In an election for President of the United States in Washington state today, 08/03/12, three months until votes are counted, Barack Obama defeats Mitt Romney 54% to 37%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KING-TV in Seattle. Obama’s 17-point lead today is identical to Obama’s 17 point defeat of John McCain in WA state in 2008. The Evergreen State’s 12 electoral votes are safely blue.

This is SurveyUSA’s first poll of likely voters in Washington state; previous 2012 polls have been of registered voters, and are not apples-to-apples comparable.

Obama today leads by 10 points among Independents and by 30 points among moderates. Obama leads by 12 points among men and by 22 points among women. Obama leads by 23 points among the youngest voters and by 7 points among the oldest voters.

In greater Seattle, Obama leads 2:1. In Eastern WA, Obama has a narrow advantage. In Western WA, Romney has a narrow advantage.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of Washington adults 08/01/12 and 08/02/12, using blended sample, mixed mode. Of the adults, 597 were registered to vote; of them, 524 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the November general election. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device.

4 months ago, Google launched its Do-It-Yourself research tool, Google Consumer Surveys (#gsurveys). While it would be unfair to say that Google Consumer Surveys staggers forward, coughing blood, it would be equally unfair to say the launch has been a robust success.

Two problems are key:

1. Not enough publishers have signed up to host the content.
2. Not enough DIY researchers have signed up to generate content for the publishers.

This is the critical push-me-pull-you for Google Consumer Surveys (#gsurveys). Without enough publisher websites, it’s impossible to have enough eyeballs looking at the poll questions to get a necessary cross-section of respondents. Without enough DIY surveys to publish, it doesn’t matter how many publishers there are, there’s no research questions to feed to the waiting eyeballs.

Let’s examine two different Google Consumer surveys sessions that we studied leading up to the 4-month anniversary of GCS launch.

In session #1, we cycled through 227 questions and never once saw a new question. Every question served up to us was either a question we had seen in a previous session or a question we had seen previously in this same session. Take as an article of faith: if Google Consumer Surveys had a new question to serve us, they would have served it to us. The only possible explanation for this is: Google Consumer Surveys had no new questions that it needed to have answered. 120 days after launch, this is pitiful.

Below, we give you the full text of all 227 questions that we saw, so you can see:

• The warp and woof of the kind of questions that DIY researchers are using Google Consumer Surveys to answer.
• The way in which Google’s coders have programmed the queue of waiting questions.
• The extent to which Google is padding the queue with “canned” (aka: “stale,” “worthless”) questions, so that a respondent does not see a dry hole, and so that publishers have some monetization coming their way.

The table below keeps rough track of when we first saw a question appear in rotation on Google Consumer Surveys. Since Google claims that research fielded on GCS can be completed in hours or days, questions that are 60, 90 or 120 days stale are clearly serving no client purpose, though it’s conceivable Google is tracking the answers for some internal purpose.

Chart continues after the jump … More »

In a Republican primary for Sedgwick County Kansas Sheriff today, 08/02/12, five days until votes are counted, Wichita Police Department Captain Jeff Easter and incumbent Bob Hinshaw finish effectively even, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KWCH-TV in Wichita. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 1 month ago, there is no movement: it was tied then, tied now. Either candidate may win. Turnout will decide. Wealthy and educated voters back Hinshaw. Less affluent and less educated voters back Easter.

In the contest for Sedgwick County District Attorney, Deputy District Attorney Marc Bennett has a slight advantage over former Deputy District Attorney Kevin O’Connor. Bennett finishes with 50% to O’Connor’s 40%. Bennett runs strongly among males, older voters, those with a 4-year college degree, pro-choice voters and those who do not own a gun. O’Connor is strong among younger voters and Tea Party members. Among Conservatives and gun owners, groups that O’Connor needs, he is even with Bennett. Two weeks ago, Bennett lead by 18, today by 10. Incumbent District Attorney Democrat Nola Foulston, first elected in 1988, is not seeking re-election. There is no Democrat running for the seat; the winner of the 08/07/12 primary will be the next District Attorney.

Cell phone respondents and home phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,400 Sedgwick County adults 07/30/12 through 08/01/12. Of the adults, 1,208 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 610 were identified by SurveyUSA as registered Republicans and 223 were identified as unaffiliated voters, who may vote in the Republican primary if they choose to affiliate with the Republican Party on election day. Of the Republicans and unaffiliated voters, 458 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot or to be likely to vote before the 08/07/12 deadline. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (94% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (6% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone or other electronic device.

Two weeks until votes are counted in the Primary in Washington state’s newly redrawn 1st congressional district, Republican John Koster is certain to advance to a November general election, but it is unclear which of 2 Democrats he will oppose, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV in Seattle. Suzan DelBene has 17% and momentum today, which may or may not be enough for her to overtake Darcy Burner, who has 13% today.

Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 2 months ago, Koster is down 8 points, Burner is down 6 points, DelBene is up 13 points. 80% of Republicans and 39% of Independents vote for Koster. Democrats split, 32% today vote for DelBene, 25% vote for Burner. Among Democrats, compared to 2 months ago, DelBene is up 21 points, Burner is down 20 points. Among women, compared to 2 months ago, DelBene is up 16 points, Burner is down 2. Among liberals, Burner had led DelBene by 34 points; the two are now tied.

* Koster has a Plus 14 Net Favorability rating. (28 favorable; 14 unfavorable).
* DelBene has a Minus 2 Net Favorability rating (23 favorable; 25 unfavorable).
* Burner has a Minus 10 Net Favorability (19 favorable, 29 unfavorable).

Looking ahead to a November general election, Koster would face a fierce fight from either Democrat:

* Koster gets 44% today to Burner’s 42%.
* Koster gets 42% today to DelBene’s 42%.
* Those findings noted, there is movement on the question of whether a Democrat or a Republican would do a better job of representing the district. 2 months ago, voters said by 50% to 39% that a Republican would do a better job. Today, voters by 43% to 40% say a Democrat would do a better job.

Upticket, the district is split. Democrat Barack Obama leads Republican Mitt Romney 50% to 40% in WA01 today, but Republican Rob McKenna narrowly edges Democrat Jay Inslee 46% to 44% in the contest for WA Governor.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 registered voters from Washington state’s newly drawn 1st congressional district, using registration based (voter-list) sample from Aritstotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 563 were determined by SurveyUSA to have either already returned a ballot or to be likely to do so before the 08/07/12 deadline. This survey was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (80% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (20% of likely voters) were contacted by live operators, who hand-dialed cell phones, interviewed the respondents, asked the questions, recorded the answers, and remained on the line until the interview was complete. The U.S. House seat is vacant; Democrat Jay Inslee has resigned to run for Governor of Washington.

One of the Original 7 question types that Google launched Google Consumer Surveys with was Check Box. Check box is a simple concept: you can check all the answers that apply. Yet as we have observed, Do-It-Yourself researchers continue to misuse the question type, thereby shooting themselves in the foot and throwing away their research dollars. Google addresses the problem with 5 fixes.

1. Google has inserted an italicized line of instruction: “Check all answers that apply.”
2. Google has added the ability for their to be 6 answer choices, including “none of the above.” Previously, there was a limit of 5 answer choices.
3. Google has added a dotted line between the 5 “material” (substantive) answer choices and the “None of the above” sixth answer choice.
4. Google has anchored in the 6th position a “None of the above” option. Even better: Google has hard-coded logic into place such that, if you choose “None of the above” as an answer choice, you cannot simultaneously choose one of the “above” answers. Vice versa, if you choose one or more of the “above” answers, you cannot simultaneously choose “None of the above.” This is a huge step forward, and (however simple it might appear) a big fix to a big problem.
5. Google has edited the blue text at frame-bottom, from “I don’t know, show me another question,” (which is what it used to say), to “Show me another question,” which is what it now says.

These 5 changes, however More »

In the days following the Aurora CO movie-theater shootings, SurveyUSA asked respondents in 6 separate geographies questions about guns, ammunition and the right to bear arms. Research results follow:

Findings show that Americans are of mixed mind:

• A majority support a new law that limits how much ammunition a gun can hold at once.
• A majority support a new law that limits how much ammunition can be purchased at one time.
• A plurality in 5 of the 6 geographies support a new law that bans semi-automatic weapons.
• But, a majority reject passing new gun laws when given a choice between passing new laws and the stricter enforcement of existing gun laws.

Links to complete SurveyUSA poll results.

• Oregon
• New York City
• Los Angeles
• Tampa
• San Diego
• Fresno

No takers so far on our earlier “calling all cars” post that asked if anyone had seen Google Consumer Surveys on websites other than LimaOhio.com? Google is being secretive about how many publisher websites it has penetrated with its Google Consumer Surveys offering. On our own, we stumbled across synonym.com, which attracts about 8,000 unique viewers a day.

This brings to only 4 the number of websites where we have ever seen a Google Consumer Surveys “wall” in the wild.

1. The Lima News newspaper, in Lima OH,
2. The Texas Tribune, a newspaper in Austin, TX.
3. Adweek, a trade publication in New York City.
4. Synonym.com, a reference-desk website headquartered in Seattle.

If you have seen a Google Consumer Surveys wall elsewhere, please let us know.

To see everything we have written about the Do-It-Yourself research tool Google Consumer Surveys, click here.

Google has refined the logo for Google Consumer Surveys and placed it on a T-shirt, as part of its ongoing, surprisingly timid product roll-out.

To see everything we have written about Google Consumer Surveys, click here.

By a 3:1 margin, Philadelphia-area adults agree with the NCAA’s decision to fine Penn State University $60 million, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCAU-TV, NBC10 in Philadelphia. The other three aspects of the NCAA’s sanctions are less popular:

* By 2:1, Philadelphia disagrees with the NCAA decision to vacate all of the University’s football wins from 1999-2011.
* By 3:2, there is disagreement with the decision to reduce the number of scholarships for the team.
* By 5:4, there is disagreement with the NCAA’s 4-year ban on post-season play. Penn State alumni and their immediate families are 10 points more likely than non-alumni to disagree with the post-season ban.

59% say the statue of Joe Paterno outside Beaver Stadium should have been removed; 52% say the school library name should not be changed from Paterno Library. 64% say the university will be able to restore its reputation. Alumni are 21 points more likely than non-alumni to say Penn State’s reputation will be restored.

The opinion research industry has a term, SUGGING, which stands for “Selling Under the Guise” of conducting opinion research. This is considered unethical and deceptive, because it can mislead a research respondent to think that his/her answers are being used for scientific purposes when in fact the sponsor of the so-called research is just trying to sell the respondent something.

Case-in-point: Nikon.

Nikon appears to be using Google Consumer Surveys to show research respondents images of its D90 camera, just for the sake of buying eyeballs, since there is no research question stated or implied. Respondents see only the cryptic instruction, “Choose one.”

But maybe there is more at work here than just the prostitution of research. Why? Well, the Nikon D90 is 4-years old, and was officially discontinued by Nikon in May 2011, 14 months ago. Why would Nikon want you to see images of the D90, when it could have chosen any of its more current cameras, in particular the D3200, which comes in a choice of colors, and would be tailor-made for Google Consumer Surveys side-by-side image testing?

Your thoughts on what Nikon is up to are most welcome.

To see all that we have written about Google Consumer Surveys, both pro and con, click here.