Now What? In Survey Conducted During Jewish New Year Holy Week, Crist 6 Points Atop Scott, With The Expected Caveats
Any outcome is possible in the 2014 Florida Governor’s contest, as this week’s tracking survey from WFLA-TV illustrates. Today, it’s Democrat Charlie Crist 46%, Republican Rick Scott 40%. The research, by SurveyUSA, was conducted during a holy week for Jewish residents, which altered school schedules in some parts of the state and resulted in others taking long weekends away from home. This may correlate with the 7-point swing to the Democrat that SurveyUSA finds from its poll last week, which showed Scott 1 point ahead of Crist.
Today’s release shows Libertarian Adrian Wyllie polling at 8%, taking slightly more votes from Scott than from Crist. Wyllie’s support has doubled in the past 6 weeks. 6% of likely voters today have not made up their mind. The week-on-week volatility is typified in support among women, which breaks sharply Democratic in the past 7 days, and in Southeast Florida, where Crist reaches 52% support this week, his highest level since SurveyUSA added Wyllie to WFLA-TV’s tracking poll in Mid-August, and a dramatic improvement compared to 2 weeks ago when Crist polled at 41% in SE FL.
The volatility and abnormal pattern of who is home and who is not home will continue next week, when normal SurveyUSA polling operations are confounded by Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement. Some schools will close, and some may use the long weekend to travel, and be away from their home telephones, altering for yet another week the pattern of who is and who is not reachable by pollsters.
Support for Amendment 2, which would legalize medical marijuana, ever, ever-so-slightly declines, from 56% mid-month to 53% last week to 52% today. Opposition to Amendment 2 creeps imperceptibly up, from 31% to 32% to today 33%. If the 14% of likely voters who tell SurveyUSA they are undecided on Amendment 2 do not vote, the measure, which requires 60% passage to become law, fails by a handful of votes.
Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 750 state of Florida adults Saturday 09/26/14 through Monday 09/29/14. (Interviews were conducted after the religious observance of Rosh Hashanah ended at sundown on Friday 09/26/14). Of the adults interviewed, 673 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 584 respondents were likely to vote on or before the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (76% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (24% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. You must credit WFLA-TV, of Tampa FL, if you air, cite, or publish these results in whole or part.