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Kentucky Voters, in a Foul Humor, Want to Throw Out Every Member of Congress and Start Over; But Should McConnell Be 1st To Go? Half Say Give Mitch Another 6 Years, Half Say Enough is Enough

SurveyUSA Operations - 154 days ago

Heading into the final weekend before the 05/20/14 Kentucky primary, incumbent GOP Senator Mitch McConnell soundly defeats more conservative Republican challenger Matt Bevin, according to the latest Bluegrass Poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for the Louisville Courier-Journal, WHAS-TV, The Lexington Herald Leader, and WKYT-TV. It’s McConnell 55%, Bevin 35%.

50% of Republicans say Matt Bevin is too inexperienced and would harm KY’s ability to get things from DC, compared to 38% who say that Matt Bevin is the fresh face needed to shake things up in Washington. 38% of Republicans say McConnell has been in office too long and it’s time for him to go, compared to 55% of Republicans who say that McConnell’s expertise and seniority are important for Kentucky to have in Washington DC. 51% of Republicans say McConnell has done too little to stop federal spending, 33% say he has done the right amount. 54% of Republicans say McConnell has done too little to stop the Affordable Care Act, 31% say he has done the right amount.

Assuming McConnell emerges triumphant from Tuesday’s primary, and looking ahead to the 11/04/14 general election, the forecast is cloudy for the Senate Minority Leader, who stands to become Majority Leader should he hold his seat and should Republicans capture control of the Upper Chamber.

Today, it’s even-steven, McConnell 42% vs 43% for his lesser known but well-financed Democratic challenger, Alison Lundergan Grimes. These results are a nominal 3 points more favorable to McConnell than the most recent Bluegrass Poll, released 02/04/14. That poll was conducted of registered voters; this poll is of likely voters. Today, Grimes has built a narrow coalition of Democrats (74% support) and moderates (60%). The rest of her support is below 50% (women 45%, greater Louisville 48%). McConnell holds on because he is backed by conservatives (68%), Republicans (69%), and because where he trails, it is narrowly, and by single digits, such as among Independents, where McConnell is down 38% to 32%. 6-months till votes are counted, even in the face of these poll numbers, McConnell cannot be underestimated. The national Republican Party is not prepared to lose his seat; every last dollar will be spent to keep it.

Among all registered voters:

* Grimes has a Plus 14 Job Approval as KY Secretary of State: 46% approve of the job she’s doing, 32% disapprove.

* McConnell has a Minus 22 Job Approval as KY’s senior Senator: 34% approve of the job he’s doing, 56% disapprove.

* Grimes favorability is Plus 8 (35% view her favorably, 27% view her unfavorably).

* McConnell’s favorability is Minus 20 (29% favorable, 49% unfavorable).

* Bevin’s favorability is Minus 3 (22% favorable, 25% unfavorable).

* President Barack Obama’s favorability in KY is Minus 28 (29% favorable, 57% unfavorable).

69% of registered voters say the USA is off on the wrong track, compared to 21% who say the country is headed in the right direction. Frustration with Congress is so high that 62% of of registered voters say that if they had the chance, they would vote to throw out every member of Congress and start over. 27% oppose the idea.

KY is divided on a state constitutional amendment that would restore voting rights to convicted felons after they serve their sentences. 52% support a change; 34% oppose.

KY is opposed to using state funds to renovate an arena in Lexington. 75% say Lexington should find some other way to finance the project.

Looking ahead to 2016, in a hypothetical head-to-head match-up, Kentucky voters were asked to choose between KY GOP Senator Rand Paul and Democrat Hillary Clinton. Paul carries KY today, 30 months out, 48% to 44%, largely on the basis of a 25-point Gender Gap. Men back Paul by 17 points. Women back Clinton by 8 points.

 

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research:SurveyUSA interviewed 2,000 state of KY adults 05/14/14 through 05/16/14. Of the adults, 1,782 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 747 were Registered Republicans, and of them, 605 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/20/14 Republican Primary, 1,475 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In South Dakota, Rounds Atop Weiland for Open US Senate Seat; Minimum Wage Increase Backed Big; Republican Daugaard a Shoo-In for Re-Election as Governor; Voters Not Yet Focused on Measure 17

SurveyUSA Operations - 159 days ago

In an election today 05/12/14 for the open United States Senate seat in South Dakota, Republican Mike Rounds defeats Democrat Rick Weiland 44% to 30%, with former Republican Larry Pressler, running now as an Independent, at 17%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSFY-TV in Sioux Falls, KOTA-TV in Rapid City and the Aberdeen American News. There is much to examine in this survey that covers the South Dakota political landscape, but let’s focus first on the Senate Race.

6 months to Election Day, in a contest that could help determine whether Republicans take control of the US Senate in 2014, Rounds holds 72% of the Republican base, compared to Weiland, who holds 59% of the Democratic base. Pressler appears to hurt the Democrat Weiland, taking 17% of the Democratic vote, compared to taking 12% of the Republican vote. Pressler gets 31% of the independent vote. Rounds has a slight advantage among the remaining independents, 33% to 25%.

Rounds leads by 19 points among men and by 10 points among women. Rounds leads by 24 points among voters under age 50, and by 9 points among voters age 50+. An overwhelming number of South Dakotans say that either the economy or health care is the most important issue in their vote for Senate, and Rounds leads decisively among both those voters focused on the economy and those focused on health care. Upper income voters prefer Rounds 2:1. Weiland makes a comparatively stronger showing among lower-income voters, but still trails there 37% to 33%. White voters vote Republican. Native Americans vote Democratic.

Rounds is viewed favorably by 45% of likely voters, unfavorably by 35%, for a Plus 10 Net Favorability Rating. Rounds is viewed favorably by 65% of Republicans, unfavorably by 53% of Democrats.
Weiland is viewed favorably by 33% of likely voters, unfavorably by 19%, for a Plus 14 Net Favorability Rating. 51% of Democrats view Weiland favorably, but among Republicans, 36% are neutral on Weiland, compared to 28% who see him unfavorably.
Larry Pressler is viewed favorably by 29%, unfavorably by 27%, for a Plus 2 . Pressler is viewed favorably by 24% of conservatives, 33% of moderates and 37% of liberals. Pressler is viewed unfavorably by 31% of Republicans and 24% of Democrats and Independents.

In the contest for Governor, incumbent Republican Dennis Daugaard defeats Democrat Susan Wismer by 33 points and defeats Democrat Joe Lowe by 36 points, in hypothetical head-to-head matchups today. Independent Michael Myers gets 11% to 13% of the vote, depending on which Democrat is on the November ballot.

Daugaard is viewed favorably by 50% of likely voters, unfavorably by 19%, for a Plus 31 Net Favorability Rating, an unusually high number possible only with a broad coalition of support. For example: Republican Daugaard is viewed unfavorably by only 32% of Democrats.
Wismer is viewed favorably by 9%, unfavorably by 10%, for a Minus 1 . 81% of likely voters have a neutral opinion of Wismer, or have no opinion of her at all.
Joe Lowe is viewed favorably by 4%, unfavorably by 11%, for a Minus 7 . 86% of likely voters have a neutral opinion of Lowe, or no opinion of him at all.

Two thirds of South Dakota likely voters are not focused yet on Initiated Measure 17, which would require health insurers to include all willing and qualified health care providers on their provider lists. Of those who have made up their minds, 28% are certain to vote Yes on 17, 7% are certain to vote No on 17. Any outcome is possible, 6 months to the general election.

Voters are much more focused on Initiated Measure 18, which would increase the minimum wage in South Dakota from $7.25 to $8.50. Today, 61% vote Yes on 18, 19% vote No. Opposition to 18 is strongest among conservatives, Republicans and upper-income voters.

By 3:1, South Dakota voters support construction of a pipeline through South Dakota that would transport crude oil from Canada to the Gulf Coast. Opposition to a pipeline is strongest among Native Americans, Democrats and liberals.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 South Dakota adults 05/06/14 through 05/10/14. Of the adults, 649 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 504 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (91% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (9% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. In the contest for United States Senator, incumbent Tim Johnson is retiring.

Steady as She Goes: In Florida, Democrat Crist Still Narrowly Atop Republican Scott in Bid to Capture Governor’s Mansion

SurveyUSA Operations - 160 days ago

6 months until votes are counted in Florida, Democratic challenger Charlie Crist maintains a slight advantage over incumbent Republican Rick Scott in the battle for Governor of Florida, according to SurveyUSA’s latest tracking poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Today, it’s Crist 44%, Scott 41%, unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll 2 weeks ago. See the interactive tracking graph, here. Of the last 18 public opinion polls conducted in Florida by any of the research organizations polling on the race, only 1 has shown Scott ahead.

Men and women actively are sorting their preferences out, and there is movement in the tracking graphs as they do so. Today: Scott leads by 12 points among men, Crist leads by 17 points among women, a 29-point Gender Gap. Cubans are today aligned with the Republican. Non-Cuban Hispanics are today aligned with the Democrat. Whites back Scott 46% to 40%, but that is not enough to keep Scott in Tallahassee. Moderates are behind Crist 55% to 30%.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: 950 state of Florida adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 05/09/14 through 05/12/14. Of the adults, 853 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 554 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (75% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (25% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

One Week to GA GOP Senate Primary, Perdue Will Advance to Certain Runoff, But Will He Face Kingston, Handel or Gingrey? Carter Poised To Be Sec’y of State Nominee; Johnson Likely to Advance as Insurance Commish; Deal Atop Carter in November Governor’s Look-Ahead

SurveyUSA Operations - 160 days ago

7 days till votes are counted in the Georgia Primary, some contests snap into crisp focus, others remain blurry, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted for WXIA-TV, the Gannett-owned NBC affiliate in Atlanta.

In the Republican Primary for U.S. Senator, David Perdue leads with 27%, and has led in every SurveyUSA tracking poll to date. Perdue is almost certain not to receive the 50% of the vote needed to avoid a 07/22/14 runoff, so who finishes second in the 05/20/14 primary is critical: Jack Kingston is at 19% among all likely voters, down a nominal 1 point from 2 weeks ago. Karen Handel is at 16% today among all likely voters, up a nominal 1 percentage point. When you examine just the small subset of voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot (aka: the Early Voters, which is sometimes a measure of voter enthusiasm, campaign organization, or both), Phil Gingrey has the most energized base, with 19% of the votes already cast going to him, almost twice his overall forecast vote total of 10%. Handel has only 11% of the votes already cast; her voters appear more willing to wait and vote on Primary Day. Perdue has 28% of the votes already cast, Kingston has 19%. Which of these 4 candidates advances will depend on a mixture of enthusiasm, organization and turnout. The U.S. Senate Seat is open; Saxby Chambliss is retiring.

In the Republican Primary for Governor, Nathan Deal overwhelms 2 nominal challengers and advances to face Jason Carter in the November general election.

In the Republican Primary for School Superintendent, months of campaigning have done little to differentiate 8 of the 9 candidates in voters’ minds. Only Ashley Bell today makes it into double digits, heading into the final week. All others are bunched between 5% and 9%. 38% of the likeliest voters remain undecided, as the campaign draws to a close. A runoff is certain. The sitting Superintendent, John Barge, is running for Governor.

In the Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator, Michelle Nunn decisively defeats 3 opponents. Nunn has 59% today. Her opponents, combined, have 22%. Nunn will face in November the winner of the Republican Senate Runoff on 07/22/14.

In the Democratic Primary for Secretary of State, Doreen Carter defeats Gerald Beckum today, 48% to 20%, largely unchanged from 2 weeks ago. The winner faces incumbent Republican Brian Kemp.

In the Democratic Primary for Insurance Commissioner, Liz Johnson defeats Keith Heard 43% to 26%. Wrinkle: compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, both candidates are down; neither has momentum. Johnson has fallen by 5 points, from 48% to 43%. Heard has fallen by 2 points, from 28% to 26%. Undecideds are up. Who chooses a candidate in this contest, as opposed to skipping over this contest and leaving the ballot blank, will determine the winner. Johnson has to be considered the favorite, even if she limps to the finish line. The winner faces incumbent Republican Ralph Hudgens.

In the Democratic Primary for State School Superintendent, Alisha Thomas Morgan has 20% today, up a nominal 1 point, followed by Valarie Wilson at 17%, Denise Freeman at 13% and Jurita Mays at 10%. A runoff is certain, with Thomas Morgan most likely to be 1 of the 2 who advances.

6 months until the November General Election, a look at the Gubernatorial head-to-head shows Republican Nathan Deal 6 points atop Democrat Jason Carter, 43% to 37%. Libertarian Andrew Hunt today takes 7% of the vote. Carter leads by 11 points in Greater Atlanta; Deal leads by 16 points in Northwest Georgia and by 14 points in Southern and Eastern GA. Deal leads 5:2 among GA whites; Carter leads 5:1 among GA blacks. 82% of Republicans stay with Deal; 80% of Democrats stay with Carter. Independents break 3:2 Republican. Moderates break 5:3 Democrat.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,100 state of GA adults 05/08/14 through 05/12/14. Of the adults, 1,738 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 634 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/20/14 Republican Primary, 549 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/20/14 Democratic Primary. 1,380 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. As with all SurveyUSA election tracking polls, click on the “Triangle T” where ever you see one, to reveal the Interactive Tracking Graphs for that contest.

OH Voters Are Focused on Job Creation, Opposed to Affordable Care Act, Split on Same-Sex Marriage, In Favor of Medical Marijuana

SurveyUSA Operations - 173 days ago

One week to the 05/06/14 Ohio Primary, Buckeye voters are focused on job creation, ahead of health care and taxes, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for
WCMH-TV in Columbus. Job creation is especially driving the ballot-box decisions of lower-income voters, men and middle-aged voters. Healthcare is on the mind of seniors, and Republicans, though for different reasons. Taxes are motivating young voters, conservatives, and voters with children.

Ohio voters oppose the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, 54% to 37%. Whites and blacks, and Democrats and Republicans, see the issue in stark contrast.

Ohio voters support the medical use of marijuana, 56% to 37%, with opposition coming from seniors and conservatives.

Ohio voters split on the issue of same-sex marriage. 43% support legalizing gay marriage. 49% oppose. 48% say Ohio should recognize same-sex marriages that have been performed in other states; 45% say Ohio should not recognize such marriages.

Heading into the final week before the 05/06/14 Primary:

46% approve of the job that Republican John Kasich is doing as Governor. 39% disapprove.
33% have a favorable opinion of Democratic candidate Ed Fitzgerald; 23% have an unfavorable opinion; significantly: 45% have no opinion of Fitzgerald.
46% of voters say Ohio is on the right track; 43% say Ohio is on the wrong track.

In a hypothetical election today for Governor of Ohio, 46% would vote for incumbent Republican Kasich, 36% would vote for Democratic challenger Fitzgerald. In a separate hypothetical election today for Governor, 50% would vote for Kasich if he were opposed by Democratic challenger Larry Ealy, who gets 25%.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 state of Ohio adults 04/24/14 through 04/28/14. Of the adults, 810 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 618 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

Los Angelinos Find Comments by LA Clippers Owner Both Offensive and Racist

SurveyUSA Operations - 174 days ago

A survey of Los Angeles area adults finds recent comments made by Donald Sterling are seen as both offensive and racist, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV. Cell-phone and home-phone respondents were interviewed 04/28/14.

72% of Southland adults say the NBA should take action against Sterling. Of those who say action should be taken, by 9:1, Southland adults say Sterling should be fined. By 3:1, Southland adullts say Sterling should be required by the NBA to sell his team.

While overwhelming majorities of both whites and African Americans see the comments as both offensive and racist, there is less agreement on just what should happen next. 9 of 10 black adults who heard the comments say the NBA should take action against Sterling, as do 2 of 3 whites. Of those who say action should be taken, 82% of African Americans and 56% of whites say Sterling should be required to sell the team.

25% of whites say they will watch fewer of the team’s games, as do 40% of African Americans. When it comes to attending games in person, a similar difference: while 33% overall say they will attend fewer games, nearly half of African Americans say they’ll be going to see the Clippers play less often.

Respondents reachable on a home telephone (66% of Los Angeles area adults) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (34% of adults) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

3 Weeks to GA Primary, Perdue and Kingston Battle to Make Runoff and Right to Face Nunn for Senate; Republican Deal 4 Points Atop Democrat Carter in November General Election Gubernatorial Look-Ahead

SurveyUSA Operations - 175 days ago

3 Weeks till the 2014 Georgia Primary, clear frontrunners emerge in some high-profile contests but other lower-profile races remain a free-for-all, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WXIA-TV in Atlanta. A look ahead to a November Governor’s election shows a tight contest.

In a Republican Primary for U.S. Senator today, David Perdue is at 26%, down 3 percentage points from an identical SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago. Jack Kingston is at 20%, up a nominal 1 point from 5 weeks ago. Karen Handel has momentum, and is at 15% today, up 5 percentage points. Paul Broun is at 13% today, up 2 percentage points. Phil Gingrey, Derrick Grayson and Art Gardner are further back. A runoff is likely. The U.S. Senate Seat is open; Saxby Chambliss is retiring.

In the Republican Primary for Governor, Nathan Deal overwhelms 2 nominal challengers: Deal 64%, David Pennington.11%, John Barge 10%. These results are largely unchanged from 5 weeks ago.

In the Republican Primary for School Superintendent, 9 candidates battle for name recognition and voter share of mind, with any outcome possible. 43% are undecided. The top 5 candidates have between 7% and 10% support levels, just as they did 5 weeks ago. A runoff is certain. The sitting Superintendent, John Barge, is running for Governor.

In the Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator, Michelle Nunn decisively defeats 3 opponents. Nunn has 57% today, up from 48%. Steve Miles is at 13%, up from 11%. Todd Robinson is at 7%, down from 14%. Rad Radulovacki at 5%, unchanged. Nunn is likely to reach the 50% needed to avoid a 07/22/14 runoff.

In the Democratic Primary for Secretary of State, Doreen Carter defeats Gerald Beckum today, 48% to 23%, largely unchanged from 5 weeks ago. The winner faces incumbent Republican Brian Kemp.

In the Democratic Primary for Insurance Commissioner, Liz Johnson defeats Keith Heard 48% to 28%, largely unchanged from 5 weeks ago. The winner faces incumbent Republican Ralph Hudgens.

In the Democratic Primary for State School Superintendent, Alisha Thomas Morgan has 19% today, up from 12%, followed by Valarie Wilson at 16%, down from 17%. Dennis Freeman has 13%, down from 16%. Tarnisha Dent has 10%, up from 9%. A runoff is certain.

6 months until the November General Election , a look at the likely Gubernatorial head-to-head match-up shows Republican Nathan Deal edging Democrat Jason Carter 41% to 37%. Libertarian Andrew Hunt today takes 9% of the vote. Deal leads by 15 points among males; Carter leads by 6 points among females, a 21-point gender gap. Deal leads 2:1 among GA whites; Carter leads 4:1 among GA blacks. Deal holds 79% of the Republican base. Carter holds 71% of the Democratic base. Independents split. Moderates break for Carter by 17 points.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,340 state of GA adults 04/24/14 through 04/27/14. Of the adults, 1,999 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 501 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/20/14 Republican Primary, 435 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/20/14 Democratic Primary. 1,567 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

After GOP Senate Debate in NC, Some Movement Away from Harris, Toward Brannon

SurveyUSA Operations - 04/23/14 07:15 PM

SurveyUSA’s latest exclusive poll for Time Warner Cable News North Carolina suggests last night’s 04/22/14 debate among Republican US Senate candidates did little to dent the momentum of frontrunner Thom Tillis. But other shifts in candidate preference were noteworthy. SurveyUSA interviewed 3,200 North Carolina adults 04/23/14, the day after the debate; 749 of the 3,200 NC adults say they watched the debate or heard coverage of it.

Among debate watchers, a majority, 51%, say the debate had no clear winner. 21% say Thom Tillis won the debate; 15% say Greg Brannon; 7% Heather Grant; 6% Mark Harris.

Prior to the debate, 51% of debate watchers who supported a specific Republican candidate said they supported Thom Tillis. After the debate, 49%. Prior to the debate, 18% supported Greg Brannon. After the debate, 26%, up 8 percentage points. Prior to the debate, 21% of debate watchers supported Mark Harris. After the debate, 13% supported Harris, down 8 percentage points. Who finishes in 2nd place is important in the event Tillis does not reach the 40% of the vote necessary to avoid a runoff.

Cell-phone and home-home respondents included in this research, which was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode: Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smart phone, tablet or other electronic device.

Former Republican Governor Crist Atop Current Incumbent Republican Governor Scott in Race for Florida Statehouse

SurveyUSA Operations - 04/15/14 02:13 PM

29 weeks till votes are counted in Florida, incumbent Republican Governor Rick Scott is the underdog in a fight against (now) Democratic challenger Charlie Crist, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Today, it’s Christ 46%, Scott 41%. 502 likely voters interviewed.

Scott’s support is older. Crist’s support is younger. The older the electorate on Election Day, the better Scott will do. The younger the electorate, the better Crist will do.

Scott leads 2:1 in Northeast Florida, and more narrowly leads in Southwest Florida (which includes the Tampa Bay region). Crist leads 3:2 in Southeast Florida and more narrowly in Central Florida and Northwest Florida. A small turnout in Dade and Broward counties helps Scott. A large turnout in Dade and Broward counties helps Crist. Scott holds 71% of the Republican base, compared to Crist, who holds 80% of the Democratic base. Independents split. Conservatives vote 7:1 Republican. Liberals vote 8:1 Democratic. Importantly, moderates break 7:4 for the Democrat Crist.

Scott and Crist are effectively even among college graduates. Crist leads among less educated voters. Scott leads among upper-income voters. Crist leads among lower-income voters. Middle-income voters split. Scott leads narrowly among white voters; Crist leads overwhelmingly among African Americans, and materially among Asian Americans. Both Cubans and non-Cuban Hispanics lean slightly Republican — but that is based on a small sample and caution should be exercised in projecting those numbers out to Election Day.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: 940 state of Florida adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 04/10/14 through 04/14/14. Of the adults, 799 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 502 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

NC Senate Primary at Hand, But Regardless of Republican Winner, Democrat Incumbent Kay Hagan Faces Uphill Climb to November

SurveyUSA Operations - 04/03/14 11:07 AM

North Carolina Democratic Incumbent Senator Kay Hagan will face a Republican challenger on Election Day 11/04/14. It will be one of 2 Republicans who emerge from a 05/06/14 Republican Primary and 07/15/14 Republican Runoff. The problem for Hagan is, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for Time Warner Cable News North Carolina, no matter which of 5 Republicans she goes up against, she’s in trouble: While it’s premature for Republicans to count their chickens, it’s not too soon for Democrats nationwide to be worried, since a Hagan defeat would flip a seat in the United States Senate from Democratic hands to Republican hands, and could help Republicans take control of the US Senate in the next Congress. (Republicans already control the US House of Representatives.)

First, to the NC Republican Primary: 5 weeks till votes are counted, Thom Tillis, Greg Brannon and Mark Harris are the only 3 candidates in double-digits, Tillis at 23%, Brannon at 15%, Harris at 11%. Others trail. None today appear likely to get to the 40% threshold, needed to avoid a runoff. Tillis’ support is male, older, conservative, educated, affluent and spread evenly throughout the state. Brannon’s support is made up disproportionately of unaffiliated voters, heavily concentrated in Southern and Coastal NC. Harris’ support is younger and less educated. 1 in 3 likely NC Republican Primary voters remain undecided. 433 likely Republican Primary voters were interviewed.

Now, on to the November General Election. 7 months till voting begins, we caution that much can change, but today, SurveyUSA finds that incumbent Democrat Hagan does not defeat any Republican challenger. 1,489 likely NC general election voters interviewed. There are some pollster semantics involved here, since Hagan trails by as few as 1 and no more than 4 points, which means that the Republican advantage may or may not be statistically significant. So we must be cautious not to say that in every case Hagan “trails.” However, in no case does Hagan lead. Here we go:

Tillis edges Hagan 46% to 45% today.
Brannon edges Hagan 47% to 45% today.
Harris edges Hagan 47% to 43% today.
Ted Alexander, who gets just 6% in the Republican primary, edges Hagan 46% to 44%.
Heather Grant, who gets just 6% in the Republican primary, edges Hagan 46% to 44%.
In no hypothetical head-to-head matchup does Hagan get more than 45% of the vote.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,200 North Carolina adults 03/27/14 through 03/31/14. Of the adults, 1,930 were registered to vote. Of the registered, SurveyUSA determined that 433 were likely to vote in the 05/06/14 Republican Primary, and only those likely Republican Primary voters were asked the Republican Primary questions. A larger group of 1,489 likely general election voters was asked about the head-to-head November match-ups. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (78% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (22% of registered voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

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