In Oregon, Much Suspense Over Legal Marijuana, Little Suspense Over Governor and Senate Contests, Where Democrats Are Well Positioned
By the narrowest and most unreliable of margins, Oregonians today back legalizing recreational marijuana, 44% to 40%, according to the latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV in Portland. The ballot initiative, known as Measure 91, has a majority of support only among the youngest voters, age 18 to 34, who often are the least likely to turn out in a mid-term election.
Among seniors, Measure 91 is opposed by 28 points. The more seniors who vote, the less likely 91 will pass. Voters age 50 to 64 support legalization by 13 points, but 19 percent in that age group are undecided. Voters age 35 to 49 support by 11 points. The younger the electorate, the more likely 91 will pass.
Legalization is backed by 66% of liberals, 55% of Democrats, 54% of independents, 44% of moderates. By contrast, legalization is opposed by 72% of conservatives and 67% of Republicans. Measure 91 runs exactly even in greater Portland, 42% in favor, 42% opposed. If the measure passes, it will be from support in the rest of Oregon, where 91 leads 47% to 38% … but with 16% of voters on the fence. Opposition to ballot measures, having nothing to do with Oregon and having nothing to do with marijuana in particular, typically increases as election day approaches. This measure could go either way, depending how the forces aligned in support and in opposition marshal themselves in the three weeks before mail-in voting begins.
In the contest for Governor of Oregon, KATU-TV’s 3rd tracking poll finds striking stability. Today, incumbent Democrat John Kitzhaber leads Republican challenger Denise Richardson by 12 points. In August, 7 weeks ago, SurveyUSA also found Kitzhaber up by 12 points. In June, 12 weeks ago, SurveyUSA found Kitzhaber 13 points ahead.
In the contest for United States Senator from Oregon, KATU-TV’s 3rd tracking poll also finds striking stability. Today, incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley leads Republican challenger Monica Wehby by 20 points, 52% to 32%. In August, 7 weeks ago, SurveyUSA found Merkley up by 19 points. In June, 12 weeks ago, SurveyUSA found Merkley up by 18 points.
Ballot Measure 92, which would require genetically engineered food to be labeled as such, leads by 32 points today, and is expected to pass.
Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 750 adults from the state of Oregon 09/22/14 through 09/24/14. Of the adults, 678 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 568 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. You must credit KATU-TV if you air, cite, or publish these results in whole or part.