of the total needed.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents are included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 adults 08/15/14 through 08/18/14. Of the adults, 852 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 564 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. In this release, cell-phone respondents favor Crist by 11 points. Landline respondents favor Scott by 7 points. You must credit WFLA-TV if you air, cite or publish these results in whole or in part.

11 Weeks Till GA Votes are Counted, Republicans Positioned to ‘Run the Table’ in Top 6 Statewide Contests; Will Libertarians Force Runoffs?

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 73 days ago

2 months till early voting begins and 11 weeks until votes are counted, Georgia Republicans lead in races for US Senator, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General and School Superintendent, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WXIA-TV, the Gannett-owned station in Atlanta. In Georgia, a winning candidate needs 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff, which this election would be 12/02/14 for statewide contests and 01/06/15 for the US Senate contest.

In an election today for US Senator, to fill an open seat vacated by Saxby Chambliss, Republican David Perdue defeats Democrat Michelle Nunn 50% to 41%. (Michelle is Sam Nunn’s daughter.) Libertarian Amanda Swafford gets 3% today. 6% are undecided. Perdue’s lead comes entirely from men, where he leads by 19 points. Atlanta votes Democratic. Northwest GA votes 2:1 Republican. South and East GA votes 5:4 Republican. The contest has national ramifications; Republicans need to hold the seat to have a chance to capture control of the U.S. Senate in the next Congress.

In an election today for Governor, incumbent Republican Nathan Deal defeats Democratic challenger Jason Carter 48% to 39%. (Jason is the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter.) Libertarian Andrew Hunt gets 4% today. 8% are undecided. Deal holds 83% of the Republican base. Carter holds 82% of the Democratic base. Independents break sharply Republican. Moderates provide some but not presently enough support for Carter to catch Deal. Libertarian Hunt takes more votes from the Republican Deal than he does from the Democrat Carter.

In an election today for Lieutenant Governor, incumbent Republican Casey Cagle defeats Democratic challenger Connie Stokes, 52% to 36%. Cagle holds 90% of the Republican base.

In an election today for Secretary of State, incumbent Republican Brian Kemp defeats Democratic challenger Doreen Carter 53% to 36%. Carter trails by 9 points among women.

In an election today for Attorney General, incumbent Republican Sam Olens defeats Democratic challenger Greg Hecht, 49% to 36%. Hecht has a 5-point advantage among lower-income voters, but he is overpowered by Olens among middle-income and upper-income voters.

In an election today for State School Superintendent, Republican Richard Woods defeats Democrat Valarie Wilson 51% to 39%. Among voters who support the “Common Core” school standards, the Democrat Wilson leads 2:1. Among those who oppose Common Core, the Republican Woods leads 6:1.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,100 state of Georgia adults 08/14/14 through 08/17/14. Of the adults, 953 were registered to vote. Of those registered to vote, 560 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone, or other portable device.

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