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Even in Solid-Blue California, With More Democrats Watching, Romney Is Clear Winner of 1st Presidential Debate

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/04/12 06:54 AM

Immediately following tonight’s presidential debate between Republican Mitt Romney and Democrat Barack Obama, SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 California adults, of whom 869 watched the debate. California is a ‘Blue’ state and not surprisingly in California, significantly more Democrats watched the debate than Republicans. Given that, it is particularly striking to find:

48% say Romney was the clear winner.
34% say Obama was the clear winner.
18% say there was no clear winner.

Men by 24 points say Romney was the clear winner.
Middle-income viewers by 27 points say Romney was the clear winner.
Only those age 18 to 34 see the debate as a draw. Viewers age 35+ see Romney as the clear winner.
Only African Americans see Obama as a narrow winner. Whites, Hispanics and Asians see Romney as the clear winner.
Even greater San Francisco sees Romney as a narrow winner. Greater Los Angeles, the Central Valley and the Inland Empire all score it for Romney.

Republicans by 78% to 13% say Romney won.
Democrats by 55% to 25% say Obama won.
Independents, the most critical, coveted and arguably most dispassionate group of debate watchers, say by 34 points that Romney is the clear winner.
Moderates, who typically vote 2:1 in favor of Obama, see Romney as the winner by 15 points.

Debate watchers split on who they trust more on the economy, a significant moral victory for Romney in California.
Debate watchers say Obama was not forceful enough.
Debate watchers (disproportionately Democrats) say Romney was too forceful.
Narrowly, debate watchers say Romney had the best one liner.

SurveyUSA’s California research conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KFSN-TV Fresno, and KGTV-TV San Diego.

Is North Carolina the Last Swing State to Still be a Jump Ball? Every Vote Vital as Obama and Romney Build Mirror Coalitions

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/02/12 08:56 PM

In an election for President in North Carolina today, 10/02/12, three weeks till early voting and 5 weeks till ballots are counted, Barack Obama has a 49% to 47% advantage over Mitt Romney, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WRAL-TV in Raleigh. 5 months have gone by since SurveyUSA’s last poll of North Carolina for WRAL-TV, and in those 5 months, little has changed: the race was then, as it is now, too-close-to-call.

Romney leads among males, whites, Evangelicals, older voters, voters in greater Charlotte, voters in greater Greensboro, and middle-income voters.
Obama leads among women, blacks, younger voters, voters in greater Raleigh, college graduates and lower-income voters.
Republican and Democratic voters offset. Independents split. Moderates break for Obama.
Voters who plan to vote on Election Day favor Romney by 12 points. Voters who plan to vote early, in person, favor Obama by 20 points.
Black turnout here is 21%. If African Americans, who vote 7:1 for Obama, turn-out in smaller numbers, Obama will under-perform these poll numbers.

In the open-seat election for Governor of NC, Republican Pat McCrory defeats Democrat Walter Dalton 51% to 39% today. McCrory leads by 23 points among men, by 36 points among whites and by 20 points among Independents.

In the election for Lieutenant Governor, Republican Dan Forest edges Democrat Linda Coleman 46% to 43% today. Voters under age 50 vote Democratic. Voters age 50+ vote Republican. Independents break for the Republican. Forest has majority support in greater Greensboro and has plurality support in greater Charlotte and Southern NC. Coleman leads in greater Raleigh. The Lieutenant Governor’s seat is open; Dalton is running for Governor.

In the election for Superintendent of Public Instruction, incumbent Democrat June Atkinson defeats John Tedesco 47% to 41% today. Atkinson’s 16-point advantage among women overpowers Tedesco’s 5-point advantage among men. Atkinson leads in Raleigh and Southern NC. The contest is tied in Charlotte. Tedesco leads in Greensboro.

4 times over the past 7 months, SurveyUSA for WRAL-TV has asked NC voters whether North Carolina’s economy will, in 1 year, be stronger or weaker. Optimism has grown steadily over the 7 months. In March 2012, 34% said the economy would be stronger in 1 year. Today, 44% say the economy will be stronger in one year. By contrast, the number of voters who say the economy will be weaker in 1 year has steadily declined, from 19% seven months ago to 9% today.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults from the state of NC 09/29/12 through 10/01/12. Of the adults, 641 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 573 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/06/12 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Cell-phone respondents vote dramatically more Democratic in North Carolina than do landline respondents. In the contest for President, Romney leads by 9 points among landline respondents. Obama leads by 30 points among cell-phone respondents. When the two groups are proportionally blended, Obama leads 49% to 47%, as SurveyUSA reports here. The same pattern holds true in the contests for Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Superintendent.

In Minnesota, 8 Weeks Till Votes Are Counted, Obama 10 Points Atop Romney; Marriage Amendment Narrowly Favored; Klobuchar Sails

SurveyUSA Operations - 09/14/12 04:06 PM

8 weeks until votes are counted, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 50% to 40% in the battle for Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes, incumbent DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar is materially ahead in her campaign for re-election to the U.S. Senate, and an amendment to define marriage is narrowly favored to pass, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities.

In this, SurveyUSA’s first poll of Minnesota since the Republican and Democratic conventions, Obama’s lead over Romney has grown from 6 points 6 weeks ago to 10 points today. The 10-point advantage comes largely from women, among whom Obama today leads by 17 points. Romney leads in Southern MN, but Obama leads elsewhere in the state. Obama holds slightly more of the Democratic base than Romney holds of the Republican base, and Independents break ever-so-slightly for Obama. (Among Independents, there has been a 7-point swing to Obama compared to SurveyUSA’s poll 6 weeks ago.) The real tailwind comes from moderates, who break 2:1 for Obama. Romney trails among the rich and the poor, among the educated and the less educated. There is erosion in Romney’s support among middle-income and upper-income voters, compared to 6 weeks ago.

Today’s release is also SurveyUSA’s first poll in Minnesota since Paul Ryan was named Romney’s running mate. 30% of likely voters say Ryan makes them more likely to vote for Romney, but 34% say Ryan makes them more likely to vote for Obama. 35% shrug when asked about Ryan.

An amendment to define marriage in Minnesota as between one man and one woman is today favored to pass 50% to 43%, though all ballot measures are difficult to predict. Today, SurveyUSA finds: Republicans favor the amendment 4:1. Democrats oppose the measure 2:1. Independents split. The less educated you are, the more likely you are to support the amendment. The lower your income, the more likely you are to support the amendment. An odd coalition takes shape, age-wise: voters younger than 35 and older than 64 support the measure. Voters age 35 to 64 split. SurveyUSA has polled on the marriage amendment before, going back to 2011. This is the first poll that used the actual language that will appear on the ballot, instead of a summary of the ballot language; previous SurveyUSA polls are not apples-to-apples comparable with this one.

In the election for U.S. Senator from Minnesota, incumbent DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar remains the overwhelming favorite, leading Republican Kurt Bills 55% to 34%. 6 weeks ago, Klobuchar led by 24 points, today by 21.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults 09/06/12 through 09/09/12. Of them, 627 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 551 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (77% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (23% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Obama leads by 4 points among voters interviewed on their home phone. Obama leads by 25 points among voters not reachable on a home telephone. When the two groups are proportionally combined, Obama leads by the 10 points reported here. In 2008, Obama carried Minnesota by 10 points over John McCain.

In CA, Half of Those Voting “For Mitt Romney” Are Actually Voting “Against Barack Obama”; 5 Ballot Measures Examined

SurveyUSA Operations - 09/13/12 10:35 AM

In an election for President of the United States in California today, 09/12/12, Barack Obama defeats Mitt Romney and cements California’s 55 electoral college votes into the Democratic column, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV in Los Angeles, KPIX-TV in San Francisco, KGTV-TV in San Diego, and KFSN-TV in Fresno. 4 weeks until early voting begins, it’s Obama 57%, Romney 35%. Of those Californians voting “for” Romney, 48% tell SurveyUSA that their vote is really a vote “against Barack Obama” more than it is a vote “for” Mitt Romney. By contrast, of those Californians voting “for” Barack Obama, just 18% say that theirs is a vote “against Mitt Romney.”

Obama is backed by 72% of pro-choice voters, 71% of Bay area voters, 67% of Hispanics, and 67% of young voters.

In an election for United States Senator from California today, incumbent Democrat Dianne Feinstein holds her seat, is comfortably re-elected, and defeats Elizabeth Emken 55% to 37%. Feinstein leads among rich and poor, black and white, the least educated and the most educated, and in every region of the state.

On Proposition 30 , which would raise the sales tax to pay for education and public safety, 34% today are certain to vote Yes, 36% are certain to vote No, 29% are not certain how they will vote. The measure could go either way. Republicans oppose Proposition 30. Democrats support.

On Proposition 33 , about auto insurance, 15% are certain to vote Yes, 13% are certain to vote No, 72% are not certain. Voters are not yet focused on 33. Any outcome is possible.

On Proposition 34, which would repeal the death penalty, 30% are certain to vote Yes, 46% are certain to vote No, 23% are not certain how they will vote. Whites, a majority of pro-life voters, and a majority of voters in Greater Los Angeles and the Central Valley oppose the repeal. Only the Bay Area and liberals support the repeal.

On Proposition 36 , which would revise the 3-strikes law, 43% are certain to vote Yes, 23% are certain to vote No, 34% are not certain. Hispanics, blacks, Democrats, and liberals disproportionately support. Republicans, conservatives and Asians disproportionately oppose.

On Proposition 37 , about the labeling on genetically modified food, 51% are certain to vote Yes, 16% are certain to vote No, 33% are not certain. Young voters disproportionately support. Conservatives disproportionately oppose.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 750 California adults 09/09/12 through 09/11/12. Of the adults, 619 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 524 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (78% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (22% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. In 2008, Obama carried California by 24 points. Today, Obama leads by 22 points.

In Florida, 8 Weeks Out: Obama 4 Points Atop Romney; Nelson 11 Points Atop Mack; Voter Fraud of Greater Concern than Voter Suppression

SurveyUSA Operations - 09/11/12 06:12 PM

In pivotal Florida, Barack Obama comes out of the Democratic National Convention 4 points atop Mitt Romney, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Romney leads among Florida’s white voters, but that lead is erased by Florida’s minorities: Obama leads by 16 points among Cubans, by 36 points among non-Cuban Hispanics, and by 67 points among African Americans.

Romney leads by 5 points among men, but that is trumped by Obama’s 12 point lead among women. Romney leads in Northwest, Northeast and Southwest Florida, but that advantage is overcome by Obama’s strength in Southeast Florida, and Obama’s comparative strong standing in critical Central FL, where Obama today leads by 6. Romney leads among voters age 50+, but Obama leads by even more among voters age 18 to 49. Party affiliation cancels itself out: Romney holds 84% of Republicans, Obama holds 84% of Democrats, Independents split. Obama leads among those earning less than $80,000 a year, Romney leads among those earning more than $80,000 a year.

Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 8 weeks ago, conducted at a time when Obama attack ads about Bain Capital were airing unanswered, there is effectively no change in the race. Then, Obama led by 5 points. Now, Obama leads by 4 points, a nominal 1-point difference. Obama today has a Plus 1 Net Favorability, Romney has a Minus 2 Net Favorability.

In the contest for United States Senator, Democrat Bill Nelson is in dramatically better shape than he was when SurveyUSA last polled the contest 8 weeks ago. Then, Republican Connie Mack led Nelson by 6 points. Today, Nelson leads Mack by 11, a 17-point left turn. The change is particularly dramatic in Central FL, where, 8 weeks ago, Mack led by 5, now trails by 15, a 20-point swing. Among Independents, Mack had led by 4, now trails by 14, an 18-point swing.

Nelson today has a 19-point advantage among women, and leads in every age group. Just 69% of Republicans and 68% of Conservatives support Mack. Nelson has a Plus 7 Net Favorability today, compared to Mack who has a Minus 12 Net Favorability.

When Florida voters are asked whether “voter fraud” or “voter suppression” is a more serious problem in Florida, 45% (disproportionately Republicans and conservatives) say fraud. 33% (disproportionately blacks, Cubans and liberals) say suppression.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 Florida adults 09/07/12 through 09/09/12. Of the adults, 650 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 596 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (76% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (24% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

Washington State, 8 weeks Till Votes are Counted: Obama 16 Points Atop Romney

SurveyUSA Operations - 09/11/12 07:13 AM

Coming out of the Democratic National Convention, Barack Obama has a broad coalition of support in Washington state, with a majority of men and women, rich and poor, and educated and less educated voters in his corner, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING5-TV in Seattle. Today: it’s Obama 54%, Romney 38%. Obama leads by 26 points among women in, this, SurveyUSA’s first poll of the Evergreen State since Mitt Romney appointed Paul Ryan as his running mate. Obama leads by 25 points in Greater Seattle and by 14 points in Western WA. Romney and Obama tie in Eastern WA. Independents break 4:3 Democrat. Moderates break Democrat by 7:3. Obama leads by 25 points among voters with a 4-year college degree. Obama leads by 18 points among upper-income voters. Little has changed compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 6 weeks ago. Then, Obama led by 17 points, today by 16 points.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of Washington adults 09/07/12 through 09/09/12, using blended sample, mixed mode. Of the adults, 607 were registered to vote; of the registered voters, 524 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the November general election. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device. Obama carried Washington State by 17 points in 2008. 12 electoral votes are at stake in 2012.

In Florida: Early 1st Reaction to Speeches at Republican Convention, Movement Towards Romney Among Persuadables

SurveyUSA Operations - 08/31/12 07:56 PM

Two-thirds of those who watched Thursday night’s speeches at the Republican National Convention already had decided who they would vote for before anyone opened their mouth, but among the small but important group of persuadable speech watchers, there is 2:1 movement towards Romney, according to a SurveyUSA poll of the state of Florida conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa.

1,211 adults were interviewed statewide 08/31/12, after Romney, Florida’s Marco Rubio and Clint Eastwood spoke to the convention 08/30/12. Of the adults, 1,100 were registered to vote in Florida. Of the registered voters, 754 heard the convention speeches. Of the convention speech watchers:

66% did not change their mind.
16% switched from “undecided” to Romney.
6% switched from Obama to Romney.
Adding those 2 together, that’s 22% who switched TO Romney.
10% switched from “undecided” to Obama.
2% switched from Romney to Obama.
Adding those 2 together, that’s 12% who switched TO Obama.
Comparing the 2 aggregate numbers: 22% switched TO Romney, 12% switched TO Obama.

Caution: As expected, those who watched the speeches at the Republican National Convention were disproportionately Republican. This poll does not attempt to measure how all likely voters in the state of Florida would vote if filling out a ballot today. It attempts to measure early movement among speech-watchers only.

Reaction to individual speeches broke along party lines:

79% of Republicans, compared to 35% of Democrats, said Romney’s speech helped his chances to be elected.
12% of Republicans, compared to 45% of Democrats, said Eastwood’s speech hurt Romney’s changes to be elected.

With Ryan, Romney Still Trying to Strike Gold in Silver State; Republican Heller Ahead of Democrat Berkley in Tight Nevada Senate Fight:

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 08/23/12 11:16 AM

In an election for President of the United States in vital Nevada, Barack Obama finishes today, 08/21/12, with a nominal 2-point advantage, 47% Obama, 45% Mitt Romney, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted bilingually for the Las Vegas Review Journal and KLAS-TV 8 News Now. Obama’s edge is within the survey’s possible sources of error and may or may not be significant. Early voting begins in 2 months. In 2008, Obama carried Nevada by 12 points. In 2012, six critical electoral votes are at stake.

Obama has a single-digit advantage in Las Vegas and a double-digit advantage in the rest of Clark County. Romney leads in greater Reno and the rest of Nevada.
Romney is backed by 81% of Republicans, 81% of conservatives, 84% of Tea Party members.
Obama is backed by 82% of Democrats, 83% of liberals.
Independents break 44% to 39% for Romney.
Moderates break 57% to 34% for Obama.
Romney leads among male Nevadans. Obama leads among female Nevadans. There is a 19-point Gender Gap.
Obama leads among lower-income voters; Romney leads among upper-income voters; middle-income voters split.
All interviews were conducted after Paul Ryan was named Mitt Romney’s running mate. Ryan attracts to the Romney ticket as many voters as he repels.
7 in 10 voters are familiar with Ryan’s thinking on Medicare. Of those familiar: 48% support the Ryan Medicare plan, 47% oppose the Ryan Medicare plan.
41% in Nevada have a favorable opinion of Obama, 39% have a favorable opinion of Romney, 35% have a favorable opinion of Ryan.
80% of Romney voters and 77% of Obama voters say they cast their vote enthusiastically.

In an election today for United States Senator from Nevada, appointed incumbent Republican Dean Heller, running for his first elected term, leads Democrat Shelley Berkley 44% to 39%.

Heller has a Minus 3 Net Favorability – 32% view him favorably compared to 35% who view him unfavorably.
Berkley has a Minus 14 Net Favorability – 29% view her favorably compared to 43% who view her unfavorably.
There is a 20-point gender gap. Heller, a man, leads by 14 points among men. Berkley, a woman, leads by 6 points among women.
Independents break for Heller; moderates break for Berkley.
Heller and Berkley are tied in Las Vegas. Berkley leads in the rest of Clark County; Heller leads decisively in greater Reno and the rest of Nevada.
22% of Berkley voters say they cast their vote “with reservations,” compared to 18% of Heller voters.
Voters who are familiar with a House Ethics Committee investigation of Berkley are 3:1 more likely to vote for Heller than they are to vote for Berkley.
Of Romney voters, 87% vote for Heller. Of Obama voters, just 76% vote for Berkley.

Research conducted bilingually, in English and in Spanish; cell-phone and home-phone respondents included: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,200 adults from the state of Nevada 08/16/12 through 08/21/12. Of the adults, 985 were registered to vote in Nevada. Of the registered voters, 869 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election for President of the United States. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (79% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Telephone respondents in portions of Nevada with concentrations of Spanish speakers were offered the option to take the survey in their choice of Spanish or English. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (21% of likely voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone or other electronic device. 80% of the interviews for this survey were completed before comments about rape and pregnancy took center stage in the presidential election.

Latest Nevada poll for Las Vegas Review Journal and KLAS-TV: Obama 47%, Romney 45%.

SurveyUSA Operations - 08/22/12 09:48 AM

Complete survey results here and here.

In Missouri: 54% Call For Akin to Quit Bid for U.S. Senate; 76% Do Not Share His Views on Rape and Abortion

SurveyUSA Operations - 08/21/12 06:00 AM

By 5:3, Missourians say Congressman Todd Akin, a Republican running for U.S. Senate against incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill, should drop out of the race, following comments about rape and abortion made public 08/19/12, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted 08/20/12 for KSDK-TV in St. Louis, and KSPR-TV and KYTV-TV in Springfield MO.

54% statewide, including a majority of men and women, and a majority of those in 4 of the state’s 5 regions, say Akin should quit the race and allow another Republican to run in his place. 35% say Akin should continue his bid to unseat McCaskill. A large majority, 76%, do not share Akin’s views on rape and pregnancy. But it is important to note that 13% do share his views, including 16% of pro-life voters, 19% of conservatives and 24% of African Americans. Akin says that he mis-spoke. But 55% in Missouri don’t buy it.

Missourians are conflicted about whether Akin’s views are widely held. Just 14% say Akin’s views are shared by “most men”; but 24% say Akin’s views are shared by “most Republicans.”

A SurveyUSA poll completed 08/12/12 for these same media clients had challenger Akin 11 points ahead of incumbent McCaskill.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents were included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 500 state of Missouri adults 08/20/12, after comments made by Todd Akin were made public on 08/19/12. This research was conducted with multi-media, blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (24% of adults) were shown, on their smartphone or other electronic device this video of Akin speaking. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (76% of adults), interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer, heard the audio portion of the above video clip. Caution: Public reaction to fast-moving news events can and does change as new facts emerge. At the time these interviews were conducted, many were denouncing Akin, some were calling for Akin to step down, but Akin had not stepped down at the time of release.

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