One week till votes are counted in the state of Missouri primary for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and state Attorney General, 3 of 6 high-profile contests are closely contested, with the winner too-close-to-call, according to a SurveyUSA poll commissioned by KSDK-TV, Newschannel 5 in St Louis.
In the 08/02/16 Republican Primary
* In the Gubernatorial Primary, Eric Greitens, John Brunner, Peter Kinder, and Catherine Hanaway are clustered at this hour, each with a chance to become the GOP nominee. Greitens, who nominally is in 1st place with 25% of the vote, gets 38% support among Republicans who say the economy is the most important issue in 2016. He runs strong in the Ozarks, strong among middle-aged voters, strong among those Republican primary voters who live in union households, and strong in rural MO. Brunner, at 21%, has a broad coalition, backed by 22% of strong Republicans, 21% of Republicans, 22% of Independents who lean Republican, and 26% of independents. Brunner leads in greater St Louis and ties Greitens among evangelical voters. But: his support is disproportionately young, which in a primary is a concern. Kinder, at 18%, ties Greitens for 1st place among seniors, does well among self-described moderates, and runs away with the contest in Southeastern MO, known as the Bootheel. Hanaway, at 18%, leads among suburban women and finishes 2nd in greater St Louis.
Greitens has a Plus 2 Net Favorability Rating, Brunner has a Minus 1 Net Favorability Rating, Kinder has a Plus 5 Net Favorability Rating, and Hanaway has a Minus 1 Net Favorability Rating.
* In the primary for Lieutenant Governor, Mike Parson edges Bev Randles in a vote today, 37% to 26%. Parson’s support is more to the right: he leads Randles 2:1 among strong Republicans and leads by 18 points among “very conservative” voters. Randles leads Parson 2:1 among independents and leads by 3 points among independents who lean Republican. Randles pulls even with Parson among the most educated Republican primary voters, pulls to within 4 points of Parson among urban Republicans, but Parson leads in all 5 regions of the state, and leads 2:1 among the least affluent primary voters.
* In the primary for Missouri Attorney General, Kurt Schaefer and Josh Hawley are locked in a tight fight as the campaign heads for the finish line. Schaefer, at 39%, has young support, which in a primary can be less reliable. Hawley, at 34%, has older support, and leads by 13 points among voters age 65+. The contest is effectively even among women; whatever advantage Schaefer may have comes from men. The candidates are tied in greater Kansas City MO and in the Ozarks. Schaefer is nominally ahead by 4 points in greater St Louis, leads by 8 points in the Bootheel, and leads by 16 points in Northern MO. This contest could go either way.
In the 08/02/16 Democratic Primary
* Chris Koster will win the primary for Governor. He leads challengers 8:1.
* Russ Carnahan will win the primary for Lieutenant Governor. He leads Tommie Pierson 5:1.
* The Attorney General primary is a jump ball — Teresa Hensley at 41%, Jake Zimmerman at 39%. Gender is everything: Hensley leads by 9 points among women. Zimmerman leads by 7 points among men. Among suburban women, Hensley leads by 15 points. The more women who vote in the Democratic primary, the better Hensley will do. The more men who vote in the Democratic primary, the better Zimmerman will do. Zimmerman leads by 4 points among white primary voters; Hensley leads by 16 points among African American primary voters. Zimmerman leads in union households; Hensley leads in non-union households. Zimmerman leads in rural MO; Hensley has a 7-point advantage in urban MO and a 6-point advantage in suburban MO. Hensley is up 2:1 in greater Kansas City MO.
In the 11/08/16 General Election
Donald Trump defeats Hillary Clinton 47% to 37% today, in interviews completed during and after the Republican National Convention and before the beginning of the Democratic National Convention. Trump leads, as expected, among men. But Trump also leads Clinton, though narrowly, among all state of Missouri women. When just suburban women are examined, Clinton is 8 points atop Trump. In the Bootheel, Trump leads 3:1. In the Ozarks, Trump leads by more than 2:1. In Northern MO, Trump leads by almost 2:1. Only in greater Kansas City, where Clinton leads by 10 points, and in greater St Louis, where Clinton leads by 6 points, does the Democrat make a stand. Trump and Clinton split the Independent vote; Clinton leads by 8 points among moderates. Trump leads 3:1 among Evangelical voters. Clinton manages just a 3-point advantage in union households.
SurveyUSA interviewed 2,546 state of Missouri adults 07/20/16 through 07/24/2016. Of the adults, 2,268 are registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 1,943 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election for President, 773 were determined to be likely to vote in the 08/02/16 Republican primary and 500 were determined to be likely to vote in the 08/02/16 Democratic primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (57% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (43% of registered voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Mitt Romney carried MO by 9 points in 2012. Barack Obama carried Missouri by one-tenth of 1 percent in 2008. George W Bush carried the state by 7 points in 2004 and by 3 points in 2000. All 3 top statewide offices — Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General — are “open” in 2016. There is no incumbent on the ballot: incumbent Governor Jay Nixon is term limited; incumbent Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder and incumbent Attorney General Chris Koster are running for Governor.