2 Weeks Till Votes Are Counted in CA U.S. Senate Primary, Harris & Sanchez Still Favored to Advance to 11/08/16 General Election; Clinton Well Positioned To Defeat Sanders in Primary, But Starts 10 Points Behind Obama in General Election Fire Fight With Trump
With early primary voting underway, Democrat Kamala Harris and Democrat Loretta Sanchez appear poised to advance to a runoff, ensuring that Barbara Boxer’s U.S. Senate seat continues to be held by a Democrat no matter which of these 2 candidates prevails in the 11/08/16 general election, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV in Los Angeles, KPIX-TV in San Francisco, KGTV-TV in San Diego, and KFSN-TV in Fresno.
Today, it’s Harris 31%, Sanchez 22%. The 3 Republican candidates in the primary — Duf Sundheim at 9%, Tom Del Beccaro at 9%, and Ron Unz at 7% — combine to receive 25% of the primary vote. Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Harris leads at 33%, followed by Sanchez at 21%, Sundheim at 11%, and Unz and Del Beccaro at 8%. There has been little movement in the contest since SurveyUSA began polling the contest in early April. Harris has never trailed. Sanchez has always run 2nd. The 3 Republicans have consistently split the conservative vote; no one of them has ever challenged Sanchez for 2nd.
In the Presidential primary, Hillary Clinton defeats Bernie Sanders 57% to 39%. The contest is unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA poll 3 weeks ago. Sanders continues to lead among the youngest voters. Clinton leads by 12 points among voters age 35 to 49, leads by 34 points among voters age 50 to 64, and leads by 45 points among voters age 65+. Clinton gets 57% of the primary vote in union households and gets 57% of the vote in non-union households. Clinton has majority support among every income group. Sanders leads by 2:1 among 1st-time primary voters.
* Among all California voters, 48% have an extremely negative view of Donald Trump, 30% have an extremely negative view of Clinton, 13% have an extremely negative view of Sanders.
* Among women, 52% have an extremely negative view of Trump, 27% have an extremely negative view of Clinton, 11% have an extremely negative view of Sanders.
* Among strong Democrats, 44% have an extremely positive view of Clinton, 24% have an extremely positive view of Sanders, 2% have an extremely positive view of Trump
* Among independents, 4% have an extremely positive view of Clinton, 20% have an extremely positive view of Sanders, 7% have an extremely positive view of Trump.
* Among strong Democrats, 84% have an extremely negative opinion of Donald Trump.
* Among independents, 41% have an extremely negative opinion of Donald Trump.
* Among strong Republicans, 39% have an extremely positive opinion of Trump, compared to 4% who have an extremely positive opinion of Clinton and 11% who have an extremely positive opinion of Sanders.
* Among independents, 7% have an extremely positive view of Trump, 41% have an extremely negative view of Trump.
* Among moderates, 10% have an extremely negative view of Sanders, 23% have an extremely negative view of Clinton, 46% have an extremely negative view of Trump.
Looking ahead to the 11/08/16 general election for President, Clinton carries California today 52% to 38%, keeping the Golden State’s 55 Electoral Votes pale blue. Of concern to Democrats: Clinton leads Trump today by 14 points. Barack Obama carried CA by 24 points in 2008 and by 23 points in 2012. There is a Gender Gap at this hour: Trump loses California by 3 points among men, but loses by 25 points among women. It is unclear in the 170 days that remain until the next President is chosen whether this Gender Gap will close or open wider. Of greater concern to Democrats: among those who tell SurveyUSA they are paying “a lot” of attention to the 2016 election, Clinton defeats Trump in California today by just 9 points, 50% to 41%. Trump’s negatives have remained constant the past 3 times SurveyUSA has polled California; Clinton’s negatives have increased during that period.
About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,800 state of California adults 05/19/16 through 05/22/16. Of the adults, 1,598 were registered to vote in the state of California. Of the CA registered voters, 803 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 Democratic Presidential primary, 1,416 were determined to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 open, non-partisan U.S. Senate primary, and 1,383 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election for President. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (62% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (38% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. California’s 55 Electoral Votes are 20% of the 270 that any candidate needs to be elected to the White House. For additional California context: John Kerry defeated George W Bush by 10 points in 2004. Al Gore defeated Bush by 12 points in 2000.