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In Ohio, 7 Days Till Votes Are Counted, Democrats Maintain An Edge in Both Contests for President and United States Senator

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/30/12 06:00 PM

It’s Barack Obama 48%, Mitt Romney 45% in SurveyUSA’s penultimate tracking poll of the state of Ohio, unchanged from last week, and barely changed over the past month. 4 times in October SurveyUSA has polled Ohio for WCMH-TV in Columbus, and 4 times Barack Obama has led, though always inside of any survey’s margin of possible error. Obama has never polled below 45%, Romney has never polled above 45%.

As evidence of how important each Buckeye vote is, half of Ohio voters tell SurveyUSA they have been contacted by both campaigns for President. Another 18% have been contacted by just the Romney campaign, and another 15% have been contacted by just the Obama campaign. That leaves just 1 out of 6 Ohio voters who say they have not been contacted by either campaign for President.

Voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot vote 56% to 40% for Obama. Voters who tell SurveyUSA they will vote on Election day vote 50% to 41% for Romney. Independents today break 48% to 37% for Romney. Romney leads today, as he has in each of the 4 polls, on which candidate would do a better job balancing the federal budget. Obama leads today, as he has in each of the 4 polls, on which candidate is more in touch with the average voter.

In an election for United States Senator from Ohio today, Democrat Sherrod Brown edges Republican Josh Mandel 46% to 41%. Week-on-week, Brown is up 3 points, Mandel is down 1 point. Week-on-week, Brown has gained ground among both men and women, young and old.

Voters who are optimistic vote 4:1 for Brown. Voters who are worried vote 2:1 for Mandel. Among voters who believe abortion should be legal in all cases, Brown maintains the same 4:1 advantage he has throughout October. Among voters who say that abortion should be illegal in all cases, Mandel maintains a 3:1 advantage. Union households give Brown a 14-point advantage. Evangelicals give Mandel an 11-point advantage.

Voters today oppose the health care reform law that was passed in 2010, as they have each time SurveyUSA has asked about it. Voters today support the financial bailout of the American auto industry, as they have each time SurveyUSA has asked about it.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 685 adults from the state of Ohio 10/26/12 through 10/29/12. Of the adults, 611 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 603 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot, or to be likely to do so on or before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

8 Days Till Votes Are Counted, GA’s 16 Electoral Votes Remain Red; Charter Schools Amendment Has Narrow Plurality, But 1 in 3 are Undecided

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/30/12 08:36 AM

In an election in Georgia today for President of the United States, Republican Mitt Romney defeats Democrat Barack Obama 52% to 44%, capturing the state’s 16 electoral votes, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WXIA-TV in Atlanta. Romney is at or above 50% among men and women, voters age 35+, the educated and the less educated and voters earning more than $40,000 a year. Obama leads in greater Atlanta, among pro-choice voters, among African Americans and among moderates. Romney is above 50% among those who have already voted, among those who tell SurveyUSA they will vote before Election Day but have not yet done so, and among those who say they will vote on Election Day. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll from Mid-July 2012, Romney is up 2 points and Obama is up 2 points: Romney had led by 8, still leads by 8.

On Amendment 1, the Georgia Charter Schools Amendment, 38% of voters tell SurveyUSA they are certain to vote Yes, 29% say they are certain to vote No, but 33% are uncertain, 8 days till votes are counted, with a significant percentage of Georgians already having returned a ballot. Young voters support the amendment. Older voters, typically the most reliable, oppose the amendment. Whites support by 5 points. Georgia blacks support by 15 points.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of GA adults 10/25/12 through 10/28/12. Of the adults, 628 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 574 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to do so on or before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device. John McCain carried Georgia by 5 points in 2008.

Florida Early Vote Favors Obama, But When Election-Day Romney Supporters are Factored In, Sunshine State is Exactly Tied

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/30/12 08:33 AM

8 days until votes are counted in the election for President, the 5% of Florida voters who today are undecided will determine whether Mitt Romney or Barack Obama get the state’s critical 29 electoral votes, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Among Florida voters who have made up their minds, including a large number who have already returned a ballot, the contest is 47% Romney, 47% Obama.

Romney starts off 15 points in the hole: Obama leads 57% to 42% among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. But Romney leads by 13 points among the larger group of voters who tell SurveyUSA they will vote on Election Day. When the 2 groups are proportionally blended, the candidates finish exactly even.

Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 11 days ago, which was conducted before the 3rd and final Presidential Debate, Romney is today up a nominal 1 point, Obama is flat. Today, Obama leads by 19 points in Southeast FL, but Romney leads in every other region of the state. Obama leads by 4 points among women, Romney leads by 5 points among men. Independents break 45% to 40% for Romney. Moderates break 51% to 41% for Obama. Romney leads among Florida’s white voters, is tied among Florida’s Cubans, and trails Obama among Florida’s other minority groups.

Romney leads by 18 points among seniors, who are the most reliable voters. This gives Romney an advantage heading into the final week of campaigning. If younger voters do not turn out in the numbers shown here, Obama will under-perform this poll.

* Obama has a Plus 2 Net Favorability Rating today, almost unchanged from the Plus 3 that Obama had 11 days ago.
* Romney has a Plus 1 Net Favorability Rating today, which is 3 ticks better than the Minus 2 Rating Romney had 11 days ago.

In an election today for United States Senator from Florida, incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson defeats Republican challenger Connie Mack 49% to 41%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 11 days ago, Mack and Nelson are both up 1 point. Nelson had led by 8 points, still leads by 8 points today. Nelson had led by 5 points among voters age 50+; Nelson still leads by 5 points among voters age 50+. Nelson had led by 6 points among FL Independents; Nelson now leads by 7 among FL Independents.

* Nelson today has a Plus 8 Net Favorability Rating, largely unchanged from the Plus 9 Nelson had 11 days ago.
* Mack today has a Minus 5 Net Favorability Rating, which is better than the Minus 10 Mack had 11 days ago.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of Florida adults 10/25/12 through 10/27/12. Of the adults, 643 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 595 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to do so on or before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

New York State’s 29 Electoral Votes Remain Deep Blue; Democrat Gillibrand Is a Lock for Re-Election to U.S. Senate

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/27/12 10:40 AM

In an election today in New York for President of the United States, Barack Obama defeats Mitt Romney 62% to 33%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WABC-TV in New York City. Obama leads by 3 points among the state’s white voters, but minorities overwhelmingly vote for Obama, pushing him to a 2:1 statewide advantage. Independents break 44% to 41% for Romney. Obama has a Plus 28 Net Favorability Rating. Romney has a Minus 23 Net Favorability Rating.

In an election for United States Senator from New York state, incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand defeats Republican challenger Wendy Long 64% to 22% today. 34% of Republicans and 33% of conservatives cross-over and vote Democratic in the contest. Gillibrand has a Plus 38 Net Favorability Rating. Long has a Minus 4 Net Favorability Rating, with 63% of New York State likely voters having either no opinion of Long at all, or a neutral opinion.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 New York state adults 10/23/12 through 10/25/12. Of the adults, 628 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 554 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their cell-phone, tablet or other electronic device.

Despite Near Fisticuffs, Fundamentals of Sherman-Berman Contest in CA-30 Remain the Same — Sherman on Top

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/25/12 07:37 PM

The dramatic debate between Democrat Brad Sherman and Democrat Howard Berman in the musical-chairs contest to see which of the 2 incumbents gets the 1 seat in California’s newly drawn 30th Congressional District, has had little effect on the polling numbers in the race, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles. Today, Sherman leads by 11 points, 44% to 33%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 1 month ago, Sherman is down 1 point, Berman is up 1 point. Sherman had led by 13, now leads by 11. Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot (early voters), Sherman leads by 16 points.

Both candidates’ “favorability” numbers have gone down as the campaign has heated up. Sherman had been at Plus 33 Net Favorable, now is at Plus 18. Berman had been at Plus 22 Net Favorable, now is at Plus 8. Voters do not see one candidate or the other as more even-tempered. Voters continue to see Sherman as more focused on the needs of Valley residents, unchanged from last month.

In an indication of how the larger political scene has been transformed in the 30 days since SurveyUSA’s last poll of the district, President Barack Obama today carries the district by 22 points. One month ago, Obama carried the district by 33 points. SurveyUSA sees this kind of erosion in Obama’s support in geographies across the country, not just in heavily Democratic districts.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research, which was conducted 100% by telephone: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 registered voters 10/22/12 through 10/24/12 using registration based (voter list) sample from Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 674 had already cast a ballot or were likely to do so in the election for U.S. House of Representatives. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (83% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (17% of likely voters) were called on their cell phones by live operators, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured respondent cooperation, qualified the respondent, asked the questions, logged the answers, and remained on the line until the interview was completed.

In Ohio, Mandel Surges in Senate Fight with Brown; Romney Still Looking to Catapult Past Obama As Final Debate Begins

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/24/12 05:30 AM

In an election in Ohio today for President of the United States, Barack Obama remains where he has been for the past 2 SurveyUSA weekly tracking polls — ever-so-slightly ahead of Mitt Romney in the battle for the Buckeye State’s 18 electoral votes, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV in Columbus. 15 days until votes are counted, it’s Obama 47%, Romney 44%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 1 week ago, Obama and Romney are both up 2 points. Obama led by 3 points last week, leads by 3 points today.

An election today for United States Senator from Ohio is too-close-to-call. Democrat Sherrod Brown today is at 43%, Republican Josh Mandel is at 42%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 1 week ago, Brown is flat, Mandel is up 4 points. Brown had led by 5, now leads by 1. The week-on-week movement comes from:

Independents, where Mandel last week led by 3 points and today leads by 13 points, a 10-point right turn.
Union households, where last week Brown was up 14 points and today he is up 5 points, a 9-point right turn.
Middle-income voters, where Brown had led by 16 points, and today is tied, a 16-point right turn.
Men, where last week Mandel was at 42% and today he is at 47%.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 725 state of Ohio adults 10/20/12 through 10/22/12. Of the adults, 625 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 609 were determined by SurveyUSA to have either already voted or to be certain to do so before the 11/06/12 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (76% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (24% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. All interviews were conducted after the 2nd Presidential debate and before the 3rd Presidential debate. The party composition of SurveyUSA’s 10/15/12 poll was 32% Republican, 39% Democrat. The party composition of today’s 10/22/12 poll is 32% Republican, 39% Democrat.

In MN-02, Incumbent Republican Kline Atop DFL Challenger Obermueller

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/23/12 02:40 PM

In an election for U.S. House of Representatives from Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District today, 18 days until votes are counted, incumbent Republican John Kline leads DFL challenger Mike Obermueller 49% to 41%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities. Kline’s entire advantage comes from men. The contest is tied among women. Obermeuller ties Kline among voters age 50+, who are the most reliable voters. Kline leads among voters under age 50, who are sometimes less reliable voters. Independents break by 13 points for Kline. Moderates break by 7 points for Obermueller.

Kline has a Plus 21 Net Favorability rating.
Obermueller has a Plus 13 Net Favorability rating.
By 43% to 33%, voters say Kline will do more to bring jobs to the district.
By a narrow 40% to 38% margin, voters say Kline will do more to protect Medicare.
By a narrow 37% to 35% margin, voters say Kline is stronger on education issues.
President Obama carries the district 48% to 44% in an election today.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 registered voters from Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District 10/17/12 and 10/18/12 using registration based (voter list) sample from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 565 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were called on their cell phones by live operators, who hand-dialed the phone, qualified the respondent, secured the respondent’s cooperation, conducted the interview, logged the respondent’s answers, and remained on the phone until the conclusion of the interview.

In Washington State’s 1st Congressional District, Teeter-Totter Tips Ever-So-Slightly to Democrat DelBene

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/23/12 02:39 PM

16 Days till votes are counted in Washington state, Democrat Suzan DelBene may have a slight advantage over Republican John Koster, in a fight for the open seat in the 1st Congressional District, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KING5-TV in Seattle. Today, it’s DelBene 47%, Koster 44%, within the survey’s possible sources of error, but a clear indication that DelBene has gained ground on Koster. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 5 weeks ago, DelBene is up 5 points, Koster is down 2 points. Koster had led by 4 points, now trails by 3, a 7-point swing to the Democrat. To see a graphical representation of the teeter-totter, click here to open SurveyUSA’s interactive tracking graph.

Koster holds 88% of Republicans. DelBene holds 86% of Democrats. Independents split. DelBene’s narrow advantage comes from moderates, where she leads by 21 points. Koster leads among those who do not have a 4-year college degree. DelBene leads among those with a 4-year college degree. Though voters today still cite the economy as the most important issue, social issues have increased in importance, compared to 5 weeks ago. Today, 25% of voters say social issues are most important, up from 17%. This benefits DelBene.

DelBene has a Plus 7 Net Favorability Rating today. Compared to SurveyUSA’s poll 5 weeks ago, DelBene has improved from a Minus 6, a 13-point gain. Koster has a Plus 6 Net Favorability Rating today. Compared to SurveyUSA’s poll 5 weeks ago, Koster has gone down, from a Plus 14, largely as a result of his unfavorable numbers being driven up.

By 47% to 39%, voters say DelBene better reflects their views on social issues. This is an 8-point gain for DelBene.
By 44% to 41%, voters today say Koster better reflects their position on economic issues. This is a 3-point gain for DelBene.
By 44% to 40%, voters say DelBene better identifies with the concerns of ordinary people. This is a 5-point gain for DelBene.
By 39% to 36%, voters say DelBene better represents the interests of the high-tech industry. This is a 6-point gain for DelBene.
By 46% to 31%, voters say Koster better represents the interests of rural voters. This is 4-point gain for DelBene.
By 50% to 42%, Republican Rob McKenna carries the district in a vote for Governor today. This is a 2-point gain for McKenna compared to 5 weeks ago.
By 48% to 45%, Barack Obama carries the district in a vote for President today. This is a 3-point improvement for Obama compared to 5-weeks ago.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 registered voters from Washington’s 1st Congressional District using registration based (voter list) sample from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 610 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot, or to be be likely to do so before the 11/06/12 deadline. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were called on their cellphones by live operators, who hand-dialed the phones, qualified the respondent, secured the respondent’s cooperation, conducted the interview, logged the respondent’s answers, and remained on the line until the interview was completed. The U.S. House seat in Washington’s newly drawn 1st district is open; Democrat Jay Inslee resigned to run for Governor.

In CT Fight for Lieberman Senate Seat, Democrat Murphy Narrowly Atop Republican McMahon, 16 Days till Votes are Counted

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/23/12 07:02 AM

In an election for United States Senator from Connecticut today, 10/22/12, Democrat Chris Murphy is at 47% to Linda McMahon’s 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WABC-TV in New York City. The seat is open, and one that Republicans need to pick-up in order to take control of the U.S. Senate.

Murphy’s advantage comes entirely from CT minorities: the contest is tied among white voters.
Murphy’s advantage comes entirely from high school educated voters. The contest is tied among those with at least some college education.
Murphy leads among voters earning less than $80,000 a year; McMahon leads among voters earning more than $80,000.
Murphy leads in Fairfield and Hartford counties, McMahon leads in New Haven County.
Independents break 5:4 Republican, but that is offset by Moderates, who break 5:4 Democrat.
Murphy benefits from a 25-point gender gap: he leads by 16 points among women, which offsets McMahon’s 9-point lead among men.
Murphy leads among the youngest and oldest voters. McMahon leads among middle-aged voters.
Both candidates are disliked. Murphy has a Minus 9 Net Favorability. McMahon has a Minus 10 Net Favorability.

In an election for President of the United States today, Connecticut’s 7 electoral votes remain safely blue: Barack Obama defeats Mitt Romney 53% to 40%. Obama leads in every age group and has a 25-point advantage among CT women. 18% of CT’s few Republicans cross-over and vote Democratic in the contest for President.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of CT adults 10/19/12 through 10/21/12. Of the adults, 637 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 575 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (79% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (21% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

Independents in CA Call 3rd Debate a Draw; Even After 3 Spirited Sessions, 5% in CA Remain Undecided

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/23/12 02:00 AM

Barack Obama and Mitt Romney dueled to a draw among California’s Independent voters in tonight’s 3rd and final presidential debate, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted immediately after the debate ended. Among all California debate watchers:

58% say Barack Obama was the clear winner.
35% say Mitt Romney was the clear winner.
7% say there was no clear winner.

California is a “blue” state, so it is not a surprise that Obama would be the winner among all Californians. That is why it’s important to examine just what Independent voters say, since they are the closest thing to “neutral” voters available to interview. Among California’s Independent voters, the scoring was close enough to be called a draw: 47% of CA Independents see Obama as the clear winner, 44% of CA Independents see Romney as the clear winner. Democrats by 8:1 score it for Obama. Republicans by 3:1 score it for Romney.

Of those Californians who have now watched all 3 presidential debates, 94% have made up their mind who they will vote for, but 5% tell SurveyUSA that after all is said and done, they are still, at this hour, undecided.

800 California adults were interviewed 10/22/12. Of them, 591 watched tonight’s debate. 511 watched all 3 debates. SurveyUSA California research conducted for KABC-TV in Los Angeles, KPIX-TV in San Francisco, KGTV-TV in San Diego, and KFSN-TV in Fresno.

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