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In Florida, Scott and Crist Now Nose-to-Nose in WFLA-TV Tracking Poll

SurveyUSA Operations - 122 days ago

As summer begins, Florida’s even-steven race for Governor glows white hot, with this latest release of the WFLA-TV tracking poll showing incumbent Republican Rick Scott at 42%, Democratic challenger Charlie Crist at 41%. The research, conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV by SurveyUSA, is more favorable to Scott than data released 06/10/14, which showed Crist leading Scott by 4 points.

Some of the ground that Scott made up between 06/10/14 and today is among seniors, where Crist had recently drawn even with Scott, but today Crist falls to 13 points behind. Scott also makes up ground among the most educated voters, where 2 weeks ago Crist led by 11 and now leads by 3. Today’s release shows a 25-point Gender Gap: Scott leads by 13 points among men; Crist leads by 12 points among women. Cubans vote Republican. Non-Cuban Hispanics vote Democratic. Whites vote Republican. Blacks vote Democratic. Independents break 4:3 Republican. Moderates break 2:1 Democratic.

Looking ahead to the 2016 Presidential election, SurveyUSA wheels Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio against 2 possible Democratic nominees: Hillary Clinton today defeats Rubio by 14 points in a hypothetical match-up. Rubio today defeats Joe Biden by 3 points in a hypothetical match-up. Formidably: Clinton gets 60% of the female vote if she is the Democratic nominee. By contrast, Biden gets 47% of the female vote if he is the Democratic nominee.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 950 state of Florida adults 06/20/14 through 06/23/14. Of the adults, 834 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 541 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election, and were asked the Crist-Scott questions. The 2016 hypotheticals were asked of all 834 registered voters. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone or other electronic device.

Absence Does Not Make the KS-04 Heart Grow Fonder — Pompeo With Early Lead on Tiahrt in GOP Primary Battle

SurveyUSA Operations - 127 days ago

6 weeks to the Republican Primary in Kansas’ 4th Congressional District, incumbent Republican Mike Pompeo leads his newly announced primary challenger Todd Tiahrt, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSN-TV in Wichita.

Today it’s Pompeo 51%, Tiahrt 34%. Tiahrt held the seat in this district until he resigned to run for the US Senate in 2010. Pompeo seeks his 3rd term. Tiahrt wants his seat back. The district is heavily Republican. The winner of the 08/05/14 primary is likely to win the general election 11/04/14.

At this hour, Pompeo is well positioned to hold the seat. He runs particularly strong among conservatives, where he leads by 27 points. Tiahrt does much better among moderates, where he trails Pompeo by only 3 points, but alas, he still trails. Pompeo leads by 19 points among men, and by 14 points among women. Pompeo runs strong among seniors, where he leads by 22 points. Tiahrt keeps it closer in the younger age groups, but still trails there by 14 to 15 points. Tiahrt does comparatively well among lower-income likely Republican primary voters, where Tiahrt trails by 6. But Pompeo overwhelms among the more affluent, where he leads by 23 points.

Voters tell SurveyUSA that they are most focused on jobs in casting their vote. Among voters focused on jobs, Pompeo leads Tiahrt by 11 points. By comparison, among voters who say that immigration is the most important issue, Pompeo leads Tiahrt by 39 points.

Primary elections can be volatile, and these results may change as both candidates increasingly define themselves and their opponents as Primary Day approaches. On the other hand, Tiahrt is a known commodity in the district, and is not a typical unknown challenger running against a sitting incumbent.

Interviews, including cell-phone respondents, conducted 100% by telephone: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 registered voters from Kansas’ 4th Congressional District 06/16/14 through 06/18/14, using Registration Based Sample (RBS), which is also known as Voter List Sample, purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. To qualify for inclusion, a household needed to have voted in at least one previous Congressional primary. Of the 950 registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 534 were likely to vote in the 08/05/14 Primary. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (also known as: cell-phone respondents), were called on their cell phones, by live operators, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent’s cooperation, conducted the interview, and remained on the line until the completion of the interview. You must credit KSN-TV if you cite these results.

A Brand Map That Shows How SurveyUSA Is Positioned Compared to Other Market Research Firms

SurveyUSA Operations - 130 days ago

In CA-52, Incumbent Democrat Peters Swimming Upstream in Fight For 2nd Term; Republican Challenger DeMaio on Top

SurveyUSA Operations - 130 days ago

In an election for U.S. House of Representatives from California’s 52nd Congressional District today, 06/13/14, Republican challenger Scott DeMaio has a narrow advantage over 1st-term incumbent Democrat Scott Peters, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for the Union Tribune newspaper and KGTV-TV 10 News in San Diego.

DeMaio 51%, Peters 44%. That’s the headline at this hour, 6 months till votes are counted, pointing to a possible Republican takeaway of this congressional seat. DeMaio holds 82% of the Republican base, and gets 88% support from conservatives. Peters holds 85% of the Democratic base, holds 87% of the liberal vote, and edges DeMaio among moderates 54% to 43%. DeMaio leads by 17 points among men, trails by 2 points among women, a 19-point Gender Gap. DeMaio leads decisively among the less educated and less affluent voters. Peters draws even among the most educated and most affluent voters. Union voters break heavily for Peters, non-union voters break for DeMaio. Voters split when asked which of the 2 candidates is more trustworthy. 45% say DeMaio, 41% say Peters.

DeMaio and Peters emerge from a 06/03/14 “Top-2″ primary in which DeMaio finished behind Peters, in large part because DeMaio and other Republicans split the Republican vote. Today, those voters who backed Republican Kirk Jorgensen in the primary break 5:1 for DeMaio. Those voters who in 2012 backed Republican Brian Bilbray in CA-52, today back DeMaio 11:1. Those voters who in 2012 backed Democrat Peters, stick today with Peters 11:1.

The results of today’s poll are similar to a SurveyUSA poll released one year ago, 06/13/13, which showed DeMaio atop Peters 48% to 39%. That poll was of registered voters; today’s poll is of likely voters, so the two are not precisely apples-to-apples. Nevertheless, the broad themes remain consistent.

Research conducted 100% by telephone, using live operators to contact cell-phone respondents: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 registered voters from California’s 52nd Congressional District using Registration Based Sample (RBS, aka: Voter List sample) from Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 554 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a landline (home) telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (aka: cell-phone respondents) were interviewed on their cell phone by live operators who hand-dialed the cell phones, qualified the respondent, interviewed the respondent and remained on the line until the completion of the survey.

In MN, GOP Gov Primary is White Hot 2 Months Out; Winner Ready to Tear Into Incumbent Democrat Dayton; Franken Can’t Coast Either

SurveyUSA Operations - 130 days ago

2 months till votes are counted in the Republican Primary for Minnesota Governor, 4 candidates battle for the nomination, with the top 2 tied, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV. Today, Kurt Zellers and Jeff Johnson are even at 23%. They are followed by Marty Seifert at 14% and Scott Honour at 9%.

Regardless of which 1 of the 4 gets the nomination, DFL incumbent Mark Dayton may have a fight on his hands. The same is true of Al Franken in the US Senate contest … but let’s focus on the Governor’s race first.

In the Gubernatorial primary, Zellers narrowly outdraws Johnson among Republicans. Johnson narrowly outdraws Zellers among Independents. Conservatives break ever-so-slightly for Zellers; moderates break ever-so-slightly for Johnson. Johnson runs strong in Southern MN, Zellers runs strong in NE MN. The 2 split in the Twin Cities. Zellers’ support is younger. Johnson’s support is older. Johnson uniquely appeals to middle-income voters.

In hypothetical November match-ups that wheel the 4 Republicans against Dayton, Dayton leads in every case. But never with more than 47% of the vote. Today it’s:

Dayton 46%, Johnson 40%. Dayton by 6.
Dayton 46%, Zellers 39%. Dayton by 7.
Dayton 46%, Seifert 38%. Dayton by 8.
Dayton 47%, Honour 37%. Dayton by 10.

In the Republican Primary for US Senate, Mike McFadden is at 44%, Jim Abeler is at 16%. 40% choose some other candidate, or are undecided. The winner will face Franken 11/04/14.

In hypothetical November match-ups for US Senator, Franken like Dayton may have his hands full. Today it’s:

Franken 48%, McFadden 42%. Franken by 6.
Franken 48%, Abeler 39%. Franken by 9.

Independence Party candidate Kevin Terrell is a factor, at 4% to 6% of the vote … and 10% to 12% of the vote among Independents. Franken holds 90% of the DFL base against both McFadden and Abeler. But Abeler is less palatable to MN Independents.

68% of MN voters disapprove of a new $77 million building to provide new offices for the Minnesota Senate. 18% approve.

MN adults by 5:4 say that a light-rail system that will connect Minneapolis and St Paul is not worth the $957 million in taxes it cost to build. 51% say the transit connecting Minneapolis to St Paul is not worth the money; 40% say it is worth the cost. Of those who live in the counties the light rail serves, 6% say they will use transit regularly, 28% say they will use it occasionally, 65% they will almost never use light rail.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,200 state of Minnesota adults 06/05/14 through 06/09/14. Of the adults, 2,032 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 1,017 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election, 404 were determined to be likely to vote in the 08/12/14 primary election. Of the adults, 1,177 live in Greater Minneapolis and were asked how often they will ride light rail. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In Oregon, 6 Months to Election Day, Incumbent Democrats Kitzhaber and Merkley Well Positioned for Re-Election

SurveyUSA Operations - 135 days ago

In an election for Governor of Oregon today, 06/10/14, six months till votes are counted, incumbent Democrat John Kitzhaber leads Republican challenger Dennis Richardson by 13 points, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KATU-TV in Portland.

Today, it’s Kitzhaber 48%, Richardson 35%. Kitzhaber leads by 21 points in Greater Portland. Richardson ties Kitzhaber in the rest of the state. Kitzhaber is backed by women, among whom he leads by 20 points, and by the youngest voters, among whom he leads by 22. Kitzhaber holds 76% of the Democratic base, Richardson holds 78% of the Republican base. Independents break narrowly for the incumbent Democrat. Those with a high-school education vote for Richardson, but more educated voters back Kitzhaber.

Voters who tell SurveyUSA that the failure of Cover Oregon has a major impact on their vote back Richardson 3:1. Those who say the failure of Cover Oregon is not a factor in how they vote back Kitzhaber 11:1.

In an election today for United States Senator from Oregon, incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley leads Republican Monica Wehby, 50% to 32%. Wehby is backed by 71% of Republicans and 67% of conservatives. But Merkley is at or above 50% among women, voters age 50+, among Democrats, moderates and liberals, the less affluent and the most educated. Merkley leads by 26 points in Greater Portland. Wehby closes to with 3 points in the rest of Oregon, but still trails there 39% to 36%.

Three separate initiatives are on the ballot having to do with the recreational use of marijuana. SurveyUSA did not ask likely voters to differentiate among the 3 ballot measures, but did ask respondents whether they support or oppose allowing adults in Oregon to use, possess and grown marijuana for their personal use, while allowing the state to regulate and tax marijuana. 51% support making the personal use of marijuana legal, 41% oppose. There is no regional difference on this question. But there is an enormous age difference: young voters back the decriminalization of marijuana by 48 points. Seniors oppose legalization by 24 points. Democrats support. Republicans oppose.

Voters back Initiative 27, which would require that genetically engineered food be labeled. 51% back Initiative 27; 14% oppose. 35% are undecided, which means there is plenty of wiggle room in these numbers. That said, the measure is favored to pass.

More controversially, voters also back Initiative 10, the Oregon Castle-Doctrine Act, which would expand the laws permitting the defensive use of deadly force and eliminate liability in the case of a trespasser’s injury or death. 47% say Yes on 10, 14% say No. It’s still early going, and 38% are undecided, but at this hour, Democrats support Initiative 10 by 35% to 23%. Republicans support 12:1. Men support 10 by 45 points. Women support 10 by 20 points.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 state of Oregon adults 06/05/14 through 06/09/14. Of the adults, 810 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 560 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone, or other electronic device.

Democrat Crist Back on Top in Florida See-Saw; Does It Have to Do With His Intention to Visit Cuba?

SurveyUSA Operations - 136 days ago

In an election for Governor of Florida today, 06/10/14, Democrat Charlie Crist is newly invigorated, according to the latest SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Today it’s Crist 44%, Republican Rick Scott 40%. Compared to the most recent SurveyUSA poll, released 05/23/14, Crist is up 4 points, Scott is down 2 points. Then, Scott led by 2 points. Today, Crist leads by 4.

This SurveyUSA poll is the first since Crist announced that he may visit Cuba this summer. When likely November voters are asked whether a trip to Cuba makes it more or less likely that a voter would support that candidate, we find a “wash”:

12% say it makes them more likely to vote for a candidate who visits Cuba.
12% say it makes them less likely to vote for a candidate who visits Cuba.
73% say it makes no difference.

But, that apparent “wash” may mask underlying volatility. Among Cubans – and acknowledging that this is a small sample – Scott’s support has dropped to 27%, the lowest recorded in 5 SurveyUSA tracking polls. Crist is at 46% among Cubans, up from the most recent SurveyUSA poll, but consistent with where Crist was in April. In Southeast Florida (home to Miami and Fort Lauderdale), Scott’s support has dropped to 27%, a new low. Crist’s 25-point lead in Southeast FL is his largest in 5 tracking polls. Among the most educated voters, Scott’s support has dropped to 37%, the lowest it has been in 5 polls. Among the most affluent voters, Crist closes to within 3 points of Scott, 48% to 45%. This is the closest Crist has drawn to Scott in this typically Republican sub-population.

Consistent with the overall findings, those who say a Cuba trip makes them more likely to support a candidate back Crist 6:1. Those who say a Cuba trip makes them less likely to support a candidate back Scott by 3:1.

Switching gears: In a hypothetical election for President of the United States in Florida today, 06/10/14, 30 months till votes would be counted, Hillary Clinton defeats Jeb Bush 47% to 41%. Bush defeats Joe Biden 47% to 38%. Looking at how women vote tells a large part of the story. In a Clinton-Bush match-up, Clinton carries women by 15 points. In a Biden-Bush match-up, Bush carries women, though narrowly, 45% to 43%.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 950 state of Florida adults 06/05/14 through 06/10/14. Of the adults, 850 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 556 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election, and were asked the Crist-Scott questions. The 2016 hypotheticals were asked of all 850 registered voters. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (75% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (25% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone or other electronic device.

Kingston Atop Perdue in GOP Runoff for US Senate and Right to Face Nunn in November; Deal Maintains Lead Over Carter for Governor

SurveyUSA Operations - 140 days ago

6 weeks to the 07/22/14 Georgia Republican Primary, Jack Kingston is 11 points ahead of fellow Republican David Perdue in the battle for the Republican nomination, and the right to face Democrat Michelle Nunn in the 11/04/14 general election, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WXIA-TV, the Gannett owned station in Atlanta.

Today it’s Kingston 52%, Perdue 41%. Encouraging for Perdue is that among seniors, who are the most reliable voters, the contest is tied, 47% to 47%. Encouraging for Kingston is that he is above 50% among men, whites, independents, conservatives, middle and upper income voters, more educated voters, and in all 3 regions of Georgia. In greater Atlanta, Kingston leads by 10, in South Georgia and Eastern Georgia, Kingston leads by 18, and in Northwest Georgia, Kingston leads by 6.

In hypothetical head-to-head November match-ups against Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn, today, 5 months to election day, Kingston defeats Nunn by 6 points and Perdue defeats Nunn by 5 points. The race is for Republican Saxby Chambliss’ seat. Early though it is: the seat at this hour is a Republican “hold,” not a Democratic “takeaway.”

In an election today for Governor of Georgia, Republican Nathan Deal tops Democrat Jason Carter 44% to 38%. This 6-point lead is effectively unchanged from 2 previous SurveyUSA tracking polls, which on 04/28/14 showed Deal 4 points ahead of Carter, and on 04/13/14 showed Deal 6 points ahead of Carter. The 17-point Gender Gap continues to be striking: Deal leads by 13 points among men; Carter leads by 4 points among women. Republican Deal leads by 32 points among white voters. Carter leads by 53 points among black voters. As always in Georgia, the more women and the more African Americans who turn out, the better the Democratic candidate will do.

About: Cell-phone and home-phone respondents were included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 2,200 GA adults 06/03/14 through 06/05/14. Of the adults, 1,854 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 999 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election, 419 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 07/22/14 Republican Runoff. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone, or other electronic device.

No Geography Too Small

SurveyUSA Operations - 143 days ago

Coming Out Of The Symbolic ‘Start-of-Summer’ Memorial Day Weekend, FL Governor’s Teeter-Totter Tips Toward Republican Scott

SurveyUSA Operations - 150 days ago

 

Is it an early indicator of things to come? Or is it just statistical noise? For the first time, the WFLA-TV poll that is tracking the Florida Governor’s contest shows Republican Rick Scott in front — Scott at 42%, Democrat Charlie Crist at 40%, according to SurveyUSA data gathered as voters get ready for the Memorial Day weekend. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 10 days ago, Scott is up 1 point, Crist is down 4 points, a 5-point shift to the right.

 

Here is where there is movement: in Central Florida, which includes 19 counties surrounding Orlando, Scott has gained ground in each of 4 tracking polls and today leads there 47% to 34%. You can see it here. Among moderates, Crist had a 25-point advantage 10 days ago, now a 12-point advantage. You can see it here. Among males, Crist has been steadily losing ground, and now trails by 14 points; the Gender Gap is today 26 points. Crist’s support is down among whites, down among blacks. Among Cubans, Scott now leads 2:1.

 

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 state of Florida adults 05/20/14 through 05/22/14. Of the adults, 842 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 531 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on a home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

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