5 Weeks Till Fresno Mayoral Primary, Perea and Brand Positioned to Advance to General Election Runoff

SurveyUSA Operations - 04/25/16 10:00 PM

Henry R. Perea leads the 5-candidate open-primary contest for Mayor of the city of Fresno CA, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KFSN-TV. But if Perea does not receive a majority of the vote on 06/07/16 (50% plus 1 vote), the top 2 finishers will advance to an 11/08/16 runoff.

At this hour, it’s Perea 36%, Lee Brand 24%, H Spees 13%, Doug Vagim 6%, and Richard Renteria 3%. 18% of likely primary voters are undecided, which is material to the primary finish. If the 18% of voters who are undecided today break proportionally across all 5 candidates, Perea would finish with 44% of the vote — short of a majority. Perea would need to receive 3 out of every 4 undecided votes to win the primary outright and avoid a runoff.

Perea is backed by 6 of 10 Latino voters. Perea and Brand split the white vote, each candidate with 29%. Brand runs strong among the oldest voters, where he creeps to within 5 points of Perea. The older the 06/07/16 primary electorate is, the better Brand will perform. The younger the primary electorate, the better Perea will perform.

Perea and Brand run almost even among those likely Fresno voters who say the city is well managed. Among voters who say the city is not well managed, Perea leads by 17 points. Among voters who say crime is the most important issue facing the city, Perea and Brand are tied. Perea leads in single digits among voters who say that gangs or economic development are the most important city issues. Perea leads in double digits among voters who say that homelessness is the city’s most important issue.

Brand leads Spees 39% to 23% among voters who say they are strong Republicans. Brand leads Spees 43% to 17% among voters who say they are Republicans. Perea leads Spees 71% to 4% among strong Democrats. Perea leads Spees 62% to 10% among Democrats. Moderates and independents choose Perea.

Even if Brand were to overtake Perea in the primary, the same 2 candidates would advance to the general election, though Brand would have more of a tailwind. To overtake Perea, Brand needs wealthy Freno voters — among whom he narrowly leads — to be a larger percentage of the electorate than the 32% SurveyUSA herein forecasts, and he needs Republicans (and strong Republicans) to be more than the 41% of the electorate that SurveyUSA forecasts here.

Compared to a SurveyUSA KFSN-TV poll conducted 8 weeks ago, before Vagim and Renteria entered the race, Perea had led Brand by 19 points. Today, Perea leads Brand by 12 points. Vagim and Renteria combine for 9% of the vote.

The city of Fresno Mayoral Primary will coincide with the state of California presidential primary, also to be held on 06/07/16. If the Republican nomination fight has not been settled by that date, and if the Democratic nomination fight has been settled by that date, Republicans may vote in larger numbers than Democrats in the statewide primary. It is unclear to what extent this would affect the Fresno Mayoral Primary, but these survey results suggest that such a scenario would favor Brand. At the same time, there is an open primary for United States Senator from California on 06/07/16, and turnout for that statewide primary may also be a tail that wags the city of Fresno dog.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 city of Fresno registered voters using voter-list sample (also known as “RBS” sample) from Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 571 were likely to vote in the 06/07/16 open, non-partisan primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (87% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (13% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Sitting Fresno mayor Ashley Swearengin is term limited. Swearengin won election in 2008 by defeating Henry R. Perea’s son, Henry T. Perea.

NC Voters Continue to Wrestle With HB2 Fallout: Majority in State Now Opposes New ‘Bathroom’ Law in General, But Supports Specific Birth-Gender Provision; Ongoing Economic Toll Impacts 2016 Gov Race, Where Democrat Cooper Now Leads GOP Incumbent McCrory

SurveyUSA Operations - 04/12/16 06:23 PM

North Carolina voters are conflicted about the state’s new “bathroom” law, HB2, as they wrestle with both the law’s specific provisions but also the law’s ongoing cultural and economic fallout, according to brand new opinion research conducted exclusively for WRAL-TV in Raleigh.

Today, 38% support the new law, 50% oppose. Support for the law is greatest among strong Republicans, 62%; among very conservative voters, 61%; and among evangelicals, 53%. Opposition to HB2 is greatest among strong Democrats, 72%; very liberal voters, 84%; liberals, 80%; people who almost never attend religious services, 62%; and among voters who say they know someone who is transgender, 61%. A majority opposes HB2 in greater Charlotte and greater Greensboro, a plurality opposes HB2 in greater Raleigh and in Southern and Coastal NC.

But matters are not so simple:

56% of North Carolinians agree with the provision of the law (46% strongly agree) that requires transgender individuals to use the bathroom of their birth, and not the bathroom of their choosing. 56% say that allowing a transgender individual to use the public restroom of their choice does pose a security risk for women and children. Those provisions notwithstanding, a majority in NC (52%) say gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender individuals should be protected against discrimination, versus 36% who say LGBT individuals should not be protected. The younger you are, the more likely you are to say LGBT individuals should be protected by law against discrimination. Those who attend church regularly are divided on the issue, 44% in favor, 45% against.

61% of Tar Heel voters say HB2 has hurt North Carolina’s image nationally. Just 18% say HB2 has helped the state’s image. The same number, 61%, say that HB2 has hurt North Carolina’s ability to attract and keep businesses. Just 11% say the law has helped the state attract and keep businesses, 19% say it has had no impact. At this hour, 37% of voters say the law should be repealed in its entirety, 20% say most of the law should repealed but the bathroom provision should remain in place, 19% say other changes are needed and the smallest group, 18%, say the law should be left in place “as is.”

HB2 may be also taking a toll on incumbent Republican Governor Pat McCrory, who signed HB2 into law 3 weeks ago, and who now finds himself trailing Democratic challenger Roy Cooper, the state’s attorney general, 43% to 47% among likely 11/08/16 voters. McCrory has a Minus 4 Net Job Approval Rating today: 43% of voters approve of the job he is doing as Governor, 47% disapprove. Cooper has a Plus 28 Net Job Approval Rating today: 53% of voters approve of the job Cooper is doing as Attorney General, 25% disapprove. Compared to a 03/08/16 SurveyUSA WRAL-TV poll, McCrory’s job approval is largely unchanged, but Cooper has gone from Plus 18 five weeks ago to Plus 28 today.

McCrory carries white voters in an election today, 04/12/16. Cooper’s lead comes from African American voters, who back him 8:1. Cooper leads by 10 points in greater Raleigh and by 11 points in greater Greensboro. The contest is effectively even in greater Charlotte and in Southern and Coastal NC. Support for HB2 is highly correlated with the vote for Governor. Of those who approve of HB2, 74% vote for McCrory. Of those who disapprove of HB2, 69% vote for Cooper.

About this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 state of North Carolina adults 04/08/16 through 04/11/16. Of the adults, 779 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 701 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election for Governor. During the course of the field period for this survey, the singer Bruce Springsteen announced that he was canceling a 04/10/16 concert in NC because of HB2. Approximately 1/3 of interviews were completed before this announcement, 2/3 after. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. 86% of North Carolinians say they know someone who is gay or lesbian. 25% say they know someone who is transgender. 8% of adult survey respondents indicate they are gay, lesbian, bisexual or transgender. 20% of likely gubernatorial voters are black in today’s results. If African Americans comprise more than 20% of the electorate on 11/08/16, the Democrat Cooper will outperform these numbers. If blacks comprise less than 20% of the electorate, the contest will be closer than it is shown herein.

NC Conflicted Over Bathroom Brouhaha: By 2:1, Voters Worry Tar Heel State Will Lose Business And Be Respected Less, But By 5:4, Voters Want State Ordinance to Stay in Effect; GOP Gov McCrory Helped As Much As He’s Hurt By Spotlight

SurveyUSA Operations - 04/04/16 09:39 PM

The emotional and spiritual tug-of-war in North Carolina over just how to treat fairly those who are transgender is on full display in this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for Time Warner Cable News North Carolina. Voters by 5:4 say the new state law that requires individuals to use the public restroom of their birth gender as opposed to their chosen gender is a good idea. But by 2:1, voters say the state will be harmed because of it.

Let’s take it a step at a time:

51% of North Carolinians think the new state law, which overwrites the Charlotte Bathroom Ordinance, is a good idea. 40% say the new state law is a bad idea. Republicans, conservatives, evangelicals, pro-life voters and regular church goers are more likely to like the new state law. Democrats, liberals, pro-choice voters and those who almost never attend religious services are more likely to think the state law is a bad idea. Voters in all 4 regions of the state support the state law — especially so in greater Greensboro.

40% say that transgender individuals should be able to choose which public bathroom to use (the exact same number as who oppose the new state law); 51% say transgender individuals should not be able to choose which public restroom to use (the exact same number as who support the new law).

Republican Governor Pat McCrory, who is running for re-election in 2016 and who signed the state ordinance into law, has a Minus 2 Net Job Approval. 44% of voters approve of the job that McCrory is doing, 46% disapprove. 35% say that McCrory’s handling of the bathroom law makes them have a more positive view of the Governor, 39% say McCrory’s handling of the bathroom law makes them have a more negative view of the Governor. 24% say McCrory’s handling of the issue makes no difference. 33% say they are now more likely to vote to re-elect McCrory as Governor; 35% say they are less likely to vote to re-elect McCrory as Governor; 26% say the bathroom will not influence how they vote in the 11/08/16 general election. Should, hypothetically, McCrory lose his re-election battle by 1 percentage point or less, analysts can point to this very small negative bathroom backlash as a possible reason why. Should McCrory win, or should McCrory lose by more than 1 percentage point, the bathroom law will likely not be the only reason why.

21% say the new state law will make it easier for North Carolina businesses to attract talent, keep customers and win contracts, but twice as many, 45%, say the new state law will have a negative effect on NC businesses.

23% say North Carolina’s overall image will be helped by the new state law, but twice as many, 46%, say the state’s overall image will be harmed by the new state law. The concern is shared by both men and women, voters in every age group, by whites and minorities, by rich and poor, and in every region of the state.

About: 600 state of North Carolina adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 04/01/16 through 04/03/16. Of the adults, 540 were registered to vote and were asked the questions included in this survey. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (70% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (30% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.


In CA, 47% of Registered Voters and 15% of Likely GOP Primary Voters Have ‘Extremely Negative’ View of Trump; Still He Leads Cruz Narrowly; Clinton Atop Sanders in Democrat Primary; Harris & Sanchez Likely To Advance for Boxer’s Seat; CA’s Vital 55 Electoral Votes Stay Blue in 2016

SurveyUSA Operations - 04/04/16 08:00 PM

Extremely unscripted Donald Trump is viewed extremely unfavorably by half of California’s registered voters and by 15% of Republicans most likely to vote in the state’s 06/07/16 GOP Primary, according to research just completed by SurveyUSA for television stations KABC in Los Angeles, KPIX in San Francisco, KGTV in San Diego, and KFSN in Fresno. 71% of CA women and 75% of CA Latinos view Trump negatively today. But even with this anchor tied to his foot, Trump at this hour continues to lead Ted Cruz, though narrowly, among likely Republican primary voters.

Today, it’s Trump 40%, Cruz 32%, John Kasich 17%. Trump still leads among women, though his comments about women, and his staff’s treatment of women, were in the news during the field period for this survey. Among moderates, Kasich and Trump run effectively even in the GOP Primary, 35% for Trump to 34% for Kasich, with Cruz at 10%. Among those who say they are “somewhat conservative,” Cruz leads Trump 44% to 38%. But among those who are “very conservative,” Trump leads Cruz 45% to 38%. Among primary voters with an “extremely positive” view of Trump, Trump defeats Cruz 8:1. Among those who are “neutral” on Trump, Cruz leads Trump 4:3. And among those who have an “extremely negative” view of Trump, Cruz defeats Trump 10:1. The contest is fluid; much could change between now and 06/07/16. To win all 172 of California’s delegates to the Republican National Convention, Trump, Cruz, or Kasich would need to carry every one of CA’s 53 Congressional Districts.

In the Democratic presidential primary today, it’s Hillary Clinton 53%, Bernie Sanders 39%. Clinton wins the white vote by 6 points, 48% to 42%, and wins the African American vote 3:1. Sanders edges Clinton among single Democratic primary voters; Clinton leads decisively among married voters.

In the open, non-partisan, “Top 2″ primary for United States Senator, to fill the seat that will become open when Democrat Barbara Boxer retires at year-end, Democrat Kamala Harris, the Attorney General of the State of California, and Democrat Loretta Sanchez, a Congresswoman from California’s 46th Congressional District, top 3 other challengers and are likely to advance to the 11/08/16 general election. Republican Phil Wyman and Republican Tom Del Beccaro today tie for 3rd place at 8%, and Republican Duf Sundheim trails at 5%. Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they “always” vote in “every” California primary, and who therefore are the most reliable voters, Harris leads Sanchez today by 11 points, 30% to 19%. A smaller turnout might increase the size of Harris’ primary margin and a larger turnout might narrow the gap between the Top 2 primary finishers, but in any turnout scenario, at this hour, 2 Democrats advance to the general, and Boxer’s seat stays Blue.

In hypothetical November head-to-head presidential match-ups today:

Hillary Clinton defeats Donald Trump by 34 points, 60% to 26%.
Hillary Clinton defeats Ted Cruz by 25 points, 57% to 32%.
Hillary Clinton defeats John Kasich 23 points, 56% to 33%.

Bernie Sanders defeats Donald Trump by 39 points, 63% to 24%.
Bernie Sanders defeats Ted Cruz by 35 points, 61% to 26%.
Bernie Sanders defeats John Kasich by 29 points, 57% to 28%.

Registered voters from all parties were asked, regardless for whom they may vote, which candidate for President would they want sitting in the Oval Office if there were a major terrorist attack on the United States today: 37% say Clinton, 21% say Sanders, 15% say Trump, 9% say Cruz, 5% say Kasich.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,400 state of California adults 03/30/16 through 04/03/16. Of the adults, 1,991 were registered to vote in the state of California. Of the CA registered voters, 356 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 Republican Presidential primary, 767 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 Democratic Presidential primary, 1,269 were determined to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 open, non-partisan U.S. Senate primary, and 1,507 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (58% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (42% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Barack Obama carried CA by 24 points in 2008 and by 23 points in 2012.

In City of Portland, Oregon: Ted Wheeler Is Overwhelming Favorite to Win Mayoral Primary; But Will He Avoid an 11/08/16 Runoff?

SurveyUSA Operations - 04/01/16 07:05 PM

4 weeks till voting begins in the open contest for Mayor of Portland, Oregon State Treasurer Ted Wheeler is an overwhelming favorite to win the city’s 05/17/16 mail-in non-partisan primary, according to newly completed SurveyUSA research conducted exclusively for KATU-TV. But there is drama as to whether Wheeler will get more than 50% of the votes cast, which is what he would need to avoid a runoff election with the 2nd-place finisher. Incumbent Charlie Hales is not seeking re-election.

Here are the 15 candidates for Portland Mayor, in order of finish (this is not the order the names were read to respondents):

Ted Wheeler = 38%.
Jules Bailey = 8%.
David Ackerman = 4%
Patty Burkett = 4%.
Bruce Broussard = 3%.
Deborah Harris = 2%
Sean Davis = 2%.
Sarah Iannarone = 2%.
Lew Humble = 2%.
Eric Alexander Calhoun = 1%.
Bim Ditson = 1%.
David Schor = 1%.
Steven J Entwisle Sr = 0%
Trevor Manning = 0%.
Jessie Sponberg = 0%.
Undecided = 31%.

Wheeler dominates among Republicans, Democrats and Independents, among conservatives, moderates and liberals, among men and women. Wheeler runs away with the contest among city of Portland Hillary Clinton supporters, Bernie Sanders supporters, Donald Trump supporters, Ted Cruz supporters and John Kasich supporters. Wheeler leads overwhelmingly among voters who say the most important issue in the campaign is affordable housing, among those who say the most important issue is homelessness, among those who say the most important issue is taxes, and among those who say the most important issue is traffic.

If Wheeler receives more than 50% of the vote in the Primary, he wins. Even with 14 other candidates on the ballot, this is possible given that 31% of the likely voters interviewed by SurveyUSA are undecided at this hour. If undecided voters break proportionately across all candidates, Wheeler will approach the cutoff. If undecided voters break for other candidates and not for Wheeler, he will fall short. The fierce battle in Portland will be for 2nd place, in the event of a runoff.

Also on the primary ballot is Measure #26-173, the Temporary Motor Vehicle Fuel Tax for Street Repair, which would create a 4-year 10-cent a gallon fuel tax. At this hour, voters are divided: approximately 1/3 support the measure, 1/3 oppose the measure and 1/3 are not sure how they will vote on the measure. Support is strongest among the youngest voters and among the most liberal voters. Opposition to ballot measures typically increases as Election Day approaches (having nothing to do with Oregon, the city of Portland or with this specific measure). Every vote will be needed for Measure #26-173 to pass.

About SurveyUSA interviewed 700 city of Portland adults 03/28/16 through 04/01/16. Of the adults 630 were registered to vote. Of the registered, SurveyUSA identified 576 who were likely to vote in the Mayoral primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone, or other electronic device.

In Michigan, Kasich Runs Strongest of 3 GOP Finalists, But Sanders Beats All Comers; Baselines Established for Possible Ryan or Romney Entries

SurveyUSA Operations - 03/25/16 07:44 AM

In hypothetical head-to-head matchups in a general election held “today,” Republican John Kasich runs the strongest of any of the 3 remaining GOP candidates against Democrat Hillary Clinton, but Bernie Sanders outperforms Hillary Clinton and defeats all comers, according to SurveyUSA’s latest polling. Possible monkey-wrench candidates Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney are also paired.

Michigan has potentially great significance in 2016 given bluster from Donald Trump that he will flip the state’s 16 electoral college votes from Blue to Red. In 2008, Barack Obama carried Michigan by 16 points over John McCain. In 2012, Obama carried Michigan by 9 points over Mitt Romney, whose family has deep Michigan ties. Michigan last voted for a Republican for President in 1988, when George H.W. Bush defeated Michael Dukakis by 8 points.

Here is how the 2016 contest in Michigan looks at this hour, 230 days until votes are counted:

Hillary Clinton defeats Donald Trump today by 11 points, 49% to 38%. Trump is the weakest of the Republican candidates.
Hillary Clinton defeats Ted Cruz today by 10 points, 49% to 39%.
John Kasich defeats Hillary Clinton today by 5 points, 46% to 41%. Kasich is the strongest of the Republican candidates at this hour.

Bernie Sanders defeats Donald Trump today by 19 points, 55% to 36%.
Bernie Sanders defeats Ted Cruz today by 21 points, 56% to 35%.
Bernie Sanders defeats John Kasich today by 5 points, 47% to 42%.

Though neither Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Paul Ryan nor 2012 Republican Party nominee Mitt Romney have asked to be the 2016 Republican nominee, speculation about an unforeseen outcome at the Republican National Convention keeps both names in circulation. Today, in Michigan, SurveyUSA finds:

Hillary Clinton defeats Paul Ryan today by 10 points, 48%to 38%.
Hillary Clinton defeats Mitt Romney today by 13 points, 48%to 35%. 75% of Romney 2012 voters stick with Mitt in 2016; 10% defect to Clinton; 15% are undecided.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 904 likely voters statewide 03/23/16 and 03/24/16. Research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (63% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (37% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Like other polls which have shown similar results, these research findings may be unbearable for Kasich and Sanders supporters. Both Kasich and Sanders face a relentless drumbeat of criticism for staying in the race, and not dropping out.

1 Week To NC Republican Presidential Primary, Before Results from Michigan are Known, Trump Atop Cruz; Ross Atop Rey in Democratic Senate Primary; Burr, McCrory, Cooper Positioned for Statewide Primary Wins

SurveyUSA Operations - 03/08/16 08:00 PM

Ted Cruz may be closing in on Donald Trump in North Carolina, in the Republican primary for President of the United States, according to the latest poll commissioned by WRAL-TV in Raleigh. During the first half of interviewing for this survey, before the results of the 03/05/16 Kansas, Maine, Kentucky, and Louisiana Republican contests were known, Cruz polled at 23%. After news of Cruz’s strong Saturday showing had been digested, Cruz polled at 33%. During the same period, Trump’s support softened ever-so-slightly, from 42% to 39%. Rubio’s support declined from 16% to 11% and John Kasich’s support crept 3 points higher.

When data from all 4 days of interviewing is integrated, the results at this hour are:

Trump 41%, Cruz 27%, Marco Rubio 14%, and John Kasich 11%. 

Trump led Cruz by 19 points during the first 2 days of interviewing. Trump led Cruz by 6 points during the last 2 days of interviewing.

Results of next week’s North Carolina presidential voting may be influenced by today’s 03/08/16 Michigan and Mississippi primaries. Should Trump perform worse than expected in Michigan, that may cast doubt on his inevitability. Should Rubio perform worse than expected in Michigan, that may increase the calls for him to exit the race. Should Cruz surprise in Michigan, that may make him an acceptable Trump alternative to some Republican primary voters who have not yet returned a ballot in the Tarheel State.

At this hour, among voters who say they are a member of the Tea Party, Cruz edges Trump, 42% to 40%. Among NC evangelicals, which should be Cruz’s strong suit, Trump prevails 42% to 31%. Among “very conservative” Republican primary voters, Trump and Cruz are bunched, 39% to 37%. Among “moderates,” Rubio moves into 2nd place behind Trump, Kasich moves into 3rd place, and Cruz falls to 4th. Trump leads in all 4 regions of the state. Cruz runs 2nd in all 4 regions of the state. Trump leads Cruz by 19 points among those with a high school education. Trump leads Cruz by 23 points among primary voters earning less than $40,000 a year. The contest is closer among college educated voters, where Cruz draws to within 5 points of Trump.

Trump leads by 7 among pro-life primary voters and leads by 32 points among pro-choice primary voters. Trump leads by 24 points among those who almost never attend church. Trump leads by just 5 points among those who attend church regularly.

In a Democratic Primary for President today, Hillary Clinton defeats Bernie Sanders 57% to 34%. Sanders’ support is young; he leads Clinton nearly 2:1 among those 18 to 34. But among seniors, Clinton buries Sanders by nearly 4:1. Clinton leads by 8 points among white Democrats, and leads by 54 points among black Democrats. Momentum is with Clinton. During the first half of the field period, Clinton led Sanders by 12. During the 2nd half of the field period, Clinton led Sanders by 46 points. About 1/6th of the interviews for this survey were completed after the 03/06/16 CNN Democratic Presidential Debate in Flint MI.

In a Republican primary today for US Senator from North Carolina, incumbent Richard Burr defeats Greg Brannon 3:1. Burr polls above 40% in every region of the state. 27% of likely Republican primary voters say they are undecided, even though voting is well underway.

In a Democratic primary today for US Senator, Deborah Ross leads her nearest challenger, Chris Rey, by 25 points. 44% of likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided in this contest, so any outcome is conceivably possible. Among those Democrats who have decided, Ross leads materially among both whites and blacks. Ross’s support is strongest in greater Raleigh, weakest in Southern and Coastal Carolina. Rey challenges Ross among primary voters with a high school education, but Ross distances herself, with a 5:1 advantage, among college educated primary voters.

In a Republican primary for NC Governor today, incumbent Pat McCrory sails to an easy win. In a Democratic primary for Governor, Roy Cooper is well positioned to defeat Ken Spaulding, though 30% of likely Democratic primary voters say they are undecided in the contest.

“For” leads “Against” on the Connect NC bond referendum on the primary election ballot. 45% of voters today support the measure, 18% oppose, 36% are not certain how they will vote on Connect NC.

Job approvals:

Barack Obama, Minus 10 …… 43% of NC registered voters approve of the job Obama is doing as President, 53% disapprove.
Pat McCrory, Minus 6 …… 40% of NC registered voters approve of the job McCrory is doing as Governor, 46% disapprove.
Richard Burr, Minus 9 …… 34% of registered voters approve of the job Burr is doing as U.S. Senator, 43% disapprove.
Roy Cooper, Plus 18 …… 46% of registered voters approve of the job Cooper is doing as NC Attorney General, 28% disapprove.
NC State Legislature, Minus 25 …… 28% of registered voters approve of the job the legislature is doing, 53% disapprove.
US Congress, Minus 65 …… 12% of registered voters approve of the job the U.S. Congress is doing, 77% disapprove.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,000 North Carolina adults 03/04/16 through 03/07/16. Of the adults, 1,800 were registered to vote. Of those registered to vote, SurveyUSA identified 1,555 as likely to vote in the 03/15/16 primary election, with 688 likely to vote in the 03/15/16 Republican primary, and 687 likely to vote in the 03/15/16 Democratic primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (70% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Random-digit-dial sample provided by SSI. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (30% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. All interviews for this survey were completed after the 03/03/16 Fox News “small hands” debate in Detroit.

Time-Lapse Photography Into the State of Florida 03/15/16 Republican Primary; Cruz Moving Up, Rubio Trending Down, Trump Impervious & Still in the Lead

SurveyUSA Operations - 03/08/16 07:46 AM

7 days till votes are counted in the Florida Republican Primary for President of the United States, Donald Trump appears to have an advantage over Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, according to SurveyUSA research conducted exclusively for TV station Bay News 9 in Tampa. But: a fluid electorate makes it difficult to freeze-frame the state of the race in a way that will “hold” until Election Day.

At this hour, it’s Trump 42%, favorite-son Rubio 22%, Cruz 17%. But, there is inter-day play that is worth introspection. On the first day of interviewing (Friday 03/04/16, after the Thursday night Fox News “small hands” Republican Party Debate in Detroit), Ted Cruz had 13% of the primary vote. On the last day of interviewing (Sunday 03/06/16, after the results of the Saturday caucuses in Kansas, Maine and Kentucky were known, and after the results of the Louisiana primary were known), Cruz had 21% of the primary vote, a specific upward trajectory. On the first day of interviewing, Rubio had 25% of the primary vote, compared to 20% on the last day of interviewing. A downward trajectory, though less pronounced. Trump polled at 43%, 41%, and 44% over the 3 days of interviewing for the survey — no particular trajectory, and no evidence that Trump has yet been wounded by relentless anti-Trump advertising in the Sunshine State.

Results of today’s 03/08/16 Michigan and Mississippi primaries will color Florida results, one week later. If Cruz has an unexpectedly strong showing in Michigan and/or Mississippi, and is able to maintain 24 or 48 hours of uninterrupted media spotlight, he may carry that momentum into Florida and eclipse Rubio. If Rubio has a comparatively weak showing in Michigan and/or Mississippi, he may lose critical support back home. Should Trump’s support collapse in Michigan and Mississippi, that may dampen Trump’s perceived inevitability, and cut into his Florida base, making the outcome far closer than it herein appears. In the end, however, whether Trump wins the Florida Primary by 3 votes or 300,000 votes, and whether Cruz or Rubio finishes in 2nd place, Trump wins the same number of convention delegates, 99, and Cruz and Rubio both get zero. Trump has 84 more delegates than Cruz at this hour. Trump has 233 more delegates than Rubio.

For now, among Republican primary voters who tell SurveyUSA that they have already returned a ballot, it’s Trump 47%, Rubio 29%, Cruz 10%. Among voters who have not yet returned a ballot but who promise to do so before polling places close, it’s Trump 41%, Rubio 20%, Cruz 19%.

Rubio leads Trump 38% to 27% among Cubans who plan to vote in the Republican Primary. Trump leads Rubio by 15 points among non-Cuban Hispanics. Trump polls above 40% in 4 regions of the state — NW FL, NE FL, Central FL, and SW FL. Trump is at 37% in SE FL, with Rubio on his heels at 31%. Trump leads Cruz by 10 points among voters who are “very conservative.” Trump leads Cruz by 34 points among voters who are “moderate.” Rubio’s support is strong among GOP primary voters who do not own a gun and who are not members of the Tea Party. John Kasich, who polls at 10% in a GOP primary “today,” does best among women, seniors, pro-choice voters and moderates.

In a Democratic primary today, Hillary Clinton defeats Bernie Sanders 2:1. Support for Sanders declined from 33% on the first day of interviewing to 25% on the last day of interviewing.

Looking ahead to the 11/08/16 general election, Florida’s critical 29 electoral college votes are very much in play. Clinton today runs effectively even with any of the top 3 Republicans. At this hour, it’s:

* Trump 45%, Clinton 44%. Clinton gets 82% of the black vote, 61% of the Non-Cuban Hispanic vote.
* Clinton 45%, Rubio 44%. Clinton gets 82% of the black vote, 58% of the Non-Cuban Hispanic vote.
* Clinton 46%, Cruz 44%. Clinton gets 79% of the black vote, 64% of the Non-Cuban Hispanic vote.

In the 08/30/16 Republican primary for U.S. Senator from Florida, “other” and “undecided” today combine for 50% of the likely vote — so all named candidates have significant opportunity to move up or down. Today, it’s David Jolly at 18%, Ron DeSantis at 11%, Carlos Lopez-Cantera at 9%, Todd Wilcox at 7%, Ilya Katz at 4%. Among those Republicans likely to vote in the Senate primary, 56% say they would definitely vote for Ben Carson, should Carson enter the race.

In the 08/30/16 Democratic primary for U.S. Senator, “other” and “undecided” combine for 46% of the vote, leaving plenty of room for all 3 named candidates — Patrick Murphy who polls at 27%, Alan Grayson who polls at 16%, and Pam Keith who polls at 11%.

Like U.S. Senate races in other states in 2016, Florida’s Senate fight will have national significance, and will likely see millions of outside dollars poured into it, as both Democrats and Republicans seek to control the Upper Chamber in the next Congress so as to steer the confirmation hearings for Justice Antonin Scalia’s replacement. The open Florida Senate seat is currently held by Republican Rubio, who is not seeking re-election.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,450 state of Florida adults 03/04/16 through 03/06/16. Of the adults, 2,204 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 1,961 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election, 937 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 03/15/16 Republican presidential primary, 823 were determined to be likely to vote in the 03/15/16 Democratic presidential primary, 724 were determined to be likely to vote in the 08/30/16 Republican primary for US Senator, and 592 were determined to be likely to vote in the 08/30/16 Democratic primary for US Senator. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (64% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (36% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, or other electronic device. Most of the interviews for this survey were completed before the results of the Puerto Rico Republican Primary were known; Rubio won decisively there. All interviews for this survey were completed before the 03/06/16 CNN Democratic Presidential Debate in Flint MI. Mitt Romney won the Florida Republican Presidential Primary in 2012 with 46% of the vote. Democrat Barack Obama carried Florida in the 2008 and 2012 general elections. Republican George W Bush carried Florida in 2004 and was awarded Florida by the Supreme Court of the United States in 2000.

11 Alive Atlanta Exclusive Poll: 5 Days to Georgia Presidential Primary, Trump Pulls Away from GOP Field; Clinton Buries Sanders; In November Head-To-Head General Election Match-Ups, Republican Nominee, Whomever It Is, Beats Either Democrat; 16 Peach State Electoral Votes Stay Red

SurveyUSA Operations - 02/25/16 05:00 PM

Donald Trump consolidates his gains from Nevada, South Carolina and New Hampshire, and marches through Georgia like Sherman’s army, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for WXIA-TV in Atlanta.

Today, 5 days till votes are counted and with many GA ballots already returned, it’s Trump 45% (1 point less than the 46% Trump got in Nevada), Marco Rubio 19%, Ted Cruz 16%, others further back.

Trump is backed by 51% of “strong Republicans,” 47% of conservatives and 46% of moderates. He is backed by 57% of voters with a high-school education, 52% of voters earning less than $40,000 a year, 49% of seniors.

Rubio runs strongest among affluent Republican primary voters and voters in greater Atlanta, but Rubio does not exceed the 25% support level in any voter demographic, so it will be hard for him to catch Trump, barring something completely unforeseen.

Cruz runs strongest among Republican primary voters who are “very conservative” and who are “falling behind” financially. Cruz does not reach 30% support in any demographic group — including evangelical Christians, where Trump beats Cruz 2:1, and including members of the Tea Party, where Trump beats Cruz 5:2.

In the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton defeats Bernie Sanders 66% to 27%. Though Sanders and Clinton run almost even among GA’s white Democratic primary voters, Clinton leads 4:1 among both African Americans and Hispanics. Though Sanders makes a show of it among “very liberal” voters, drawing to within 3 points of Clinton, Clinton is at 65% among moderates and at 73% among conservative Democrats.

Looking ahead to November, Trump and Rubio run slightly stronger than Cruz, but in every case, Republicans win the state in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups. “Today” it’s:

* Trump 50%, Clinton 41% — a 9-point Republican advantage.
* Trump 49%, Sanders 41% — an 8-point Republican advantage.
* Rubio 50%, Clinton 43% — a 7-point Republican advantage.
* Rubio 49%, Sanders 41% — an 8-point Republican advantage.
* Cruz 49%, Clinton 42% — a 7-point Republican advantage.
* Cruz 48%, Sanders 42% — a 6-point Republican advantage.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,650 Georgia adults 02/22/16 through 02/23/16. Approximately half of the interviews were completed before the results of the Nevada Republican caucuses were known, the other half after. Of the adults interviewed, 1,454 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 1,261 voters who were likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election, 684 voters who had either already voted in the Republican presidential primary or who were certain to do so before the deadline, and 501 voters who had already voted in the Democratic presidential primary or who were certain to do so before the deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (53% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (47% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. In 2012, Mitt Romney defeated Barack Obama by 8 percentage points to capture Georgia’s 16 electoral college votes with 53% of the ballots cast.

1 Week to TX Presidential Primary, Trump and Cruz Tied, Rubio in 3rd Place with Half as Much Support; Clinton Laps Sanders; State Divided on Which President Should Nominate the Next Supreme Court Justice

SurveyUSA Operations - 02/24/16 10:06 PM

In his home state of Texas, US Senator Ted Cruz cannot shake businessman Donald Trump and his New York values, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WFAA-TV in Dallas and Texas TEGNA. Cruz’s best shot at a Super Tuesday win looks at this hour like he may do no better than a draw. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton defeats Bernie Sanders 2:1.

In the Republican Primary, it’s Cruz 32%, Trump 32%, Marco Rubio 17%, others further back.

Cruz narrowly leads Trump among Texas’s Hispanic/Latino population, 34% to 27%. Cruz materially leads Trump among Texas’s evangelicals, 42% to 28%. Cruz overwhelmingly leads Trump among those who are members of the Tea Party, 62% to 21%. Cruz leads by 11 points in West Texas, which includes El Paso, Midland and 88 surrounding counties, and by a nominal 3 points in East Texas, which includes Houston and 60 surrounding counties. Cruz leads by 20 points among “very conservative” primary voters.

Cruz overpowers Trump among Texas Republican primary voters who in 2012 voted for Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich. Trump leads among voters who in 2012 backed Mitt Romney or Ron Paul.

Trump leads by 16 points among “moderates” and by 14 points among non-evangelical voters. Trump leads in North Texas, which includes Dallas and 43 surrounding counties, and Trump leads among the least educated Republican primary voters. Trump leads among the most affluent Texans, but Cruz leads among middle-income primary voters. In Central TX, which includes Austin, San Antonio, and 28 surrounding counties, the two candidates run effectively even.

How close are Trump and Cruz at this hour?

Among “Strong Republicans,” Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.
Among “Republicans,” Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.
Among men, Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.
Among women, Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.
Among younger voters, Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.
Among older voters, Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.
Among gun owners, Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.
Among non-gun owners, Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.
Among college-educated voters, Trump and Cruz are effectively tied.

In the Democratic Primary, it’s Clinton 61%, Sanders 32%. Sanders is backed by 58% of the youngest voters, but Clinton is backed by 70% of middle-aged voters and 82% of seniors. Clinton leads Sanders 4:1 among black voters and Clinton leads Sanders by 40 points among Hispanic voters.

Sanders draws near to Clinton, but still trails, among Democratic primary voters who say they are “falling behind” financially. But Clinton overpowers among voters who say they are “doing well” financially or “just getting by.”

Of those Democratic primary voters who voted for Clinton in 2008, 86% stick with her in 2016. Among Democratic primary voters who voted for Barack Obama in 2008, Clinton leads Sanders 58% to 33%. Clinton polls at or above 60% in North TX, East TX, Central TX and South TX. Sanders comes close to Clinton in West TX, but still trails her there 48% to 42%.

Texas likely voters are split on whether the current President of the United States or the next President should appoint the next Justice for the Supreme Court. Of those Republican primary voters who say the current President should appoint the next Justice, Trump and Rubio lead, each with 27% of the vote. Of those Republican primary voters who say the next President should appoint the Justice, Cruz narrowly leads Trump, 36% to 33%.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,750 adults from the state of Texas in the respondent’s choice of Spanish or English 02/21/16 through 02/22/16. Interviews were completed after the results of the South Carolina Republican Primary were known, but before the results of the Nevada Republican caucuses were known. Of the 1,750 Texas adults, 1,531 were registered to vote in Texas. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 1,293 as likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election for president, 645 who had either already voted in the Texas Republican primary or were certain to do so on or before 03/01/16, and 569 who had either already voted in the Texas Democratic primary or were certain to do so on or before 03/01/16. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

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